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1.
Neotrop Entomol ; 53(1): 175-179, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38032477

ABSTRACT

This is the first report of Antiteuchus tripterus (Fabricius, 1787) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) damaging Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze, 1898 (Pinales: Araucariaceae) plants in Brazil. This bug, native to the neotropical region, damaged this plant on fragments of mixed rain forest in Bueno Brandão, Minas Gerais state, Brazil. Araucaria angustifolia, native and with ecological and economic values, was widely used in the lumber market and, therefore, threatened with extinction. Nymphs and adults of A. tripterus were observed in March and April with a population reduction until June 2022. The bioecology and damage caused by A. tripterus on A. angustifolia are not known.


Subject(s)
Araucaria , Heteroptera , Animals , Brazil , Nymph , Population Dynamics
2.
Cureus ; 15(1): e34422, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36874655

ABSTRACT

IgA vasculitis is a small vessel vasculitis mediated by the deposition of IgA immune complexes. It mostly occurs in children and is rare in adults, with increased severity and mortality in the latter. Its aetiology remains largely unknown, and its prognosis depends primarily on the extent of renal involvement. We present the case of a 71-year-old woman with purpuric lesions in both lower and upper limbs associated with fever, abdominal pain, vomiting and blood in her stools for the past month. The patient was diagnosed with IgA vasculitis and the full systemic involvement (renal, dermatological, intestinal, and cerebral) of the disease was identified with excellent response to parenteral corticotherapy.

3.
J Fungi (Basel) ; 8(9)2022 Aug 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36135617

ABSTRACT

The genus Acaulospora has undergone many updates since it was first described; however, there are some missing pieces in the phylogenetic relationships among Acaulospora species. The present review aimed to: (i) understand the evolutionary meaning of their different spore wall ornamentations; (ii) define the best molecular marker for phylogenetic inferences, (iii) address some specific issues concerning the polyphyletic nature of Acaulospora lacunosa and Acaulospora scrobiculata, and the inclusion of Kuklospora species; and (iv) update the global geographical distribution of Acaulospora species. As such, the wall ornamentation of previously described Acaulospora species was reviewed and phylogenetic analyses were carried out based on ITS and SSU-ITS-LSU (nrDNA). Moreover, the already available type material of A. sporocarpia was inspected. According to the data obtained, temperate and tropical zones are the richest in Acaulospora species. We also confirmed that A. sporocarpia does not belong to Acaulospora. Furthermore, our phylogeny supported the monophyly of Acaulospora genus, including the Kuklospora species, K. colombiana and K. kentinensis. The nrDNA phylogeny presented the best resolution and revealed the homoplasic nature of many ornamentations in Acaulospora species, pointing out their unfeasible phylogenetic signal. This review reinforces the urgency of more molecular markers, in addition to the nrDNA sequences, for the definition of a multi-locus phylogeny.

4.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(21): 5514-5531, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34486773

ABSTRACT

Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change ('climate-smart MSP') is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change ('CC') modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP-specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real-life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate-driven ecosystem-level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors' present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector-relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate-adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature-based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate-smart MSP.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Ecosystem , Adaptation, Physiological , Conservation of Natural Resources , Fisheries , Oceanography
5.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(7): 3891-3905, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32378286

ABSTRACT

Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.


Subject(s)
Fisheries , Fishes , Animals , Climate Change , Ecosystem , North Sea
6.
Sci Total Environ ; 724: 138082, 2020 Jul 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32268283

ABSTRACT

The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions.

7.
Acta Crystallogr C Struct Chem ; 76(Pt 2): 117, 2020 02 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32022704
8.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 116(26): 12907-12912, 2019 06 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31186360

ABSTRACT

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.


Subject(s)
Biomass , Climate Change , Oceans and Seas , Animals , Aquatic Organisms/physiology , Fisheries/statistics & numerical data , Fishes/physiology , Food Chain , Models, Theoretical
9.
Sci Total Environ ; 651(Pt 2): 1720-1734, 2019 Feb 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30316090

ABSTRACT

Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) or river shad is an anadromous fish species widely distributed in the North Indian Ocean, mainly in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Hilsa is the national fish of Bangladesh and it contributes 10% of the total fish production of the country, with a market value of $1.74 billion. Hilsa also holds a very important place in the economics of West Bengal of India with 12.5% of the catch and also tops the marine capture in Myanmar. During the last two decades Hilsa production from inland waters has been stable, whereas marine yields in the BoB increased substantially. In order to sustainably manage the trans-boundary stock of Hilsa, the taxonomy, distribution, habitat, migration patterns, population dynamics, fisheries and socio-economics aspects of the fishery have been reviewed here. To achieve a successful trans-boundary management for the Hilsa stock, complete ban on undersize fishing, well-targeted temporal and spatial bans, creation of protected areas in strategic points, incentive for Hilsa fishers and ecological restoration of Hilsa habitats and more work on technological development of Hilsa aquaculture are recommended.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Fisheries , Fishes/physiology , Life History Traits , Animals , Bangladesh , Bays , Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation & jurisprudence , India , Myanmar , Population Dynamics
10.
Chemistry ; 24(50): 13170-13180, 2018 Sep 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30028544

ABSTRACT

The metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) M(BPZNO2 ) (M=Co, Cu, Zn; H2 BPZNO2 =3-nitro-4,4'-bipyrazole) were prepared through solvothermal routes and were fully investigated in the solid state. They showed good thermal stability both under a N2 atmosphere and in air, with decomposition temperatures peaking up to 663 K for Zn(BPZNO2 ). Their crystal structure is characterized by 3D networks with square (M=Co, Zn) or rhombic (M=Cu) channels decorated by polar NO2 groups. As revealed by N2 adsorption at 77 K, they are micro-mesoporous materials with BET specific surface areas ranging from 400 to 900 m2 g-1 . Remarkably, under the mild conditions of 298 K and 1.2 bar, Zn(BPZNO2 ) adsorbs 21.8 wt % CO2 (4.95 mmol g-1 ). It shows a Henry CO2 /N2 selectivity of 15 and an ideal adsorbed solution theory (IAST) selectivity of 12 at p=1 bar. As a CO2 adsorbent, this compound is the best-performing MOF to date among those bearing a nitro group as a unique chemical tag. High-resolution powder X-ray diffraction at 298 K and different CO2 loadings revealed, for the first time in a NO2 -functionalized MOF, the insurgence of primary host-guest interactions involving the C(3)-NO2 moiety of the framework and the oxygen atoms of carbon dioxide, as confirmed by Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulations. This interaction mode is markedly different from that observed in NH2 -functionalized MOFs, for which the carbon atom of CO2 is involved.

11.
Sci Total Environ ; 637-638: 954-970, 2018 Oct 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29763877

ABSTRACT

Aquatic ecosystems are of global importance for maintaining high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and for the number of livelihoods dependent on them. In Bangladesh, coastal and delta communities rely on these systems for a livelihood, and the sustainability of the productivity is seriously threatened by both climate change and unsustainable management. These multiple drivers of change shape the livelihood dependence and adaptation responses, where a better understanding is needed to achieve sustainable management in these systems, while maintaining and improving dependent livelihoods. This need has been addressed in this study in the region of Satkhira, in the southwest coast of Bangladesh, where livelihoods are highly dependent on aquatic systems for food supply and income. Traditional wild fish harvest in the rivers and aquaculture systems, including ghers, ponds, and crab points have been changing in terms of the uses and intensity of management, and suffering from climate change impacts as well. By means of six focus groups with 50 participants total, and validated by expert consultations, we conduct an analysis to understand the main perceived impacts from climate and human activities; and the adaptation responses from the aquatic system livelihoods. We find that biodiversity has decreased drastically, while farmed species have increased and shrimp gher farming turned more intensive becoming the main source of income. All these changes have important implications for food supply in the region and environmental sustainability. Dramatic responses taken in the communities include exit the fisheries and migration, and more adaptive responses include species diversification, crab fattening and working more on the pond and gher infrastructure. This study evidences the results of the combination of multiple stressors in productive systems and the barriers to adaptation in aquatic ecosystem dependent communities.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Conservation of Natural Resources , Ecosystem , Fisheries/statistics & numerical data , Animals , Bangladesh , Humans
12.
Sci Total Environ ; 635: 659-672, 2018 Sep 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29680757

ABSTRACT

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

13.
Front Microbiol ; 9: 86, 2018.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29467729

ABSTRACT

Cryptococcosis, one of the most important systemic mycosis in the world, is caused by different genotypes of Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii, which differ in their ecology, epidemiology, and antifungal susceptibility. Therefore, the search for new molecular markers for genotyping, pathogenicity and drug susceptibility is necessary. Group I introns fulfill the requisites for such task because (i) they are polymorphic sequences; (ii) their self-splicing is inhibited by some drugs; and (iii) their correct splicing under parasitic conditions is indispensable for pathogen survival. Here, we investigated the presence of group I introns in the mitochondrial LSU rRNA gene in 77 Cryptococcus isolates and its possible relation to drug susceptibility. Sequencing revealed two new introns in the LSU rRNA gene. All the introns showed high sequence similarity to other mitochondrial introns from distinct fungi, supporting the hypothesis of an ancient non-allelic invasion. Intron presence was statistically associated with those genotypes reported to be less pathogenic (p < 0.001). Further virulence assays are needed to confirm this finding. In addition, in vitro antifungal tests indicated that the presence of LSU rRNA introns may influence the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of amphotericin B and 5-fluorocytosine. These findings point to group I introns in the mitochondrial genome of Cryptococcus as potential molecular markers for antifungal resistance, as well as therapeutic targets.

14.
PLoS One ; 12(2): e0171382, 2017.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28152032

ABSTRACT

This study presents a methodology for the automated analysis of commercial medium-range sonar signals for detecting presence/absence of bluefin tuna (Tunnus thynnus) in the Bay of Biscay. The approach uses image processing techniques to analyze sonar screenshots. For each sonar image we extracted measurable regions and analyzed their characteristics. Scientific data was used to classify each region into a class ("tuna" or "no-tuna") and build a dataset to train and evaluate classification models by using supervised learning. The methodology performed well when validated with commercial sonar screenshots, and has the potential to automatically analyze high volumes of data at a low cost. This represents a first milestone towards the development of acoustic, fishery-independent indices of abundance for bluefin tuna in the Bay of Biscay. Future research lines and additional alternatives to inform stock assessments are also discussed.


Subject(s)
Fisheries , Tuna , Animals , Atlantic Ocean , Population Surveillance/methods , Sound
15.
Front Microbiol ; 7: 1585, 2016.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27777569

ABSTRACT

Inteins are invasive intervening sequences that perform an autocatalytic splicing from their host proteins. Among eukaryotes, these elements are present in many fungal species, including those considered opportunistic or primary pathogens, such as Candida spp. Here we reviewed and updated the list of Candida species containing inteins in the genes VMA, THRRS and GLT1 and pointed out the importance of these elements as molecular markers for molecular epidemiological researches and species-specific diagnosis, since the presence, as well as the size of these inteins, is polymorphic among the different species. Although absent in Candida albicans, these elements are present in different sizes, in some environmental Candida spp. and also in most of the non-albicans Candida spp. considered emergent opportunistic pathogens. Besides, the possible role of these inteins in yeast physiology was also discussed in the light of the recent findings on the importance of these elements as post-translational modulators of gene expression, reinforcing their relevance as alternative therapeutic targets for the treatment of non-albicans Candida infections, because, once the splicing of an intein is inhibited, its host protein, which is usually a housekeeping protein, becomes non-functional.

16.
Glob Chang Biol ; 22(12): 3927-3936, 2016 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27396719

ABSTRACT

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Conservation of Natural Resources , Ecosystem , Oceans and Seas , Food Chain , Human Activities , Humans
17.
Acta Crystallogr E Crystallogr Commun ; 71(Pt 7): 840-3, 2015 Jul 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26279881

ABSTRACT

Both the 3-amino-2H,4H-1,2,4-triazolium cation and the pyrazine-2-carboxyl-ate anion in the title salt, C2H5N4 (+)·C5H3N2O2 (-), were formed by an unexpected deca-rboxylation reaction, from 5-amino-1H-1,2,4-triazole-3-carb-oxy-lic acid and pyrazine-2,3-di-carb-oxy-lic acid, respectively. The dihedral angle between the pyrazine ring (r.m.s. deviation = 0.008 Å) and the carboxyl-ate group in the anion is 3.7 (3)°. The extended structure of the salt contains a supra-molecular zigzag tape in which cations and anions are engaged in strong and highly directional N-H⋯N,O hydrogen bonds, forming R 2 (2)(8) and R 2 (2)(9) graph-set motifs. The packing between the tapes is mediated by π-π stacking inter-actions between the triazole and pyrazine rings.

18.
Molecules ; 20(7): 12341-63, 2015 Jul 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26198221

ABSTRACT

The synthesis and structural characterization of five transition metal complexes with different dimensionality and incorporating residues of 3-amino-1H-1,2,4-triazole-5-carboxylic acid (H2atrc) is reported: [Zn(Hatrc)2(H2O)] (1), [Mn(Hatrc)2(H2O)2]·2H2O (2), [Fe2(Hatrc)4(OH)2]·6H2O (3), [Cd(Hatrc)2(H2O)]n (4), and [Mn(atrc)(H2O)]n·nH2O (5). These materials could be prepared from solution (1-3), diffusion (4), or hydrothermal reactions (5) with various anions and L:M ratios. Structural details were revealed by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The discrete units composing compounds 1-3, the polymeric 1D chain of 4 and the 2D layer of 5 are further extended into 3D supramolecular architectures through the formation of hydrogen bonds.


Subject(s)
Carboxylic Acids/chemistry , Metals, Heavy/chemistry , Triazoles/chemistry , Ligands , Models, Molecular , Polymers/chemistry
19.
Acta Crystallogr E Crystallogr Commun ; 71(Pt 4): 330-5, 2015 Apr 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26029382

ABSTRACT

The crystal structures of bis-[4'-(pyridin-4-yl)-2,2':6',2''-terpyridine]-man-gan-ese(II) bis-(hexa-fluorido-phosphate) monohydrate, [Mn(C20H14N4)2](PF6)2·H2O, (1), and bis-[4'-(pyridin-4-yl)-2,2':6',2''-terpyridine]-manganese(II) bis(hexa-fluorido-phosphate) acetone monosolvate, (2), [Mn(C20H14N4)2](PF6)2·CH3COCH3, are described. At 150 K, (1) and (2) have monoclinic (P21/c) and ortho-rhom-bic (C2221) symmetries, respectively. Both structures exhibit octahedrally coordinated Mn(II) atoms and disorder. They display weak inter-actions, such as C-H⋯F, C-H⋯N, C-H⋯π, F⋯π and π-π. The twofold rotation axis in the molecule of (2) is coincident with a twofold rotation axis of the crystal.

20.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(1): 130-43, 2015 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25044416

ABSTRACT

Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual-level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual-level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local-environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual-level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Gastropoda/physiology , Hot Temperature , Hydrogen-Ion Concentration , Population Dynamics , Predatory Behavior/physiology , Seawater/chemistry , Animal Distribution/physiology , Animals , Atlantic Ocean , Global Warming , Models, Theoretical
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