A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees.

Capital flows is an important aspect of the international monetary system because they provide great direct and indirect benefits, and at the same time, they carry risks of vulnerability for countries with an open economy. Numerous works have studied the behavior of these flows and have developed models to predict sudden stop events. However, the existing models have limitations and the literature demands more research on the subject given that the accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been developed for emerging countries. This paper presents a new prediction model of sudden stop events of capital flows for both emerging countries and developed countries with the ability to estimate accurately future sudden stop scenarios globally. A sample of 103 countries was used, including 73 emerging countries and 30 developed countries, which has allowed the use of sample combinations that consider the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. To the sample under study, a method of decision trees has been applied, which has provided excellent prediction results given its ability to learn characteristics and create long-term dependencies from sequential data and time series. Our model has a great potential impact on the adequacy of macroeconomic policy against the risks derived from sudden stops of capital flows, providing tools that help to achieve financial stability at the global level.

Why do football clubs fail financially? A financial distress prediction model for European professional football industry.

The study of financial distress has been the focus of financial research in recent decades and has led to the development of models for predicting financial distress that help assess the financial situation and the risks faced by companies. These models have focused exclusively on industrial and financial companies. However, a specific model that reflects the special characteristics of the football industry has not yet been created. Since recently the governing bodies of the football industry have increased the financial control of the clubs, as in the case of UEFA with the approval of the Financial Fair Play Regulation and demand a pronouncement on going concern in the annual financial statements of clubs as well as presenting a break-even deficit caused by losses, it seems necessary to have a model adapted to the characteristics of this industry. The present study provides a new model of prediction of financial distress for the football industry with an accuracy that exceeds 90%. It also offers a vision of the challenges facing the football industry in financial matters, helping the different interest groups to assess the financial solvency expectations of the clubs.

Correction: A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166693.].

Real-world clinical outcomes and predictors of glycaemic and weight response to exenatide once weekly in patients with type 2 diabetes: The CIBELES project.

AIMS: To evaluate in a real-world setting the effectiveness of exenatide once-weekly (ExQW) in patients with T2D and to determine predictors of glycaemic and weight response to this drug at 6 months. METHODS: Observational, retrospective, multicenter study in adult patients with T2D and BMI ≥30 kg/m2 from 4 tertiary Spanish hospitals who started ExQW therapy at least 6 months before the inclusion and had not achieved adequate glycaemic control on oral therapies or other GLP-1 receptor agonists. Glycaemic response was defined as an A1C reduction ≥1.0% and weight response as a weight loss ≥3% 6 months after ExQW. The best predictive models of glycaemic and weight response were estimated by binary logistic regression. RESULTS: One hundred and forty eight patients were included, mean age 58.0 years, A1C 7.7%, weight 105.9 kg and BMI 38.4 kg/m2 . A1C (-1.1%), weight (-3.9 kg), systolic blood pressure (-4.0 mm Hg), diastolic blood pressure (-2.9 mm Hg), LDL-cholesterol (-14.2 mg/dL) and triglycerides (-31.0 mg/dL) significantly decreased 6 months after ExQW. 41.5% of patients had an A1C reduction ≥1.0% and 53.1% lost ≥3% of baseline weight. Glycaemic and weight reductions were sustained in patients completing 1 and 2 years of follow-up. The best predictive model of glycaemic response only included higher A1C levels (OR 3.9), whereas higher BMI (OR 1.1) and prior DPP-4i therapy (OR 3.1) were associated to weight response in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In a real-world setting, ExQW significantly decreased A1C, weight, blood pressure and lipids at 6 months. Our study identified higher baseline A1C as the sole independent predictor of glycaemic response to ExQW and higher BMI and previous DDP4i treatment as predictive factors of meaningful weight response.

Impact of herpetic stromal immune keratitis in corneal biomechanics and innervation.

PURPOSE: To study corneal innervation in eyes with history of herpetic keratitis and its correlation with corneal sensitivity and biomechanical properties. METHODS: A total of 56 eyes were included, of which 16 had a history of unilateral immune stromal herpetic keratitis, 16 were their contralateral eyes, and 20 were healthy controls. Structural analysis of corneal nerve plexus was performed by confocal microscopy. Biomechanical properties were measured with the Ocular Response Analyzer. Corneal sensitivity was assessed by contact (Cochet-Bonnet) and non-contact (Belmonte) esthesiometry. RESULTS: The eyes with a history of herpetic keratitis had reduced sensitivity for mechanical stimuli when compared to healthy eyes (1441.88 ± 83 ml/min vs. 67.9 ± 7.86 ml/min). Nerve fiber density in the corneas with a history of herpetic disease was lower (4.13 ± 2.19 U/image) than in the contralateral eyes (7.44 ± 2.9 U/image, p value = 0.01) and than in healthy controls (10.35 ± 2.01, p value < 0.0001). The best structural and functional correlation was established between the total length of nerves per section and mechanic threshold assessed by Belmonte esthesiometer (Coef. -0.58 p value < 0.0001) and between total length of nerves and corneal resistance factor (CRF) (Coef. -0.64, p value < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The corneal sensitivity impairment in eyes with immune stromal herpetic keratitis can be explained by the loss of nerve fibers. Biomechanical corneal properties are affected as well. Corneal hysteresis (CH) and CRF are lower for the eyes with a history of herpetic keratitis, and also for the contralateral eye when compared to healthy controls.

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.

Meningitis bacteriana por Streptococcus pyogenes / Bacterial meningitis caused by Streptococcus pyogenes

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[Oncologic risk of obesity]. / Riesgo oncológico de la obesidad.

This article presents an update of scientific evidence about the relation of obesity with the incidence or mortality by cancer. Almost all large epidemiological studies agree about the oncological risk of obesity, especially with regard to some types of cancers. Different physiopathological theories to explain this association have been proposed, from simple mechanical or dietetical causes to genetic or immunologic factors, including a possible role of hormones or adipocyte humoral factors. Moreover, obesity can play a role in the prognosis of certain cancers. Prevention of obesity must be included among the strategies to fight cancer.

Riesgo oncológico de la obesidad / Oncologic risk of obesity

En este artículo se presenta una actualización de la evidencia científica disponible sobre la vinculación de la obesidad con la aparición o la mortalidad por cáncer. De forma casi unánime, los grandes estudios epidemiológicos han coincidido en que la obesidad tiene un riesgo oncológico, fundamentalmente para cierto tipo de cánceres. Las diversas teorías fisiopatológicas que se han postulado para explicar esta asociación van desde simples causas mecánicas o dietéticas hasta genéticas o inmunológicas, pasando por el papel que puedan desempeñar factores hormonales o productos de secreción del adipocito. Además, la obesidad puede tener un papel en el pronóstico de ciertos cánceres, por lo que la repercusión final de la obesidad en la mortalidad por cáncer puede llegar, en ciertas poblaciones, hasta el 20%. Por tanto, entendiendo la obesidad como un agente cancerígeno más, su prevención debe incluirse entre las medidas a adoptar en la lucha contra el cáncer

This article presents an update of scientific evidence about the relation of obesity with the incidence or mortality by cancer. Almost all large epidemiological studies agree about the oncological risk of obesity, especially with regard to some types of cancers. Different physiopathological theories to explain this association have been proposed, from simple mechanical or dietetical causes to genetic or immunologic factors, including a possible role of hormones or adipocyte humoral factors. Moreover, obesity can play a role in the prognosis of certain cancers. Prevention of obesity must be included among the strategies to fight cancer