ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction. METHODS: Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days. RESULTS: In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9-55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5-27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC. DISCUSSION: These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.
Subject(s)
End Stage Liver Disease/etiology , Hepatitis, Alcoholic/mortality , Liver/physiopathology , Adult , Discriminant Analysis , End Stage Liver Disease/mortality , End Stage Liver Disease/physiopathology , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Global Health , Hepatitis, Alcoholic/complications , Hepatitis, Alcoholic/physiopathology , Humans , Liver Function Tests , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness Index , Survival Rate/trends , Time FactorsABSTRACT
Patients with HCV genotype 3 (GT3) infection and cirrhosis are currently the most difficult to cure. We report our experience with sofosbuvir+daclatasvir (SOF+DCV) or sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (SOF/LDV), with or without ribavirin (RBV) in clinical practice in this population. This was a multicenter observational study including cirrhotic patients infected by HCV GT3, treated with sofosbuvir plus an NS5A inhibitor (May 2014-October 2015). In total, 208 patients were included: 98 (47%) treatment-experienced, 42 (20%) decompensated and 55 (27%) MELD score >10. In 131 (63%), treatment was SOF+DCV and in 77 (37%), SOF/LDV. Overall, 86% received RBV. RBV addition and extension to 24 weeks was higher in the SOF/LDV group (95% vs 80%, P=.002 and 83% vs 72%, P=.044, respectively). A higher percentage of decompensated patients were treated with DCV than LDV (25% vs 12%, P=.013). Overall, SVR12 was 93.8% (195/208): 94% with SOF+DCV and 93.5% with SOF/LDV. SVR12 was achieved in 90.5% of decompensated patients. Eleven treatment failures: 10 relapses and one breakthrough. RBV addition did not improve SVR (RR: 1.08; P=.919). The single factor associated with failure to achieve SVR was platelet count <75×10E9/mL (RR: 3.50, P=.019). In patients with MELD <10, type of NS5A inhibitor did not impact on SVR12 (94% vs 97%; adjusted RR: 0.49). Thirteen patients (6.3%) had serious adverse events, including three deaths (1.4%) and one therapy discontinuation (0.5%), higher in decompensated patients (16.7% vs 3.6%, P<.006). In patients with GT3 infection and cirrhosis, SVR12 rates were high with both SOF+DCV and SOF/LDV, with few serious adverse events.
