Development and evaluation of a novel score for prediction of large oesophageal varices in patients with hepatitis c virus-induced liver cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: Variceal bleeding is one of the most common life-threatening complications of liver cirrhosis. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a predictive score, named Platelet count, Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and Prothrombin-INR (PAP) for the prediction of large oesophageal varices and to compare PAP score with eight common liver fibrosis scores (AAR, APRI, GUCI, BRC score, Fibro-Alfa, FIB4, Lok and Fibro-Q) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) induced liver cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 277 patients with HCV-induced liver cirrhosis were evaluated by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy for presence of varices. Liver biochemical profile, complete blood count, prothrombin time and AFP were estimated. Stepwise linear discriminant analysis and area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to create a predictive score (PAP score) comprising platelet count, AFP and prothrombin-INR. RESULTS: PAP score predicts large oesophageal varices in patients with HCV-induced liver cirrhosis with AUC of 0.85. The optimum cut-off for predicting large oesophageal varices using ROC curve analysis was 0.27. At this point the PAP score had 77% sensitivity, 86% specificity, 94% negative predictive value and 84% efficiency. The diagnostic performances (AUC) of eight common liver fibrosis scores were 0.58 for the AAR score, 0.63 for APRI, 0.66 for GUCI, 0.68 for BRC, 0.72 for Fibro-Alfa, 0.70 for FIB4, 0.72 for Lok and 0.77 for Fibro-Q. CONCLUSION: PAP scores a non-invasive, inexpensive and simple score that could predict the presence of large oesophageal varices reducing the need of endoscopy. The PAP score has a superior AUC score than other scores, suggesting improved clinical value.

Association of human leucocyte antigen Class I (HLA-A and HLA-B) with chronic hepatitis C virus infection in Egyptian patients.

Egypt has the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the world, ranging from 6% to 28% with an average of approximately 13.8% in the general population. It has been reported that human leucocyte antigen (HLA) alleles are associated with the outcome of HCV infection, but this associations showed ethnic and geographical differences. The objective of this study is to investigate the association between the frequencies of HLA Class I and chronic HCV infection in Egyptian patients and to find out whether there is a relation between certain HLA Class I antigens and HCV viral load, degree of fibrosis, activity and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level. A case control study was conducted on 100 patients with chronic HCV infection and 150 healthy controls. HLA-A and HLA-B typing by complement-dependent micro-lympho-cytotoxicity assay was performed for both groups. HLA-A11 antigen was significantly increased in patients with chronic HCV infection versus controls (OR 3.98; 95% CI = 1.85-8.89; P = 0.001; and Pc = 0.021). HLA-B12, HLA-B13, HLA-B17 and HLA-B40 were higher in patients, and HLA-A32 and HLA-B14 were higher in controls, although the significance was lost after correction for multiple testing. HLA-A9 was significantly associated with low viral load (P = 0.008, Pc = 0.048). The results of this work implicate that HLA-A11 antigen may influence chronic HCV infection and may play a role in viral persistence. Different HLA Class I antigens are not associated with degree of liver fibrosis, grades of activity or level of ALT. However, HLA-A9 is associated with low HCV viral load in chronic HCV Egyptian patients.