Development and validation of predictive model for long-term hospitalization, readmission, and in-hospital death of patients over 60 years old.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a high-risk predictive model that identifies, at least, one common adverse event in older population: early readmission (up to 30 days after discharge), long hospital stays (10 days or more) or in-hospital deaths. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study including patients aged 60 years or older (n=340) admitted at a 630-beds tertiary hospital, located in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A predictive model of high-risk indication was developed by analyzing logistical regression models. This model prognostic capacity was assessed by measuring accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence intervals were also obtained to assess the discriminatory power of the model. Internal validation of the prognostic model was performed in a separate sample (n=168). RESULTS: Statistically significant predictors were identified, such as current Barthel Index, number of medications in use, presence of diabetes mellitus, difficulty chewing or swallowing, extensive surgery, and dementia. The study observed discrimination model acceptance in the construction sample 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.83) and good calibration. The characteristics of the validation samples were similar, and the receiver operating characteristic curve area was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.598-0.776). We could assess an older patient's adverse health events during hospitalization after admission. CONCLUSION: A predictive model with acceptable discrimination was obtained, with satisfactory results for early readmission (30 days), long hospital stays (10 days), or in-hospital death.

Development and validation of predictive model for long-term hospitalization, readmission, and in-hospital death of patients over 60 years old

ABSTRACT Objective To develop and validate a high-risk predictive model that identifies, at least, one common adverse event in older population: early readmission (up to 30 days after discharge), long hospital stays (10 days or more) or in-hospital deaths. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study including patients aged 60 years or older (n=340) admitted at a 630-beds tertiary hospital, located in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A predictive model of high-risk indication was developed by analyzing logistical regression models. This model prognostic capacity was assessed by measuring accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence intervals were also obtained to assess the discriminatory power of the model. Internal validation of the prognostic model was performed in a separate sample (n=168). Results Statistically significant predictors were identified, such as current Barthel Index, number of medications in use, presence of diabetes mellitus, difficulty chewing or swallowing, extensive surgery, and dementia. The study observed discrimination model acceptance in the construction sample 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.83) and good calibration. The characteristics of the validation samples were similar, and the receiver operating characteristic curve area was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.598-0.776). We could assess an older patient's adverse health events during hospitalization after admission. Conclusion A predictive model with acceptable discrimination was obtained, with satisfactory results for early readmission (30 days), long hospital stays (10 days), or in-hospital death.

Impaired chair-to-bed transfer ability leads to longer hospital stays among elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: The study objectives were to identify the main predictive factors for long hospital stays and to propose new and improved methods of risk assessment. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted in the clinics and surgical wards of a tertiary hospital and involved 523 elderly patients over 60 years of age. Demographic, clinical, functional, and cognitive characteristics assessed between 48 and 72 h after admission were analyzed to investigate correlations with lengths of stay greater than 10 days. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed, and in the final model, long-term probability scores were estimated for each variable. RESULTS: Of the 523 patients studied, 33 (6.3%) remained hospitalized for more than 10 days. Multiple regression analysis revealed that both the presence of diabetes and the inability to perform chair-to-bed transfers (Barthel Index) remained significant risk predictors. Diabetes doubled the risk of prolonged hospital stays, while a chair-to-bed transfer score of 0 or 5 led to an eight-fold increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we propose an easy method that can be used, after external validation, to screen for long-term risk (using diabetes and bed/chair transfer) as a first step in identifying hospitalized elderly patients who will require comprehensive assessment to guide prevention plans and rehabilitation programs.

Non-motor Factors Associated with the Attainment of Community Ambulation after Stroke.

OBJECTIVE: Detect the main predictive non-motor factors related to independent community ambulation after stroke. Furthermore, we propose a scale to estimate the probability of a stroke patient achieving independent community ambulation after 6 months of rehabilitation. DESIGN AND SETTINGS: Prospective cohort. Subjects treated in a rehabilitation center in a large metropolitan area. Independent community ambulation was evaluated after rehabilitation according to the Hoffer classification. Functional ambulation was assessed at four levels: nonambulatory, nonfunctional ambulation, household ambulation, and community ambulation. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n=201) with a moderate disability after stroke. RESULTS: The average time of hospitalization was 19.3 days. However, only 32.8% of the patients started the rehabilitation program during the first 6 months after stroke. We found that 121 patients achieved community ambulation (60.2%), 40 achieved household ambulation (19.9%), 12 achieved therapeutic ambulation (5.9%), and 28 were non-ambulatory after 6 months of treatment. Based on our final model, a scoring scale was created in order to evaluate the probability of stroke patients achieving independent community ambulation after 6 months of rehabilitation. Higher scores were associated with better chances of community ambulation within 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: The scale that evaluated these factors proved to have acceptable sensitivity and specificity to establish the prognosis of community ambulation after 6 months of rehabilitation.

Reabilitação física na síndrome de fragilidade do idoso / Physical rehabilitation in the frailty syndrome among the elderly

São considerados idosos frágeis aqueles com vulnerabilidade intrínseca a desenvolver incapacidades e eventos adversos relacionados à saúde. A prevalência de fragilidade aumenta com a idade e a Associação Médica Americana estima que 40% das pessoas com mais de 80 anos são frágeis.Objetivo: Demonstrar os resultados obtidos com o protocolo de reabilitação para idosos frágeis, implementado no Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein-Unidade Vila Mariana. Metódo: Estudo do tipo série de casos, descritivo, retrospectivo, com 12 idosos que cumpriram o programa de reabilitaçãofísica, do ambulatório de geriatria, da Unidade Vila Mariana, do Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein. Resultados: A média de idade foi de 77 anos, 75% dos participantes eram do sexo feminino e apresentavam em média 7,5 diagnósticos. Houve melhora em todos os domínios avaliados: equilí-brio (p = 0,02), velocidade de marcha (p < 0,01), força de membros inferiores (p < 0,01) e força de preensão (p < 0,01) na população estudada. Os idosos com 80 anos ou mais apresentaram melhorade 83% enquanto aqueles com menos de 80 anos mostraram melhora de 41%. Verificou-se que 8 dos 10 idosos que encontravam se na faixa de alto risco para incapacidade, hospitalização e morte (SPPB igual ou menor que 9) conseguiram sair da faixa de risco. Todos demonstraram melhora empelo menos um domínio. Nenhuma piora ou complicação foi verificada. Conclusão: O protocolo de reabilitação para síndrome de fragilidade do idoso, utilizado no ambulatório da Unidade Vila Marina, do Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, foi capaz de melhorar os domínios equilíbrio, velocidadede marcha, força de membros inferiores e força de preensão palmar na população estudada.

Frail elderly are those who have intrinsic vulnerability to develop disabilities and adverse events related to health. The prevalence of frailty increases with age. The American Medical Association estimates that 40% of those over 80 years old are fragile. Objective: To demonstrate the resultsobtained with the rehabilitation protocol for the frailty syndrome at Vila Mariana Geriatric Outpatient Unit of the Israelita Albert Einstein Hospital. Method: Series of cases study, descriptive and retrospective of 12 elderly who have accomplish the physical rehabilitation program at Vila Mariana geriatric outpatient unit in the Israelita Albert Einstein Hospital. Results: The average age was 77 years, 75% of the participants were female with an average of 7,5 diagnoses. There was improvement in all areas evaluated: balance (p = 0.02), gait speed (p < 0.01), lower limb strength(p < 0.01) and grip strength (p < 0.01). Those who aged 80 or more showed improvement of 83% while those with less than 80 years old, showed an improvement of 41%. It was found that 8 of 10 seniors who met on the track at high risk for disability, hospitalization and death (SPPB equal orless than 9) was able to leave the risk range. It was showed improvement in at least one domain. No deterioration or complication was observed. Conclusion: The rehabilitation protocol for the frailty syndrome that was used at Vila Mariana geriatric outpatient unit was able to improve thebalance, gait speed, lower limb strength and grip strength in the population studied.

Processos comunicativos dos indivíduos com lesão do hemisfério direito / Communicative processes of individuals with injuries of the right cerebral hemisphere

Objetivo: O presente estudo teve como objetivo traçar o perfil de linguagem de pacientes com lesão de hemisfério direito atendidos na Associação de Assistência a Criança Deficiente (AACD/Unidade Ibirapuera - Central), bem como verificar a percepção dos cuidadores e dos pacientes em relação à presença ou não de alterações de linguagem pós-acidente vascular cerebral. Método: O estudo descritivo foi desenvolvido de julho a setembro de 2009 com 11 indivíduos adultos por meio da aplicação da Bateria Montreal de Avaliação da Comunicação/Bateria MAC, prova Questionário sobre a Consciência das Dificuldades e o questionário Triagem de Distúrbios Comunicativos em Indivíduos com quadro neurológico, direcionado aos familiares e/ou cuidadores. Resultados: Verificou-se que 90,9% dos pacientes com Lesão de Hemisfério Direito apresentaram déficit em pelo menos uma das provas que compunham a Bateria MAC de avaliação da linguagem. Conclusão: Mostra-se também de extrema importância o achado relacionado à ausência de percepção dos pacientes em relação as suas próprias alterações linguístico-cognitivas, não pela inexistência de impactos em sua vida diária, mas devido à agnosia.

Objective: This study aimed to profile the language skills of patients with damage to the right cerebral hemisphere attended at the Ibirapuera Unit (Central) of the Association for the Welfare of Handicapped Children - AACD (Associação de Assistência à Criança Deficiente - AACD/Unidade Ibirapuera - Central), and to discover the perceptions of caregivers and patients regarding the presence or absence of language disorders after a stroke. Method: The descriptive study was conducted from July to September of 2009 with 11 adults through the application of the Montreal Communication Evaluation Battery (known in Brazil as Bateria MAC) tests, the Questionnaire on Awareness of Difficulties, and the Communicative Disorders Screening on individuals with neurological conditions, direct relatives, and/or caregivers. Results: It was found that 90.9% of patients with injuries of the right cerebral hemisphere had a deficit in at least one of the tests comprising the Bateria MAC assessment of language. Conclusion: Findings showing the patient?s absence of awareness of their linguistic and cognitive deficits are also very important, not only about their daily life activities, but about their agnosia.

Terapia por contensão induzida: estudo de follow-up / Constraint-induced movement therapy: follow-up study

A Terapia por Contensão Induzida (TCI) é uma técnica que visa à recuperação do membro superior, de pacientes com acidente vascular cerebral, através de um tratamento intensivo. O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar os ganhos motores após um ano de tratamento. Foram selecionados 17 pacientes, que realizaram a TCI, e foram aplicados os testes Wolf Motor Function Test e o Actin Research Arm Test em três períodos distintos. No follow-up foi observado retenção do ganho motor nos pacientes e diminuição da velocidade do movimento

Grupo de atividades de vida diária: influência do procedimento em pacientes adultos com acidente vascular encefálico isquêmico / Daily life activities group: the influence of the procedure in ischemic stroke adult patients

O acidente vascular encefálico (AVE) pode gerar seqüelas motorasacarretando dificuldades em vários aspectos funcionais da vida diáriado indivíduo. O terapeuta ocupacional pode intervir com essa população,com o objetivo de diminuir as limitações adquiridas. Uma das modalidades de tratamento é o atendimento em grupo, em função da riqueza das trocas existentes no mesmo. Este estudo visou analisar os resultados do procedimento do grupo de Atividades de Vida Diária(AVDs) composto por pacientes com seqüelas de AVE isquêmico. Foramincluídos 10 sujeitos com seqüelas de AVE isquêmico, que participaramdo grupo de AVDs, sendo os mesmos avaliados por meio da HAQ (Health Assessment Questionnaire) e da FAQ (Functional Activities Questionnaire), em dois momentos pré e pós intervenção. Para a análise dos dados foi utilizado o teste Wilcoxon com p ≤ 0,05. Após análise de resultados pré e pós intervenção verificou-se diferença significativa para ambos os instrumentos de avaliação (HAQ p=0.001 e FAQ p=0,0117). O estudo mostrou a eficácia do procedimento - grupo de AVDs, composto por sujeitos com sequelas de AVE isquêmico emfase crônica, através da mensuração dos ganhos funcionais obtidospela HAQ e FAQ. Estudos com um número maior de pacientes são necessários para uma maior generalização das conclusões.

Strokes affect people’s daily lives because they create difficulties in manyfunctional aspects of the individual’s daily life. Occupational therapistscan intervene with stroke patients by trying to decrease their acquiredlimitations. Treatment can be done individually or in groups whereexperiential interchange is possible. This study sought to analyze theprogress in the various Daily Life Activities (DLAs) of ischemic strokepatients. Ten patients were included in the study and were evaluated before and after the intervention using two different scales: the HAQ (Health Assessment Questionnaire) and the FAQ (Functional Activities Questionnaire). The Wilcoxon statistic test was used to analyze data with p ≤ 0.05. Analysis of results revealed statistical differences for both scales between the two analyzed moments (HAQ p=0.001 and FAQ p=0.0117). The study showed the effectiveness of the procedure on the progress of the DLAs for a group of subjects suffering from chronic ischemic EVA by measuring the functional gains shown in the HAQ and FAQ, but largerstudies are necessary to allow more generalized conclusions.

Aplicação do protocolo modificado da terapia de contensão induzida em pacientes hemiparéticos / Application of modified protocol of constraint-induced movement therapy in hemiparetic patients

A Terapia por Contensão Induzida (TCI) é uma terapêutica que visa à recuperação da função do membro superior em pacientes hemiparéticos através de um tratamento intensivo e novos protocolos estão sendo desenvolvidos para diminuir a carga horária da TCI. O objetivo deste trabalho é relatar os efeitos terapêuticos do protocolo modificado de duas semanas com três horas. Foram aplicados os testes Wolf Motor Function Test, Action Researcher Arm Test e Motor Activity Log em três períodos distintos e observou-se melhora nos mesmos. O protocolo modificado da TCI é possível de ser utilizado como tratamento adjunto da reabilitação.

O uso da terapia por ondas de choques radiais no ombro doloroso por subluxação após um acidente vascular cerebral: série de casos / The use of extracorporeal shock wave therapy in the painful shoulder condition due to subluxation in the stroke patient: case series

Uma das principais causas de ombro doloroso após o acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) parece ser o tracionameneto das estruturas periarticulares devido à luxação ou subluxação, o que acarreta um processo inflamatório crônico nestas estruturas. A terapia por ondas de choque radiais (TOC radias) vem se mostrando um importante recurso para tratar dores crônicas, que falharam ao tratamento convencional. Este estudo teve por objetivo avaliar o efeito das TOC radias no ombro doloroso por subluxação após AVC. Participaram do estudo nove pacientes hemiparéticos com dor no ombro associada a subluxação, sem sucesso ao tratamento conservador por pelo menos seis meses.Os pacientes receberam três aplicações da TOC radiais (2000 pulsos, com freqüência de 6 Hz), com intervalos de duas semanas. Um paciente foi excluído do estudo por ter sido submetido a bloqueio químico durante o tratamento. Os oito restantes tiveram alívio considerável da dor (entre 100 por cento e 34 por cento, segundo a escala visual analógica) que se manteve até um mês após o final do tratamento. Houve associação do alívio da dor com melhora da mobilidade ativa, amplitude articular, sono e redução do uso de medicamentos analgésicos. Não foram descritos efeitos colaterais de qualquer natureza. Os autores concluem que as TOC radiais podem ser um recurso efetivo para o controle da dor no ombro de pacientes hemiplégicos, além de lançar mais evidências no esclarecimento da possível etiologia inflamatória da dor no ombro desses pacientes.

Retorno à produtividade após reabilitação de pacientes deambuladores vítimas de trauma encefálico / Return to productivity after rehabilitation by walking patients, traumatic brain injury survivors

Vítimas de trauma craniencefálico (TCE) frequentemente alcançam independência nas atividades de vida diária, mas encontram limitações quanto à participação na comunidade ou no trabalho produtivo. Este estudo visou verificar o índice de retorno, após o programa de reabilitação, à produtividade (estudo e/ou trabalho) de sujeitos que haviam tido TCE...

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) survivors are frequently independent regarding daily life activities, but often face limitation concerning community participation or productive work. This study aimed at determining the rate of return to productivy (studying or working) of subjects having suffered TBI...