Pregnancy of unknown location: external validation of the hCG-based M6NP and M4 prediction models in an emergency gynaecology unit.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate if M6NP predicting ectopic pregnancy (EP) among women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) is valid in an emergency gynaecology setting and comparing it with its predecessor M4. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: University Hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Women with PUL. METHODS: All consecutive women with a PUL during a study period of 3 years were screened for inclusion. Risk prediction of an EP was based on two serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels taken at least 24 hours and no longer than 72 hours apart. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The area under the ROC curve (AUC) expressed the ability of a model to distinguish an EP from a non-EP (discrimination). Calibration assessed the agreement between the predicted risk of an EP and the true risk (proportion) of EP. The proportion of EPs and non-EPs classified as high risk assessed the model's sensitivity and false positive rate (FPR). The proportion of non-EPs among women classified as low risk was the model's negative predictive value (NPV). The clinical utility of a model was evaluated with decision curve analysis. RESULTS: 1061 women were included in the study, of which 238 (22%) had a final diagnosis of EP. The AUC for EP was 0.85 for M6NP and 0.81 for M4. M6NP made accurate risk predictions of EP up to predictions of 20% but thereafter risks were underestimated. M4 was poorly calibrated up to risk predictions of 40%. With a 5% threshold for high risk classification the sensitivity for EP was 95% for M6NP, the FPR 50% and NPV 97%. M6NP had higher sensitivity and NPV than M4 but also a higher FPR. M6NP had utility at all thresholds as opposed to M4 that had no utility at thresholds≤5%. CONCLUSIONS: M6NP had better predictive performance than M4 and is valid in women with PUL attending an emergency gynaecology unit. Our results can encourage implementation of M6NP in related yet untested clinical settings to effectively support clinical decision-making.

Early renal function post-liver transplantation is predictive of progressive chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVE: With improvements in long-term results after liver transplantation, chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become a highly relevant problem. The early measurement of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) can identify those patients who are at risk of developing CKD years after liver transplantation. The aims of this study were to describe the prevalence of CKD 5 years after liver transplantation, to study the correlation between measured GFR early after transplantation and late renal function and to identify patients at risk of developing late CKD after liver transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 152 patients who were at least 5 years post-liver transplantation were studied. Measured GFR with Chromium EDTA or iohexol clearance was followed-up for 5 years (n 52) and 10 years (n 41). RESULTS: The overall decrease in measured GFR was 36% after 5 years and 42% after 10 years. Eight patients (5%) required renal replacement therapy. GFR levels pretransplantation showed a poor correlation with later renal function (at 5 years). The GFR measured at 3 months and 1 year post-transplantation correlated well with measured GFR at 5 years post-transplantation. Multivariate analysis showed that measured GFR of less than 30 ml at 3 months post-transplantation was significantly associated with CKD at 5 years post-transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: GFR levels below 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 at 3 months post-liver transplantation are associated with the development of later CKD Stage 4-5 long after liver transplantation. The importance of this finding is the possibility of identifying at an early stage those individuals that may benefit from early implementation of calcineurin sparing or a withdrawal regimen with the goal of preserving long-term renal function.