ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Availability of a healthy, human-leukocyte-antigen-matched hematopoietic stem cell source is a prerequisite for successful allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. In 70% of cases, the search of hematopoietic stem cells shifts from siblings to unrelated donor registries. Given that the Human Leucocytes Antigens (HLA) system is highly polymorphic and that the cost of HLA typing remains high, the adequacy between registry content and patient needs must be assessed. Registries should be optimally organized to increase the probability for any given patient to find a donor. METHODS: A welfare function associated with the existence of an HLA registry was defined as was a measure of the advantage for laboratories having performed HLA typing. We hypothesized a way to formalize registry efficiency and applied it to the French Hematopoietic Stem Cell donors Registry. RESULTS: The model determined an implicit value for the stem cell graft and showed that efficiency increased very slowly with increasing number of potential donors in registries. The optimal size of a registry was found to be sensitive to model parameters. CONCLUSION: Increased registry size, in terms of number of donors foreseeable in the French registry, would have a limited impact on registry efficiency and thus social effectiveness. Nevertheless, the calibration of the model justifies the goal of recruiting 100000 new volunteer donors over the next 10 years as proposed by the French government in the "Graft Plan". The policy of the regulatory agency should be oriented towards improving the probability a compatible potential donor identified during a preliminary search would become an actual fully compatible donor and towards reducing the cost of typing.
