Prognostic model for total mortality in patients with haemodialysis from the Assessments of Survival and Cardiovascular Events (AURORA) study.

OBJECTIVES: Risk factors of mortality in patients with haemodialysis (HD) have been identified in several studies, but few prognostic models have been developed with assessments of calibration and discrimination abilities. We used the database of the Assessment of Survival and Cardiovascular Events study to develop a prognostic model of mortality over 3-4 years. METHODS: Five factors (age, albumin, C-reactive protein, history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes) were selected from experience and forced into the regression equation. In a 67% random try-out sample of patients, no further factors amongst 24 candidates added significance (P < 0.01) to mortality outcome as assessed by Cox regression modelling, and individual probabilities of death were estimated in the try-out and test samples. Calibration was explored by calculating the prognostic index with regression coefficients from the try-out sample to patients in the 33% test sample. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) areas. RESULTS: The strongest prognostic factor in the try-out sample was age, with small differences between the other four factors. Calibration in the test sample was good when the calculated number of deaths was multiplied by a constant of 1.33. The five-factor model discriminated reasonably well between deceased and surviving patients in both the try-out and test samples with an ROC area of about 0.73. CONCLUSIONS: A model consisting of five factors can be used to estimate and stratify the probability of death for individuals The model is most useful for long-term prognosis in an HD population with survival prospects of more than 1 year.

Tolerance induction ameliorates allograft vasculopathy in rat aortic transplants. Influence of Fas-mediated apoptosis.

Based on successful induction of donor-specific unresponsiveness by alloantigenic stimulation in several animal models of acute rejection, we hypothesized that similar immune manipulations would also inhibit the evolution of chronic rejection and transplant vasculopathy. To induce immune tolerance, DA rats received a PVG heart allograft and were immunosuppressed with cyclosporine for 30 d. At day 100 the animals were challenged with a PVG aortic allograft after either 1 or 18 h of cold ischemia. 8 wk after the aortic transplantation, the grafts were investigated for morphological changes, infiltrating cells, apoptosis, and Fas-Fas ligand expression. Control allografts showed advanced transplant arteriosclerosis, whereas tolerance-induced aortic allografts displayed reduced neointimal formation, less medial atrophy, fewer apoptotic cells, and fewer Fas- and FasL-expressing cells. Prolonged ischemic storage time did not profoundly alter the morphological changes of the allografts. Fas expression was found in T cells, macrophages, vascular smooth muscle cells, and endothelial cells, whereas FasL was expressed mainly by T cells and macrophages. FasL mRNA expression was evident throughout the entire allograft wall. In conclusion, induction of allospecific tolerance can effectively prevent transplant arteriosclerosis. Cold ischemia damage does not abrogate the beneficial effect of tolerance, but creates a separate identity of mainly endothelial lesions. Furthermore, Fas-mediated apoptosis appears to be involved in the pathological lesions seen in chronic rejection.

Ischemia causes rapidly progressive nephropathy in the diabetic rat.

We examined the influence of renal ischemia in rats with diabetes mellitus (DM). Male Wistar rats were rendered diabetic by streptozotocin treatment. Two weeks later, 30 minutes of complete ischemia was induced in the left kidney of DM and non-DM animals. Both groups were evaluated functionally and morphologically four or eight weeks post-ischemia. In non-DM animals renal function and morphology showed almost complete recovery. In the DM animals, however, this comparatively short period of ischemia caused a substantial loss of renal function. Four weeks post-ischemia inulin clearance in the DM kidneys rendered ischemic was only 20% of that in the corresponding non-DM kidneys, and after eight weeks the DM kidneys were completely anuric. Extensive inflammation and tubulointerstitial fibrosis were evident in DM kidneys four weeks after ischemia and seemed to increase over time. After eight weeks, tubular atrophy was found in the ischemic DM kidneys, resulting in a substantial loss of kidney mass. We conclude that in diabetic rats renal ischemia causes rapidly progressive kidney damage that in several respects resembles diabetic nephropathy in humans. Since advanced renal lesions similar to those seen in human diabetic nephropathy never develop in the rat solely as a result of DM, the present study may provide an experimental model for further studies on renal failure in diabetes mellitus.

Inducible and endothelial nitric oxide synthase expression during development of transplant arteriosclerosis in rat aortic grafts.

In the vascular system, distinct isoforms of nitric oxide synthase (NOS) generate nitric oxide (NO), which acts as a biological messenger. Its role in the development of transplant arteriosclerosis (TA) is still unclear. To investigate whether NO is involved in TA, we studied the expression of NOS isoforms, inducible NOS (iNOS) and endothelial NOS (eNOS), by immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization during the first two post-transplantation months and their relation with cold ischemia (1 to 24 hours) and reperfusion injury using an aortic transplantation model in the rat. We found an increased iNOS expression in the intima and adventitia and a decreased expression in the media, whereas eNOS expression was not significantly altered during the development of TA. Co-localization studies suggested that iNOS-positive cells were vascular smooth muscle cells, monocyte-derived macrophages, and endothelial cells. Prolonged ischemic storage time resulted in an increase in eNOS expression in the neointima. In situ hybridization showed iNOS mRNA expression by vascular cells in the neointima and media. NO produced by iNOS and eNOS may be involved, at least in part, in the pathogenesis of TA in aortic grafts. Additional studies are needed to confirm the modulatory mechanism of NO during the development of TA.

Smooth muscle cell migration into intima and adventitia during development of transplant vasculopathy.

Smooth muscle cell (SMC) migration from the medial layer into the intima is a characteristic feature of transplant vasculopathy and is thought to be regulated by locally produced cytokines. We studied the expression of smooth muscle alpha-actin, PDGF B-ligand and, PDGF alpha- and beta-receptors in rat aortic allografts with transplant vasculopathy using immunohistochemistry. At two weeks, an intense expression of PDGF B-ligand and, PDGF alpha- and beta-receptors was found in the neointima and adventitia. Medial SMC expression decreased with time in parallel with accumulation of smooth muscle alpha-actin in the neointima and adventitia. PDGF expression persisted in the adventitia. Prolonged ischemic storage time resulted in an increase in the number of alpha-actin-positive SMCs in the intima of syngeneic grafts. These data indicate that SMCs migrate into both the intima and adventitia. This migration may be induced, at least in part, by PDGF produced by graft invading monocyte-derived macrophages.

Expression of CD11b and ICAM-1 in an in vivo model of transplant arteriosclerosis.

Adhesion molecules play a crucial role in transplant rejection in regulating the interaction of inflammatory cells with cells in the vascular wall. In an aortic transplantation model, we have previously analysed the early adhesion process (7.5 min to 24 h) and the impact of cold ischaemia time (1-24 h) upon transplant arteriosclerosis during the first 2 months after transplantation in the rat. The aim of this investigation was to study adhesion molecules in accelerated transplant arteriosclerosis in a rat model by analysing the immunohistochemical expression of CD11b and ICAM-1 up to 2 months and followed by a semiquantitative evaluation and multivariant analysis. Antigen expression of CD11b and ICAM-1 adhesion molecules was stronger in the aortic allografts than in the ischaemia-induced syngeneic aortic grafts in the whole vessel wall. Neither ICAM-1 nor CD11b antigen expression correlated significantly with time periods of ischaemia/reperfusion injury in allogeneic or syngeneic aortic transplants. CD11b and ICAM-1 are induced by allogeneic stimuli in transplanted aortas suggesting a role in the pathogenesis of transplant arteriosclerosis. Our findings have implications for understanding the role of cell adhesion activation in the vascular wall subject to chronic graft rejection.

Inhibition of transplant arteriosclerosis in rat aortic grafts by low molecular weight heparin derivatives.

The effects of low molecular weight heparin derivatives with a low anticoagulant activity on transplant arteriosclerosis (TA) in a rat aortic transplant model were investigated. TA was induced by ischemia in the syngeneic transplants and primarily by immunological mechanisms in the allogeneic transplants. Treatment with the heparin derivatives, OAM 71262 or LA-heparin, was administered in a dosage of 250 micrograms/kg/hr by mini-osmotic pumps during 8 weeks. No immunosuppressive regimen was given to the recipient rats in either model. All rats were killed 8 weeks after aortic grafting. The grafts were examined for intimal and medial changes using an image analysis system. Heparin derivatives had a beneficial effect on both the intimal thickening and the medial injury in the syngeneic transplants, but not in the allogeneic grafts. In the syngeneic LA-heparin treated grafts, the thickness of the intima was less than that in the syngeneic control grafts (P < 0.05). In the syngeneic transplants, a significant increase was observed in the media after treatment with OAM 71262 (P < 0.01) as well as those with LA-heparin (P < 0.001). In the syngeneic grafts treated with both heparin derivatives, a significant reduction in the antigen expression of alpha-actin-containing smooth muscle cells in the intima, transforming growth factor-beta 1 both in the media and adventitia, and platelet-derived growth factor-beta receptors in the adventitia was observed immunohistochemically. In summary, low molecular weight heparin derivatives with low anticoagulant activity partially inhibited ischemia-induced syngeneic TA, whereas no such effect could be demonstrated in nonimmunosuppressed recipients with allogeneic grafts.

Effects of angiopeptin on transplant arteriosclerosis in the rat.

The influence of the somatostatin analogue angiopeptin on transplant arteriosclerosis was investigated using two aortic transplantation rat models. One was characterized by ischemia/reperfusion-induced changes in syngeneic transplants while immunologically induced changes dominated in the other allogeneic model. Angiopeptin, 100 micrograms/kg per day, was administered continuously until the sacrifice of the rats after 8 weeks. No additional immunosuppression was used in either model. An image analysis system was used to quantify the intimal and medial thicknesses of the grafts. In the syngeneic grafts, the intimal thickness was less than 50% of that of control grafts (P < 0.05), but no difference was seen in the allogeneic model. The expression of selected cells, TGF-beta s, and PDGF and PDGF alpha-receptors was detected immunohistochemically and displayed a similar picture in control and angiopeptin-treated grafts in both models. We conclude that angiopeptin has no clear immunosuppressive properties but may counteract ischemia-induced transplant arteriosclerosis.

Presence of polymorphonuclear granulocytes during the early stage of transplant arteriosclerosis after prolonged ischemia in the rat.

The presence and function of polymorphonuclear granulocytes has been investigated, in particular, in the microcirculation in many short-term models of ischaemia/reperfusion injury. The aim of this study was to examine the presence of granulocytes in the aorta in a recently established long-term model of transplant arteriosclerosis, based on prolonged cold graft ischaemia time in the rat. Aortic grafts of PVG donors were subjected to two different cold ischaemia times of 1 and 4 h (n = 5 in each group) before an orthotopic transplantation to syngeneic recipients. The grafts were explanted shortly after various times post-reperfusion (7.5 min 24 h) and examined with conventional staining, immunohistochemistry and transmission electron microscopy for the presence of granulocytes. The results showed the presence of these cells adherent to the endothelial layer or in the subendothelial layer in grafts with both ischaemia times and with a maximum seen 2 h after transplantation. The internal elastic lamina was interrupted at sites of granulocyte adherence. We concluded that the polymorphonuclear granulocyte may be involved in the ischaemia/reperfusion injury in this model, thus, contributing to the development of accelerated transplant arteriosclerosis.

Pathogenesis and treatment perspectives of chronic graft rejection (CVR).

Chronic rejection is a major threat towards the long-term function and survival of transplanted hearts and kidneys. It is characterized by a proliferative remodelling of the graft vessels along with structural changes of the parenchyma and gradual deterioration of graft function. The pathogenesis is complex and multifactorial. Since grafts with chronic rejection are also subjected to a more or less intense invasion of immunoreactive cells, an important primary objective is to optimize the immunosuppressive treatment. There is no established means of prevention or treatment of chronic rejection. Pharmacological agents interfering with prostaglandin metabolism have been tried most frequently and preliminary results are also available from the use of polyunsaturated fatty acids of the omega-3 series and of heparin derivatives. Based on experimental studies the somatostatin analogue angiopeptin seems very promising today. There will certainly be an increased interest in the use of lipid-reducing agents in the future as well as antioxidant agents acting against the effects of reactive oxygen radicals and oxidative modification of LDL fractions. A strong novel candidate is carvedilol, exerting both antihypertensive, antioxidant and antiproliferative properties.