Patient and Operative Risk Factors for Osteoarthritis After Primary Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Cohort Study of 41,976 Patients.

BACKGROUND: The reported incidence of posttraumatic knee osteoarthritis (PTOA) after primary anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) varies considerably. Further, there are gaps in identifying which patients are at risk for PTOA after ACLR and whether there are modifiable factors. PURPOSE: To (1) determine the incidence of PTOA in a primary ACLR cohort and (2) identify patient and perioperative factors associated with the development of PTOA after primary ACLR. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: Data from the Kaiser Permanente ACLR Registry were used to conduct a cohort study. Patients who had undergone primary ACLR without a previous diagnosis of osteoarthritis were identified (2009-2020). The crude incidence of PTOA was calculated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator with a multistate model. The association of patient and operative factors with the development of PTOA after primary ACLR was modeled as a time to event using multistate Cox proportional hazards regression. Models stratified by age (<22 and ≥22 years) were also conducted because of the effect modification of age. RESULTS: The study sample included 41,976 cases of primary ACLR. The incidence of PTOA was 1.7%, 5.1%, and 13.6% at 2, 5, and 10 year follow-ups, respectively. Risk factors for PTOA that were consistently identified in the overall cohort and age-stratified groups included a body mass index ≥30 versus <30 and an allograft or quadriceps tendon autograft versus a hamstring tendon autograft. Patients presenting with knee pain after ACLR were further identified when considering postoperative factors. Other risk factors for PTOA in the overall cohort included age ≥22 versus <22 years, bone-patellar tendon-bone autograft versus hamstring tendon autograft, hypertension, cartilage injury, meniscal injury, revision after primary ACLR with concomitant meniscal/cartilage surgery, multiligament injury, other activity at the time of injury compared with sport, and tibial tunnel drilling technique rather than the anteromedial portal. CONCLUSION: Knee pain after ACLR may be an early sign of PTOA. Surgeons should consider the adverse associations of a higher body mass index and an allograft or quadriceps tendon autograft with the development of PTOA, as these were factors identified with a higher risk, regardless of a patient's age at the time of primary ACLR.

The role of obesity and adipose tissue dysfunction in osteoarthritis pain.

Obesity has a pivotal and multifaceted role in pain associated with osteoarthritis (OA), extending beyond the mechanistic influence of BMI. It exerts its effects both directly and indirectly through various modifiable risk factors associated with OA-related pain. Adipose tissue dysfunction is highly involved in OA-related pain through local and systemic inflammation, immune dysfunction, and the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines and adipokines. Adipose tissue dysfunction is intricately connected with metabolic syndrome, which independently exerts specific effects on OA-related pain, distinct from its association with BMI. The interplay among obesity, adipose tissue dysfunction and metabolic syndrome influences OA-related pain through diverse pain mechanisms, including nociceptive pain, peripheral sensitization and central sensitization. These complex interactions contribute to the heightened pain experience observed in individuals with OA and obesity. In addition, pain management strategies are less efficient in individuals with obesity. Importantly, therapeutic interventions targeting obesity and metabolic syndrome hold promise in managing OA-related pain. A deeper understanding of the intricate relationship between obesity, metabolic syndrome and OA-related pain is crucial and could have important implications for improving pain management and developing innovative therapeutic options in OA.

Advances in viscosupplementation and tribosupplementation for early-stage osteoarthritis therapy.

Joint kinematic instability, arising from congenital or acquired musculoskeletal pathoanatomy or from imbalances in anabolism and catabolism induced by pathophysiological factors, leads to deterioration of the composition, structure and function of cartilage and, ultimately, progression to osteoarthritis (OA). Alongside articular cartilage degeneration, synovial fluid lubricity decreases in OA owing to a reduction in the concentration and molecular weight of hyaluronic acid and surface-active mucinous glycoproteins that form a lubricating film over the articulating joint surfaces. Minimizing friction between articulating joint surfaces by lubrication is fundamental for decreasing hyaline cartilage wear and for maintaining the function of synovial joints. Augmentation with highly viscous supplements (that is, viscosupplementation) offers one approach to re-establishing the rheological and tribological properties of synovial fluid in OA. However, this approach has varied clinical outcomes owing to limited intra-articular residence time and ineffective mechanisms of chondroprotection. This Review discusses normal hyaline cartilage function and lubrication and examines the advantages and disadvantages of various strategies for restoring normal joint lubrication. These strategies include contemporary viscosupplements that contain antioxidants, anti-inflammatory drugs or platelet-rich plasma and new synthetic synovial fluid additives and cartilage matrix enhancers. Advanced biomimetic tribosupplements offer promise for mitigating cartilage wear, restoring joint function and, ultimately, improving patient care.

2023 EULAR classification criteria for hand osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to develop classification criteria for overall hand osteoarthritis (OA), interphalangeal OA and thumb base OA based on self-reported data and radiographic features. METHODS: The classification criteria sets were developed in three phases. In phase 1, we identified criteria that discriminated hand OA from controls. In phase 2, we used a consensus-based decision analysis approach to derive a clinician-based evaluation of the relative importance of the criteria. In phase 3, we refined the scoring system, determined the cut-offs for disease classification and compared the sensitivity and specificity of the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) criteria with the 1990 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria. RESULTS: In persons with hand symptoms and no other disease (including psoriasis) or acute injury that can explain the hand symptoms (mandatory criteria), hand OA can be classified based on age, duration of morning stiffness, number of joints with osteophytes and joint space narrowing, and concordance between symptoms and radiographic findings. Using a sum of scores based on each diagnostic element, overall hand OA can be classified if a person achieves 9 or more points on a 0-15 scale. The cut-off for interphalangeal OA and thumb base OA is 8 points. While the EULAR criteria demonstrated better sensitivity than the ACR criteria in the phase 1 data set, the performance of the two criteria sets was similar in two external cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: International experts developed the EULAR criteria to classify overall hand OA, interphalangeal OA and thumb base OA in clinical studies using a rigorous methodology.

Evidence-Based Review of Nonsurgical Treatments for Knee and Hip Osteoarthritis.

Knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA) are highly prevalent joint diseases that lead to chronic pain, disability, and increased mortality. In this review, we provide a summary of nonsurgical treatments available for knee and hip OA that have evidence to support their use. We also provide a summary of the treatments available for knee and hip OA that do not have sufficient evidence to support their use. Treatments covered in this review include pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic modalities. Cite this article as: Misra D, Felson DT. Evidence-based review of nonsurgical treatments for knee and hip osteoarthritis. Eur J Rheumatol. Published online March 25, 2024. doi: 10.5152/ eurjrheum.2024.22096.

Cohort profile: Worldwide Collaboration on OsteoArthritis prediCtion for the Hip (World COACH) - an international consortium of prospective cohort studies with individual participant data on hip osteoarthritis.

PURPOSE: Hip osteoarthritis (OA) is a major cause of pain and disability worldwide. Lack of effective therapies may reflect poor knowledge on its aetiology and risk factors, and result in the management of end-stage hip OA with costly joint replacement. The Worldwide Collaboration on OsteoArthritis prediCtion for the Hip (World COACH) consortium was established to pool and harmonise individual participant data from prospective cohort studies. The consortium aims to better understand determinants and risk factors for the development and progression of hip OA, to optimise and automate methods for (imaging) analysis, and to develop a personalised prediction model for hip OA. PARTICIPANTS: World COACH aimed to include participants of prospective cohort studies with ≥200 participants, that have hip imaging data available from at least 2 time points at least 4 years apart. All individual participant data, including clinical data, imaging (data), biochemical markers, questionnaires and genetic data, were collected and pooled into a single, individual-level database. FINDINGS TO DATE: World COACH currently consists of 9 cohorts, with 38 021 participants aged 18-80 years at baseline. Overall, 71% of the participants were women and mean baseline age was 65.3±8.6 years. Over 34 000 participants had baseline pelvic radiographs available, and over 22 000 had an additional pelvic radiograph after 8-12 years of follow-up. Even longer radiographic follow-up (15-25 years) is available for over 6000 of these participants. FUTURE PLANS: The World COACH consortium offers unique opportunities for studies on the relationship between determinants/risk factors and the development or progression of hip OA, by using harmonised data on clinical findings, imaging, biomarkers, genetics and lifestyle. This provides a unique opportunity to develop a personalised hip OA risk prediction model and to optimise methods for imaging analysis of the hip.

Toward designing human intervention studies to prevent osteoarthritis after knee injury: A report from an interdisciplinary OARSI 2023 workshop.

Objective: The global impact of osteoarthritis is growing. Currently no disease modifying osteoarthritis drugs/therapies exist, increasing the need for preventative strategies. Knee injuries have a high prevalence, distinct onset, and strong independent association with post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA). Numerous groups are embarking upon research that will culminate in clinical trials to assess the effect of interventions to prevent knee PTOA despite challenges and lack of consensus about trial design in this population. Our objectives were to improve awareness of knee PTOA prevention trial design and discuss state-of-the art methods to address the unique opportunities and challenges of these studies. Design: An international interdisciplinary group developed a workshop, hosted at the 2023 Osteoarthritis Research Society International Congress. Here we summarize the workshop content and outputs, with the goal of moving the field of PTOA prevention trial design forward. Results: Workshop highlights included discussions about target population (considering risk, homogeneity, and possibility of modifying osteoarthritis outcome); target treatment (considering delivery, timing, feasibility and effectiveness); comparators (usual care, placebo), and primary symptomatic outcomes considering surrogates and the importance of knee function and symptoms other than pain to this population. Conclusions: Opportunities to test multimodal PTOA prevention interventions across preclinical models and clinical trials exist. As improving symptomatic outcomes aligns with patient and regulator priorities, co-primary symptomatic (single or aggregate/multidimensional outcome considering function and symptoms beyond pain) and structural/physiological outcomes may be appropriate for these trials. To ensure PTOA prevention trials are relevant and acceptable to all stakeholders, future research should address critical knowledge gaps and challenges.

Gait Alterations and Association With Worsening Knee Pain and Physical Function: A Machine Learning Approach With Wearable Sensors in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify gait alterations related to worsening knee pain and worsening physical function, using machine learning approaches applied to wearable sensor-derived data from a large observational cohort. METHODS: Participants in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) completed a 20-m walk test wearing inertial sensors on their lower back and ankles. Parameters describing spatiotemporal features of gait were extracted from these data. We used an ensemble machine learning technique ("super learning") to optimally discriminate between those with and without worsening physical function and, separately, those with and without worsening pain over two years. We then used log-binomial regression to evaluate associations of the top 10 influential variables selected with super learning with each outcome. We also assessed whether the relation of altered gait with worsening function was mediated by changes in pain. RESULTS: Of 2,324 participants, 29% and 24% had worsening knee pain and function over two years, respectively. From the super learner, several gait parameters were found to be influential for worsening pain and for worsening function. After adjusting for confounders, greater gait asymmetry, longer average step length, and lower dominant frequency were associated with worsening pain, and lower cadence was associated with worsening function. Worsening pain partially mediated the association of cadence with function. CONCLUSION: We identified gait alterations associated with worsening knee pain and those associated with worsening physical function. These alterations could be assessed with wearable sensors in clinical settings. Further research should determine whether they might be therapeutic targets to prevent worsening pain and worsening function.

Intra-Articular Mineralization on Computerized Tomography of the Knee and Risk of Cartilage Damage: The Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Intra-articular (IA) mineralization may contribute to osteoarthritis (OA) structural progression. We studied the association of IA mineralization on knee computed tomography (CT) with cartilage damage worsening on knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), with a focus on location- and tissue-specific effects. METHODS: Participants from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study with knee CT and MRI scans were included. Presence of IA mineralization on CT was defined as a Boston University Calcium Knee Score >0 anywhere in the knee. Cartilage worsening on MRI was defined as any increase in the MRI OA Knee Score, including incident damage. We evaluated the association of whole-knee, compartment-specific (ie, medial or lateral), and subregion-specific (ie, location-matched) IA mineralization at baseline with cartilage worsening at two years' follow-up in the corresponding locations using binomial regression with generalized estimating equations, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: We included 1,673 participants (mean age 60 years, 56% female, mean BMI 29). Nine percent had any IA mineralization in the knee, and 47.4% had any cartilage worsening on follow-up. Mineralization of any tissue in the knee, regardless of location, was not associated with MRI cartilage worsening. However, cartilage mineralization was associated with 1.39 (95% confidence interval 1.04-1.88) times higher risk of cartilage worsening in the same compartment, with similar results in subregion-specific analysis. CONCLUSION: CT-detected IA mineralization in the cartilage was associated with higher risk of MRI cartilage worsening in the same compartment and subregion over two years. These findings suggest potential localized, tissue-specific effects of IA mineralization on cartilage pathology in knee OA.

Survival analysis on subchondral bone length for total knee replacement.

OBJECTIVE: Use subchondral bone length (SBL), a new MRI-derived measure that reflects the extent of cartilage loss and bone flattening, to predict the risk of progression to total knee replacement (TKR). METHODS: We employed baseline MRI data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), focusing on 760 men and 1214 women with bone marrow lesions (BMLs) and joint space narrowing (JSN) scores, to predict the progression to TKR. To minimize bias from analyzing both knees of a participant, only the knee with a higher Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade was considered, given its greater potential need for TKR. We utilized the Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models, incorporating raw and normalized values of SBL, JSN, and BML as predictors. The study included subgroup analyses for different demographics and clinical characteristics, using models for raw and normalized SBL (merged, femoral, tibial), BML (merged, femoral, tibial), and JSN (medial and lateral compartments). Model performance was evaluated using the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), Brier score, and Concordance index to gauge accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. Knee joint and region-level analyses were conducted to determine the effectiveness of SBL, JSN, and BML in predicting TKR risk. RESULTS: The SBL model, incorporating data from both the femur and tibia, demonstrated a predictive capacity for TKR that closely matched the performance of the BML score and the JSN grade. The Concordance index of the SBL model was 0.764, closely mirroring the BML's 0.759 and slightly below JSN's 0.788. The Brier score for the SBL model stood at 0.069, showing comparability with BML's 0.073 and a minor difference from JSN's 0.067. Regarding the AUC, the SBL model achieved 0.803, nearly identical to BML's 0.802 and slightly lower than JSN's 0.827. CONCLUSION: SBL's capacity to predict the risk of progression to TKR highlights its potential as an effective imaging biomarker for knee osteoarthritis.

Essential Fatty Acids and Osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammation worsens joint destruction in osteoarthritis (OA) and aggravates pain. Although n-3 fatty acids reduce inflammation, different n-3 fatty acids have different effects on inflammation and clinical outcomes, with eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) having the strongest effect. We examined whether specific essential fatty acid levels affected the development of OA. METHODS: We studied participants from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) at risk of developing knee OA. As part of MOST, participants were asked repeatedly about knee pain, and knee radiographs and magnetic resonance images (MRIs) were obtained. Using baseline fasting samples, we analyzed serum fatty acids with standard assays. After excluding participants with baseline OA, we defined two sets of cases based on their status through 60 months' follow-up: those developing incident radiographic OA and those developing incident symptomatic OA (knee pain and radiographic OA). Controls did not develop these outcomes. Additionally, we examined worsening of MRI cartilage damage and synovitis and worsening knee pain and evaluated the number of hand joints affected by nodules. In regression models, we tested the association of each OA outcome with levels of specific n-3 and n-6 fatty acids, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, education, physical activity, race, baseline pain, smoking, statin use, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: We studied 363 cases with incident symptomatic knee OA and 295 with incident radiographic knee OA. The mean age was 62 years (59% women). We found no associations of specific n-3 fatty acid levels, including EPA, or of n-6 fatty acid levels with incident OA (eg, for incident symptomatic knee OA, the odds ratio per SD increase in EPA was 1.0 [95% confidence interval 0.87-1.17]). Results for other OA outcomes also failed to suggest a protective effect of specific n-3 fatty acids with OA outcomes. CONCLUSION: We found no association of serum levels of EPA or of other specific n-3 fatty acids or n-6 fatty acids with risk of incident knee OA or other OA outcomes.

Assessing the association of epigenetic age acceleration with osteoarthritis in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST).

PURPOSE: Advancing age is one of the strongest risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA). DNA methylation-based measures of epigenetic age acceleration may provide insights into mechanisms underlying OA. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study in a subset of 671 participants ages 45-69 years with no or mild radiographic knee OA. DNA methylation was assessed with the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC 850K array. We calculated predicted epigenetic age according to Hannum, Horvath, PhenoAge, and GrimAge epigenetic clocks, then regressed epigenetic age on chronological age to obtain the residuals. Associations between the residuals and knee, hand, and multi-joint OA were assessed using logistic regression, adjusted for chronological age, sex, clinical site, smoking status, and race. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent met criteria for radiographic hand OA, 25% met criteria for radiographic knee OA, and 8% met criteria for multi-joint OA. Mean chronological age (SD) was 58.4 (6.7) years. Mean predicted epigenetic age (SD) according to Horvath, Hannum, PhenoAge, and GrimAge epigenetic clocks was 64.9 (6.4), 68.6 (5.9), 50.5 (7.7), and 67.0 (6.2), respectively. Horvath epigenetic age acceleration was not associated with an increased odds of hand OA, odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) = 1.03 (0.99-1.08), with similar findings for knee and multi-joint OA. We found similar magnitudes of associations for Hannum epigenetic age, PhenoAge, and GrimAge acceleration compared to Horvath epigenetic age acceleration. CONCLUSIONS: Epigenetic age acceleration as measured by various well-validated epigenetic clocks based on DNA methylation was not associated with increased risk of knee, hand, or multi-joint OA independent of chronological age.

New approach to testing treatments for osteoarthritis: FastOA.

Animal models of post traumatic osteoarthritis have shown many promising treatments for disease, but human trials have mostly failed to identify effective treatments. This viewpoint suggests that the frequent failure of drug and treatment development in osteoarthritis is due, in part, to the advanced stage of disease of patients in trials and suggests that mirroring the animal model approach might be more successful. It suggests a path forward by enriching trial enrollees with those likely to develop post traumatic OA quickly.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Candidate Magnetic Resonance Imaging Knee Osteoarthritis Definitions Versus Radiograph in an Acute Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: We tested the diagnostic accuracy of previously proposed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) osteoarthritis (OA) definitions in a cohort after acute anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. METHODS: We studied participants with posteroanterior and lateral knee radiographs and MRI 5 years after ACL injury, scored using the Anterior Cruciate Ligament Osteoarthritis Score. Radiographic OA (ROA) was defined using Osteoarthritis Research Society International scoring of osteophytes and joint space narrowing considering medial/lateral tibiofemoral and patellofemoral compartments. We tested three candidate MRI OA definitions that performed well in an older adult cohort. "Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) simple" required cartilage score ≥2 (range 0-6) and osteophyte score ≥2 (0-7); "MOST optional" included cartilage score ≥2, osteophyte score ≥2, and either bone marrow lesions (BMLs) ≥1 (0-3) or synovitis ≥2 (0-3). The third, a Delphi panel definition, included nonzero scores for cartilage, osteophyte, BMLs, meniscus, and other structures. We calculated sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for each MRI definition versus ROA. RESULTS: We included 113 participants (mean age 26 years, 26% female). At 5 years, 29 participants (26%) had ROA. "MOST simple" had a sensitivity of 52% (95% CI 33%-71%), and specificity of 76% (95% CI 66%-85%). Sensitivity and specificities for "MOST optional" were 28% (95% CI 29%-67%) and 83% (95% CI 74%-91%), respectively. The Delphi panel definition had a sensitivity of 48% (95% CI 29%-67%) and specificity of 77% (95% CI 67%-86%). CONCLUSION: Simple MRI-based OA definitions requiring at least cartilage damage and an osteophyte have low sensitivity and high specificity in young persons after knee injury.

Relation of Intra-Articular Mineralization to Knee Pain in Knee Osteoarthritis: A Longitudinal Analysis in the MOST Study.

OBJECTIVE: Intra-articular (IA) calcium crystal deposition is common in knee osteoarthritis (OA), but of unclear significance. It is possible that low-grade, crystal-related inflammation may contribute to knee pain. We examined the longitudinal relation of computed tomography (CT)-detected IA mineralization to the development of knee pain. METHODS: We used data from the National Institutes of Health-funded longitudinal Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study. Participants had knee radiographs and bilateral knee CTs at baseline, and pain assessments every 8 months for 2 years. CT images were scored using the Boston University Calcium Knee Score. We longitudinally examined the relation of CT-detected IA mineralization to the risk of frequent knee pain (FKP), intermittent or constant knee pain worsening, and pain severity worsening using generalized linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: We included 2,093 participants (mean age 61 years, 57% women, mean body mass index 28.8 kg/m2 ). Overall, 10.2% of knees had IA mineralization. The presence of any IA mineralization in the cartilage was associated with 2.0 times higher odds of having FKP (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-2.78) and 1.86 times more frequent intermittent or constant pain (95% CI 1.20-2.78), with similar results seen for the presence of any IA mineralization in the meniscus or joint capsule. A higher burden of IA mineralization anywhere within the knee was associated with a higher odds of all pain outcomes (odds ratio ranged from 2.14 to 2.21). CONCLUSION: CT-detected IA mineralization was associated with risk of having more frequent, persistent, and worsening knee pain over 2 years. Targeting IA mineralization may have therapeutic potential for pain improvement in knee OA.

Offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes born to parents with chronic inflammatory arthritis using antirheumatic therapies: A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Most women with rheumatic diseases discontinue antirheumatic therapies in anticipation of, or during pregnancy due to concerns around medication safety and fetal wellbeing. OBJECTIVE: We performed a scoping review of available evidence investigating the risks of adverse offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes amongst parents with chronic inflammatory arthritis, taking antirheumatic therapies during conception or pregnancy. METHODS: We designed a scoping review protocol and search strategy a priori in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We performed an exhaustive search in Cochrane Library, Embase, Google Scholar, Medline, and Web of Science for relevant literature in January 2023. Articles needed to include offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes born to parents with CIA who took antirheumatic therapies during conception or pregnancy. Independent reviewers extracted data from eligible articles using a standard abstraction tool and performed critical appraisal of study quality. RESULTS: Six studies were included for full data abstraction. Use of Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs, Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha inhibitors, and exposure to methotrexate during early first trimester of pregnancy did not seem to increase risk for adverse offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes. Corticosteroid use during pregnancy seemed to pose an increased risk for attention deficit hyperactive disorders in offspring. CONCLUSION: Use of some antirheumatic therapies during pregnancy may not be associated with adverse offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes. Further investigations are needed to elucidate if other confounding factors affect long term offspring health outcomes born to parents with chronic inflammatory arthritis.

Hip Abductor Weakness and Its Association With New or Worsened Knee Pain: Data From the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Hip abductors, important for controlling pelvic and femoral orientation during gait, may affect knee pain. Our objective was to evaluate the relation of hip abductor strength to worsened or new-onset frequent knee pain. Given previously noted associations of knee extensor strength with osteoarthritis in women, we performed sex-specific analyses. METHODS: We used data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis study. Hip abductor and knee extensor strength was measured. Knee pain was assessed using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) questionnaire and a question about frequent knee pain at baseline (144-month visit), and 8, 16, and 24 months thereafter. Knee pain outcomes were worsened knee pain (2-point increase in WOMAC pain) and incident frequent knee pain (answering yes to the frequent knee pain question among those without frequent knee pain at baseline). Leg-specific analyses tested hip abductor strength as a risk factor for worsened and new frequent knee pain, adjusting for potential covariates. Additionally, we stratified by knee extensor strength (high versus low). RESULTS: Among women, compared to the highest quartile of hip abductor strength, the lowest quartile had 1.7 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.1-2.6) times the odds of worsened knee pain; significant associations were limited to women with high knee extensor strength (odds ratio 2.0 [95% CI 1.1-3.5]). We found no relation of abductor strength to worsening knee pain in men or with incident frequent knee pain in men or women. CONCLUSION: Hip abductor weakness was associated with worsening knee pain in women with strong knee extensors, but not with incident frequent knee pain in men or women. Knee extensor strength may be necessary, but not sufficient, to prevent pain worsening.

Gait, physical activity and tibiofemoral cartilage damage: a longitudinal machine learning analysis in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: To (1) develop and evaluate a machine learning model incorporating gait and physical activity to predict medial tibiofemoral cartilage worsening over 2 years in individuals without advanced knee osteoarthritis and (2) identify influential predictors in the model and quantify their effect on cartilage worsening. DESIGN: An ensemble machine learning model was developed to predict worsened cartilage MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score at follow-up from gait, physical activity, clinical and demographic data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study. Model performance was evaluated in repeated cross-validations. The top 10 predictors of the outcome across 100 held-out test sets were identified by a variable importance measure. Their effect on the outcome was quantified by g-computation. RESULTS: Of 947 legs in the analysis, 14% experienced medial cartilage worsening at follow-up. The median (2.5-97.5th percentile) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve across the 100 held-out test sets was 0.73 (0.65-0.79). Baseline cartilage damage, higher Kellgren-Lawrence grade, greater pain during walking, higher lateral ground reaction force impulse, greater time spent lying and lower vertical ground reaction force unloading rate were associated with greater risk of cartilage worsening. Similar results were found for the subset of knees with baseline cartilage damage. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning approach incorporating gait, physical activity and clinical/demographic features showed good performance for predicting cartilage worsening over 2 years. While identifying potential intervention targets from the model is challenging, lateral ground reaction force impulse, time spent lying and vertical ground reaction force unloading rate should be investigated further as potential early intervention targets to reduce medial tibiofemoral cartilage worsening.

Increased risk of osteoarthritis in patients with atopic disease.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of osteoarthrits (OA) in patients with atopic disease compared with matched non-exposed patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with propensity score matching using claims data from Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart (CDM) (January 2003 to June 2019) and electronic health record data from the Stanford Research Repository (STARR) (January 2010 to December 2020). We included adult patients without pre-existing OA or inflammatory arthritis who were exposed to atopic disease or who were non-exposed. The primary outcome was the development of incident OA. RESULTS: In Optum CDM, we identified 117 346 exposed patients with asthma or atopic dermatitis (mean age 52 years; 60% female) and 1 247 196 non-exposed patients (mean age 50 years; 48% female). After propensity score matching (n=1 09 899 per group), OA incidence was higher in patients with asthma or atopic dermatitis (26.9 per 1000 person-years) compared with non-exposed patients (19.1 per 1000 person-years), with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 1.58 (95% CI 1.55 to 1.62) for developing OA. This effect was even more pronounced in patients with both asthma and atopic dermatitis compared with non-exposed patients (aOR=2.15; 95% CI 1.93 to 2.39) and in patients with asthma compared with patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aOR=1.83; 95% CI 1.73 to 1.95). We replicated our results in an independent dataset (STARR), which provided the added richness of body mass index data. The aOR of developing OA in patients with asthma or atopic dermatitis versus non-exposed patients in STARR was 1.42 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.48). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates an increased incidence of OA in patients with atopic disease. Future interventional studies may consider targeting allergic pathways for the prevention or treatment of OA.