Evaluation of ASGE Criteria for Prediction of Choledocholithiasis: Can Early Endoscopic Ultrasound Utilization Make the Prediction More Accurate?

Background: ASGE predictive model for the detection of choledocholithiasis is a reasonable approach for the management of patients with cholelithiasis. Surgeons do not pursue cholecystectomy without evaluation of the biliary system when laboratory tests and diagnostic imaging evidence show biliary duct involvement. Literature revisions reveal that the prediction of choledocholithiasis based on ASGE criteria suffers from poor accuracy which results in unnecessary ERCPs. We decided to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the ASGE predictive model for the detection of choledocholithiasis with the hope that early EUS would obviate the need for unnecessary ERCPs among highly probable patients for choledocholithiasis based on ASGE criteria. Methods: This is a prospective intervention and control study on the accuracy of ASGE criteria for the prediction of choledocholithiasis. To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of ASGE criteria, patients were followed in two groups of controls who were treated based on ASGE guidelines and cases who underwent primary EUS. The clinical relevance of the ASGE criteria was estimated by sensitivity and specificity using SPSS Statistics 28 software. Then, absolute risk reduction utilizing primary EUS was also calculated. Results: The sensitivity and specificity of the ASGE predictive guideline for choledocholithiasis were estimated to be 62.31% and 51.85%, respectively. Evaluation of the ASGE guideline also revealed that patients in the intermediate probability group who finally required ERCP based on EUS results (false-negatives) were estimated to be 49.1% and patients who were predicted to require ERCP but finally did not need ERCP (false positives) were estimated to be 37.68%. The comparison of the two groups revealed the need for ERCP in about 55.56% of the primary EUS group and 77.42% in the ASGE group. Utilization of primary EUS reduced the need for ERCP by an absolute risk reduction of 0.299. (Primary Endpoint). Conclusion: ASGE guideline is associated with the overestimation of ERCP in cholelithiasis. The usage of primary EUS will reduce the need for ERCP.

The impact of metabolic syndrome on chronic kidney disease development. Insights from a big prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) can progress over time and cause renal replacement therapy. Studies showed the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and CKD. Current evidence is from cross-sectional studies. There is a need for the robust data from big prospective cohort studies with long-term follow-up. This study investigated the association between CKD and MetS after 18 years of follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Among 15,255 participants aged ≥20 years at baseline (1999-2005), after exclusion of CKD, cancer, and use of corticosteroids, 8987 participants entered the study and followed at a three-year cycle up to 2018. All participants were divided into five subgroups: (1) MetS-free, (2) MetS (DM+, HTN-), (3) MetS+ (DM-, HTN+), (4) MetS+ (DM+, HTN+) and (5) MetS+ (DM-, HTN-). RESULT: At baseline, the mean age of the participants was 39.8 ± 13.3 years; 4996 (55.6%) were females. CKD was developed in 2038 (22.7%) subjects during 18 years of follow-up, of whom 1107 had MetS. After adjusting for the confounding variables, MetS (DM+, HTN+) subgroup had the highest risk of CKD (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.32-1.71). MetS subjects with five components had a higher incidence rate of CKD (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.22-1.68). There was no association between high waist circumference (WC) (HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.99-1.19) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.98-1.18) with CKD. CONCLUSION: CKD significantly develops in patients with MetS. Metabolic syndrome was associated with the development of chronic kidney disease incidence. Hypertension, diabetes, and age were strong indicators, while abdominal obesity and reduced HDL were not associated with the incidence of CKD.

Anthropometric measures and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: An 18 years follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of anthropometric measures to predict mortality in normal-weight subjects is unclear. We aimed to study the association of central obesity measures, e.g., waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), with the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. METHODS: In a prospective population-based Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 8287 participants aged ≥30 y, followed for a median of 18 years. The association of WC, WHR and WHtR with the risk for mortality was estimated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models in different BMI groups. RESULTS: We documented 821 deaths, of which 251 were related to CVD mortality. Normal weight individuals with central obesity were significantly at increased risk of all-cause (HR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.1) and CVD mortality (HR: 1.6; 95% CI: 0.92, 2.9) compared with normal-weight individuals without central obesity; the risk remained significant only in women. Also, normal-weight women (not men) with high WHR were at increased risk of all-cause (HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.8) and CVD mortality (HR: 5.9; 95% CI: 1.5, 23.2). High WHtR increased the risk of all-cause (HR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) and CVD mortality (HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2, 2.7) which remained significant in normal-weight men and women. All central obesity indicators were significantly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality in subjects aged under 65. CONCLUSION: Even in normal-weight individuals, WC and WHR in women and WHtR in both sexes are predictors of all-cause and CVD mortality. WHtR shows a stronger association, especially in the population aged under 65.