Role of Low Endothelial Shear Stress and Plaque Characteristics in the Prediction of Nonculprit Major Adverse Cardiac Events: The PROSPECT Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether low endothelial shear stress (ESS) adds independent prognostication for future major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in coronary lesions in patients with high-risk acute coronary syndrome (ACS) from the United States and Europe. BACKGROUND: Low ESS is a proinflammatory, proatherogenic stimulus associated with coronary plaque development, progression, and destabilization in human-like animal models and in humans. Previous natural history studies including baseline ESS characterization investigated low-risk patients. METHODS: In the PROSPECT (Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree) study, 697 patients with ACS underwent 3-vessel intracoronary imaging. Independent predictors of MACE attributable to untreated nonculprit (nc) coronary lesions during 3.4-year follow-up were large plaque burden (PB), small minimum lumen area (MLA), and thin-cap fibroatheroma (TCFA) morphology. In this analysis, baseline ESS of nc lesions leading to new MACE (nc-MACE lesions) and randomly selected control nc lesions without MACE (nc-non-MACE lesions) were calculated. A propensity score for ESS was constructed for each lesion, and the relationship between ESS and subsequent nc-MACE was examined. RESULTS: A total of 145 lesions were analyzed in 97 patients: 23 nc-MACE lesions (13 TCFAs, 10 thick-cap fibroatheromas [ThCFAs]), and 122 nc-non-MACE lesions (63 TCFAs, 59 ThCFAs). Low local ESS (<1.3 Pa) was strongly associated with subsequent nc-MACE compared with physiological/high ESS (≥1.3 Pa) (23 of 101 [22.8%]) versus (0 of 44 [0%]). In propensity-adjusted Cox regression, low ESS was strongly associated with MACE (hazard ratio: 4.34; 95% confidence interval: 1.89 to 10.00; p < 0.001). Categorizing plaques by anatomic risk (high risk: ≥2 high-risk characteristics PB ≥70%, MLA ≤4 mm2, or TCFA), high anatomic risk, and low ESS were prognostically synergistic: 3-year nc-MACE rates were 52.1% versus 14.4% versus 0.0% in high-anatomic risk/low-ESS, low-anatomic risk/low-ESS, and physiological/high-ESS lesions, respectively (p < 0.0001). No lesion without low ESS led to nc-MACE during follow-up, regardless of PB, MLA, or lesion phenotype at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Local low ESS provides incremental risk stratification of untreated coronary lesions in high-risk patients, beyond measures of PB, MLA, and morphology.

Heterogeneity of Coronary Plaque Morphology and Natural History: Current Understanding and Clinical Significance.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Despite the important progress in identifying high-risk atherosclerotic plaques, many key elements are elusive. Advanced imaging modalities provide valuable information about the anatomic and functional plaque characteristics and underscore the presence of multiple plaque morphologies. However, how the heterogeneity of atherosclerotic plaque can alter our current understanding of coronary artery disease is not fully understood. RECENT FINDINGS: Along the length of an individual plaque, the morphology patterns display marked heterogeneity. Contrary to previous beliefs, plaque morphology is also highly dynamic over time, with the vast majority of high-risk plaques becoming quiescent and mild plaques becoming severely obstructive in a short period of time. Endothelial shear stress, a local hemodynamic factor known for its critical effects in plaque initiation and progression, also displays longitudinal heterogeneity contributing to the arterial wall response in all time points. Risk stratification of plaques based on the morphological characteristics at one region of the plaque, usually the minimal lumen diameter, and at one point in time may be misleading. The evaluation of both morphological and hemodynamic characteristics along the length of a plaque will improve the risk assessment of individual plaques.

Intravascular hemodynamics and coronary artery disease: New insights and clinical implications.

Intracoronary hemodynamics play a pivotal role in the initiation and progression of the atherosclerotic process. Low pro-inflammatory endothelial shear stress impacts vascular physiology and leads to the occurrence of coronary artery disease and its implications.

Effects of Low Endothelial Shear Stress After Stent Implantation on Subsequent Neointimal Hyperplasia and Clinical Outcomes in Humans.

BACKGROUND: In-stent hyperplasia (ISH) may develop in regions of low endothelial shear stress (ESS), but the relationship between the magnitude of low ESS, the extent of ISH, and subsequent clinical events has not been investigated. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed the association of poststent ESS with neointimal ISH and clinical outcomes in patients treated with percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). Three-dimensional coronary reconstruction was performed in 374 post-PCI patients at baseline and 6 to 10 months follow-up as part of the PREDICTION Study. Each vessel was divided into 1.5-mm-long segments, and we calculated the local ESS within each stented segment at baseline. At follow-up, we assessed ISH and the occurrence of a clinically indicated repeat PCI for in-stent restenosis. In 246 total stents (54 overlapping), 100 (40.7%) were bare-metal stents (BMS), 104 (42.3%) sirolimus-eluting stents, and 42 (17.1%) paclitaxel-eluting stents. In BMS, low ESS post-PCI at baseline was independently associated with ISH (ß=1.47 mm(2) per 1-Pa decrease; 95% CI, 0.38-2.56; P<0.01). ISH was minimal in drug-eluting stents. During follow-up, repeat PCI in BMS was performed in 21 stents (8.5%). There was no significant association between post-PCI ESS and in-stent restenosis requiring PCI. CONCLUSIONS: Low ESS after BMS implantation is associated with subsequent ISH. ISH is strongly inhibited by drug-eluting stents. Post-PCI ESS is not associated with in-stent restenosis requiring repeat PCI. ESS is an important determinant of ISH in BMS, but ISH of large magnitude to require PCI for in-stent restenosis is likely attributed to factors other than ESS within the stent.

Atherosclerotic plaque behind the stent changes after bare-metal and drug-eluting stent implantation in humans: Implications for late stent failure?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The natural history and the role of atherosclerotic plaque located behind the stent (PBS) are still poorly understood. We evaluated the serial changes in PBS following bare-metal (BMS) compared to first-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation and the impact of these changes on in-stent neointimal hyperplasia (NIH). METHODS: Three-dimensional coronary reconstruction by angiography and intravascular ultrasound was performed after intervention and at 6-10-month follow-up in 157 patients with 188 lesions treated with BMS (n = 89) and DES (n = 99). RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in PBS area (-7.2%; p < 0.001) and vessel area (-1.7%; p < 0.001) after BMS and a respective increase in both areas after DES implantation (6.1%; p < 0.001 and 4.1%; p < 0.001, respectively). The decrease in PBS area significantly predicted neointimal area at follow-up after BMS (ß: 0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10-0.20, p < 0.001) and DES (ß: 0.09; 95% CI: 0.07-0.11; p < 0.001) implantation. The decrease in PBS area was the most powerful predictor of significant NIH after BMS implantation (odds ratio: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.02-1.26; p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in PBS area after stent implantation is significantly associated with the magnitude of NIH development at follow-up. This finding raises the possibility of a communication between the lesion within the stent and the underlying native atherosclerotic plaque, and may have important implications regarding the pathobiology of in-stent restenosis and late/very late stent thrombosis.

Effect of the local hemodynamic environment on the de novo development and progression of eccentric coronary atherosclerosis in humans: insights from PREDICTION.

BACKGROUND: Eccentric distribution of atheroma has been associated with plaques likely to rupture and cause an acute coronary syndrome, but the factors responsible for the development of eccentricity remain unknown. Endothelial shear stress (ESS) drives plaque formation. We aimed to investigate the role of the local ESS characteristics in the de novo development and progressive worsening of plaque eccentricity in humans. METHODS: Vascular profiling (3-vessel 3D coronary reconstruction by angiography/intravascular ultrasound, and blood flow simulation for ESS computation) was performed in 374 patients at baseline & 6-10 months follow-up. At baseline, we identified (i) disease-free segments (n=2157), and (ii) diseased regions of luminal obstructions (n=408). RESULTS: In disease-free regions, baseline low ESS magnitude (p<0.001), marked ESS circumferential heterogeneity (p=0.001), and their interaction (p=0.026) were associated with an increased probability of de novo eccentric plaque formation at follow-up. In diseased regions, baseline low ESS (odds ratio [OR]: 2.33, p=0.003) and large plaque burden (OR: 2.46, p=0.002) were independent predictors of substantially increasing plaque eccentricity index with worsening lumen encroachment. This combined outcome was more frequent in obstructions with both features vs. all others (33 vs. 12%; p<0.001). The incidence of percutaneous coronary intervention in worsening obstructions with increasing plaque eccentricity was higher (13.3 vs. 4.3%, p=0.011). CONCLUSIONS: The local hemodynamic environment has a critical effect on the development of eccentric coronary plaques at both an early and advanced stage of atherosclerosis. Local ESS assessment could help in predicting sites prone to plaque disruption and acute coronary syndromes in humans.

How do we prevent the vulnerable atherosclerotic plaque from rupturing? Insights from in vivo assessments of plaque, vascular remodeling, and local endothelial shear stress.

Coronary atherosclerosis progresses both as slow, gradual enlargement of focal plaque and also as a more dynamic process with periodic abrupt changes in plaque geometry, size, and morphology. Systemic vasculoprotective therapies such as statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and antiplatelet agents are the cornerstone of prevention of plaque rupture and new adverse clinical outcomes, but such systemic therapies are insufficient to prevent the majority of new cardiac events. Invasive imaging methods have been able to identify both the anatomic features of high-risk plaque and the ongoing pathobiological stimuli responsible for progressive plaque inflammation and instability and may provide sufficient information to formulate preventive local mechanical strategies (eg, preemptive percutaneous coronary interventions) to avert cardiac events. Local endothelial shear stress (ESS) triggers vascular phenomena that synergistically exacerbate atherosclerosis toward an unstable phenotype. Specifically, low ESS augments lipid uptake and catabolism, induces plaque inflammation and oxidation, downregulates the production, upregulates the degradation of extracellular matrix, and increases cellular apoptosis ultimately leading to thin-cap fibroatheromas and/or endothelial erosions. Increases in blood thrombogenicity that result from either high or low ESS also contribute to plaque destabilization. An understanding of the actively evolving vascular phenomena, as well as the development of in vivo imaging methodologies to identify the presence and severity of the different processes, may enable early identification of a coronary plaque destined to acquire a high-risk state and allow for highly selective, focal preventive interventions to avert the adverse natural history of that particular plaque. In this review, we focus on the role of ESS in the pathobiologic processes responsible for plaque destabilization, leading either to accelerated plaque growth or to acute coronary events, and emphasize the potential to utilize in vivo risk stratification of individual coronary plaques to optimize prevention strategies to preclude new cardiac events.

Anatomically correct three-dimensional coronary artery reconstruction using frequency domain optical coherence tomographic and angiographic data: head-to-head comparison with intravascular ultrasound for endothelial shear stress assessment in humans.

AIMS: To develop a methodology that permits accurate 3-dimensional (3D) reconstruction from FD-OCT and angiographic data enabling reliable evaluation of the ESS distribution, and to compare the FD-OCT-derived models against the established models based on angiography/IVUS. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fifteen patients (17 coronary arteries) who underwent angiography, FD-OCT and IVUS examination during the same procedure were studied. The FD-OCT and IVUS lumen borders were placed onto the 3D luminal centreline derived from angiographic data. Three-dimensional geometry algorithms and anatomical landmarks were used to estimate the orientation of the borders appropriately. ESS was calculated using computational fluid dynamics. In 188 corresponding consecutive 3-mm segments, FD-OCT- and IVUS-derived models were highly correlated for lumen area (r=0.96) and local ESS (r=0.89) measurements. FD-OCT-based 3D reconstructions had a high diagnostic accuracy for detecting regions exposed to proatherogenic low ESS identified on the IVUS-based 3D models, considered as the gold standard (receiver operator characteristic area under the curve: 94.9%). CONCLUSIONS: FD-OCT-based 3D coronary reconstruction provides anatomically correct models and permits reliable ESS computation. ESS assessment in combination with the superior definition of plaque characteristics by FD-OCT is expected to provide valuable insights into the effect of the haemodynamic environment on the development and destabilisation of high-risk plaques.

Endothelial shear stress and coronary plaque characteristics in humans: combined frequency-domain optical coherence tomography and computational fluid dynamics study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the exposure of the entire vasculature to the atherogenic effects of systemic risk factors, atherosclerotic plaques preferentially develop at sites with disturbed flow. This study aimed at exploring in vivo the relationship between local endothelial shear stress (ESS) and coronary plaque characteristics in humans using computational fluid dynamics and frequency-domain optical coherence tomography. METHODS AND RESULTS: Three-dimensional coronary artery reconstruction was performed in 21 patients (24 arteries) presenting with acute coronary syndrome using frequency-domain optical coherence tomography and coronary angiography. Each coronary artery was divided into sequential 3-mm segments and analyzed for the assessment of local ESS and plaque characteristics. A total of 146 nonculprit segments were evaluated. Compared with segments with higher ESS [≥1 Pascal (Pa)], those with low ESS (<1 Pa) showed higher prevalence of lipid-rich plaques (37.5% versus 20.0%; P=0.019) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (12.5% versus 2.0%; P=0.037). Overall, lipid plaques in segments with low ESS had thinner fibrous cap (115 µm [63-166] versus 170 µm [107-219]; P=0.004) and higher macrophage density (normalized standard deviation: 8.4% [4.8-12.6] versus 6.2% [4.2-8.8]; P=0.017). Segments with low ESS showed more superficial calcifications (minimum calcification depth: 93 µm [50-140] versus 152 µm [105-258]; P=0.049) and tended to have higher prevalence of spotty calcifications (26.0% versus 12.0%; P=0.076). CONCLUSIONS: Coronary regions exposed to low ESS are associated with larger lipid burden, thinner fibrous cap, and higher prevalence of thin-cap fibroatheroma in humans. Frequency-domain optical coherence tomography-based assessment of ESS and wall characteristics may be useful in identifying vulnerable coronary regions. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01110538.

Synergistic effect of local endothelial shear stress and systemic hypercholesterolemia on coronary atherosclerotic plaque progression and composition in pigs.

BACKGROUND: Systemic risk factors and local hemodynamic factors both contribute to coronary atherosclerosis, but their possibly synergistic inter-relationship remains unknown. The purpose of this natural history study was to investigate the combined in-vivo effect of varying levels of systemic hypercholesterolemia and local endothelial shear stress (ESS) on subsequent plaque progression and histological composition. METHODS: Diabetic, hyperlipidemic swine with higher systemic total cholesterol (TC) (n=4) and relatively lower TC levels (n=5) underwent three-vessel intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) at 3-5 consecutive time-points in-vivo. ESS was calculated serially using computational fluid dynamics. 3-D reconstructed coronary arteries were divided into 3mm-long segments (n=595), which were stratified according to higher vs. relatively lower TC and low (<1.2Pa) vs. higher local ESS (≥1.2Pa). Arteries were harvested at 9months, and a subset of segments (n=114) underwent histopathologic analyses. RESULTS: Change of plaque volume (ΔPV) by IVUS over time was most pronounced in low-ESS segments from higher-TC animals. Notably, higher-ESS segments from higher-TC animals had greater ΔPV compared to low-ESS segments from lower-TC animals (p<0.001). The time-averaged ESS in segments that resulted in significant plaque increased with increasing TC levels (slope: 0.24Pa/100mg/dl; r=0.80; p<0.01). At follow-up, low-ESS segments from higher-TC animals had the highest mRNA levels of lipoprotein receptors and inflammatory mediators and, consequently, the greatest lipid accumulation and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: This study redefines the principle concept that "low" ESS promotes coronary plaque growth and vulnerability by demonstrating that: (i.) the pro-atherogenic threshold of low ESS is not uniform, but cholesterol-dependent; and (ii.) the atherogenic effects of local low ESS are amplified, and the athero-protective effects of higher ESS may be outweighed, by increasing cholesterol levels. Intense hypercholesterolemia and very low ESS are synergistic in favoring rapid atheroma progression and high-risk composition.

Thin-capped atheromata with reduced collagen content in pigs develop in coronary arterial regions exposed to persistently low endothelial shear stress.

OBJECTIVE: The mechanisms promoting the focal formation of rupture-prone coronary plaques in vivo remain incompletely understood. This study tested the hypothesis that coronary regions exposed to low endothelial shear stress (ESS) favor subsequent development of collagen-poor, thin-capped plaques. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Coronary angiography and 3-vessel intravascular ultrasound were serially performed at 5 consecutive time points in vivo in 5 diabetic, hypercholesterolemic pigs. ESS was calculated along the course of each artery with computational fluid dynamics at all 5 time points. At follow-up, 184 arterial segments with previously identified in vivo ESS underwent histopathologic analysis. Compared with other plaque types, eccentric thin-capped atheromata developed more in segments that experienced lower ESS during their evolution. Compared with lesions with higher preceding ESS, segments persistently exposed to low ESS (<1.2 Pa) exhibited reduced intimal smooth muscle cell content; marked intimal smooth muscle cell phenotypic modulation; attenuated procollagen-I gene expression; increased gene and protein expression of the interstitial collagenases matrix-metalloproteinase-1, -8, -13, and -14; increased collagenolytic activity; reduced collagen content; and marked thinning of the fibrous cap. CONCLUSIONS: Eccentric thin-capped atheromata, lesions particularly prone to rupture, form more frequently in coronary regions exposed to low ESS throughout their evolution. By promoting an imbalance of attenuated synthesis and augmented collagen breakdown, low ESS favors the focal evolution of early lesions toward plaques with reduced collagen content and thin fibrous caps-2 critical determinants of coronary plaque vulnerability.

A new methodology for accurate 3-dimensional coronary artery reconstruction using routine intravascular ultrasound and angiographic data: implications for widespread assessment of endothelial shear stress in humans.

AIMS: To develop and validate a new methodology that allows accurate 3-dimensional (3-D) coronary artery reconstruction using standard, simple angiographic and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) data acquired during routine catheterisation enabling reliable assessment of the endothelial shear stress (ESS) distribution. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-two patients (22 arteries: 7 LAD; 7 LCx; 8 RCA) who underwent angiography and IVUS examination were included. The acquired data were used for 3-D reconstruction using a conventional method and a new methodology that utilised the luminal 3-D centreline to place the detected IVUS borders and anatomical landmarks to estimate their orientation. The local ESS distribution was assessed by computational fluid dynamics. In corresponding consecutive 3 mm segments, lumen, plaque and ESS measurements in the 3-D models derived by the centreline approach were highly correlated to those derived from the conventional method (r>0.98 for all). The centreline methodology had a 99.5% diagnostic accuracy for identifying segments exposed to low ESS and provided similar estimations to the conventional method for the association between the change in plaque burden and ESS (centreline method: slope= -1.65%/Pa, p=0.078; conventional method: slope= -1.64%/Pa, p=0.084; p =0.69 for difference between the two methodologies). CONCLUSIONS: The centreline methodology provides geometrically correct models and permits reliable ESS computation. The ability to utilise data acquired during routine coronary angiography and IVUS examination will facilitate clinical investigation of the role of local ESS patterns in the natural history of coronary atherosclerosis.

Relation of distribution of coronary blood flow volume to coronary artery dominance.

Coronary artery dominance influences the amount and anatomic location of myocardium that is perfused by the left or right coronary circulation. However, it is unknown whether coronary artery dominance also influences the distribution of coronary blood flow volume. The aim of this study was to evaluate volumetric coronary blood flow in 1,322 vessels from 496 patients in the Prediction of Progression of Coronary Artery Disease and Clinical Outcomes Using Vascular Profiling of Endothelial Shear Stress and Arterial Wall Morphology (PREDICTION) study. Patients were divided into 2 groups (right-dominant and left-dominant or balanced circulation). Coronary blood flow volume was calculated by coronary segment volume measurement using angiography and intravascular ultrasound and the contrast transit time through the segment. Coronary blood flow in the left circumflex coronary artery was significantly higher in left-dominant or balanced circulation than in right-dominant circulation (113 ± 43 vs 72 ± 37 ml/min, p <0.001), whereas flow in the right coronary artery was significantly lower in left-dominant or balanced circulation than in right-dominant circulation (56 ± 40 vs 113 ± 49 ml/min, p = 0.003). There was no significant difference in the left anterior descending coronary artery. In conclusion, coronary artery dominance has an impact on coronary blood flow volume in the left circumflex and right coronary arteries but not in the left anterior descending coronary artery. These findings suggest that the extent of myocardial perfusion area is associated with coronary blood flow volume.

Endothelial shear stress in the evolution of coronary atherosclerotic plaque and vascular remodelling: current understanding and remaining questions.

The heterogeneity of plaque formation, the vascular remodelling response to plaque formation, and the consequent phenotype of plaque instability attest to the extraordinarily complex pathobiology of plaque development and progression, culminating in different clinical coronary syndromes. Atherosclerotic plaques predominantly form in regions of low endothelial shear stress (ESS), whereas regions of moderate/physiological and high ESS are generally protected. Low ESS-induced compensatory expansive remodelling plays an important role in preserving lumen dimensions during plaque progression, but when the expansive remodelling becomes excessive promotes continued influx of lipids into the vessel wall, vulnerable plaque formation and potential precipitation of an acute coronary syndrome. Advanced plaques which start to encroach into the lumen experience high ESS at their most stenotic region, which appears to promote plaque destabilization. This review describes the role of ESS from early atherogenesis to early plaque formation, plaque progression to advanced high-risk stenotic or non-stenotic plaque, and plaque destabilization. The critical implication of the vascular remodelling response to plaque growth is also discussed. Current developments in technology to characterize local ESS and vascular remodelling in vivo may provide a rationale for innovative diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for coronary patients that aim to prevent clinical coronary syndromes.

Shear-activated nanotherapeutics for drug targeting to obstructed blood vessels.

Obstruction of critical blood vessels due to thrombosis or embolism is a leading cause of death worldwide. Here, we describe a biomimetic strategy that uses high shear stress caused by vascular narrowing as a targeting mechanism--in the same way platelets do--to deliver drugs to obstructed blood vessels. Microscale aggregates of nanoparticles were fabricated to break up into nanoscale components when exposed to abnormally high fluid shear stress. When coated with tissue plasminogen activator and administered intravenously in mice, these shear-activated nanotherapeutics induce rapid clot dissolution in a mesenteric injury model, restore normal flow dynamics, and increase survival in an otherwise fatal mouse pulmonary embolism model. This biophysical strategy for drug targeting, which lowers required doses and minimizes side effects while maximizing drug efficacy, offers a potential new approach for treatment of life-threatening diseases that result from acute vascular occlusion.

Prediction of progression of coronary artery disease and clinical outcomes using vascular profiling of endothelial shear stress and arterial plaque characteristics: the PREDICTION Study.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic plaques progress in a highly individual manner. The purposes of the Prediction of Progression of Coronary Artery Disease and Clinical Outcome Using Vascular Profiling of Shear Stress and Wall Morphology (PREDICTION) Study were to determine the role of local hemodynamic and vascular characteristics in coronary plaque progression and to relate plaque changes to clinical events. METHODS AND RESULTS: Vascular profiling, using coronary angiography and intravascular ultrasound, was used to reconstruct each artery and calculate endothelial shear stress and plaque/remodeling characteristics in vivo. Three-vessel vascular profiling (2.7 arteries per patient) was performed at baseline in 506 patients with an acute coronary syndrome treated with a percutaneous coronary intervention and in a subset of 374 (74%) consecutive patients 6 to 10 months later to assess plaque natural history. Each reconstructed artery was divided into sequential 3-mm segments for serial analysis. One-year clinical follow-up was completed in 99.2%. Symptomatic clinical events were infrequent: only 1 (0.2%) cardiac death; 4 (0.8%) patients with new acute coronary syndrome in nonstented segments; and 15 (3.0%) patients hospitalized for stable angina. Increase in plaque area (primary end point) was predicted by baseline large plaque burden; decrease in lumen area (secondary end point) was independently predicted by baseline large plaque burden and low endothelial shear stress. Large plaque size and low endothelial shear stress independently predicted the exploratory end points of increased plaque burden and worsening of clinically relevant luminal obstructions treated with a percutaneous coronary intervention at follow-up. The combination of independent baseline predictors had a 41% positive and 92% negative predictive value to predict progression of an obstruction treated with a percutaneous coronary intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Large plaque burden and low local endothelial shear stress provide independent and additive prediction to identify plaques that develop progressive enlargement and lumen narrowing. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http:www.//clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT01316159.

Evaluation of artery visualizations for heart disease diagnosis.

Heart disease is the number one killer in the United States, and finding indicators of the disease at an early stage is critical for treatment and prevention. In this paper we evaluate visualization techniques that enable the diagnosis of coronary artery disease. A key physical quantity of medical interest is endothelial shear stress (ESS). Low ESS has been associated with sites of lesion formation and rapid progression of disease in the coronary arteries. Having effective visualizations of a patient's ESS data is vital for the quick and thorough non-invasive evaluation by a cardiologist. We present a task taxonomy for hemodynamics based on a formative user study with domain experts. Based on the results of this study we developed HemoVis, an interactive visualization application for heart disease diagnosis that uses a novel 2D tree diagram representation of coronary artery trees. We present the results of a formal quantitative user study with domain experts that evaluates the effect of 2D versus 3D artery representations and of color maps on identifying regions of low ESS. We show statistically significant results demonstrating that our 2D visualizations are more accurate and efficient than 3D representations, and that a perceptually appropriate color map leads to fewer diagnostic mistakes than a rainbow color map.