ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: This aim of study was to develop and validate clinical nomograms to predict the survival of patients with medullary thyroid cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patient data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2013. All included patients were randomly assigned into the training and validation sets. Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, and nomograms were constructed. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 1,657 patients were retrospectively analyzed. The multivariate Cox model identified age, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, N stage, and M stage as independent covariates associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Nomograms predicting OS and CSS were constructed based on these covariates. The nomograms predicting both OS and CSS exhibited superior discrimination power to that of TNM staging system in the training and validation sets. Calibration plots indicated that both the nomograms in OS and CSS exhibited high correlation to actual observed results. CONCLUSION: The nomograms established in this study provided an alternative tool for prognostic prediction, which may thereby improve individualized assessment of survival risks and lead to the creation of additional clinical therapies.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop and validate nomograms for individual risk prediction in patients with liver-only colorectal metastases (CRLM). METHODS: Histologically confirmed CRLM diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were analysed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to obtain independent prognostic factors to build nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 9615 patients with CRLM were included in the study. A nomogram predicting OS was constructed according to 9 independent clinicopathological factors. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based on the same 9 factors. The C-indexes of the nomograms were significantly better than the TNM staging system (7th edition) in both sets for predicting both OS and CSS. The calibration plots displayed an optimal agreement between the predictive results and the actual observed outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomograms can help clinicians calculate the probability in patients with CRLM.
Subject(s)
Colorectal Neoplasms/mortality , Liver Neoplasms/mortality , Nomograms , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Colorectal Neoplasms/pathology , Databases, Factual , Female , Humans , Liver Neoplasms/secondary , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Neoplasm Staging , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Survival AnalysisABSTRACT
Shancigu (Rhizome Pleionis) was first recorded in the Ben cao shiyi (Supplements to Chinese Materia Medica). The source of the strain of this medicinal was unclear because of its too simple description in the medical books in the Tang and Song dynasties. Its original plant could be Cremastra appendiculata (D.Don) Makino, Tulipa edulis (Miq.) Baker and so on. The original plant of Shanciguwas Tulipaedulis since the Ming dynasty to the Republican period. The name of "Guangcigu" began to appear in the Republican period because of the changes of its processing method. The original plants evolved into Cremastra appendiculata, Pleione bulbocodioides (Franch.) Rolfe and Pleione yunnanensis Rolfe, with Tulipa edulisas the original plant of Guangcigu (Bulbus of Tulipasedulis). It is found that only the Tulipaedulis is the unequivocal origin with the longest medicinal history through sorting out of the original plants of Shancigu. Hence, it is suggested that Tulipa edulis should be recovered as the original strain of Shancigu.
Subject(s)
Manuscripts, Medical as Topic/history , Materia Medica/history , Medicine, Chinese Traditional/history , Tulipa/chemistry , China , History, 15th Century , History, 16th Century , History, 17th Century , History, 18th Century , History, 19th Century , History, 20th Century , History, Medieval , Terminology as TopicABSTRACT
Aucklandia lappa Decne was first recorded in the Sheng nong ben cao jing (Shennong's Classic of Materia Medica). Through the textual research of herbal literature, it was found that the costus root in the Sheng nong ben cao jing perhaps was not the plant of Aucklandia lappa Decne of Compositae, but the eaglewood or Lignum Aquilasria Resinatum based on the comprehensive judgment of shape, taste, nature, and function etc. In the Sheng nong ben cao jing, it only includes costus root without the title of eaglewood, and Tao Hongjing recorded both herbs together in his Ming yi bie lu (Supplementary Records of Celebrated Physicians), which became a foreshadow of misunderstanding of the later generations. Beginning from the Tang ben cao (Materia Medica of the Tang Dynasty), the costus root was considered as the plant of Auckiandia lappa Decne from the Compostae with its profound influence until now.
