A genetic algorithm-based strategic planning framework for optimising accessibility and costs of general practices in Northland, New Zealand.

Shortage of general practitioners (GP) is a challenge worldwide, not only in Europe, but also in countries like New Zealand. Providing primary care in rural areas is especially challenging. In order to support decision makers, it is necessary to first assess the current GP coverage and then to determine different scenarios and plans for the future. In this paper, we first present a thorough overview of related literature on locating GP practices. Second, we propose an approach for assessing the GP coverage and determining future GP locations based on a genetic algorithm framework. As a use case, we have chosen the rural New Zealand region of Northland. We also perform a sensitivity analysis for the main input parameters.

The Older Persons' Index of Multiple Deprivation: Measuring the deprivation circumstances of older populations in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Existing indices of multiple deprivation exclude indicators specifically relevant to the population aged ≥65 years. In this study we create a whole-of-population cohort of people aged ≥65 years living in private dwellings and who completed the 2013 New Zealand Census of Populations and Dwellings to create an Older Persons' Index of Multiple Deprivation (OPIMD). We combined 22 indicators representing 6 domains of deprivation (Income, Housing, Health, Assets, Connectedness and Geographic access) to establish this individual-level measure of deprivation. We used smoking data from the census to validate the OPIMD and describe the geography of the OPIMD by District Health Board, contrasting these patterns with a conventional area deprivation index. The OPIMD has the potential to inform policies concerning resource allocation for the older population. An accompanying website with an interactive atlas and an online OPIMD calculator is available for wider use of the data. Further research is required to explore associations between the OPIMD and other major health and social outcomes affecting this population.

Epidemiology of dog-related injuries within New Zealand.

AIM: To describe the epidemiology of DRIs in New Zealand. METHODS: A review of Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) new claims for DRIs that required medical attention, and publicly funded hospital discharges identified from the National Minimum Dataset (NMDS) for the period of 1 July 2014 to 30 June 2019. ACC cases were identified using the TE60 READ code and relevant diagnosis or external agency descriptions; NMDS cases with an ICD-10-AM external cause of injury code of W540, W541, or W548 were included. RESULTS: There were 108,324 new ACC claims for DRIs and 3,456 hospitalisations during the five-year review period. The majority of injuries were dog bites (51%, n=54,754 ACC claims; 89%, n=3,084 hospitalisations). The all-age incidence of ACC claims for all DRIs significantly increased by 1.75% per year (p<0.001) during the period reviewed, with a significant increase in claims for dog bite injuries of 1.64% per year (p<0.001), a significant increase in DRI hospitalisations (2.43% per year, p=0.046), and a non-significant annual increase (p=0.217) in dog bite injury hospitalisations. Children aged 0-9 years had similar rates to adults of ACC claims for dog bite injuries; however, children 0-9 years were more likely to be hospitalised. Maori had a higher incidence of ACC claims and hospitalisations for dog bite injuries than non-Maori. ACC claims and hospitalisations for dog bite injuries were more likely to occur in areas of greater deprivation, with substantial regional variation across the country. CONCLUSION: The incidence of injury from dogs in New Zealand is increasing. Inequity exists with substantial regional variation, in higher rates among those living in areas of greater deprivation, and with Maori in the setting of the ongoing effects of colonisation. Children aged 0-9 years are no more likely than other age groups to present for medical attention but are more likely to be hospitalised. Reasons for these disparities require further investigation.

Suicide preceded by health services contact - A whole-of-population study in New Zealand 2013-2015.

New Zealand's rate of suicide persistently exceeds the global average. The burden of suicide in New Zealand is disproportionately borne by youth, males and Maori (NZ indigenous people). While the demographic characteristics of suicide decedents are established, there is a need to identify potential points of contact with health services where preventative action could take place. This paper aims to determine if suicide deaths in New Zealand were likely to be preceded by contact with health services, and the type and time frame in which these contacts took place. This study utilised a whole-of-population-cohort of all individuals age 15 years and over, who were alive on March 5th 2013, followed up to December 2015. Associations between the odds of suicide, demographic factors, area-based deprivation, and the timing of last contact with primary, secondary, and tertiary services were analysed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Contact with a health service in the 6 Months prior to death was associated with the highest odds of suicide. Over half of the suicide decedent population (59.4%) had contacted primary health services during this period. Large proportions of the suicide decedent population contacted secondary and tertiary services in the 6 Months prior to death, 46.5% and 30.4% respectively. Contact with primary, secondary and tertiary services in the prior 6 Months, were associated with an increased odds of suicide of 2.51 times [95% CI 2.19-2.88], 4.45 times [95% CI 3.69-4.66] and 6.57 times [95% CI 5.84-7.38], respectively, compared to those who had no health services contact.

Charting elimination in the pandemic: a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey of blood donors in New Zealand.

New Zealand has a strategy of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 that has resulted in a low incidence of reported coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to describe the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in New Zealand via a nationwide serosurvey of blood donors. Samples (n = 9806) were collected over a month-long period (3 December 2020-6 January 2021) from donors aged 16-88 years. The sample population was geographically spread, covering 16 of 20 district health board regions. A series of Spike-based immunoassays were utilised, and the serological testing algorithm was optimised for specificity given New Zealand is a low prevalence setting. Eighteen samples were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, six of which were retrospectively matched to previously confirmed COVID-19 cases. A further four were from donors that travelled to settings with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, suggesting likely infection outside New Zealand. The remaining eight seropositive samples were from seven different district health regions for a true seroprevalence estimate, adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity, of 0.103% (95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.12%). The very low seroprevalence is consistent with limited undetected community transmission and provides robust, serological evidence to support New Zealand's successful elimination strategy for COVID-19.

The nature of police shootings in New Zealand: A comparison of mental health and non-mental health events.

The use of firearms by police in mental health-related events has not been previously researched in New Zealand. This study analysed reports of investigations carried out by the Independent Police Conduct Authority between 1995 and 2019. We extracted data relating to mental health state, demographics, setting, police response, outcome of shooting, and whether the individual was known to police, mental health services, and with a history of mental distress or drug use. Of the 258 reports analysed, 47 (18%) involved mental health-related events compared to 211 (82%) classified as non-mental health events. Nineteen (40.4%) of the 47 mental health events resulted in shootings, compared to 31 (14.8%) of the 211 non-mental health events. Of the 50 cases that involved shootings 38% (n = 19) were identified as mental health events compared to 62% (n = 31) non-mental health events. Over half of the mental health events (n = 11, 57.9%) resulted in fatalities, compared to 35.5% (n = 11) of the non-mental health events. Cases predominantly involved young males. We could not ascertain the ethnicity of individuals from the IPCA reports. Across all shooting events, a high proportion of individuals possessed a weapon, predominantly either a firearm or a knife, and just under half were known to police and had known substance use. Of the 19 mental health events, 47.4% (n = 9) of individuals were known to mental health services and in 89.5% (n = 17) of cases whanau (family) were aware of the individual's current (at the time of the event) mental health distress and/or history. These findings suggest opportunities to prevent the escalation of events to the point where they involve shootings. Lack of ethnicity data limits the accountability of the IPCA and is an impediment to informed discussion of police response to people of different ethnicities, and Maori in particular, in New Zealand.

Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID-19 lockdown strategies.

This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a "one-size-fits-all" approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.

Predicting Lipid-Lowering Medication Persistence after the First Cardiovascular Disease Hospitalization.

OBJECTIVES: This study analyzed patient factors in medication persistence after discharge from the first hospitalization for cardiovascular disease (CVD) with the aim of predicting persistence to lipid-lowering therapy for 1 to 2 years. METHODS: A subcohort having a first CVD hospitalization was selected from 313,207 patients for proportional hazard model analysis. Logistic regression, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, and boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to predict 1- and 2-year medication persistence. RESULTS: Proportional hazard modeling found significant association of persistence with age, diabetes history, complication and comorbidity level, days stayed in hospital, CVD diagnosis type, in-patient procedures, and being new to therapy. BRT had the best predictive performance with c-statistic of 0.811 (0.799-0.824) for 1-year and 0.793 (0.772-0.814) for 2-year prediction using variables potentially available shortly after discharge. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that development of a machine learning-based clinical decision support tool to focus improvements in secondary prevention of CVD is feasible.

Can a short neuromuscular warmup before tackling improve shoulder joint position sense in rugby players?

BACKGROUND: In rugby the tackle is a complex task requiring joint position sense (JPS). Injuries commonly occur during the tackle and these account for significant time lost from training and play. Simulated tackling tasks have previously shown a reduction in shoulder joint position sense and it is possible that this may contribute to injury. There is growing evidence in support of injury prevention programs, but none so far are dedicated specifically to tackling. We postulate that a brief neuromuscular warmup could alter the negative effects of fatigue on shoulder JPS. METHODS: In this field based, repeated measures design study, 25 semi-professional Rugby players participated. JPS was measured at criterion angles of 45° and 80° of right arm shoulder external rotation. Reproduction accuracy prior to and following a neuromuscular warmup and simulated tackling task was then assessed. RESULTS: In pre-warmup JPS measures, the spread of angle errors were larger at the 80° positions. Adding the warmup, the spread of the angle errors at the 80° positions decreased compared to pre-intervention measures. Two one-sided tests (TOST) analysis comparing pre- and post-testing angle errors, with the addition of the warmup, indicated no difference in JPS. CONCLUSIONS: The neuromuscular warmup resulted in a decrease in JPS error variance meaning fewer individuals made extreme errors. The TOST analysis results also suggest the neuromuscular warmup used in this study could mitigate the negative effects of tackling on JPS that has been seen in prior research. This neuromuscular warmup could play a role in preventing shoulder injuries. It can easily be added to existing successful injury prevention programs.

Interrupted time series analysis on first cardiovascular disease hospitalization for adherence to lipid-lowering therapy.

PURPOSE: We analysed lipid-lowering medication adherence before and after the first hospitalization for cardiovascular disease (CVD) to explore the influence hospitalization has on patient medication adherence. METHODS: We extracted a sub-cohort for analysis from 313,207 patients who had primary CVD risk assessment. Adherence was assessed as proportion of days covered (PDC) ≥ 80% based on community dispensing records. Adherence in the 4 quarters (360 days) before the first CVD hospitalization and 8 quarters (720 days) after hospital discharge was assessed for each individual in the sub-cohort. An interrupted time series design using generalized estimating equations was applied to compare the differences of population-level medication adherence rates before and after the first CVD hospitalization. RESULTS: Overall, a significant improvement in medication adherence rate from before to after the hospitalization was observed (odds ratio (OR) 2.49 [1.74-3.57]) among the 946 patients included in the analysis. Patients having diabetes history had a higher OR of adherence before the hospitalization than patients without diabetes (1.50 [1.03-2.22]) but no significant difference after the hospitalization (OR 1.13 [0.89-1.43]). Before the first hospitalization, we observed that quarterly medication adherence rate was steady at around 55% (OR 0.97 [0.93-1.01), whereas the trend in adherence over the post-hospitalization period decreased significantly per quarter (OR 0.97 [0.94-0.99]). CONCLUSIONS: Patients were more likely to adhere to lipid-lowering therapy after experiencing a first CVD hospitalization. The change in medication adherence rate is consistent with patients having heightened perception of disease severity following the hospitalization.

Geography and patient history in long-term lipid lowering medication adherence for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

In order to determine the role of geographical and patient history factors in long-term medication adherence in cardiovascular disease (CVD), we analysed adherence to lipid-lowering therapy in a primary care cohort based on CVD decision support and linked health systems and census data from Auckland, New Zealand. Two-year adherence was examined for 10,410 patients aged between 30 and 74 with neither diabetes nor a history of CVD. Using logistic regression we found significant variation in adherence by age, ethnicity and being a new therapy user, and in 9 of 86 geographic zones. A large low-adherence 'cold-spot' of 13 contiguous geographic zones was detected through local Getis-Ord Gi* analysis. A set of 42 models to predict adherence was formulated on sets of demographic, geographic and refill history factors. We observed prediction ability to be improved by addition of refill history but not geographical variables, and boosted regression tree (BRT) models outperformed logistic regression.

The geographic harmonisation of Scotland's small area census data, 1981 to 2011.

Previous research in Scotland used a merging approach to combine census boundary data for geographies specific to 1981, 1991 and 2001 to create Consistent Areas Through Time (CATTs) for the analysis of health and social data for small areas. In this paper, we adopt the same methodology to integrate the 2011 Scottish Output Areas to the CATTs. First, we overlaid the 2001 Output Areas upon the 2011 Output Areas to create SUPER OAs, which were then combined with SUPER EDs, which represented a consistent small area geography for 1981 and 1991. This resulted in 8,548 CATTs providing a consistent geography for the 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses in Scotland. We demonstrate the utility of the CATTs by exploring the correlations between deprivation, the proportion of the population who were permanently sick and those with degree qualifications, across the 4 censuses, a research angle impossible without consistent geographies. We have provided a resource that enables users to deepen their understanding of small area social changes in Scotland between the 1981 and 2011 Censuses.

Different domains of deprivation and their relationship with obesity in New Zealand 4-year-old children.

BACKGROUND: There is a relationship between childhood obesity and area-level deprivation. While the New Zealand Index of Deprivation (NZDep) has been used widely in research for the past 20 years, the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) was released in 2017. This study aims to investigate the association between deprivation and childhood obesity in New Zealand and compare measures of deprivation. METHODS: Data from 316 794 4-year-olds in New Zealand undertaking the B4 School Check in 2010 to 2016, a national health and development screen, were analysed. Multilevel logistic regression models assessed the relationship between area-level deprivation and individual-level child obesity. Models were adjusted for age, sex, immigration status, ethnicity, and year. Deprivation was measured using the census-based NZDep2013 (deciles) and the administrative data-based IMD (deciles). The seven domains of the IMD were also considered. RESULTS: The relationship between deprivation and obesity was very similar for the IMD and NZDep2013, point estimates were near identical, and confidence intervals overlapped substantially. Higher levels of deprivation were associated with a higher prevalence of child obesity. The relationship between deprivation and child obesity varied considerably across IMD domains. The education domain had the strongest association with child obesity and had an association with child obesity independent of the other domains of deprivation. CONCLUSION: Overall, there was little difference between the NZDep and IMD. However, the IMD's domains and IMD-1 approach reveal more nuanced understandings of the deprivation-obesity gradient, including the importance of area-level education deprivation for predicting child obesity rates.

Constructing whole of population cohorts for health and social research using the New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure.

OBJECTIVES: To construct and compare a 2013 New Zealand population derived from Statistics New Zealand's Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) with the 2013 census population and a 2013 Health Service Utilisation population, and to ascertain the differences in cardiovascular disease prevalence estimates derived from the three cohorts. METHODS: We constructed three national populations through multiple linked administrative data sources in the IDI and compared the three cohorts by age, gender, ethnicity, area-level deprivation and District Health Board. We also estimated cardiovascular disease prevalence based on hospitalisations using each of the populations as denominators. RESULTS: The IDI population was the largest and most informative cohort. The percentage differences between the IDI and the other two populations were largest for males and for those aged 15-34 years. The percentage differences between the IDI and Census cohorts were largest for people living in the most deprived areas. The ethnic distribution varied across the three cohorts. Using the IDI population as a reference, the Health Service Utilisation population generally overestimated cardiovascular disease prevalence, while the Census population generally underestimated it. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The New Zealand IDI population is the most comprehensive and appropriate national cohort for use in health and social research.

Cardiovascular medication changes over 5 years in a national data linkage study: implications for risk prediction models.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread use of cardiovascular disease (CVD) preventive medications in cohorts used to develop CVD risk prediction models, only some incorporate baseline CVD pharmacotherapy and none account for treatment changes during study follow-up. Therefore, current risk prediction scores may underestimate the true CVD event risk. We examined changes in CVD pharmacotherapy over 5 years in preparation for developing new 5-year risk prediction models. METHODS: Anonymized individual-level linkage of eight national administrative health datasets enabled identification of all New Zealanders aged 30-74 years, without prior hospitalization for CVD or heart failure, who utilized publicly funded health services during 2006. We determined proportions of participants dispensed blood pressure lowering, lipid lowering, and antiplatelet/anticoagulant pharmacotherapy at baseline in 2006, and the proportion of person years of follow-up (2007-2011) where dispensing occurred. RESULTS: The study population comprised of 1,766,584 individuals, representing85% of all New Zealanders aged 30-74 years without prior CVD or heart failure in 2006, with mean follow-up of 4.9 years (standard deviation 0.6 years; 8,589,931 total person years). CVD medications were dispensed to 21% of people at baseline, with most single or combination pharmacotherapies continuing for ≥80% of follow-up. Complete discontinuation of baseline treatment accounted for 2% of follow-up time while CVD pharmacotherapy that commenced after baseline accounted for 7% of total follow-up time. CONCLUSION: In a national primary prevention cohort of 30-74 year olds, one in five received baseline CVD primary preventive pharmacotherapy and medication changes over the subsequent 5 years were modest. Baseline medication use is an important consideration when estimating CVD risk from modern cohorts. It is currently unclear how to incorporate available methods to account for treatment changes during follow-up into risk prediction scores, but this study demonstrates that baseline therapy captures most of the effect of treatment in 5-year risk models. However, the impact of treatment changes on the more common 10-year risk models requires further investigation.

Inequalities in dental caries experience among 4-year-old New Zealand children.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate ethnic-specific deprivation gradients in early childhood dental caries experience considering different domains of deprivation. METHODS: We used cross-sectional near whole population-level data on 318 321 four-year-olds attending the "B4 School check," a national health and development check in New Zealand, across 6 fiscal years (2010/2011 to 2015/2016). The "lift the lip" screening tool was used to estimate experience of any caries and severe caries. We investigated deprivation gradients using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which measures seven domains of deprivation across 5958 geographical areas ("data zones"). Ethnicity was categorized into five groups: (i) Maori, (ii) Pacific, (iii) Asian, (iv) Middle Eastern, Latin American and African (MELAA) and (v) European & Other (combined). We used a random intercepts model to estimate mutually adjusted associations between deprivation, ethnicity, age, fiscal year, and evidence of any dental caries experience. RESULTS: Reports of any caries experience decreased from 15.8% (95% CI: 15.7; 15.9%) to 14.7% 95% CI: 14.4; 14.8%), while reports of severe caries experience increased from 3.0% (95% CI: 3.0; 3.1%) to 4.4% (95% CI: 4.3; 4.5%) from 2010/2011 to 2015/2016. This varied by ethnicity with larger increases in severe caries for Pacific children from 7.1% (95% CI: 6.8; 7.4%) to 14.1% (95% CI: 13.7; 14.5%). There were deprivation gradients in dental caries experience with considerable variation by ethnicity and by domain of deprivation. The association between deprivation and dental caries experience was weakest for Asian children and was most pronounced for Pacific and Maori children. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic gradients in dental caries experience are evident by age 4 years, and these gradients vary by ethnicity and domain of deprivation.

Food swamps by area socioeconomic deprivation in New Zealand: a national study.

OBJECTIVES: A nationwide spatial analysis of community retail food environments in relation to area socioeconomic deprivation was conducted in New Zealand. METHODS: Addresses from about 20,000 registered food outlets were retrieved from all 66 Councils. Outlets were classified, geocoded and (spatially) validated. The analysis included 4087 convenience, 4316 fast food/takeaway and 1271 supermarket and fruit/vegetable outlets and excluded outlets not considered 'healthy' or 'unhealthy'. The population-weighted density of different outlet types in Census areas and the proximity to different outlet types from Meshblock centres were calculated and associations with area socioeconomic deprivation assessed. Spatial scan statistics was used to identify food swamp areas with a significantly higher relative density of unhealthy outlets than other areas. RESULTS: A significantly positive association was observed between area deprivation and density of all retailers. A significantly negative association was observed between area deprivation and proximity to all retailers. Nationwide, 722 Census areas were identified as food swamps. CONCLUSIONS: Access to food retailers is significantly higher in more deprived areas than in less deprived areas. Restricting unhealthy outlets in areas with a high relative density of those outlets is recommended.

One in four major ischaemic heart disease events are fatal and 60% are pre-hospital deaths: a national data-linkage study (ANZACS-QI 8).

Aims: The aim of this study is to determine proportions of major ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events that are fatal and where they occur, in an era of rapidly falling IHD mortality. Methods and Results: Individual person linkage of national data sets identified all IHD hospitalizations and deaths in New Zealand from December 2008 to November 2010. Outcome measures were proportions of people: (i) hospitalized with IHD and alive at 28 days; (ii) hospitalized with IHD and died within 28 days; (iii) hospitalized for a non-IHD cause and died from IHD within 28 days; and (iv) not hospitalized and died from IHD. Three event definitions were used [broad-balanced: IHD deaths and IHD hospitalizations, unbalanced: IHD deaths and myocardial infarction (MI) hospitalizations, and narrow-balanced: MI deaths and MI hospitalizations]. About 37 867 IHD hospitalizations and 9409 IHD deaths were identified using the broad IHD definition. Approximately one-quarter of IHD events were fatal: 4% were deaths within 28 days of an IHD hospitalization, 6% were IHD deaths within 28 days of a non-IHD hospitalization, and 14% were non-hospitalized IHD deaths. Using different event definitions, overall case fatality varied from 24­25% (broad and narrow balanced) to 37­39% (unbalanced), whereas the proportion of all deaths that were non-hospitalized was approximately 60%. Forty per cent of deaths were first-ever events that manifested as non-hospitalized IHD deaths. Conclusion: About one-quarter of IHD are fatal, although the proportion is dependent on disease definitions and age. About 60% of all IHD deaths occur out of hospital, and of these 60% are in people not previously hospitalized for IHD.

Ethnic and geographic variations in the incidence of pancreatitis and post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus in New Zealand: a nationwide population-based study.

AIM: To determine the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP), chronic pancreatitis (CP), and post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (DP) in New Zealand, and the effect of ethnic and geographic variations. METHODS: Data were collected from all district health boards in New Zealand by the Ministry of Health (Manatu Hauora). Diagnosis of AP, CP and DP was determined by the International Classification of Diseases-10 codes. Incidence rates per 100,000 population per year were calculated using incident AP, CP and DP cases as the numerator, and the adult resident population of New Zealand as the denominator. Poisson distribution was used to estimate 95% confidence intervals. The district health board domicile codes and corresponding incidence rates were used to map geographical variations for AP, CP and DP. RESULTS: On average, 2,072 new cases of AP, CP and DP were diagnosed in New Zealand every year. The crude incidence of AP was 58.42 [57.55, 59.30], CP - 3.97 [3.74, 4.20], and DP - 7.95 [7.62, 8.27] per 100,000 population per year. Maori had the highest incidence of AP (95.21 [91.74, 98.68] per 100,000 population per year), CP (6.27 [5.37, 7.16] per 100,000 population per year), and DP (18.23 [16.71, 19.76] per 100,000 population per year). Incidence of AP and DP was at least 1.8 and 2.6 times higher in Maori than New Zealand Europeans in every age group, and incidence of DP was at least 1.9 times higher in Pacific people than New Zealand Europeans in every age group. Auckland/Northland had the highest incidence of AP (135.25 [134.82, 135.68] per 100,000 population), and CP (9.03 [8.60, 9.46] per 100,000 population), while Lakes/Waikato had the highest incidence of DP (20.64 [20.21, 21.07] per 100,000 population) in New Zealand. CONCLUSIONS: New Zealanders have a very high incidence rate of AP, with Maori having the highest reported incidence of AP worldwide. There is a significant geographic variation in incidence of pancreatic diseases, with the Upper North Island having the highest incidence rates of AP, CP and DP in the country. Future high-quality studies are required to understand the mechanisms of pancreatitis and DP in order to develop preventive and therapeutic strategies that would benefit New Zealanders in general and Maori in particular.