ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the applicability of a new score for predicting mediastinitis - MagedanzSCORE - in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in the Division of Cardiovascular Surgery of Pronto Socorro Cardiológico de Pernambuco - PROCAPE. METHODS: Retrospective study involving 500 patients operated between May/2007 and April/2010. The registers contained all the information used to calculate the MagedanzSCORE. The outcome of interest was mediastinitis. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, concordance and accuracy. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve. RESULTS: The incidence of mediastinitis was 5.6%, with a lethality rate of 32.1%. In univariate analysis, the five variables of the MagedanzSCORE were predictors of postoperative mediastinitis: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 6.42; 95.0% CI 2.76-14.96; P<0.001), obesity (OR 3.06; 95.0% CI 1.32-7.09; P=0.009), surgical reintervention (OR 82.40; 95.0% CI 30.40-223.30; P<0.001), multiple transfusion (OR 3.33; 95.0% CI 1.52-7.29; P=0.003) and stable angina class IV or unstable (OR 2.59; 95.0% CI 1.19-7.64; P=0.016) according to Canadian Cardiovascular Society. The score had a sensitivity of 96.4%, specificity of 90.0%, positive predictive value of 36.5%, negative predictive value of 99.8% and 90.4% concordance. The accuracy measured by the area under the ROC curve was 96.2% (95.0% CI 94.5%-97.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The MagedanzSCORE proved to be a simple and objective index, revealing a satisfactory predictor of development of postoperative mediastinitis in patients undergoing CABG surgery at our institution.
Subject(s)
Coronary Artery Bypass/adverse effects , Mediastinitis/diagnosis , Angina Pectoris/complications , Blood Transfusion/statistics & numerical data , Epidemiologic Methods , Female , Humans , Male , Mediastinitis/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Obesity/complications , Postoperative Complications/diagnosis , Postoperative Complications/epidemiology , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/complications , Reoperation/statistics & numerical data , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Assessment/standardsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the applicability of a new score for predicting mediastinitis - MagedanzSCORE - in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in the Division of Cardiovascular Surgery of Pronto Socorro Cardiológico de Pernambuco - PROCAPE. METHODS: Retrospective study involving 500 patients operated between May/2007 and April/2010. The registers contained all the information used to calculate the MagedanzSCORE. The outcome of interest was mediastinitis. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, concordance and accuracy. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve. RESULTS: The incidence of mediastinitis was 5.6%, with a lethality rate of 32.1%. In univariate analysis, the five variables of the MagedanzSCORE were predictors of postoperative mediastinitis: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 6.42; 95.0% CI 2.76-14.96; P<0.001), obesity (OR 3.06; 95.0% CI 1.32-7.09; P=0.009), surgical reintervention (OR 82.40; 95.0% CI 30.40-223.30; P<0.001), multiple transfusion (OR 3.33; 95.0% CI 1.52-7.29; P=0.003) and stable angina class IV or unstable (OR 2.59; 95.0% CI 1.19-7.64; P=0.016) according to Canadian Cardiovascular Society. The score had a sensitivity of 96.4%, specificity of 90.0%, positive predictive value of 36.5%, negative predictive value of 99.8% and 90.4% concordance. The accuracy measured by the area under the ROC curve was 96.2% (95.0% CI 94.5%-97.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The MagedanzSCORE proved to be a simple and objective index, revealing a satisfactory predictor of development of postoperative mediastinitis in patients undergoing CABG surgery at our institution.
OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar a aplicabilidade de um novo escore de predição de mediastinite - MagedanzSCORE - em pacientes submetidos à cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica (CRM) na Divisão de Cirurgia Cardiovascular do Pronto Socorro Cardiológico de Pernambuco - PROCAPE. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo envolvendo 500 pacientes operados entre maio/2007 e abril/2010. Os registros continham todas as informações utilizadas para calcular o MagedanzSCORE. O desfecho de interesse foi mediastinite. Foram calculados sensibilidade, especificidade, valor preditivo positivo, valor preditivo negativo, concordância e acurácia. A acurácia do modelo foi avaliada pelo ROC (receiver operating characteristic curve). RESULTADOS: A incidência de mediastinite foi de 5,6%, com uma taxa de letalidade de 32,1%. Na análise univariada, as cinco variáveis do MagedanzSCORE foram preditoras de mediastinite no pós-operatório: doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica (OR 6,42; IC 95,0% 2,76-14,96; P<0,001), obesidade (OR 3,06; IC 95,0% 1,32-7,09; P=0,009), reintervenção cirúrgica (OR 82,40; IC 95,0% 30,40-223,30; p<0,001), transfusões múltiplas (OR 3,33; IC 95,0% 1,52-7,29; P=0,003) e angina estável classe IV ou instável (OR 2,59; IC 95,0% 1,19-7,64; P=0,016) de acordo com a Sociedade Canadense de Cardiologia. O escore teve uma sensibilidade de 96,4%, especificidade de 90,0%, valor preditivo positivo de 36,5%, valor preditivo negativo de 99,8% e 90,4% de concordância. A acurácia medida pela área sob a curva ROC foi 96,2% (IC 95,0% 94,5%-97,9%). CONCLUSÕES: O MagedanzSCORE provou ser um índice simples e objetivo, revelando-se um preditor satisfatório de desenvolvimento de mediastinite no pós-operatório de pacientes submetidos à CRM em nossa instituição.
