An immune-protein score combining TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP for predicting severe COVID-19 disease.

COVID-19 patients are oftentimes over- or under-treated due to a deficit in predictive management tools. This study reports derivation of an algorithm that integrates the host levels of TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP into a single numeric score that is an early indicator of severe outcome for COVID-19 patients and can identify patients at-risk to deteriorate. 394 COVID-19 patients were eligible; 29% meeting a severe outcome (intensive care unit admission/non-invasive or invasive ventilation/death). The score's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.86, superior to IL-6 (AUC 0.77; p = 0.033) and CRP (AUC 0.78; p < 0.001). Likelihood of severe outcome increased significantly (p < 0.001) with higher scores. The score differentiated severe patients who further deteriorated from those who improved (p = 0.004) and projected 14-day survival probabilities (p < 0.001). The score accurately predicted COVID-19 patients at-risk for severe outcome, and therefore has potential to facilitate timely care escalation and de-escalation and appropriate resource allocation.

A point-of-need platform for rapid measurement of a host-protein score that differentiates bacterial from viral infection: Analytical evaluation.

The objective was to evaluate the analytical performance of a new point-of-need platform for rapid and accurate measurement of a host-protein score that differentiates between bacterial and viral infection. The system comprises a dedicated test cartridge (MeMed BV®) and an analyzer (MeMed Key®). In each run, three host proteins (TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP) are measured quantitatively and a combinational score (0-100) computed that indicates the likelihood of Bacterial versus Viral infection (BV score). Serum samples collected from patients with acute infection representing viral (0 ≤ score < 35), equivocal (35 ≤ score ≤ 65), or bacterial (65 < score ≤ 100) scores based on pre-defined score cutoffs were employed for the analytical evaluation studies as well as samples from healthy individuals. To assess reproducibility, triplicate runs were conducted at 3 different sites, on 2 analyzers per site over 5 non-consecutive days. Lower limit of quantitation (LLoQ) and analytical measurement range were established utilizing recombinant proteins. Sample stability was evaluated using patient samples representative of BV score range (0-100). MeMed Key® and MeMed BV® passed the acceptance criteria for each study. In the reproducibility study, TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP measurements ranged with coefficient of variation from 9.7 to 12.7%, 4.6 to 6.2% and 5.0 to 11.6%, respectively. LLoQ concentrations were established as 15 pg/mL, 100 pg/mL and 1 mg/L for TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP, respectively. In summary, the analytical performance reported here, along with diagnostic accuracy established in the Apollo clinical validation study (NCT04690569), supports that MeMed BV® run on MeMed Key® can serve as a tool to assist clinicians in differentiating between bacterial and viral infection.

Expert panel diagnosis demonstrated high reproducibility as reference standard in infectious diseases.

OBJECTIVE: If a gold standard is lacking in a diagnostic test accuracy study, expert diagnosis is frequently used as reference standard. However, interobserver and intraobserver agreements are imperfect. The aim of this study was to quantify the reproducibility of a panel diagnosis for pediatric infectious diseases. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Pediatricians from six countries adjudicated a diagnosis (i.e., bacterial infection, viral infection, or indeterminate) for febrile children. Diagnosis was reached when the majority of panel members came to the same diagnosis, leaving others inconclusive. We evaluated intraobserver and intrapanel agreement with 6 weeks and 3 years' time intervals. We calculated the proportion of inconclusive diagnosis for a three-, five-, and seven-expert panel. RESULTS: For both time intervals (i.e., 6 weeks and 3 years), intrapanel agreement was higher (kappa 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81-0.94 and 0.80, 95%CI: NA) compared to intraobserver agreement (kappa 0.77, 95%CI: 0.71-0.83 and 0.65, 95%CI: 0.52-0.78). After expanding the three-expert panel to five or seven experts, the proportion of inconclusive diagnoses (11%) remained the same. CONCLUSION: A panel consisting of three experts provides more reproducible diagnoses than an individual expert in children with lower respiratory tract infection or fever without source. Increasing the size of a panel beyond three experts has no major advantage for diagnosis reproducibility.

A novel host-proteome signature for distinguishing between acute bacterial and viral infections.

Bacterial and viral infections are often clinically indistinguishable, leading to inappropriate patient management and antibiotic misuse. Bacterial-induced host proteins such as procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and Interleukin-6, are routinely used to support diagnosis of infection. However, their performance is negatively affected by inter-patient variability, including time from symptom onset, clinical syndrome, and pathogens. Our aim was to identify novel viral-induced host proteins that can complement bacterial-induced proteins to increase diagnostic accuracy. Initially, we conducted a bioinformatic screen to identify putative circulating host immune response proteins. The resulting 600 candidates were then quantitatively screened for diagnostic potential using blood samples from 1002 prospectively recruited patients with suspected acute infectious disease and controls with no apparent infection. For each patient, three independent physicians assigned a diagnosis based on comprehensive clinical and laboratory investigation including PCR for 21 pathogens yielding 319 bacterial, 334 viral, 112 control and 98 indeterminate diagnoses; 139 patients were excluded based on predetermined criteria. The best performing host-protein was TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86 to 0.91), which was consistently up-regulated in viral infected patients. We further developed a multi-protein signature using logistic-regression on half of the patients and validated it on the remaining half. The signature with the highest precision included both viral- and bacterial-induced proteins: TRAIL, Interferon gamma-induced protein-10, and CRP (AUC of 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92 to 0.96). The signature was superior to any of the individual proteins (P<0.001), as well as routinely used clinical parameters and their combinations (P<0.001). It remained robust across different physiological systems, times from symptom onset, and pathogens (AUCs 0.87-1.0). The accurate differential diagnosis provided by this novel combination of viral- and bacterial-induced proteins has the potential to improve management of patients with acute infections and reduce antibiotic misuse.

Bolus guide: a novel insulin bolus dosing decision support tool based on selection of carbohydrate ranges.

BACKGROUND: Optimal continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy emphasizes the relationship between insulin dose and carbohydrate consumption. One widely used tool (bolus calculator) requires the user to enter discrete carbohydrate values; however, many patients might not estimate carbohydrates accurately. This study assessed carbohydrate estimation accuracy in type 1 diabetes CSII users and compared simulated blood glucose (BG) outcomes using the bolus calculator and the "bolus guide," an alternative system based on ranges of carbohydrate load. METHODS: Patients (n = 60) estimated the carbohydrate load of a representative sample of meals of known carbohydrate value. The estimated error distribution [coefficient of variation (CV)] was the basis for a computer simulation (n = 1.6 million observations) of insulin recommendations for the bolus guide and bolus calculator, translated into outcome blood glucose (OBG) ranges (< or =60, 61-200, >201 mg/dl). Patients (n = 30) completed questionnaires assessing satisfaction with the bolus guide. RESULTS: The CV of typical meals ranged from 27.9% to 44.5%. The percentage of simulated OBG for the calculator and the bolus guide in the <60 mg/dl range were 20.8% and 17.2%, respectively, and 13.8% and 15.8%, respectively, in the >200 mg/dl range. The mean and median scores of all bolus guide satisfaction items and ease of learning and use were 4.17 and 4.2, respectively (of 5.0). CONCLUSION: The bolus guide recommendation based on carbohydrate range selection is substantially similar to the calculator based on carbohydrate point estimation and appears to be highly accepted by type 1 diabetes insulin pump users.

A double-blind, delayed-start trial of rasagiline in Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: A therapy that slows disease progression is the major unmet need in Parkinson's disease. METHODS: In this double-blind trial, we examined the possibility that rasagiline has disease-modifying effects in Parkinson's disease. A total of 1176 subjects with untreated Parkinson's disease were randomly assigned to receive rasagiline (at a dose of either 1 mg or 2 mg per day) for 72 weeks (the early-start group) or placebo for 36 weeks followed by rasagiline (at a dose of either 1 mg or 2 mg per day) for 36 weeks (the delayed-start group). To determine a positive result with either dose, the early-start treatment group had to meet each of three hierarchical end points of the primary analysis based on the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS, a 176-point scale, with higher numbers indicating more severe disease): superiority to placebo in the rate of change in the UPDRS score between weeks 12 and 36, superiority to delayed-start treatment in the change in the score between baseline and week 72, and noninferiority to delayed-start treatment in the rate of change in the score between weeks 48 and 72. RESULTS: Early-start treatment with rasagiline at a dose of 1 mg per day met all end points in the primary analysis: a smaller mean (+/-SE) increase (rate of worsening) in the UPDRS score between weeks 12 and 36 (0.09+/-0.02 points per week in the early-start group vs. 0.14+/-0.01 points per week in the placebo group, P=0.01), less worsening in the score between baseline and week 72 (2.82+/-0.53 points in the early-start group vs. 4.52+/-0.56 points in the delayed-start group, P=0.02), and noninferiority between the two groups with respect to the rate of change in the UPDRS score between weeks 48 and 72 (0.085+/-0.02 points per week in the early-start group vs. 0.085+/-0.02 points per week in the delayed-start group, P<0.001). All three end points were not met with rasagiline at a dose of 2 mg per day, since the change in the UPDRS score between baseline and week 72 was not significantly different in the two groups (3.47+/-0.50 points in the early-start group and 3.11+/-0.50 points in the delayed-start group, P=0.60). CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment with rasagiline at a dose of 1 mg per day provided benefits that were consistent with a possible disease-modifying effect, but early treatment with rasagiline at a dose of 2 mg per day did not. Because the two doses were associated with different outcomes, the study results must be interpreted with caution. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00256204.)

The association of DNA sequence variation at the MAOA genetic locus with quantitative behavioural traits in normal males.

Monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) catalyses the oxidative deamination of biogenic amines including neurotransmitters, mainly norepinephrine and serotonin in the brain and peripheral tissues. A nonsense mutation in the gene was shown to be involved in a rare X-linked behavioural syndrome, which includes impaired impulse control, aggression and borderline mental retardation (Brunner syndrome). Several recent studies have shown the association of genetic variation of a VNTR in the gene promoter with various pathological behavioural traits. In the present study the association of MAOA genetic variation with a large set of quantitative behavioural traits in normal individuals has been examined. DNA samples from 421 unrelated males were genotyped for 14 SNPs and for the promoter VNTR at the MAOA locus. An additional 16 SNPs were genotyped at apparently neutral loci across the X chromosome to serve as a genomic control for possible false positive associations due to population structure. Behavioural traits were measured using the NEO psychometric questionnaire, which is based on a 5-axis model of personality, and consists of 30 different quantitative traits. There was a robust association of the A2 ("straightforwardness") facet with common allelic variants at the promoter VNTR. Most of the tested traits were not associated with the VNTR despite reasonable power, thus demonstrating that the VNTR influence on quantitative behavioural traits in normal males may be very specific. In contrast, several traits of the C ("conscientiousness") axis were associated with less common SNP-defined haplotypes. Hence, it appears that common genetic variation at the VNTR contributes to the behavioural attribute of "straightforwardness", while rare haplotypes defined by SNPs downstream of the transcription start site may contribute to "conscientiousness". This study is used to address the validation, interpretation and limitation of genetic association studies of quantitative behavioural traits.

Assessment of peripheral artery tonometry in the detection of treadmill exercise-induced myocardial ischemia.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the added diagnostic value of peripheral artery tonometric (PAT) measurements, based on finger pulsatile arterial volume changes, to standard 12-lead stress electrocardiography (ECG), for detecting exercise-induced myocardial ischemia, using single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) as the standard of comparison in a double-blinded, multicenter protocol. METHODS: An automated algorithm for identifying myocardial ischemia from PAT was derived from 345 training cases. The PAT outcome was combined with the ECG result (ischemic, nonischemic, or equivocal), giving a PAT-enhanced value. A threshold of normality was determined to optimize agreement with the SPECT results in the training sample. The PAT-enhanced analysis was then validated in 616 subjects, only two of whom had technically unacceptable PAT studies. RESULTS: In the validation cohort, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the PAT-enhanced diagnosis yielded an area under the curve of 0.72, a sensitivity of 63.5%, compared with 44.7% for ECG alone (p < 0.0001), and a specificity of 67.8% common to both ECG and PAT-enhanced diagnoses. Similar results were found in the training sample. Although over 10% of validation subjects had equivocal ECG results, with the aid of PAT, it was possible to provide diagnostic information for all but one subject. CONCLUSIONS: Peripheral artery tonometry may be useful for improving the diagnosis of exercise-induced myocardial ischemia by both enhancing the sensitivity without impairing the specificity and increasing the percentage of definitive test results.