Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households.

Since its emergence, the phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by seemingly healthy individuals has become a major challenge in the effort to achieve control of the pandemic. Identifying the modes of transmission that drive this phenomenon is a perquisite in devising effective control measures, but to date it is still under debate. To address this problem, we have formulated a detailed mathematical model of discrete human actions (such as coughs, sneezes, and touching) and the continuous decay of the virus in the environment. To take into account those discrete and continuous events we have extended the common modelling approach and employed a hybrid stochastic mathematical framework. This allowed us to calculate higher order statistics which are crucial for the reconstruction of the observed distributions. We focused on transmission within a household, the venue with the highest risk of infection and validated the model results against the observed secondary attack rate and the serial interval distribution. Detailed analysis of the model results identified the dominant driver of pre-symptomatic transmission as the contact route via hand-face transfer and showed that wearing masks and avoiding physical contact are an effective prevention strategy. These results provide a sound scientific basis to the present recommendations of the WHO and the CDC.

A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel.

OBJECTIVES: Despite an initial success, Israel's quarantine-isolation COVID-19 policy has abruptly collapsed. This study's aim is to identify the causes that led to this exponential rise in the accumulation of confirmed cases. METHODS: Epidemiological investigation reports were used to reconstruct chains of transmission as well as assess the net contribution of local infections relative to imported cases, infected travelers arriving from abroad. A mathematical model was implemented in order to describe the efficiency of the quarantine-isolation policy and the inflow of imported cases. The model's simulations included two scenarios for the actual time series of the symptomatic cases, providing insights into the conditions that lead to the abrupt change. RESULTS: The abrupt change followed a Jewish holiday, Purim, in which many public gatherings were held. According to the first scenario, the accumulation of confirmed cases before Purim was driven by imported cases resulting in a controlled regime, with an effective reproduction number, Re, of 0.69. In the second scenario, which followed Purim, a continuous rise of the local to imported cases ratio began, which led to an exponential growth regime characterized by an Re of 4.34. It was found that the change of regime cannot be attributed to super-spreader events, as these consisted of approximately 5% of the primary cases, which resulted in 17% of the secondary cases. CONCLUSIONS: A general lesson for health policymakers should be that even a short lapse in public responsiveness can lead to dire consequences.

Extended 3D-PTV for direct measurements of Lagrangian statistics of canopy turbulence in a wind tunnel.

Direct estimation of Lagrangian turbulence statistics is essential for the proper modeling of dispersion and transport in highly obstructed canopy flows. However, Lagrangian flow measurements demand very high rates of data acquisition, resulting in bottlenecks that prevented the estimation of Lagrangian statistics in canopy flows hitherto. We report on a new extension to the 3D Particle Tracking Velocimetry (3D-PTV) method, featuring real-time particle segmentation that outputs centroids and sizes of tracer particles and performed on dedicated hardware during high-speed digital video acquisition from multiple cameras. The proposed extension results in four orders of magnitude reduction in data transfer rate that enables to perform substantially longer experimental runs, facilitating measurements of convergent statistics. The extended method is demonstrated through an experimental wind tunnel investigation of the Lagrangian statistics in a heterogeneous canopy flow. We observe that acceleration statistics are affected by the mean shear at the top of the canopy layer and that Lagrangian particle dispersion at small scales is dominated by turbulence in the wake of the roughness elements. This approach enables to overcome major shortcomings from Eulerian-based measurements which rely on assumptions such as the Taylor's frozen turbulence hypothesis, which is known to fail in highly turbulent flows.

A new theoretical framework for modeling respiratory protection based on the beta distribution.

The problem of modeling respiratory protection is well known and has been dealt with extensively in the literature. Often the efficiency of respiratory protection is quantified in terms of penetration, defined as the proportion of an ambient contaminant concentration that penetrates the respiratory protection equipment. Typically, the penetration modeling framework in the literature is based on the assumption that penetration measurements follow the lognormal distribution. However, the analysis in this study leads to the conclusion that the lognormal assumption is not always valid, making it less adequate for analyzing respiratory protection measurements. This work presents a formulation of the problem from first principles, leading to a stochastic differential equation whose solution is the probability density function of the beta distribution. The data of respiratory protection experiments were reexamined, and indeed the beta distribution was found to provide the data a better fit than the lognormal. We conclude with a suggestion for a new theoretical framework for modeling respiratory protection.

The mechanism of nucleophilic displacements at phosphorus in chloro-substituted methylphosphonate esters: P-O vs P-C bond cleavage: a DFT study.

Potential energy surfaces for the nucleophilic displacements at phosphorus in dimethyl methyl-, chloromethyl-, dichloromethyl-, and trichloromethylphosphonates have been computed at the B3LYP/6-31+G* level of theory, using IEF-PCM to account for the solvent effect. The results reveal that sequential addition of chlorine substituents on the methyl phosphonates increases the stability of transition states and intermediates which facilitate P-C bond cleavage. Thus, while nonsubstituted dimethyl methylphosphonate and dimethyl chloromethylphosphonate may undergo exclusive P-O bond cleavage, the trichlorinated analogue exclusively undergoes P-C bond dissociation. Dichloromethylphosphonic acid derivatives were found to be borderline cases: while P-O fission is the preferred process, P-C scission might also be feasible. The increase in stability of the corresponding transition states and intermediates can account for the enhancement in the apicophilicity of the methyl ligand upon substitution with chlorine atoms.