PrEP uptake and early persistence among adolescent girls and young women receiving services via community and hybrid community-clinic models in Namibia.

INTRODUCTION: Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) face barriers in accessing clinic-based HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) services and community-based models are a proposed alternative. Evidence from such models, however, is limited. We evaluated PrEP service coverage, uptake, and early persistence among AGYW receiving services through community and hybrid models in Namibia. METHODS: We analyzed routine data for AGYW aged 15-24 who initiated PrEP within HIV prevention programming. PrEP was delivered via three models: community-concierge (fully community-based services with individually-tailored refill locations), community-fixed (community-based initiation and refills delivered by community providers on a set schedule at fixed sites), and hybrid community-clinic (community-based initiation and referral to clinics for refills delivered by clinic providers). We examined proportions of AGYW engaged in services along a programmatic PrEP cascade, overall and by model, and assessed factors associated with PrEP uptake and early persistence (refill within 15-44 days after initiation) using multivariable generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Over 10-months, 7593 AGYW participated in HIV prevention programming. Of these, 7516 (99.0%) received PrEP education, 6105 (81.2%) received HIV testing services, 6035 (98.9%) tested HIV-negative, and 2225 (36.9%) initiated PrEP. Of the 2047 AGYW expected for PrEP refill during the study period, 254 (12.4%) persisted with PrEP one-month after initiation. Structural and behavioral HIV risk factors including early school dropout, food insecurity, inconsistent condom use, and transactional sex were associated with PrEP uptake. AGYW who delayed starting PrEP were 2.89 times more likely to persist (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.52-5.46) and those receiving services via the community-concierge model were 8.7 times (95% CI: 5.44-13.9) more likely to persist (compared to the hybrid model). CONCLUSION: Community-based models of PrEP service delivery to AGYW can achieve high PrEP education and HIV testing coverage and moderate PrEP uptake. AGYW-centered approaches to delivering PrEP refills can promote higher persistence.

Male partner age, viral load, and HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women: evidence from eight sub-Saharan African countries.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to elucidate the role of partnerships with older men in the HIV epidemic among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) aged 15-24 years in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Analysis of Population-based HIV Impact Assessments in Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. METHODS: We examined associations between reported partner age and recent HIV infection among AGYW, incorporating male population-level HIV characteristics by age-band. Recent HIV infection was defined using the LAg avidity assay algorithm. Viremia was defined as a viral load of more than 1000 copies/ml, regardless of serostatus. Logistic regression compared recent infection in AGYW with older male partners to those reporting younger partners. Dyadic analysis examined cohabitating male partner age, HIV status, and viremia to assess associations with AGYW infection. RESULTS: Among 17 813 AGYW, increasing partner age was associated with higher odds of recent infection, peaking for partners aged 35-44 (adjusted odds ratio = 8.94, 95% confidence interval: 2.63-30.37) compared with partners aged 15-24. Population-level viremia was highest in this male age-band. Dyadic analyses of 5432 partnerships confirmed the association between partner age-band and prevalent HIV infection (male spousal age 35-44-adjusted odds ratio = 3.82, 95% confidence interval: 2.17-6.75). Most new infections were in AGYW with partners aged 25-34, as most AGYW had partners in this age-band. CONCLUSION: These results provide evidence that men aged 25-34 drive most AGYW infections, but partners over 9 years older than AGYW in the 35-44 age-band confer greater risk. Population-level infectiousness and male age group should be incorporated into identifying high-risk typologies in AGYW.

Predicting Treatment Interruption Among People Living With HIV in Nigeria: Machine Learning Approach.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed HIV from a fatal illness to a chronic disease. Given the high rate of treatment interruptions, HIV programs use a range of approaches to support individuals in adhering to ART and in re-engaging those who interrupt treatment. These interventions can often be time-consuming and costly, and thus providing for all may not be sustainable. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to describe our experiences developing a machine learning (ML) model to predict interruption in treatment (IIT) at 30 days among people living with HIV newly enrolled on ART in Nigeria and our integration of the model into the routine information system. In addition, we collected health workers' perceptions and use of the model's outputs for case management. METHODS: Routine program data collected from January 2005 through February 2021 was used to train and test an ML model (boosting tree and Extreme Gradient Boosting) to predict future IIT. Data were randomly sampled using an 80/20 split into training and test data sets, respectively. Model performance was estimated using sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Variables considered to be highly associated with treatment interruption were preselected by a group of HIV prevention researchers, program experts, and biostatisticians for inclusion in the model. Individuals were defined as having IIT if they were provided a 30-day supply of antiretrovirals but did not return for a refill within 28 days of their scheduled follow-up visit date. Outputs from the ML model were shared weekly with health care workers at selected facilities. RESULTS: After data cleaning, complete data for 136,747 clients were used for the analysis. The percentage of IIT cases decreased from 58.6% (36,663/61,864) before 2017 to 14.2% (3690/28,046) from October 2019 through February 2021. Overall IIT was higher among clients who were sicker at enrollment. Other factors that were significantly associated with IIT included pregnancy and breastfeeding status and facility characteristics (location, service level, and service type). Several models were initially developed; the selected model had a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 88%, positive predictive value of 83%, and negative predictive value of 87%, and was successfully integrated into the national electronic medical records database. During field-testing, the majority of users reported that an IIT prediction tool could lead to proactive steps for preventing IIT and improving patient outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: High-performing ML models to identify patients with HIV at risk of IIT can be developed using routinely collected service delivery data and integrated into routine health management information systems. Machine learning can improve the targeting of interventions through differentiated models of care before patients interrupt treatment, resulting in increased cost-effectiveness and improved patient outcomes.

Bottlenecks and Solutions During Implementation of the DREAMS Program for Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Namibia.

BACKGROUND: We synthesize implementation bottlenecks experienced while implementing the DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored, and Safe) program, an HIV prevention intervention for adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), in Namibia from 2017 to 2019. Bottlenecks were organized into the following 4 AGYW program components. PROGRAM ACCESS: Enrollment was slowed by the time-intensive nature of screening and other baseline data collection requirements, delays in acquiring parental consent, and limited time for after-school activities. Solutions included obtaining advance consent and providing 1-stop service delivery and transportation assistance. HEALTH EDUCATION: We experienced difficulty identifying safe spaces for AGYW to meet. A lack of tailored curricula also impeded activities. Governments, stakeholders, and partners can plan ahead to help DREAMS identify appropriate safe spaces. Curricula should be identified and adapted before implementation. HEALTH SERVICES: Uneven availability of government-provided commodities (e.g., condoms, preexposure prophylaxis [PrEP], family planning products) and lack of AGYW-centered PrEP delivery approaches impacted services. Better forecasting of commodity needs and government commitment to supply chain strengthening will help ensure adequate program stock. SOCIAL SERVICES: The availability of only centralized care following gender-based violence (GBV) and the limited number of government social workers to manage GBV cases constrained service provision. Triaging GBV cases-i.e., referring high-risk cases to government social workers and providing DREAMS-specific social services for other cases-can ensure proper caseload management. CONCLUSION: These bottlenecks highlight practical implementation issues and higher-level considerations for AGYW-centered HIV prevention programs. The critical need for multilayered programming for HIV/GBV prevention in AGYW cannot be addressed simply with additional funds but requires multilevel collaboration and forecasting. The urgency to achieve results must be balanced with the need for adequate implementation preparedness.

Updating the assumptions on the impact of household water, sanitation and hygiene interventions on diarrhea morbidity in young children.

Background: The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a publicly available and widely used model used to estimate the impact of scaling up interventions on maternal and child health. A strength of the model is that it is continuously updated with country-specific information about intervention coverage, risk factors and causes of death. This paper reports an updated review and meta-analysis on the efficacy of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions in reducing diarrhea morbidity among children under the age of five years. Methods: We updated previous LiST systematic reviews for improved WASH interventions according to standard LiST criteria. We sought to identify more recent WASH studies to update LiST efficacy estimates for each WASH intervention on diarrhea morbidity. In addition, we conducted a search to identify studies that reported an effect size for combined improved WASH interventions. For interventions where we found new studies, we conducted a weighted meta-analysis to produce an updated effect size estimate. Results: We did not find new studies demonstrating an effect of improved water source alone on diarrhea morbidity among children under 5 years of age. For improved sanitation, we conducted an updated meta-analysis among 4 studies and found no difference between intervention and control arms (weighted mean difference (WMD) = -5% (95% confidence interval (CI) = -11% to 2%). We identified four trials that assessed the effect of combined interventions targeting improved water, sanitation and hygiene. The weighted mean difference also showed no effect on diarrhea morbidity among children under 5 years of age (WMD = -6%, 95% CI = -15% to 4%). Our updated results for handwashing promotion estimate the effects to results in a 17% reduction in childhood diarrhea morbidity (95% CI = 7% to 27%). Conclusions: Despite widespread acceptance that WASH interventions can improve diarrhea morbidity, the evidence supporting this specifically for children under 5 years of age remains weak. Children interact with the environment in ways that differ from adults and these constant exposures may limit the effect that these WASH interventions can have on diarrhea morbidity.

National-level effectiveness of ART to prevent early mother to child transmission of HIV in Namibia.

BACKGROUND: Namibia introduced the prevention of mother to child HIV transmission (MTCT) program in 2002 and lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant women (option B-plus) in 2013. We sought to quantify MTCT measured at 4-12 weeks post-delivery. METHODS: During Aug 2014-Feb 2015, we recruited a nationally representative sample of 1040 pairs of mother and infant aged 4-12 weeks at routine immunizations in 60 public health clinics using two stage sampling approach. Of these, 864 HIV exposed infants had DNA-PCR HIV test results available. We defined an HIV exposed infant if born to an HIV-positive mother with documented status or diagnosed at enrollment using rapid HIV tests. Dried Blood Spots samples from HIV exposed infants were tested for HIV. Interview data and laboratory results were collected on smartphones and uploaded to a central database. We measured MTCT prevalence at 4-12 weeks post-delivery and evaluated associations between infant HIV infection and maternal and infant characteristics including maternal treatment and infant prophylaxis. All statistical analyses accounted for the survey design. RESULTS: Based on the 864 HIV exposed infants with test results available, nationally weighted early MTCT measured at 4-12 weeks post-delivery was 1.74% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00%-3.01%). Overall, 62% of mothers started ART pre-conception, 33.6% during pregnancy, 1.2% post-delivery and 3.2% never received ART. Mothers who started ART before pregnancy and during pregnancy had low MTCT prevalence, 0.78% (95% CI: 0.31%-1.96%) and 0.98% (95% CI: 0.33%-2.91%), respectively. MTCT rose to 4.13% (95% CI: 0.54%-25.68%) when the mother started ART after delivery and to 11.62% (95% CI: 4.07%-28.96%) when she never received ART. The lowest MTCT of 0.76% (95% CI: 0.36% - 1.61%) was achieved when mother received ART and ARV prophylaxis within 72hrs for infant and highest 22.32% (95%CI: 2.78% -74.25%) when neither mother nor infant received ARVs. After adjusting for mother's age, maternal ART (Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.03-0.29) and infant ARV prophylaxis (PR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.10-0.998) remained strong predictors of HIV transmission. CONCLUSION: As of 2015, Namibia achieved MTCT of 1.74%, measured at 4-12 weeks post-delivery. Women already on ART pre-conception had the lowest prevalence of MTCT emphasizing the importance of early HIV diagnosis and treatment initiation before pregnancy. Studies are needed to measure MTCT and maternal HIV seroconversion during breastfeeding.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the diarrhea alleviation through zinc and oral rehydration therapy (DAZT) program in rural Gujarat India: an application of the net-benefit regression framework.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the DAZT program for scaling up treatment of acute child diarrhea in Gujarat India using a net-benefit regression framework. METHODS: Costs were calculated from societal and caregivers' perspectives and effectiveness was assessed in terms of coverage of zinc and both zinc and Oral Rehydration Salt. Regression models were tested in simple linear regression, with a specified set of covariates, and with a specified set of covariates and interaction terms using linear regression with endogenous treatment effects was used as the reference case. RESULTS: The DAZT program was cost-effective with over 95% certainty above $5.50 and $7.50 per appropriately treated child in the unadjusted and adjusted models respectively, with specifications including interaction terms being cost-effective with 85-97% certainty. DISCUSSION: Findings from this study should be combined with other evidence when considering decisions to scale up programs such as the DAZT program to promote the use of ORS and zinc to treat child diarrhea.

Economic costs to caregivers of diarrhoea treatment among children below 5 in rural Gujarat India: findings from an external evaluation of the DAZT programme.

INTRODUCTION: Diarrhoea is a leading cause of mortality among young children in India although few receive the recommended treatment. The diarrhoea alleviation through zinc and oral rehydration salts (ORS) therapy (DAZT) team initiated a programme in Gujarat from 2011 to 2013 to increase coverage of these interventions through public and private providers at scale. This study evaluates the economic impact of diarrhoea to caregivers before and after the introduction of zinc and ORS at scale through the DAZT programme. METHODS: The DAZT programme evaluation took a before-and-after study design using a two-stage clustered cross-sectional survey. Factors associated with the odds of caregivers incurring economic costs and their amounts were evaluated in a two-part modelling approach. RESULTS: The DAZT programme lowered unadjusted economic costs to caregivers of treating a diarrhoeal episode from $4.04 to $2.49 in 2 years. Controlling for covariates, analysis showed no association between the programme and a change in odds of incurring an economic cost but did show an association with a reduction in economic cost of $2.15 (95% confidence interval (CI) $1.20-$3.11) per diarrhoea episode. A more than 4-fold increase in care-seeking from public community health workers, reduction in care-seeking from higher levels of the health system and reduced spending on drugs besides ORS and zinc may explain these results. DISCUSSION: This study found an association between zinc introduction and a reduction in economic burden of diarrhoea treatment to caregivers in underserved rural areas of Gujarat through more efficient patterns of care-seeking and content of care.

Zinc Deficiency in Childhood and Pregnancy: Evidence for Intervention Effects and Program Responses.

Zinc is a key micronutrient of particular importance during childhood and pregnancy. Zinc deficiency has been linked to increased infection and stunting among children and is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes and preterm delivery. Targeted interventions have the potential to alleviate the adverse effects of zinc deficiency via therapeutic and preventive supplementation, fortification and biofortification, but implementation is challenging. A growing number of low- and middle- income countries have introduced national policies for zinc treatment of diarrhea among children under 5 years in response to mounting evidence of reduced episode duration and severity as well as reduced incidence in the ensuing months, but coverage remains low in the absence of effective scale-up efforts. Implementation of preventive zinc supplementation in young children has also been slow, despite evidence linking routine daily supplementation and treatment regimens with reductions in stunting and the incidence of diarrhea and pneumonia. Acceptance of other zinc interventions, including traditional fortification, fortification with micronutrient powders and biofortification, is hindered by unclear evidence on efficacy. Additional research is therefore warranted to ascertain the efficacy of delivering zinc through fortified and biofortified foods and in combination with other micronutrients in supplements or powders. Operations research is also necessary to establish best practices for scale-up of therapeutic zinc supplementation for diarrhea.

Meta-Analysis With a Continuous Covariate That Is Differentially Categorized Across Studies.

We propose taking advantage of methodology for missing data to estimate relationships and adjust outcomes in a meta-analysis where a continuous covariate is differentially categorized across studies. The proposed method incorporates all available data in an implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm. We use simulations to demonstrate that the proposed method eliminates bias that would arise by ignoring a covariate and generalizes the meta-analytical approach for incorporating covariates that are not uniformly categorized. The proposed method is illustrated in an application for estimating diarrhea incidence in children aged ≤59 months.

Diarrhea no more: does zinc help the poor? Evidence on the effectiveness of programmatic efforts to reach poorest in delivering zinc and ORS at scale in UP and Gujarat, India.

BACKGROUND: India has the greatest burden of diarrhea in children under 5 years globally. The Diarrhea Alleviation through zinc and oral rehydration salts (ORS) Therapy program (2010-2014) sought to improve access to and utilization of zinc and ORS among children 2-59 months in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh (UP), India, through public and private sector delivery channels. In this analysis, we present findings on program's effect in reducing child-health inequities. METHODS: Data from cross-sectional baseline and endline surveys were used to assess disparities in key outcomes across six dimensions: socioeconomic strata, gender, caregiver education, ethnicity and geography. RESULTS: Careseeking outside the home for children under 5 years with diarrhea did not increase significantly in UP or Gujarat across socioeconomic strata. Declines in private sector careseeking were observed in both sites along with concurrent increases in public sector careseeking. Zinc, ORS, zinc+ORS use did not increase significantly in UP across socioeconomic strata. In Gujarat, increases in zinc use (20% overall; 33% in the Quintile 5 (Q5) strata) and zinc+ORS (18% overall; 30% in the Q5 strata) were disproportionately observed in the high income strata, among members of the most advantaged caste, and among children whose mothers had ≥1 year of schooling. ORS use increased significantly across all socioeconomic strata for children in Gujarat with diarrhea (23% overall; 33% in Q5 strata) and those with dehydration + diarrhea (33% overall; 38% in Q5 strata). The magnitude of increase in ORS receipt from the public sector was nearly twice that observed in the private sector. In Gujarat, while out of pocket spending for diarrhea was significantly higher for male children, overall costs to users declined by a mean of US$ 2; largely due to significant reductions in wages lost (-US$ 0.79; P < 0.003), and transportation costs (-US$ 0.44; P < 0.00). CONCLUSIONS: While significant improvements in diarrhea treatment were achieved in Gujarat, new strategies are needed in UP, particularly in the private sector. If national-level reductions in diarrheal disease burden are to be realized, improved understanding is needed of how to optimally increase coverage of zinc and ORS and decrease contraindicated treatments amongst the most disadvantaged across geographic areas and axes of gender, ethnicity, education and socioeconomic status.

World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 22 Foodborne Bacterial, Protozoal, and Viral Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Foodborne diseases are important worldwide, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. To our knowledge, we present the first global and regional estimates of the disease burden of the most important foodborne bacterial, protozoal, and viral diseases. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We synthesized data on the number of foodborne illnesses, sequelae, deaths, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), for all diseases with sufficient data to support global and regional estimates, by age and region. The data sources included varied by pathogen and included systematic reviews, cohort studies, surveillance studies and other burden of disease assessments. We sought relevant data circa 2010, and included sources from 1990-2012. The number of studies per pathogen ranged from as few as 5 studies for bacterial intoxications through to 494 studies for diarrheal pathogens. To estimate mortality for Mycobacterium bovis infections and morbidity and mortality for invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica infections, we excluded cases attributed to HIV infection. We excluded stillbirths in our estimates. We estimate that the 22 diseases included in our study resulted in two billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-2.9 billion) cases, over one million (95% UI 0.89-1.4 million) deaths, and 78.7 million (95% UI 65.0-97.7 million) DALYs in 2010. To estimate the burden due to contaminated food, we then applied proportions of infections that were estimated to be foodborne from a global expert elicitation. Waterborne transmission of disease was not included. We estimate that 29% (95% UI 23-36%) of cases caused by diseases in our study, or 582 million (95% UI 401-922 million), were transmitted by contaminated food, resulting in 25.2 million (95% UI 17.5-37.0 million) DALYs. Norovirus was the leading cause of foodborne illness causing 125 million (95% UI 70-251 million) cases, while Campylobacter spp. caused 96 million (95% UI 52-177 million) foodborne illnesses. Of all foodborne diseases, diarrheal and invasive infections due to non-typhoidal S. enterica infections resulted in the highest burden, causing 4.07 million (95% UI 2.49-6.27 million) DALYs. Regionally, DALYs per 100,000 population were highest in the African region followed by the South East Asian region. Considerable burden of foodborne disease is borne by children less than five years of age. Major limitations of our study include data gaps, particularly in middle- and high-mortality countries, and uncertainty around the proportion of diseases that were foodborne. CONCLUSIONS: Foodborne diseases result in a large disease burden, particularly in children. Although it is known that diarrheal diseases are a major burden in children, we have demonstrated for the first time the importance of contaminated food as a cause. There is a need to focus food safety interventions on preventing foodborne diseases, particularly in low- and middle-income settings.

Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the global and regional incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases caused by nine pathogens that are commonly transmitted through foods. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We abstracted data from systematic reviews and, depending on the overall mortality rates of the country, applied either a national incidence estimate approach or a modified Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) approach to estimate the aetiology-specific incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases, by age and region. The nine diarrhoeal diseases assessed caused an estimated 1.8 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.1-3.3 billion) cases and 599,000 (95% UI 472,000-802,000) deaths worldwide in 2010. The largest number of cases were caused by norovirus (677 million; 95% UI 468-1,153 million), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) (233 million; 95% UI 154-380 million), Shigella spp. (188 million; 95% UI 94-379 million) and Giardia lamblia (179 million; 95% UI 125-263); the largest number of deaths were caused by norovirus (213,515; 95% UI 171,783-266,561), enteropathogenic E. coli (121,455; 95% UI 103,657-143,348), ETEC (73,041; 95% UI 55,474-96,984) and Shigella (64,993; 95% UI 48,966-92,357). There were marked regional differences in incidence and mortality for these nine diseases. Nearly 40% of cases and 43% of deaths caused by these nine diarrhoeal diseases occurred in children under five years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens are responsible for a large disease burden, particularly in children. These aetiology-specific burden estimates can inform efforts to reduce diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens commonly transmitted through foods.

Estimating the herd immunity effect of rotavirus vaccine.

INTRODUCTION: Diarrhea is one of the leading causes of death in children under 5, and an estimated 39% of these deaths are attributable to rotavirus. Currently two live, oral rotavirus vaccines have been introduced on the market; however, the herd immunity effect associated with rotavirus vaccine has not yet been quantified. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to estimate the herd immunity effects associated with rotavirus vaccines. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review of articles published between 2008 and 2014 that measured the impact of rotavirus vaccine on severe gastroenteritis (GE) morbidity or mortality. We assessed the quality of published studies using a standard protocol and conducted meta-analyses to estimate the herd immunity effect in children less than one year of age across all years presented in the studies. We conducted these analyses separately for studies reporting a rotavirus-specific GE outcome and those reporting an all-cause GE outcome. RESULTS: In studies reporting a rotavirus-specific GE outcome, four of five of which were conducted in the United States, the median herd effect across all study years was 22% [19-25%]. In studies reporting an all-cause GE outcome, all of which were conducted in Latin America, the median herd effect was 24.9% [11-30%]. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that rotavirus vaccination confers a herd immunity effect in children under one year of age in the United States and Latin American countries. Given the high variability in vaccine efficacy across regions, more studies are needed to better examine herd immunity effects in high mortality regions.

The Influence of Episode Severity on Caregiver Recall, Care-seeking, and Treatment of Diarrhea Among Children 2-59 Months of Age in Bihar, Gujarat, and Uttar Pradesh, India.

Increased diarrheal episode severity has been linked to better 2-week recall and improved care-seeking and treatment among caregivers of children under five. Using cross-sectional data from three Indian states, we sought to assess the relationship between episode severity and the recall, care-seeking, and treatment of childhood diarrhea. Recall error was higher for episodes with onset 8-14 days (31.2%) versus 1-7 days (4.8%) before the survey, and logistic regression analysis showed a trend toward increased severity of less recent compared with more recent episodes. This finding indicates that data collection with 2-week recall underestimates diarrhea prevalence while overestimating the proportion of severe episodes. There was a strong correlation between care-seeking and dehydration, fever, vomiting, and increased stool frequency and duration. Treatment with oral rehydration salts was associated with dehydration, vomiting, and higher stool frequency, and trends were established between therapeutic zinc supplementation and increased duration and stool frequency. However, state and care-seeking sector were stronger determinants of treatment than episode severity, illustrating the need to address disparities in treatment quality across regions and delivery channels. Our findings are of importance to researchers and diarrhea management program evaluators aiming to produce accurate estimates of diarrheal outcomes and program impact in low- and middle-income countries.

The Association between Provider Practice and Knowledge of ORS and Zinc Supplementation for the Treatment of Childhood Diarrhea in Bihar, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, India: A Multi-Site Cross-Sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Programs aimed at reducing the burden of diarrhea among children under-five in low-resource settings typically allocate resources to training community-level health workers, but studies have suggested that provider knowledge does not necessarily translate into adequate practice. A diarrhea management program implemented in Bihar, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, India trained private sector rural medical practitioners (RMPs) and public sector Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) and Anganwadi workers (AWWs) in adequate treatment of childhood diarrhea with oral rehydration salts (ORS) and zinc. We used cross-sectional program evaluation data to determine the association between observed diarrhea treatment practices and reported knowledge of ORS and zinc among each provider cadre. METHODS: We conducted principal components analysis on providers' responses to diarrhea treatment questions in order to generate a novel scale assessing ORS/zinc knowledge. We subsequently regressed a binary indicator of whether ORS/zinc was prescribed during direct observation onto the resulting knowledge scores, controlling for other relevant knowledge predictors. RESULTS: There was a positive association between ORS/zinc knowledge score and prescribing ORS and zinc to young children with diarrhea among private sector RMPs (aOR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.29-4.17) and public sector ASHAs and AWWs (aOR 2.48; 95% CI: 1.90-3.24). Controlling for knowledge score, receipt of training in the preceding 6 months was a good predictor of adequate prescribing in the public but not the private sector. In the public sector, direct access to ORS and zinc supplies was also highly associated with prescribing. CONCLUSIONS: To enhance the management of childhood diarrhea in India, programmatic activities should center on increasing knowledge of ORS and zinc among public and private sector providers through biannual trainings but should also focus on ensuring sustained access to an adequate supply chain.

An instrument for the assessment of diarrhoeal severity based on a longitudinal community-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Diarrhoea is a significant contributer to morbidity and is among the leading causes of death of children living in poverty. As such, the incidence, duration and severity of diarrhoeal episodes in the household are often key variables of interest in a variety of community-based studies. However, there currently exists no means of defining diarrhoeal severity that are (A) specifically designed and adapted for community-based studies, (B) associated with poorer child outcomes and (C) agreed on by the majority of researchers. Clinical severity scores do exist and are used in healthcare settings, but these tend to focus on relatively moderate-to-severe dehydrating and dysenteric disease, require trained observation of the child and, given the variability of access and utilisation of healthcare, fail to sufficiently describe the spectrum of disease in the community setting. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: Santa Clara de Nanay, a rural community in the Northern Peruvian Amazon. PARTICIPANTS: 442 infants and children 0-72 months of age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in weight over 1-month intervals and change in length/height over 9-month intervals. RESULTS: Diarrhoeal episodes with symptoms of fever, anorexia, vomiting, greater number of liquid stools per day and greater number of total stools per day were associated with poorer weight gain compared with episodes without these symptoms. An instrument to measure the severity was constructed based on the duration of these symptoms over the course of a diarrhoeal episode. CONCLUSIONS: In order to address limitations of existing diarrhoeal severity scores in the context of community-based studies, we propose an instrument comprised of diarrhoea-associated symptoms easily measured by community health workers and based on the association of these symptoms with poorer child growth. This instrument can be used to test the impact of interventions on the burden of diarrhoeal disease.

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) as a model for diarrhea mortality reduction.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a model used to calculate deaths averted or lives saved by past interventions and for the purposes of program planning when costly and time consuming impact studies are not possible. DISCUSSION: LiST models the relationship between coverage of interventions and outputs, such as stunting, diarrhea incidence and diarrhea mortality. Each intervention directly prevents a proportion of diarrhea deaths such that the effect size of the intervention is multiplied by coverage to calculate lives saved. That is, the maximum effect size could be achieved at 100% coverage, but at 50% coverage only 50% of possible deaths are prevented. Diarrhea mortality is one of the most complex causes of death to be modeled. The complexity is driven by the combination of direct prevention and treatment interventions as well as interventions that operate indirectly via the reduction in risk factors, such as stunting and wasting. Published evidence is used to quantify the effect sizes for each direct and indirect relationship. Several studies have compared measured changes in mortality to LiST estimates of mortality change looking at different sets of interventions in different countries. While comparison work has generally found good agreement between the LiST estimates and measured mortality reduction, where data availability is weak, the model is less likely to produce accurate results. LiST can be used as a component of program evaluation, but should be coupled with more complete information on inputs, processes and outputs, not just outcomes and impact. SUMMARY: LiST is an effective tool for modeling diarrhea mortality and can be a useful alternative to large and expensive mortality impact studies. Predicting the impact of interventions or comparing the impact of more than one intervention without having to wait for the results of large and expensive mortality studies is critical to keep programs focused and results oriented for continued reductions in diarrhea and all-cause mortality among children under five years of age.