ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The recently proposed nomogram of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) lacks predictive accuracy for patients with stage D hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Tumor burden is crucial in prognostic prediction but is not included in the criteria of stage D HCC. This study aims to develop a nomogram with tumor burden as the core element for BCLC stage D patients. METHODS: A total of 386 patients were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets (1:1 ratio). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to select factors with significant prognostic effect and generate the nomogram. Concordance indices and calibration plots were used to evaluate the performance of nomogram. RESULTS: Overall survival of study patients was significantly associated with tumor burden as well as hepatitis B, serum α-fetoprotein level, cirrhosis and performance status in multivariate Cox regression (all p<0.05). Beta-coefficients of these variables in derivation set were used to generate the nomogram. Each patient was assigned with a total nomogram point that predicted individualized 6-month and 1-year survival. The derivation and validation sets had a c-index of 0.759 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.552-0.923) and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.529-0.913), respectively. The calibration plots were close to the 45-degree line for 6-month and 1-year survival prediction for all quarters of patients in both derivation and validation sets. CONCLUSION: Tumor burden is significantly associated with the outcome for patients with stage D HCC. The tumor burden-incorporated nomogram may serve as a feasible and easy-to-use tool in predicting survival on an individual level.
Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/pathology , Liver Neoplasms/pathology , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , PrognosisABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Fully covered esophageal self-expandable metal stents (SEMSs) are potentially removable but can be associated with high migration rates. For precise positioning, non-foreshortening SEMSs are preferred. Recently, a new fully covered non-foreshortening SEMS with anti-migration features was introduced. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of this new esophageal SEMS. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Single, tertiary-care center. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients with malignant and benign strictures with dysphagia grade of ≥3 and patients with fistulas/leaks were studied. INTERVENTIONS: Stent placement and removal. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Technical success in stent deployment/removal, efficacy in relieving dysphagia and sealing fistulas/leaks, and adverse events. RESULTS: Forty-three stents were placed in 35 patients (mean [± standard deviation] age 65 ± 11 years; 31 male), 24 for malignant and 11 for benign (5 strictures, 6 leaks) indications. Technical success in precise SEMS placement was 100%. The after-stent dysphagia grade improved significantly (at 1 week: 1.5 ± 0.7; at 4 weeks: 1.2 ± 0.4; baseline: 3.8 ± 0.4; P < .0001). Twenty stents were removed for clinical indications, with technical success of 100%. All leaks sealed after SEMS placement and did not recur after stent removal. All benign strictures recurred after stent removal. Adverse events included migration (14%), chest pain (11%), and dysphagia from tissue hyperplasia (6%). There was no stent-related mortality. LIMITATIONS: Nonrandomized, single-center study. CONCLUSION: The new esophageal SEMS was effective in relieving malignant dysphagia, allowed for precise placement, and was easily removable. It was effective in treating benign esophageal fistulas and leaks. Stent-related adverse events were acceptable.
