Development of a machine learning model to predict intraoperative transfusion and guide type and screen ordering.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To develop an algorithm to predict intraoperative Red Blood Cell (RBC) transfusion from preoperative variables contained in the electronic medical record of our institution, with the goal of guiding type and screen ordering. DESIGN: Machine Learning model development on retrospective single-center hospital data. SETTING: Preoperative period and operating room. PATIENTS: The study included patients ≥18 years old who underwent surgery during 2019-2022 and excluded those who refused transfusion, underwent emergency surgery, or surgery for organ donation after cardiac or brain death. INTERVENTION: Prediction of intraoperative transfusion vs. no intraoperative transfusion. MEASUREMENTS: The outcome variable was intraoperative transfusion of RBCs. Predictive variables were surgery, surgeon, anesthesiologist, age, sex, body mass index, race or ethnicity, preoperative hemoglobin (g/dL), partial thromboplastin time (s), platelet count x 109 per liter, and prothrombin time. We compared the performances of seven machine learning algorithms. After training and optimization on the 2019-2021 dataset, model thresholds were set to the current institutional performance level of sensitivity (93%). To qualify for comparison, models had to maintain clinically relevant sensitivity (>90%) when predicting on 2022 data; overall accuracy was the comparative metric. MAIN RESULTS: Out of 100,813 cases that met study criteria from 2019 to 2021, intraoperative transfusion occurred in 5488 (5.4%) of cases. The LightGBM model was the highest performing algorithm in external temporal validity experiments, with overall accuracy of (76.1%) [95% confidence interval (CI), 75.6-76.5], while maintaining clinically relevant sensitivity of (91.2%) [95% CI, 89.8-92.5]. If type and screens were ordered based upon the LightGBM model, the predicted type and screen to transfusion ratio would improve from 8.4 to 5.1. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning approaches are feasible in predicting intraoperative transfusion from preoperative variables and may improve preoperative type and screen ordering practices when incorporated into the electronic health record.

Visualization of aggregate perioperative data improves anesthesia case planning: A randomized, cross-over trial.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: A challenge in reducing unwanted care variation is effectively managing the wide variety of performed surgical procedures. While an organization may perform thousands of types of cases, privacy and logistical constraints prevent review of previous cases to learn about prior practices. To bridge this gap, we developed a system for extracting key data from anesthesia records. Our objective was to determine whether usage of the system would improve case planning performance for anesthesia residents. DESIGN: Randomized, cross-over trial. SETTING: Vanderbilt University Medical Center. MEASUREMENTS: We developed a web-based, data visualization tool for reviewing de-identified anesthesia records. First year anesthesia residents were recruited and performed simulated case planning tasks (e.g., selecting an anesthetic type) across six case scenarios using a randomized, cross-over design after a baseline assessment. An algorithm scored case planning performance based on care components selected by residents occurring frequently among prior anesthetics, which was scored on a 0-4 point scale. Linear mixed effects regression quantified the tool effect on the average performance score, adjusting for potential confounders. MAIN RESULTS: We analyzed 516 survey questionnaires from 19 residents. The mean performance score was 2.55 ± SD 0.32. Utilization of the tool was associated with an average score improvement of 0.120 points (95% CI 0.060 to 0.179; p < 0.001). Additionally, a 0.055 point improvement due to the "learning effect" was observed from each assessment to the next (95% CI 0.034 to 0.077; p < 0.001). Assessment score was also significantly associated with specific case scenarios (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the feasibility of developing of a clinical data visualization system that aggregated key anesthetic information and found that the usage of tools modestly improved residents' performance in simulated case planning.

Emergency Clinical Procedure Detection With Deep Learning.

Information about a patient's state is critical for hospitals to provide timely care and treatment. Prior work on improving the information flow from emergency medical services (EMS) to hospitals demonstrated the potential of using automated algorithms to detect clinical procedures. However, prior work has not made effective use of video sources that might be available during patient care. In this paper we explore the use convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on raw video data to determine how well video data alone can automatically identify clinical procedures. We apply multiple deep learning models to this problem, with significant variation in results. Our findings indicate performance improvements compared to prior work, but also indicate a need for more training data to reach clinically deployable levels of success.