Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon.

Ice-dependent winter survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon.

Changes in snow and ice conditions are some of the most distinctive impacts of global warming in cold temperate and Arctic regions, altering the environment during a critical period for survival for most animals. Laboratories studies have suggested that reduced ice cover may reduce the survival of stream dwelling fishes in Northern environments. This, however, has not been empirically investigated in natural populations in large rivers. Here, we examine how the winter survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon in a large natural river, the River Alta (Norway, 70°N), is affected by the presence or absence of surface ice. Apparent survival rates for size classes corresponding to parr and presmolts were estimated using capture-mark-recapture and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for an ice-covered and an ice-free site. Apparent survival (Φ) in the ice-covered site was greater than in the ice-free site, but did not depend on size class (0.64 for both parr and presmolt). In contrast, apparent survival in the ice-free site was lower for larger individuals (0.33) than smaller individuals (0.45). The over-winter decline in storage energy was greater for the ice-free site than the ice-covered site, suggesting that environmental conditions in the ice-free site caused a strong depletion in energy reserves likely affecting survival. Our findings highlight the importance of surface ice for the winter survival of juvenile fish, thus, underpinning that climate change, by reducing ice cover, may have a negative effect on the survival of fish adapted to ice-covered habitats during winter.

Spatial distribution correspondence of a juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar cohort from age 0+ to 1+ years.

The spatial distribution of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar young-of-the-year (0+) and 1 year old parr (1+) from the 2006 spawning cohort in a 5125 m reach of the River Skauga in central Norway was documented. A high degree of similarity was found between the distribution of 0+ and 1+ parr based on catches at 205 transects sampled in both years. Cross-correlations and partial cross-correlations (correcting for habitat variables) confirmed significant positive association between the two distributions on a small spatial scale (within 100 m) and a clear pattern of decreasing correlation with distance.

Pre-winter lipid stores in brown trout Salmo trutta along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients.

Pre-winter lipid stores of brown trout Salmo trutta L. parr were compared along altitudinal (0-920 m a.s.l.) and latitudinal (58-71° N) gradients. There were increases in lipid content (size adjusted to common lipid-free dry mass of 2·0 g, corresponding to fresh mass of 10 g) with both increasing altitude and latitude. Mean size-adjusted lipid content for S. trutta in high altitude rivers was 60% higher than at low altitude (0·29 and 0·18 g, respectively). Mean size-adjusted lipid content for S. trutta in northern rivers was 30% higher compared to that in southern rivers (0·30 and 0·23 g, respectively). There was a marked between-river variation in mean lipid storage, probably reflecting different strategies or opportunities for the pre-winter acquisition of lipid both locally within rivers and between different populations. This study shows that temperature or winter length, not latitudinal covariates such as annual light regime, governs lipid storage patterns in juvenile salmonids.

Effects of discharge and local density on the growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

The study explored the combined effects of density, physical habitat and different discharge levels on the growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in artificial streams, by manipulating flow during both summer and winter conditions. Growth was high during all four summer trials and increased linearly with discharge and mean velocity. Differences in fish densities (fish m(-3)) due to differences in stream volume explained a similar proportion of the variation in mean growth among discharge treatments. Within streams, the fish aggregated in areas of larger sediment size, where shelters were probably abundant, while growth decreased with increasing densities. Fish appeared to favour the availability of shelter over maximization of growth. Mean growth was negative during all winter trials and did not vary among discharge treatments. These results suggest that increased fish densities are a major cause of reduced summer growth at low discharge, and that habitat-mediated density differences explain the majority of the growth variation across habitat conditions both during summer and winter.

Pre-winter lipid stores in young-of-year Atlantic salmon along a north-south gradient.

The pre-winter lipid stores of young-of-the-year (YOY, age 0 year) Atlantic salmon Salmo salar were analysed along a north-south gradient from c. 71 to 58 degrees N, with winter conditions ranging from >200 days of ice cover to no ice. The rivers sampled in Northern Norway represent some of the most northerly S. salar rivers. There was an increase in lipid content with increasing latitude, and mean lipid content (size adjusted to common mass) for YOY in northern rivers were almost three times higher: 0.035 g compared to 0.013 g in southern rivers. The relationship was not sensitive to variation in sampling time or variation in YOY body size. The lipid stores, however, varied markedly between rivers and also between neighbouring rivers, indicating different strategies or opportunities for pre-winter lipid storage both at latitudinal and local scales.