New Capabilities in MT3D-USGS for Simulating Unsaturated-Zone Heat Transport.

Changes in climate and land use will alter groundwater heat transport dynamics in the future. These changes will in turn affect watershed processes (e.g., nutrient cycling) as well as watershed characteristics (e.g., distribution and persistence of cold-water habitat). Thus, groundwater flow and heat transport models at watershed scales that can characterize and quantify thermal impacts of surface temperature change on groundwater system temperatures may support forecasting changes to groundwater-linked ecosystems in riparian zones, streams, and lakes. Including unsaturated zone processes has previously been shown to be important for properly determining the timing and magnitude of groundwater recharge (Hunt et al. 2008). Similarly, heat transport dynamics in the saturated-zone, as well as connected surface-water systems, can be appreciably influenced by unsaturated-zone processes; in this way the unsaturated zone forms an inextricable link between the land surface where change occurs and the groundwater system that transmits that change. This paper presents new capabilities for the existing MT3D-USGS transport simulator by adding functionality for simulating heat transport through the unsaturated zone. New simulation capabilities are verified through comparison of simulation results with those of the variably saturated heat transport simulator VS2DH under steady and transient conditions for both water and heat flow. The new capabilities are assessed using a number of conceptualizations and include evaluations of convective and conductive heat flow. These additional capabilities increase the utility for applied watershed-scale simulations, which in turn may facilitate more realistic characterizations of temperature change on thermally sensitive ecosystems, such as stream habitat.

A Simple Method for Simulating Groundwater Interactions with Fens to Forecast Development Effects.

Protection of fens-wetlands dependent on groundwater discharge-requires characterization of groundwater sources and stresses. Because instrumentation and numerical modeling of fens is labor intensive, easy-to-apply methods that model fen distribution and their vulnerability to development are desirable. Here we demonstrate that fen areas can be simulated using existing steady-state MODFLOW models when the unsaturated zone flow (UZF) package is included. In cells where the water table is near land surface, the UZF package calculates a head difference and scaled conductance at these "seepage drain" cells to generate average rates of vertical seepage to the land. This formulation, which represents an alternative to blanketing the MODFLOW domain with drains, requires very little input from the user because unsaturated flow-routing is inactive and results are primarily driven by easily obtained topographic information. Like the drain approach, it has the advantage that the distribution of seepage areas is not predetermined by the modeler, but rather emerges from simulated heads. Beyond the drain approach, it takes account of intracell land surface variation to explicitly quantify multiple surficial flows corresponding to infiltration, rejected recharge, recharge and land-surface seepage. Application of the method to a basin in southeastern Wisconsin demonstrates how it can be used as a decision-support tool to first, reproduce fen distribution and, second, forecast drawdown and reduced seepage at fens in response to shallow pumping.

A Semi-Structured MODFLOW-USG Model to Evaluate Local Water Sources to Wells for Decision Support.

In order to better represent the configuration of the stream network and simulate local groundwater-surface water interactions, a version of MODFLOW with refined spacing in the topmost layer was applied to a Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) regional groundwater-flow model developed by the U.S. Geological. Regional MODFLOW models commonly use coarse grids over large areas; this coarse spacing precludes model application to local management issues (e.g., surface-water depletion by wells) without recourse to labor-intensive inset models. Implementation of an unstructured formulation within the MODFLOW framework (MODFLOW-USG) allows application of regional models to address local problems. A "semi-structured" approach (uniform lateral spacing within layers, different lateral spacing among layers) was tested using the LMB regional model. The parent 20-layer model with uniform 5000-foot (1524-m) lateral spacing was converted to 4 layers with 500-foot (152-m) spacing in the top glacial (Quaternary) layer, where surface water features are located, overlying coarser resolution layers representing deeper deposits. This semi-structured version of the LMB model reproduces regional flow conditions, whereas the finer resolution in the top layer improves the accuracy of the simulated response of surface water to shallow wells. One application of the semi-structured LMB model is to provide statistical measures of the correlation between modeled inputs and the simulated amount of water that wells derive from local surface water. The relations identified in this paper serve as the basis for metamodels to predict (with uncertainty) surface-water depletion in response to shallow pumping within and potentially beyond the modeled area, see Fienen et al. (2015a).

The vertical hydraulic conductivity of an aquitard at two spatial scales.

Aquitards protect underlying aquifers from contaminants and limit recharge to those aquifers. Understanding the mechanisms and quantity of ground water flow across aquitards to underlying aquifers is essential for ground water planning and assessment. We present results of laboratory testing for shale hydraulic conductivities, a methodology for determining the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K(v)) of aquitards at regional scales and demonstrate the importance of discrete flow pathways across aquitards. A regional shale aquitard in southeastern Wisconsin, the Maquoketa Formation, was studied to define the role that an aquitard plays in a regional ground water flow system. Calibration of a regional ground water flow model for southeastern Wisconsin using both predevelopment steady-state and transient targets suggested that the regional K(v) of the Maquoketa Formation is 1.8 x 10(-11) m/s. The core-scale measurements of the K(v) of the Maquoketa Formation range from 1.8 x 10(-14) to 4.1 x 10(-12) m/s. Flow through some additional pathways in the shale, potential fractures or open boreholes, can explain the apparent increase of the regional-scale K(v). Based on well logs, erosional windows or high-conductivity zones seem unlikely pathways. Fractures cutting through the entire thickness of the shale spaced 5 km apart with an aperture of 50 microns could provide enough flow across the aquitard to match that provided by an equivalent bulk K(v) of 1.8 x 10(-11) m/s. In a similar fashion, only 50 wells of 0.1 m radius open to aquifers above and below the shale and evenly spaced 10 km apart across southeastern Wisconsin can match the model K(v).

Simulating ground water-lake interactions: approaches and insights.

Approaches for modeling lake-ground water interactions have evolved significantly from early simulations that used fixed lake stages specified as constant head to sophisticated LAK packages for MODFLOW. Although model input can be complex, the LAK package capabilities and output are superior to methods that rely on a fixed lake stage and compare well to other simple methods where lake stage can be calculated. Regardless of the approach, guidelines presented here for model grid size, location of three-dimensional flow, and extent of vertical capture can facilitate the construction of appropriately detailed models that simulate important lake-ground water interactions without adding unnecessary complexity. In addition to MODFLOW approaches, lake simulation has been formulated in terms of analytic elements. The analytic element lake package had acceptable agreement with a published LAKI problem, even though there were differences in the total lake conductance and number of layers used in the two models. The grid size used in the original LAKI problem, however, violated a grid size guideline presented in this paper. Grid sensitivity analyses demonstrated that an appreciable discrepancy in the distribution of stream and lake flux was related to the large grid size used in the original LAKI problem. This artifact is expected regardless of MODFLOW LAK package used. When the grid size was reduced, a finite-difference formulation approached the analytic element results. These insights and guidelines can help ensure that the proper lake simulation tool is being selected and applied.