Prediction models for carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales carriage at liver transplantation: A multicenter retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) colonisation at liver transplantation (LT) increases the risk of CRE infection after LT, which impacts on recipients' survival. Colonization status usually becomes evident only near LT. Thus, predictive models can be useful to guide antibiotic prophylaxis in endemic centres. AIMS: This study aimed to identify risk factors for CRE colonisation at LT in order to build a predictive model. METHODS: Retrospective multicentre study including consecutive adult patients who underwent LT, from 2010 to 2019, at two large teaching hospitals. We excluded patients who had CRE infections within 90 days before LT. CRE screening was performed in all patients on the day of LT. Exposure variables were considered within 90 days before LT and included cirrhosis complications, underlying disease, time on the waiting list, MELD and CLIF-SOFA scores, antibiotic use, intensive care unit and hospital stay, and infections. A machine learning model was trained to detect the probability of a patient being colonized with CRE at LT. RESULTS: A total of 1544 patients were analyzed, 116 (7.5%) patients were colonized by CRE at LT. The median time from CRE isolation to LT was 5 days. Use of antibiotics, hepato-renal syndrome, worst CLIF sofa score, and use of beta-lactam/beta-lactamase inhibitor increased the probability of a patient having pre-LT CRE. The proposed algorithm had a sensitivity of 66% and a specificity of 83% with a negative predictive value of 97%. CONCLUSIONS: We created a model able to predict CRE colonization at LT based on easy-to-obtain features that could guide antibiotic prophylaxis.

Assessing the impact of a doctor in remote areas of Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: The More Doctors Program (MDP) is an ongoing Brazilian policy that aims to improve healthcare by providing physicians to the most vulnerable municipalities. We aimed to measure the impact of MDP in mortality and infant mortality rate, the proportion of live births with low weight, prenatal appointments, childbirths at first and fifth min Apgar, public health investment and immunization in Brazil. METHODS: Municipal health indicators were collected before and after the intervention (2012 and 2015). Effects were measured by applying propensity score matching with difference-in-differences. RESULTS: Our findings show that infant mortality presented the highest improvement during the period (a decrease in 11 infant deaths per 1000 live births, p < 0.01). A significant effect, albeit smaller, was also found for the age-standardized total mortality (a decrease in five deaths per 10,000 residents), proportion of children with Apgar score lower than 8 in the fifth min and children with low birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: MDP contributed to improve important health indicators, highlighting the importance of a doctor in remote areas of Brazil.

Factors associated with age at natural menopause among elderly women in São Paulo, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze factors associated with age at natural menopause in elderly women who are part of the Health, Well-Being and Aging Study- which is a representative sample of elderly residents of the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis using data from a total of 1,415 women with natural menopause. We included 163 women with hysterectomy, oophorectomy, and estrogen therapy as censored data. RESULTS: The median age of natural menopause was 50 years. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards, smoking was associated with earlier age at natural menopause for the three cohorts (2000, 2006, and 2010). Current smokers had a 35% higher risk of earlier natural menopause (hazard ratio [HR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12, 1.62) and former smokers had a 27% higher risk of earlier natural menopause (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09, 1.50), in comparison with never-smokers. Women with 8 years or more of formal education had a 33% lower risk of earlier natural menopause (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50, 0.89) than women with no education, and women who were separated, widowed, or divorced had a 15% higher risk of earlier natural menopause (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00, 1.31) in comparison with married women. Marital status and parity were associated with later age at natural menopause only in 2006. CONCLUSIONS: We found significant associations of age at natural menopause with reproductive and lifestyle factors similar to some studies of women from developed countries.