Estimating Vitamin K Antagonist Anticoagulation Benefit in People With Atrial Fibrillation Accounting for Competing Risks: Evidence From 12 Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: Patients with atrial fibrillation have a high mortality rate that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. The competing risk of death may affect the expected anticoagulant benefit. We determined if competing risks materially affect the guideline-endorsed estimate of anticoagulant benefit. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials that randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of VKAs to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using 2 methods-first using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA2DS2-VASc) and then again using a competing risk model that uses the same inputs as CHA2DS2-VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for nonlinear growth in benefit. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences varied by life expectancy. RESULTS: A total of 7933 participants (median age, 73 years, 36% women) had a median life expectancy of 8 years (interquartile range, 6-12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables and 43% were randomized to VKAs. The CHA2DS2-VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the competing risk model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% [interquartile range, 4.7%-10.0%] versus 5.2% [interquartile range, 3.5%-7.4%]; P<0.001). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA2DS2-VASc model - competing risk model 3-year risk) was -1.3% (95% CI, -1.3% to -1.2%); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 4.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-5.0%). CONCLUSIONS: VKA anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reducing stroke risk. However, VKA benefits were misestimated with CHA2DS2-VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced when life expectancy was low and when the benefit was estimated over a multiyear horizon.

Retrospective Comparison of Patients ≥ 80 Years With Atrial Fibrillation Prescribed Either an FDA-Approved Reduced or Full Dose Direct-Acting Oral Anticoagulant.

Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) represent the standard for preventing stroke and systemic embolization (SSE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). There is limited information for patients ≥ 80 years. We report a retrospective analysis of AF patients ≥ 80 years prescribed either a US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved reduced (n = 514) or full dose (n = 199) DOAC (Dabigatran, Rivaroxaban, or Apixaban) between January 1st, 2011 (first DOAC commercially available) and May 31st, 2017. The following multivariable differences in baseline characteristics were identified: patients prescribed a reduced dose DOAC were older (p < 0.001), had worse renal function (p = 0.001), were more often prescribed aspirin (p = 0.004) or aspirin and clopidogrel (p < 0.001), and more often had new-onset AF (p = 0.001). SSE and central nervous system (CNS) bleed rates were low and not different (1.02 vs 0 %/yr and 1.45 vs 0.44 %/yr) for the reduced and full dose groups, respectively. For non-CNS bleeds, rates were 10.89 vs 4.15 %/yr (p < 0.001, univariable) for the reduced and full doses, respectively. The mortality rate was 6.24 vs 1.75 %/yr (p = 0.001, univariable) for the reduced and full doses. Unlike the non-CNS bleed rate, mortality rate differences remained significant when adjusted for baseline characteristics. Thus, DOACs in patients ≥ 80 with AF effectively reduce SSE with a low risk of CNS bleeding, independent of DOAC dose. The higher non-CNS bleed rate and not the mortality rate is explained by the higher risk baseline characteristics in the reduced DOAC dose group. Further investigation of the etiology of non-CNS bleeds and mortality is warranted.

Drug Interactions Affecting Oral Anticoagulant Use.

Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are medications commonly used in patients with atrial fibrillation and other cardiovascular conditions. Both warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants are susceptible to drug-drug interactions (DDIs). DDIs are an important cause of adverse drug reactions and exact a large toll on the health care system. DDI for warfarin mainly involve moderate to strong inhibitors/inducers of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C9, which is responsible for the elimination of the more potent S-isomer of warfarin. However, inhibitor/inducers of CYP3A4 and CYP1A2 may also cause DDI with warfarin. Recognition of these precipitating agents along with increased frequency of monitoring when these agents are initiated or discontinued will minimize the impact of warfarin DDI. Direct oral anticoagulants are mainly affected by medications strongly affecting the permeability glycoprotein (P-gp), and to a lesser extent, strong CYP3A4 inhibitors/inducers. Dabigatran and edoxaban are affected by P-gp modulation. Strong inducers of CYP3A4 or P-gp should be avoided in all patients taking direct oral anticoagulant unless previously proven to be otherwise safe. Simultaneous strong CYP3A4 and P-gp inhibitors should be avoided in patients taking apixaban and rivaroxaban. Concomitant antiplatelet/anticoagulant use confers additive risk for bleeding, but their combination is unavoidable in many cases. Minimizing duration of concomitant anticoagulant/antiplatelet therapy as indicated by evidence-based clinical guidelines is the best way to reduce the risk of bleeding.

Using multimarker screening to identify biomarkers associated with cardiovascular death in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher mortality. Biomarkers may improve the understanding of key pathophysiologic processes in AF that lead to death. Using a new multiplex analytic technique, we explored the association between 268 biomarkers and cardiovascular (CV) death in anticoagulated patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: A case-cohort design with 1.8- to 1.9-year follow-up. The identification cohort included 517 cases and 4057 randomly selected patients from ARISTOTLE. The validation cohort included 277 cases and 1042 randomly selected controls from RE-LY. Plasma collected at randomization was analysed with conventional immunoassays and the OLINK proximity extension assay panels: CVDII, CVDIII, and Inflammation. Association between biomarkers and CV death was evaluated using Random Survival Forest, Boruta, and adjusted Cox-regression analyses. The biomarkers most strongly and consistently associated with CV death were as follows (hazard ratio for inter-quartile comparison [95% CI]): N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP; 1.63 (1.37-1.93)], cardiac troponin T [cTnT-hs; 1.60 (1.35-1.88)], interleukin-6 [IL-6; 1.29 (1.13-1.47)], growth differentiation factor-15 [GDF-15; 1.30 (1.10-1.53)], fibroblast growth factor 23 [FGF-23; 1.21 (1.10-1.33)], urokinase receptor [uPAR; 1.38 (1.16-1.64)], trefoil factor 3 [TFF3; 1.27 (1.10-1.46)], tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 [TNFR1; 1.21 (1.01-1.45)], TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2 [TRAILR2; 1.18 (1.04-1.34)], and cathepsin L1 [CTSL1; 1.22 (1.07-1.39)]. CONCLUSION: In this comprehensive screening of 268 biomarkers in anticoagulated patients with AF, the underlying mechanisms most strongly associated with CV death were cardiorenal dysfunction (NT-proBNP, cTnT-hs, CTSL1, TFF3), oxidative stress (GDF-15), inflammation (IL-6, GDF-15), calcium balance, vascular and renal dysfunction (FGF-23), fibrinolysis (suPAR), and apoptosis (TNFR1, TRAILR2). These findings provide novel insights into pathophysiologic aspects associated with CV death in AF. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Stroke risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation with and without rheumatic heart disease.

AIMS: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD), especially mitral stenosis, are assumed to be at high risk of stroke, irrespective of other factors. We aimed to re-evaluate stroke risk factors in a contemporary cohort of AF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data of 15 400 AF patients presenting to an emergency department and who were enrolled in the global RE-LY AF registry, representing 47 countries from all inhabited continents. Follow-up occurred at 1 year after enrolment. A total of 1788 (11.6%) patients had RHD. These patients were younger (51.4±15.7 vs. 67.8±13.6 years), more likely to be female (66.2% vs. 44.7%) and had a lower mean CHA2DS2-VASc score (2.1±1.7 vs. 3.7±2.2) as compared to patients without RHD (all P<0.001). Significant mitral stenosis (average mean transmitral gradient 11.5±6.5 mmHg) was the predominant valve lesion in those with RHD (59.6%). Patients with RHD had a higher baseline rate of anticoagulation use (60.4% vs. 45.2%, P<0.001). Unadjusted stroke rates at 1 year were 2.8% and 4.1% for patients with and without RHD, respectively. The performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was modest in both groups [stroke at 1 year, c-statistics 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.78 and 0.63, 95% CI 0.61-0.66, respectively]. In the overall cohort, advanced age, female sex, prior stroke, tobacco use, and non-use of anticoagulation were predictors for stroke (all P<0.05). Mitral stenosis was not associated with stroke risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.67-1.72, P=0.764). CONCLUSION: The performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was modest in AF patients both with and without RHD. In this cohort, moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis was not an independent risk factor for stroke.

Testing the feasibility of operationalizing a prospective, randomized trial with remote cardiac safety EKG monitoring during a pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has in vitro activity against SARS-CoV-2. The FDA authorized emergency use of HCQ against COVID-19. HCQ may have dose-related cardiotoxicity. This clinical trial received ethical approval on May 15, 2020, operationalized in June to evaluate a low prophylaxis dose of HCQ (200mg BID) in household contacts of COVID-19-positive patients without physical contact between investigators and participants. It represents the first report of the FDA approved 6-lead EKGs with a smartphone KardiaMobile® 6L application. METHODS: To reach a sample size of 170, household members were contacted by telephone, emailed consent forms with electronic signature capability, and randomized 2:1 to HCQ or observation for 10 days with follow-up of 14 days. Home saliva PCR tests recorded COVID status on days 1 and 14. Symptoms and 6-lead EKGs were obtained daily. RESULTS: Fifty-one participants were randomized with 42 evaluable at day 14. Remote monitoring of 407 EKGs revealed no QTc prolongation or other ECG changes in either group. At time of consent, no participants were symptomatic or COVID+. On days 1 and 14, COVID tests were positive in 4 and 2 in the HCQ group and 4 and 0 in the observation group. No tests converted to positive. There were no deaths or hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: A clinical trial without personal contact, rapidly initiated and operationalized to exclude cardiac toxicity using daily remote 6-lead EKG monitoring, is feasible. Of 407 EKGs from 42 participants, there was no evidence of cardiac toxicity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov : NCT04652648 registration date: December 3, 2020.

Residual stroke risk despite oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Background: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF); however, thromboembolism (TE) still can occur despite OAC. Factors associated with residual risk for stroke, systemic embolism, or transient ischemic attack events despite OAC have not been well described. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the residual risk of thromboembolic events in patients with AF despite OAC. Methods: A total of 18,955 patients were analyzed in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF I and II) using multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling. Mean age was 72 ± 10.7, and 42% were women. There were 451 outcome events. Results: The risk of TE despite OAC increased with CHA2DS2-VASc score: 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.92) events per 100 patient-years for CHA2DS2-VASc score <4 vs 2.01 (95% CI 1.81-2.24) events per 100-patient years for CHA2DS2-VASc score >4. Factors associated with increased risk were previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (hazard ratio [HR] 2.87; 95% CI 2.30-3.59; P <.001), female sex (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.24-1.86; P <.001), hypertension (HR 1.50; 95% CI 1.09-2.06; P = .01), and permanent AF (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.12-1.94; P = .001). When transient ischemic attack was excluded, the results were similar, but permanent AF was no longer significantly associated with thromboembolic events. Conclusion: Patients with AF have a residual risk of TE with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score despite OAC. Key risk markers include previous stroke/transient ischemic attack, female sex, hypertension, and permanent AF.

The future is now: our experience starting a remote clinical trial during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 a pandemic on February 11, 2020. This organism causes COVID-19 disease and the rapid rise in cases and geographic spread strained healthcare systems. Clinical research trials were hindered by infection control measures discouraging physical contact and diversion of resources to meet emergent requirements. The need for effective treatment and prevention of COVID-19 prompted an untested investigational response. Trial groups adapted approaches using remote enrolment and consenting, newly developed diagnostic tests, delivery of study medications and devices to participants' homes, and remote monitoring to ensure investigator/enrollee safety while preserving ethical integrity, confidentiality, and data accuracy. METHODS: Clinical researchers at our community health system in the USA undertook an outpatient randomized open-label study of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) prophylaxis versus observation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in household COVID-19 contacts. Designed in March 2020, challenges included COVID-19 infection in the research group, HCQ shortage, and lack of well-established home SARS-CoV-2 tests and remote ECG monitoring protocols in populations naive to these procedures. The study was written, funded, and received ethical committee approval in 4 months and was completed by September 2020 during a period of fluctuating infection rates and conflicting political opinions on HCQ use; results have been published. Singular methodology included the use of a new RNA PCR saliva SARS-CoV-2 home diagnostic test and a remote smartphone-based 6-lead ECG recording system. RESULTS: Of 483 households contacted regarding trial participation, 209 (43.3%) did not respond to telephone calls/e-mails and 90 (18.6%) declined; others were not eligible by inclusion or exclusion criteria. Ultimately, 54 individuals were enrolled and 42 completed the study. Numbers were too small to determine the efficacy of HCQ prophylaxis. No serious treatment-related adverse events were encountered. CONCLUSIONS: Flexibility in design, a multidisciplinary research team, prompt cooperation among research, funding, ethics review groups, and finding innovative study approaches enabled this work. Concerns were balancing study recruitment against unduly influencing individuals anxious for protection from the pandemic and exclusion of groups based on lack of Internet access and technology. An issue to address going forward is establishing research cooperation across community health systems before emergencies develop. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04652648 . Registered on December 3, 2020.

Predictors of sinus rhythm 6 weeks after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation: a pre-planned post hoc analysis of the X-VeRT trial.

AIMS: Using a pre-planned post hoc analysis of patients included in X-VeRT, we evaluated predictors of sinus rhythm at 6 weeks after planned cardioversion. METHODS AND RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic curves and logistic regression models were used to evaluate continuous and categorical variables as predictors of sinus rhythm 6 at weeks from cardioversion (end of study). The primary analysis was performed in successfully cardioverted patients with an evaluable electrocardiogram at end of study. A second analysis evaluated additional patients who spontaneously restored sinus rhythm before planned cardioversion. Of the 1504 patients with atrial fibrillation of >48 h or of unknown duration who were randomly assigned to either rivaroxaban or vitamin K antagonist, 1039 (64.6 ± 10.3 years, 73.4% male) underwent planned cardioversion and were included in this study. Patients receiving early cardioversion (i.e. between 1 and 5 days from hospitalization) had a 67% higher probability to have sinus rhythm at end of study than those who received delayed cardioversion (i.e. between 21 and 56 days from hospitalization) [odds ratio (OR) 1.67, confidence interval (CI) 1.27-2.18; P < 0.0001]. In a multivariate analysis of 17 baseline variables, patients with a CHADS2 score of 0 were 33% less likely to be in sinus rhythm than those with a CHADS2 score ≥2 (OR 0.66, CI 0.47-0.94; P = 0.0225). In the secondary analysis, spontaneous restoration of sinus rhythm was also found to predict sinus rhythm at end of study (OR 8.62, CI 1.54-48.16; P = 0.0142). CONCLUSION: In X-VeRT, early cardioversion and high CHADS2 scores predicted sinus rhythm at 6 weeks from cardioversion.

Comparison of Low-Dose Direct Acting Anticoagulant and Warfarin in patients Aged ≥80 years With Atrial Fibrillation.

Low dose direct acting oral anticoagulants (LDDOACS) were approved for elderly atrial Fibrillation (AF) patients with limited information. A retrospective analysis collecting baseline characteristics and outcomes in AF patients ≥ 80 prescribed LDDOAC or warfarin (W), from a multidisciplinary practice between 1/1/11 (First LDDOAC available) and 5/31/17 was conducted. From 9660 AF patients, 514 ≥ 80 received a LDDOAC and 422 W. A multivariable comparison found LDDOAC patients were older (p <0.001), had lower creatinine clearance (CrCl) (p = 0.006), used more anti-platelet drugs (p <0.001), and more often had new onset AF verses those prescribed W (p <0.001). There were no clinically significant differences among those patients receiving Dabigatran 75 mgs BID (D), Rivaroxaban 15mgs (R) or Apixaban 2.5mgs BID (A). Forty-eight and 50% of the patients remained on their LDDOAC or W for the observation period (p = 0.55). Stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and CNS bleeds were 1.16 vs 2.22%/yr., (p = 0.143) and 1.46 vs 0.93%/yr., (p = 0.24). Mortality and major bleeds were 6.26 vs 1.67%/yr., and 12.3vs 3.77%/yr. (p <0.001). SSE were 1.1%/yr for D, R, and A (p = 0.94). CNS bleeds were 2.2 for D, 1.7 for R and 0.8%/yr. for A: p = 0.53. Major bleeding was: 14.3 for D, 14.1 for R and 9.1%/yr. for A, p = 0.048 (with A < R, p = 0.01). Mortality was 5.5 for D, 4.2 for R and 9.5% for A, p = 0.031. In conclusion, half the patients remained on their assigned anti-coagulant. SSE and intracranial bleed rates were similar and low. Major bleeds and deaths were different between groups emphasizing the need for prospective randomized trials in this growing population with AF.

Evaluation of the prognostic value of GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death score in patients with atrial fibrillation across different geographical areas.

OBJECTIVES: Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a biomarker independently associated with bleeding and death in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). GDF-15 is also used as one component in the more precise biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores. Data from large trials indicate a geographic variability in regard to overall outcomes, including bleeding and mortality risk. Our aim was to assess the consistency of the association between GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death score, with major bleeding and death, across world geographic regions. METHODS: Data were available from 14 767 patients with AF from the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial and 8651 patients with AF from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) trial in this cohort study. GDF-15 was analysed from plasma samples obtained at randomisation. The geographical consistency of the associations between outcomes and GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death scores were assessed by Cox-regression models including interactions with predefined geographical region. RESULTS: GDF-15 and the ABC-AF-bleeding score were associated with major bleeding in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Similarly, GDF-15 and the ABC-AF-death score were associated with all-cause mortality in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Overall, the association between GDF-15, the ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death risk score with major bleeding and death was consistent across regions in both ARISTOTLE and the RE-LY trial cohorts. The ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores were consistent regarding discriminative ability when comparing geographic regions in both trial cohorts. The C-indices ranged from 0.649 to 0.760 for the ABC-AF-bleeding and from 0.677 to 0.806 for the ABC-AF-death score by different geographic regions. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF on anticoagulation, GDF-15 and the biomarker-based ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores are consistently associated with respectively increased risk of major bleeding and death and have similar prognostic value across world geographic regions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Patterns of oral anticoagulation use with cardioversion in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Cardioversion is common among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesised that novel oral anticoagulants (NOAC) used in clinical practice resulted in similar rates of stroke compared with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) for cardioversion. METHODS: Using the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation II, patients with AF who had a cardioversion, follow-up data and an AF diagnosis within 6 months of enrolment were identified retrospectively. Clinical outcomes were compared for patients receiving a NOAC or VKA for 1 year following cardioversion. RESULTS: Among 13 004 patients with AF, 2260 (17%) underwent cardioversion. 1613 met the inclusion criteria for this analysis. At the time of cardioversion, 283 (17.5%) were receiving a VKA and 1330 (82.5%) a NOAC. A transoesophageal echocardiogram (TOE) was performed in 403 (25%) cardioversions. The incidence of stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) at 30 days was the same for patients having (3.04 per 100 patient-years) or not having (3.04 per 100 patient-years) a TOE (p=0.99). There were no differences in the incidence of death (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.62 to 2.28, p=0.61), cardiovascular hospitalisation (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.35, p=0.91), stroke/TIA (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.30 to 4.74, p=0.81) or bleeding-related hospitalisation (HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.52, p=0.45) at 1 year for patients treated with either a NOAC or VKA. CONCLUSIONS: Cardioversion was a low-risk procedure for patients treated with NOAC, and there were statistically similar rates of stroke/TIA 30 days after cardioversion as for patients treated with VKA. There were no statically significant differences in death, stroke/TIA or major bleeding at 1 year among patients treated with NOAC compared with VKA after cardioversion.

Screening of Multiple Biomarkers Associated With Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation.

Background To explore the pathophysiological features of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), we evaluated the association between 268 plasma proteins and subsequent ischemic stroke in 2 large AF cohorts receiving oral anticoagulation. Methods and Results A case-cohort sample of patients with AF from the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial, including 282 cases with ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and a random sample of 4124 without these events, during 1.9 years of follow-up was used for identification. Validation was provided by a similar case-cohort sample of patients with AF from the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy) trial, including 149 cases with ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and a random sample of 1062 without these events. In plasma obtained before randomization, 268 unique biomarkers were measured with OLINK proximity extension assay panels (CVD II, CVD III, and Inflammation) and conventional immunoassays. The association between biomarkers and outcomes was evaluated by random survival forest and adjusted Cox regression. According to random survival forest or Cox regression analyses, the biomarkers most strongly and consistently associated with ischemic stroke/systemic embolism were matrix metalloproteinase-9, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), osteopontin, sortilin, soluble suppression of tumorigenesis 2, and trefoil factor-3. The corresponding hazard ratios (95% CIs) for an interquartile difference were as follows: 1.18 (1.00-1.38), 1.55 (1.28-1.88), 1.28 (1.07-1.53), 1.19 (1.02-1.39), 1.23 (1.05-1.45), and 1.19 (0.97-1.45), respectively. Conclusions In patients with AF, of 268 unique biomarkers, the 6 biomarkers most strongly associated with subsequent ischemic stroke/systemic embolism represent fibrosis/remodeling (matrix metalloproteinase-9 and soluble suppression of tumorigenesis 2), cardiac dysfunction (NT-proBNP), vascular calcification (osteopontin), metabolism (sortilin), and mucosal integrity/ischemia (trefoil factor-3). Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifiers: NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) levels in relation to risk factors for COVID-19 in two large cohorts of patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: The global COVID-19 pandemic is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus entering human cells using angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a cell surface receptor. ACE2 is shed to the circulation, and a higher plasma level of soluble ACE2 (sACE2) might reflect a higher cellular expression of ACE2. The present study explored the associations between sACE2 and clinical factors, cardiovascular biomarkers, and genetic variability. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma and DNA samples were obtained from two international cohorts of elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (n = 3999 and n = 1088). The sACE2 protein level was measured by the Olink Proteomics® Multiplex CVD II96 × 96 panel. Levels of the biomarkers high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, D-dimer, and cystatin-C were determined by immunoassays. Genome-wide association studies were performed by Illumina chips. Higher levels of sACE2 were statistically significantly associated with male sex, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and older age. The sACE2 level was most strongly associated with the levels of GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and hs-cTnT. When adjusting for these biomarkers, only male sex remained associated with sACE2. We found no statistically significant genetic regulation of the sACE2 level. CONCLUSIONS: Male sex and clinical or biomarker indicators of biological ageing, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes are associated with higher sACE2 levels. The levels of GDF-15 and NT-proBNP, which are associated both with the sACE2 level and a higher risk for mortality and cardiovascular disease, might contribute to better identification of risk for severe COVID-19 infection.

Evaluation of the Age, Biomarkers, and Clinical History-Bleeding Risk Score in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation With Combined Aspirin and Anticoagulation Therapy Enrolled in the ARISTOTLE and RE-LY Trials.

Importance: Most patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and coronary artery disease have indications for preventing stroke with oral anticoagulation therapy and preventing myocardial infarction and stent thrombosis with platelet inhibition. Objective: To evaluate whether the recently developed ABC (age, biomarkers, and clinical history)-bleeding risk score might be useful to identify patients with AF with different risks of bleeding during concomitant aspirin and anticoagulation therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: The biomarkers in the ABC-bleeding risk score (growth differentiation factor 15, hemoglobin, and troponin) were measured in blood samples collected at randomization between 2006 and 2010 in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial and between 2005 and 2009 in the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-term Anticoagulation Therapy) trial, both of which were multinational randomized clinical trials. The trials were reported 2011 and 2009, respectively. A total of 24 349 patients with AF (14 980 patients from the ARISTOTLE trial and 9369 patients from the RE-LY trial) were analyzed in the present cohort study. The median (interquartile range) length of follow-up was 1.8 (1.3-2.3) years in the ARISTOTLE cohort and 2.0 (1.6-2.3) years in the RE-LY cohort. Data analysis was performed from February 2018 to June 2019. Exposures: Concomitant aspirin treatment during study follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: Time to first occurrence of a major bleeding was determined according to International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis definition. Hazard ratios were estimated with Cox models adjusted for ABC-bleeding risk score and randomized treatment. Results: The median (interquartile range) age was 70 (63-76) years in the ARISTOTLE cohort and 72 (67-77) years in the RE-LY cohort (5238 patients [35.6%] in the ARISTOTLE cohort and 3086 patients [36.4%] in the RE-LY cohort were women). The total number of patients with a first major bleeding event was 651 (207 with aspirin and 444 without) in ARISTOTLE and 463 (238 with aspirin and 225 without) in RE-LY. For both cohorts, in those with a low ABC-bleeding risk score, the absolute bleeding rate was low even with concomitant aspirin treatment, whereas in those with a higher ABC-bleeding risk score, the rate of bleeding was higher with concomitant aspirin compared with oral anticoagulation alone (ARISTOTLE, hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.40-1.95; P < .001; RE-LY, hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.42-2.04; P < .001). Thus, a low annual ABC-bleeding risk (eg, 0.5% without aspirin use) would with concomitant aspirin result in an annual rate of 0.8%, and a high estimated ABC-bleeding risk (eg, 3.0%) would result in a substantially higher rate of 5.0%. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the ABC-bleeding risk score identifies patients with different risks of bleeding when combining aspirin and oral anticoagulation. The ABC-bleeding risk score may, therefore, be a useful tool for decision support concerning intensity and duration of combination antithrombotic treatment in patients with AF and coronary artery disease.

Serial measurement of interleukin-6 and risk of mortality in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation: Insights from ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials.

BACKGROUND: The inflammatory biomarker interleukin-6 (IL-6) is associated with mortality in atrial fibrillation (AF). OBJECTIVE: To investigate if repeated IL-6 measurements improve the prognostication for stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding, and mortality in anticoagulated patients with AF. METHODS: IL-6 levels by ELISA were measured at study entry and at 2 months in 4830 patients in the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial with 1.8 years median follow-up. In the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) trial, IL-6 was measured at study entry, 3, 6, and 12 months in 2559 patients with 2.0 years median follow-up. Associations between a second IL-6 measurement and outcomes, adjusted for baseline IL-6, clinical variables, and other cardiovascular biomarkers, were analyzed by Cox regression. RESULTS: Median IL-6 levels were 2.0 ng/L (interquartile range [IQR] 1.30-3.20) and 2.10 ng/L (IQR 1.40-3.40) at the two time-points in ARISTOTLE, and, in RE-LY, 2.5 ng/L (IQR 1.6-4.3), 2.5 ng/L (IQR 1.6-4.2), 2.4 ng/L (IQR 1.6, 3.9), and 2.4 ng/L (IQR 1.5, 3.9), respectively. IL-6 was associated with mortality; hazard ratios per 50% higher IL-6 at 2 or 3 months, respectively, were 1.32 (95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.41; P < .0001) in ARISTOTLE, and 1.11 (1.01-1.22, P = .0290) in RE-LY; with improved C index from 0.74 to 0.76 in ARISTOTLE, but not in the smaller RE-LY cohort. There were no consistent associations with second IL-6 and stroke or systemic embolism, or major bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent systemic inflammatory activity, assessed by repeated IL-6 measurements, is associated with mortality independent of established clinical risk factors and other strong cardiovascular biomarkers in anticoagulated patients with AF.

Characteristics and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in patients without traditional risk factors: an RE-LY AF registry analysis

ABSTRACT: Aims Data on patient characteristics, prevalence, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients without traditional risk factors, often labelled 'lone AF', are sparse. METHODS AND RESULTS: The RE-LY AF registry included 15 400 individuals who presented to emergency departments with AF in 47 countries. This analysis focused on patients without traditional risk factors, including age ≥60 years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, left ventricular hypertrophy, congenital heart disease, pulmonary disease, valve heart disease, hyperthyroidism, and prior cardiac surgery. Patients without traditional risk factors were compared with age- and region-matched controls with traditional risk factors (1:3 fashion). In 796 (5%) patients, no traditional risk factors were present. However, 98% (779/796) had less-established or borderline risk factors, including borderline hypertension (130-140/80-90 mmHg; 47%), chronic kidney disease (eGFR < 60 mL/min; 57%), obesity (body mass index > 30; 19%), diabetes (5%), excessive alcohol intake (>14 units/week; 4%), and smoking (25%). Compared with patients with traditional risk factors (n = 2388), patients without traditional risk factors were more often men (74% vs. 59%, P < 0.001) had paroxysmal AF (55% vs. 37%, P < 0.001) and less AF persistence after 1 year (21% vs. 49%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, 1-year stroke occurrence rate (0.6% vs. 2.0%, P = 0.013) and heart failure hospitalizations (0.9% vs. 12.5%, P < 0.001) were lower. However, risk of AF-related re-hospitalization was similar (18% vs. 21%, P = 0.09). CONCLUSION: Almost all patients without traditionally defined AF risk factors have less-established or borderline risk factors. These patients have a favourable 1-year prognosis, but risk of AF-related re-hospitalization remains high. Greater emphasis should be placed on recognition and management of less-established or borderline risk factors.

Shared decision-making in atrial fibrillation: patient-reported involvement in treatment decisions.

AIMS: To determine the extent of shared decision-making (SDM), during selection of oral anticoagulant (OAC) and rhythm control treatments, in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated survey data from 1006 patients with new-onset AF enrolled at 56 US sites participating in the SATELLITE substudy of the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT II). Patients completed surveys at enrolment and at 6-month follow-up. Patients were asked about who made their AF treatment decisions. Shared decision-making was classified as one that the patient felt was an autonomous decision or a shared decision with their healthcare provider (HCP). Approximately half of patients reported that their OAC treatment decisions were made entirely by their HCP. Compared with those reporting no SDM, patients reporting SDM for OAC were more often female (47.2% vs. 38.4%), while patients reporting SDM for rhythm control were more often male (62.2% vs. 57.6%). The most important factors cited by patients during decision-making for OAC were reducing stroke and bleeding risk, and their HCP's recommendations. After adjustment, patients with self-reported understanding of OAC, and rhythm control options, had higher odds of having participated in SDM [odds ratio (OR) 2.54, confidence interval (CI): 1.75-3.68 and OR 2.36, CI: 1.50-3.71, both P ≤ 0.001, respectively]. CONCLUSION: Shared decision-making is not widely implemented in contemporary AF practice. Patient understanding about available therapeutic options is associated with a more than a two-fold higher likelihood of SDM, and may be a potential target for future interventions.