Development of forensic assay signatures for ebolaviruses.

Ebolaviruses are a diverse group of RNA viruses comprising five different species, four of which cause fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans. Because of their high infectivity and lethality, ebolaviruses are considered major biothreat agents. Although detection assays exist, no forensic assays are currently available. Here, we report the development of forensic assays that differentiate ebolaviruses. We performed phylogenetic analyses and identified canonical SNPs for all species, major clades and isolates. TaqMan-MGB allelic discrimination assays based on these SNPs were designed, screened against synthetic RNA templates, and validated against ebolavirus genomic RNAs. A total of 45 assays were validated to provide 100% coverage of the species and variants with additional resolution at the isolate level. These assays enabled accurate forensic analysis on 4 "unknown" ebolaviruses. Unknowns were correctly classified to species and variant. A goal of providing resolution below the isolate level was not successful. These high-resolution forensic assays allow rapid and accurate genotyping of ebolaviruses for forensic investigations.

Coupling of protein and environment fluctuations.

We review the concepts of protein dynamics developed over the last 35years and extend applications of the unified model of protein dynamics to heat flow and spatial fluctuations in hydrated myoglobin (Mb) powders. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and incoherent neutron scattering (INS) data on hydration Mb powders are explained by the temperature-dependence of the hydration-shell ß(h) process measured by dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (DRS). The unified model explains the temperature dependence of DSC and INS data as a kinetic effect due to a fixed experimental time window and a broad distribution of hydration-shell ß(h) fluctuation rates. We review the slaving of large scale protein motions to the bulk solvent α process, and the metastability of Mb molecules in glass forming bulk solvent at low temperatures. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: "Protein Dynamics: Experimental and Computational Approaches".

Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data.

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, thrives in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. A retrospective analysis of the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima located on the Mexican central Pacific coast is carried out. We estimate the reproduction number from spatial epidemic data at the level of municipalities using two different methods: (1) Using a standard dengue epidemic model and assuming pure exponential initial epidemic growth and (2) Fitting a more realistic epidemic model to the initial phase of the dengue epidemic curve. Using Method I, we estimate an overall mean reproduction number of 3.09 (95% CI: 2.34,3.84) as well as local reproduction numbers whose values range from 1.24 (1.15,1.33) to 4.22 (2.90,5.54). Using Method II, the overall mean reproduction number is estimated to be 2.0 (1.75,2.23) and local reproduction numbers ranging from 0.49 (0.0,1.0) to 3.30 (1.63,4.97). Method I systematically overestimates the reproduction number relative to the refined Method II, and hence it would overestimate the intensity of interventions required for containment. Moreover, optimal intervention with defined resources demands different levels of locally tailored mitigation. Local epidemic peaks occur between the 24th and 35th week of the year, and correlate positively with the final local epidemic sizes (rho=0.92, P-value<0.001). Moreover, final local epidemic sizes are found to be linearly related to the local population size (P-value<0.001). This observation supports a roughly constant number of female mosquitoes per person across urban and rural regions.

Protein folding is slaved to solvent motions.

Proteins, the workhorses of living systems, are constructed from chains of amino acids, which are synthesized in the cell based on the instructions of the genetic code and then folded into working proteins. The time for folding varies from microseconds to hours. What controls the folding rate is hotly debated. We postulate here that folding has the same temperature dependence as the alpha-fluctuations in the bulk solvent but is much slower. We call this behavior slaving. Slaving has been observed in folded proteins: Large-scale protein motions follow the solvent fluctuations with rate coefficient k(alpha) but can be slower by a large factor. Slowing occurs because large-scale motions proceed in many small steps, each determined by k(alpha). If conformational motions of folded proteins are slaved, so a fortiori must be the motions during folding. The unfolded protein makes a Brownian walk in the conformational space to the folded structure, with each step controlled by k(alpha). Because the number of conformational substates in the unfolded protein is extremely large, the folding rate coefficient, k(f), is much smaller than k(alpha). The slaving model implies that the activation enthalpy of folding is dominated by the solvent, whereas the number of steps n(f) = k(alpha)/k(f) is controlled by the number of accessible substates in the unfolded protein and the solvent. Proteins, however, undergo not only alpha- but also beta-fluctuations. These additional fluctuations are local protein motions that are essentially independent of the bulk solvent fluctuations and may be relevant at late stages of folding.

Conformational dependence of a protein kinase phosphate transfer reaction.

Atomic motions and energetics for a phosphate transfer reaction catalyzed by the cAMP-dependent protein kinase are calculated by plane-wave density functional theory, starting from structures of proteins crystallized in both the reactant conformation (RC) and the transition-state conformation (TC). In TC, we calculate that the reactants and products are nearly isoenergetic with a 20-kJ/mol barrier, whereas phosphate transfer is unfavorable by 120 kJ/mol in the RC, with an even higher barrier. With the protein in TC, the motions involved in reaction are small, with only P(gamma) and the catalytic proton moving >0.5 A. Examination of the structures reveals that in the RC the active site cleft is not completely closed and there is insufficient space for the phosphorylated serine residue in the product state. Together, these observations imply that the phosphate transfer reaction occurs rapidly and reversibly in a particular conformation of the protein, and that the reaction can be gated by changes of a few tenths of an angstrom in the catalytic site.

Bulk-solvent and hydration-shell fluctuations, similar to alpha- and beta-fluctuations in glasses, control protein motions and functions.

The concept that proteins exist in numerous different conformations or conformational substates, described by an energy landscape, is now accepted, but the dynamics is incompletely explored. We have previously shown that large-scale protein motions, such as the exit of a ligand from the protein interior, follow the dielectric fluctuations in the bulk solvent. Here, we demonstrate, by using mean-square displacements (msd) from Mossbauer and neutron-scattering experiments, that fluctuations in the hydration shell control fast fluctuations in the protein. We call the first type solvent-slaved or alpha-fluctuations and the second type hydration-shell-coupled or beta-fluctuations. Solvent-slaved motions are similar to the alpha-fluctuations in glasses. Their temperature dependence can be approximated by a Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher relation and they are absent in a solid environment. Hydration-shell-coupled fluctuations are similar to the beta-relaxation in glasses. They can be approximated by a Ferry or an Arrhenius relation, are much reduced or absent in dehydrated proteins, and occur in hydrated proteins even if embedded in a solid. They can be responsible for internal processes such as the migration of ligands within myoglobin. The existence of two functionally important fluctuations in proteins, one slaved to bulk motions and the other coupled to hydration-shell fluctuations, implies that the environment can control protein functions through different avenues and that no real protein transition occurs at approximately 200 K. The large number of conformational substates is essential; proteins cannot function without this reservoir of entropy, which resides mainly in the hydration shell.

The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda.

Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions R0. Our estimate of R0 is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a 2-week delay in their implementation.

SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism.

In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people ("SEIJR") to extract average properties and rate constants for those populations. The model is fitted to data from the Ontario (Toronto) in Canada, Hong Kong in China and Singapore outbreaks and predictions are made based on various assumptions and observations, including the current effect of isolating individuals diagnosed with SARS. The epidemic dynamics for Hong Kong and Singapore appear to be different from the dynamics in Toronto, Ontario. Toronto shows a very rapid increase in the number of cases between March 31st and April 6th, followed by a significant slowing in the number of new cases. We explain this as the result of an increase in the diagnostic rate and in the effectiveness of patient isolation after March 26th. Our best estimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto, although the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model. It is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission, SARS' average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that computed for some strains of influenza (J. Math. Biol. 27 (1989) 233). Although it would not be surprising to see levels of SARS infection higher than 10% in some regions of the world (if unchecked), lack of data and the observed heterogeneity and sensitivity of parameters prevent us from predicting the long-term impact of SARS. The possibility that 10 or more percent of the world population at risk could eventually be infected with the virus in conjunction with a mortality rate of 3-7% or more, and indications of significant improvement in Toronto support the stringent measures that have been taken to isolate diagnosed cases.

Slaving: solvent fluctuations dominate protein dynamics and functions.

Protein motions are essential for function. Comparing protein processes with the dielectric fluctuations of the surrounding solvent shows that they fall into two classes: nonslaved and slaved. Nonslaved processes are independent of the solvent motions; their rates are determined by the protein conformation and vibrational dynamics. Slaved processes are tightly coupled to the solvent; their rates have approximately the same temperature dependence as the rate of the solvent fluctuations, but they are smaller. Because the temperature dependence is determined by the activation enthalpy, we propose that the solvent is responsible for the activation enthalpy, whereas the protein and the hydration shell control the activation entropy through the energy landscape. Bond formation is the prototype of nonslaved processes; opening and closing of channels are quintessential slaved motions. The prevalence of slaved motions highlights the importance of the environment in cells and membranes for the function of proteins.

Hydration, slaving and protein function.

Protein dynamics is crucial for protein function. Proteins in living systems are not isolated, but operate in networks and in a carefully regulated environment. Understanding the external control of protein dynamics is consequently important. Hydration and solvent viscosity are among the salient properties of the environment. Dehydrated proteins and proteins in a rigid environment do not function properly. It is consequently important to understand the effect of hydration and solvent viscosity in detail. We discuss experiments that separate the two effects. These experiments have predominantly been performed with wild-type horse and sperm whale myoglobin, using the binding of carbon monoxide over a broad range of temperatures as a tool. The experiments demonstrate that data taken only in the physiological temperature range are not sufficient to understand the effect of hydration and solvent on protein relaxation and function. While the actual data come from myoglobin, it is expected that the results apply to most or all globular proteins.

Effects of magnetic fields on mosquitoes.

Phylogenetically diverse organisms, including some insects, are able to detect and respond to magnetic fields comparable to the Earth's magnetic field. Because of their tremendous importance to public health, mosquitoes were tested for the presence of remanent ferromagnetic material indicative of a biological compass and also tested for behavioral responses to magnetic fields. Using a superconducting quantum interferometry device, we found that significant remnant was probably due to attraction of ferromagnetic dust onto the surface of live or dead mosquitoes. Most mosquitoes placed in a 1.0-gauss, uniform magnetic field moved until they were oriented parallel to the field. Two of 3 species of mosquitoes tested took fewer blood meals in a rotating magnetic field than in the Earth's normal magnetic field.