ABSTRACT
Dairy farming is an important aspect of the Brazilian agricultural sector. The presence of numerous producers has created a large number of jobs in this field, contributing significantly to the rural economy. Artificial insemination (AI), used as one of the main means of reproduction, is increasingly gaining importance in the genetic improvement of animals. Given this scenario, the semen of bulls has become extremely marketable and an important aspect of the animal industry. This study aims to develop a hedonic model for the price of semen doses of dairy bulls based on the information from the main sellers of the product in the Brazilian market. The main findings reveal that there is an additional premium for proven bulls. Semen doses from Gir bulls proved to be more expensive, and the AI firm ALTA has a discount compared to the other firms. From the characteristics obtained in the tests, there is a premium only for the Predicted Transmitting Ability-Milk (volume). The most valued feature found is the dose being sexed, that is, the dose that guarantees the gestation of a female from its use. Semen doses from dead bulls has proved to be more expensive.
Subject(s)
Plant Breeding , Seeds , Animals , Brazil , Cattle , Costs and Cost Analysis , Dairying/methods , Female , Insemination, Artificial/veterinary , Male , SemenABSTRACT
The outbreak of COVI-19 and the restrictive measures on the mobility of people in Brazil have raised serious concerns about the survival and recovery of passenger transport companies, especially those that generate public agglomerations. There are some policy proposals that aim to recover this set of sectors in the face of the adverse effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study contributes to this debate in course and analyzes the economic effects of two scenarios of recovery for this type of transport services in the Brazilian economy up to the end of 2022: (i) one with a 50% recovery until the end of 2021 and (ii) another with a 50% sectorial recovery until June 2022. This distinction allows us to assess the impact of the speed of recovery. In both scenarios, we also consider likely changes in the labor market, family preferences, and government spending. To accomplish this task, we developed a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that recognizes a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and has details of the transport sectors. The main findings suggest that the drop in these transport services is the main contributing factor to the decline in the Brazilian GDP growth (-2.2%) in the period of social distance measures. However, faster recovery of these sectors can generate a marginal effect of 0.5 percentage points on GDP at the end of 2021. In the recovery period, due to the redistributive effects of income, the family demand for public transport is expected to grow post- COVID-19 outbreak, while the demand for private transport is reduced, especially in the basket of goods of the poorest households. Vehicle, bus, and aircraft manufacture seems sensitive to the recovery time of the demand for transport services with public agglomerations.
ABSTRACT
A trajetória populacional futura e as mudanças climáticas são aspectos que geram incertezas quanto aos seus prováveis efeitos sobre a economia, especialmente a produção agrícola e indústria de alimentos. O artigo simula os efeitos de cenários populacionais e um de mudanças climáticas a partir do modelo de equilíbrio geral computável GTAP. É construída uma versão do GTAP 10 para reconhecer as atividades da agropecuária e silvicultura e indústria de alimentos, além de oito regiões denominadas blocos econômicos agrícolas, construídos a partir de técnicas de análise multivariada. As simulações dinâmicas do desvio acumulado entre o baseline e os cenários de política até 2050 apontaram, isoladamente, efeitos negativos generalizados das mudanças climáticas sobre o PIB e atividades econômicas dos blocos. Os resultados dos cenários populacionais indicaram que os blocos constituídos por países mais ricos e com economias mais diversificadas tenderiam a ganhar em detrimento dos demais em termos de PIB. Por outro lado, seria incentivada, de forma generalizada, a produção da agropecuária e silvicultura e da indústria de alimentos dos blocos. Em termos conjuntos, os efeitos negativos das mudanças climáticas tenderiam a superar os efeitos positivos dos cenários populacionais e de forma mais intensiva naqueles que projetam menor crescimento populacional.
The future population trajectory, as well as climate change, are aspects that generate uncertainties as to their probable effects on the economy, especially on agricultural production and food industry. This paper simulates the effects of population scenarios and one of climate change using the GTAP computable general equilibrium model. A version of GTAP 10 was created to identify Agriculture, Forestry and Food Industry activities, and eight regions, called Agricultural Economic Blocks, using multivariate analysis techniques. The dynamic simulations of the accumulated deviation between thebaseline and the policy scenarios up to 2050 in isolation indicated widespread negative effects of climate change on the GDP and economic activities of the blocs. The results of the population scenarios indicated that the blocks made up of richer countries and with more diversified economies would tend to win at the expense of the others in terms of GDP. On the other hand, they would generally encourage the blocks' Agriculture, Forestry and Food Industry productions. Taken together, the negative effects of climate change would tend to outweigh the positive effects of population scenarios and more intensively on those which project less population growth.
La trayectoria futura de la población así como el cambio climático son aspectos que generan incertidumbres con respecto a sus probables efectos en la economía, especialmente en la producción agrícola y en la industria alimentaria. El artículo simula los efectos de los escenarios de población y del cambio climático utilizando el modelo de equilibrio general computable GTAP. Se creó una versión de GTAP 10 para reconocer las actividades de la agricultura y la silvicultura y la industria alimentaria en ocho regiones llamadas bloques económicos agrícolas, construidas con técnicas de análisis multivariados. Las simulaciones dinámicas de la desviación acumulada entre la línea de base y los escenarios de política hasta 2050 solo indicaron efectos negativos generalizados del cambio climático sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) y las actividades económicas de los bloques. Los resultados de los escenarios de población indicaron que los bloques formados por países más ricos y con economías más diversificadas tenderían a ganar a expensas de los demás en términos de PIB. Por otro lado, alentarían, generalizadamente, la producción de agricultura y silvicultura y también la industria alimentaria de los bloques. Tomados en conjunto, los efectos negativos del cambio climático tenderían a superar los efectos positivos de los escenarios de población, más intensamente en aquellos que proyectan un menor crecimiento de la población.