Adjuvant statin therapy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma: the STAT-ROC feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Statins inhibit proliferative signalling in oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) and their use is associated with better survival in observational studies. The present study was undertaken to examine the feasibility of assessing adjuvant statin therapy in patients with operable OAC in a phase III RCT. METHODS: For this multicentre, double-blind, parallel-group, randomized, placebo-controlled feasibility trial, adults with OAC (including Siewert I-II lesions) who had undergone oesophagectomy were centrally allocated (1 : 1) to simvastatin 40 mg or matching placebo by block randomization, stratified by centre. Participants, clinicians and investigators were blinded to treatment allocation. Patients received treatment for up to 1 year. Feasibility outcomes were recruitment, retention, drug absorption, adherence, safety, quality of life, generalizability and survival. RESULTS: A total of 120 patients were assessed for eligibility at four centres, of whom 32 (26·7 per cent) were randomized, 16 in each group. Seven patients withdrew. Participants allocated to simvastatin had lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels by 3 months (adjusted mean difference -0·83 (95 per cent c.i. -1·4 to -0·22) mmol/l; P = 0·009). Median adherence to medication was greater than 90 per cent between 3 and 12 months' follow-up. Adverse events were similar between the groups. Quality-of-life data were complete for 98·3 per cent of questionnaire items. Cardiovascular disease, diabetes and aspirin use were more prevalent in the non-randomized group, whereas tumour site, stage and grade were similar between groups. Survival estimates were imprecise. CONCLUSION: This RCT supports the conduct and informs the design considerations for a future phase III trial of adjuvant statin therapy in patients with OAC. Registration number: ISRCTN98060456 (www.isrctn/com).

ANTECEDENTES: Las estatinas inhiben las señalizaciones proliferativas en el adenocarcinoma de esófago (oesophageal adenocarcinoma, OAC) y su uso se asocia con mejor supervivencia en estudios observacionales. El presente estudio se llevó a cabo para examinar la viabilidad de evaluar el tratamiento adyuvante con estatinas en pacientes con OAC operable en un ensayo aleatorizado y controlado de fase III. MÉTODOS: En este ensayo de viabilidad controlado por placebo, aleatorizado, de grupos paralelos, doble ciego y multicéntrico, los pacientes adultos con OAC (incluyendo lesiones Siewert I/II) que fueron sometidos a esofaguectomía se asignaron de forma centralizada (1:1) a tratamiento con simvastatina 40 mg o placebo equivalente mediante aleatorización en bloques, estratificados por centro. Los participantes, los clínicos y los investigadores desconocían la asignación del tratamiento. Los pacientes recibieron el tratamiento hasta un año. Los resultados de viabilidad fueron reclutamiento, retención, absorción del fármaco, adherencia, seguridad, calidad de vida, generalización, y supervivencia. RESULTADOS: Un total de 120 pacientes fueron evaluados para elegibilidad en 4 centros, de los cuales 32 (26,7%) fueron aleatorizados, 16 en cada grupo. Siete pacientes abandonaron el ensayo. Los pacientes asignados a tratamiento con simvastatina tenían niveles de colesterol LDL más bajos a los 3 meses (diferencia media ajustada, −0,83 mmol/L, i.c. del 95% −1,4 a −0,22, P = 0,009). La mediana de la adherencia a la medicación fue mayor del 90% entre los 3-12 meses de seguimiento. Los eventos adversos fueron similares entre los grupos. Los datos de calidad de vida estaban completos en el 98,3% de las preguntas del cuestionario. Enfermedad cardiovascular, diabetes y uso de aspirina eran más prevalentes en el grupo no aleatorizado, mientras que la localización del tumor, el estadio y el grado fueron similares entre los grupos. Las estimaciones de supervivencia fueron imprecisas. CONCLUSIÓN: Este RCT apoya la realización e informa de las consideraciones de diseño para un futuro ensayo de fase III de tratamiento adyuvante con estatinas en pacientes con OAC.

Five-minute heart rate variability can predict obstructive angiographic coronary disease.

OBJECTIVE: Obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) is evident in only half of patients referred for diagnostic angiography. Five-minute heart rate variability (HRV) is a non-invasive marker for autonomic control of the vasculature, which this study hypothesised could risk-stratify cardiac patients and reduce unnecessary angiograms. DESIGN: A prospective observational study (the Alternative Risk Markers in Coronary Artery Disease (ARM-CAD) study). SETTING: Three cardiac centres in Melbourne, Australia. PATIENTS: 470 consecutive patients undergoing elective angiography (with predominantly normal cardiac rhythm), regardless of co-morbidity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The presence of obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis) on angiography. RESULTS: Patients with obstructive CAD had significantly reduced HRV, particularly in the low frequency (LF) range (median 180 vs 267 ms(2) without CAD; p<0.001). There was a linear trend with the severity of CAD; median LF power (IQR) in patients with normal coronaries was 275 (612), with minor coronary irregularities 255 (400), single-vessel CAD 212 (396) and more severe disease 170 (327) ms(2); p value for trend 0.003. There was a similar reduction in LF power regardless of the anatomical location of coronary stenoses. Comparing patients with LF less than 250 and 250 ms(2) or greater, the adjusted OR for obstructive CAD using multivariate regression was 2.42, 95% CI 1.33 to 4.38 (p=0.004). No interactions were noted in subgroup analysis and HRV added to risk prediction irrespective of the baseline Framingham risk (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Low HRV is strongly predictive of angiographic coronary disease regardless of other co-morbidities and is clinically useful as a risk predictor in patients with sinus rhythm. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00403351 www.armcad.com.

Prevalence and predictors of persistent health status impairment in patients referred to a vascular clinic with intermittent claudication.

BACKGROUND: The goal of treatment for lower extremity peripheral artery disease is often to improve health status. Factors associated with failure to improve are unknown. METHODS: Health status was assessed with the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire (PAQ) at baseline and 2 years in 344 patients referred to vascular clinics. Improvement was defined as an increase of ≥5 points on the PAQ Summary Score. Multivariable logistic regression identified patient and treatment characteristics associated with impaired baseline health status, and predictors of no improvement (<5 points). RESULTS: Older age, bilateral symptoms, female sex and prior revascularization were associated with impaired baseline health status. At 2 years 36% reported unimproved health status. Factors associated with no improvement were older age (Odds Ratio 1.67/decade, CI 1.28, 2.19), better baseline health status (OR 1.40/10-points, CI 1.24, 1.59), beta blocker use (OR 2.53, CI 1.37, 4.68), prior stroke (OR 4.12, CI 1.33, 12.77) and bilateral claudication (OR 1.79, CI 1.07, 2.99). SUMMARY: Older patients, women, and those with bilateral symptoms or prior revascularization have worse health status at vascular referral. Over 1/3 of patients' health status did not improve over 2 years; older patients and those with bilateral or milder symptoms, prior stroke or using beta blockers were less likely to improve.

Can protein biomarkers provide an index of coronary artery calcification in patients with Type 2 diabetes?

OBJECTIVES: By exploring differences between patients with high and low coronary artery calcification score (CACS), a plasma protein biomarker might be identified as an alternative to CACS screening. METHODS: We selected stored samples (12 per group) from a cohort study of patients with Type 2 diabetes and CACS >1000 or <100 Agatston units, with matching for age, BMI, blood pressure, lipids and lipoproteins and fibrinogen. Multiplex, immunobead-based assay or ELISA measured 18 cardiovascular-related protein biomarkers. SELDI-TOF mass spectrometry (MS) screened for proteins differing significantly between high and low CACS. RESULTS: Only monocyte chemotactic protein-1 was higher in the high compared with the low CACS group but concentrations overlapped appreciably. On SELDI-TOF MS, several mass/charge ratio peak intensities significantly discriminated high and low CACS but these differences were not confirmed in larger samples from the cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma protein biomarkers are unlikely to provide an effective alternative to measurement of CACS.

Preoperative 6-minute walk test adds prognostic information to Euroscore in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement.

AIMS: The authors investigated the additive prognostic value of the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) to Euroscore in patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) METHODS AND RESULTS: 208 patients with severe AS underwent the 6MWT before AVR, as part of a randomised trial (ASSERT) comparing stented and stentless aortic valves. Clinical follow-up was available for 200 patients up to 12 months. The rate of death, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke (time to first event) was 13% (n = 14) in patients walking <300 metres compared to 4% (n = 4) in those who walked > or =300 metres (p = 0.017). When rate of death, MI or stroke by Euroscore risk was stratified by 6-minute walking distance, the 6MWT added prognostic information. In a Cox regression analysis 6MWT distance was the only variable retained as an independent predictor of the composite outcome of death, MI or stroke at 12 months (HR 0.28 95% CI 0.09 to 0.85, p = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: The 6MWT is safe and feasible to carry out in patients with severe aortic stenosis before AVR, and provides potentially important functional and prognostic information to clinical assessment and the Euroscore risk score.

Sex-related differences in the presentation, treatment and outcomes among patients with acute coronary syndromes: the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether sex differences exist in the angiographic severity, management and outcomes of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS: The study comprised 7638 women and 19 117 men with ACS who underwent coronary angiography and were included in GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) from 1999-2006. Normal vessels/mild disease was defined as <50% stenosis in all epicardial vessels; advanced disease was defined as >or=one vessel with >or=50% stenosis. RESULTS: Women were older than men and had higher rates of cardiovascular risk factors. Men and women presented equally with chest pain; however, jaw pain and nausea were more frequent among women. Women were more likely to have normal/mild disease (12% vs 6%, p<0.001) and less likely to have left-main and three-vessel disease (27% vs 32%, p<0.001) or undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (65% vs 68%, p<0.001). Women and men with normal and mild disease were treated less aggressively than those with advanced disease. Women with advanced disease had a higher risk of death (4% vs 3%, p<0.01). After adjustment for age and extent of disease, women were more likely to have adverse outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalisation) at six months compared to men (odds ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.34); however, sex differences in mortality were no longer statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Women with ACS were more likely to have cardiovascular disease risk factors and atypical symptoms such as nausea compared with men, but were more likely to have normal/mild angiographic coronary artery disease. Further study regarding sex differences related to disease severity is warranted.

Characteristics and treatments of patients with peripheral arterial disease referred to UK vascular clinics: results of a prospective registry.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is often associated with risk factors including cigarette smoking, hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia, and patients have a high risk of future vascular events. Good medical management results in improved outcomes and quality of life, but previous studies have documented sub-optimal treatment of risk factors. We assessed the management of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with PAD referred to specialist vascular clinics. METHODS: This was a prospective, protocol driven registry carried out in UK vascular clinics. Patients who were first-time referrals for evaluation of PAD were eligible if they had claudication plus ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI) < or = 0.9. Statistical associations between key demographic and treatment variables were explored using a chi-squared test. RESULTS: We enrolled 473 patients from 23 sites. Mean age was 68 years (SD 10) and 66% were male. Mean estimated claudication distance was 100 m, and ABPI was 0.74. Mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 155 mmHg, and 42% had a SBP >160 mmHg. Forty percent were current smokers and half had tried to give up in the prior 6 months, but there was no evidence of a systematic method of smoking cessation. Mean total cholesterol was 5.4 (SD1.2) mmol/l and 30% had levels >6 mmol/l. Antiplatelet therapy had been given to 70% and statins to 44%. Prior CHD was present in 29% and these patients had significantly higher use of antiplatelet therapy, statins and ACE-inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of attempts to raise awareness about PAD as an important marker of cardiovascular risk, patients are still poorly treated prior to referral to a vascular clinic. In particular, the use of evidence-based treatments is sub-optimal, while hypertension and cigarette smoking are poorly managed. More work needs to be done to educate health professionals about the detection and optimal medical management of PAD.

Coronary calcification, homocysteine, C-reactive protein and the metabolic syndrome in Type 2 diabetes: the Prospective Evaluation of Diabetic Ischaemic Heart Disease by Coronary Tomography (PREDICT) Study.

AIMS: The PREDICT Study aims to determine: (i) the association between cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery calcification score (CACS) obtained by electron beam tomography and (ii) the predictive value of CACS for coronary heart disease (CHD) events in Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Having previously reported relationships between CACS and conventional risk factors, we have now studied the novel risk factors, plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) and homocysteine, insulin resistance, serum apoprotein A1 and B concentrations, the serum triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and metabolic syndrome (International Diabetes Federation definition) in 573 subjects of the PREDICT Type 2 diabetes cohort. RESULTS: In univariate analyses, the only significant positive novel correlate of CACS was homocysteine (P = 0.0004). CRP was increased in those with detectable calcification, but decreased with increasing calcification score (P = 0.006). In a multivariate model that included all significant univariate correlates, CACS was independently associated with age (P < 0.0001), waist-hip ratio (P < 0.02), male gender (P < 0.05) and duration of diabetes (P < 0.05), but the association with homocysteine was no longer significant. The negative association between CACS and CRP remained in multivariate analysis, and was independent of statin use. CONCLUSIONS: Age was the major factor influencing CACS in Type 2 diabetes, with weaker contributions from waist hip-ratio and duration of diabetes. Other novel cardiovascular risk factors appear to have little positive effect.

Admission ECG predicts long-term outcome in acute coronary syndromes without ST elevation.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) without ST elevation are a frequent cause of hospital admission, myocardial infarction and death. AIM: To explore the role of the ECG in stratifying ACS patients. DESIGN: Prospective, centrally-coordinated multicentre registry involving 56 centres throughout the UK. METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted with ACS without ST elevation on the presenting ECG (n = 1046) were followed for 6 months. A subgroup (n = 653) were flagged with the UK Office for National Statistics and followed-up for death over 4 years. RESULTS: Mean follow-up for the group as a whole was 2.4 years. In the first 6 months, the death rate was 7.3%. Survival at 1 year was 90.8% (95%CI 88.2%-92.8%); at 45 months it was 77.8% (95%CI 74.1%-81.1%). We compared data in those with ST depression or bundle branch block on the admission ECG (n = 304, 29%) with those with T wave inversion, Q waves and minor ST segment changes (n = 576, 55%) and those with a normal ECG (n = 166, 16%). Their respective incidences of death were 15%, 5% and 2% (p < 0.01) at 6 months, and 38%, 22% and 7% (p < 0.01) at 4 years. DISCUSSION: Rates of adverse events are high in patients admitted to UK hospitals with ACS without ST elevation. The ECG remains a very important and simple discriminator of both short- and long-term risk, enabling more aggressive, proven therapies to be targeted towards those at highest risk.

Rationale and design of ACTIVE: the atrial fibrillation clopidogrel trial with irbesartan for prevention of vascular events.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequently occurring cardiac arrhythmia with often serious clinical consequences. Many patients have contraindications to anticoagulation, and it is often underused in clinical practice. The addition of clopidogrel to aspirin (ASA) has been shown to reduce vascular events in a number of high-risk populations. Irbesartan is an angiotensin receptor-blocking agent that reduces blood pressure and has other vascular protective effects. METHODS AND RESULTS: ACTIVE W is a noninferiority trial of clopidogrel plus ASA versus oral anticoagulation in patients with AF and at least 1 risk factor for stroke. ACTIVE A is a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of clopidogrel in patients with AF and with at least 1 risk factor for stroke who receive ASA because they have a contraindication for oral anticoagulation or because they are unwilling to take an oral anticoagulant. ACTIVE I is a partial factorial, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of irbesartan in patients participating in ACTIVE A or ACTIVE W. The primary outcomes of these studies are composites of vascular events. A total of 14000 patients will be enrolled in these trials. CONCLUSIONS: ACTIVE is the largest trial yet conducted in AF. Its results will lead to a new understanding of the role of combined antiplatelet therapy and the role of blood pressure lowering with an angiotensin II receptor blocker in patients with AF.

Long term prognosis of heart failure after acute coronary syndromes without ST elevation.

BACKGROUND: Information about long term outcomes of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) who have clinically diagnosed heart failure is scarce. METHODS: In a UK registry, this study evaluated patients with non-ST elevation ACS, recording treatment, and clinical outcomes for six months. In a subgroup, a four year mortality follow up was performed to estimate the impact of the clinical diagnosis of heart failure on survival. RESULTS: Of 1046 patients, 139 (13%) had a history of clinically diagnosed heart failure. At discharge, ACE inhibitors were prescribed for 58% and 28%, of those with and without a history of heart failure respectively (p<0.001). Rates of angiography, percutaneous intervention, and coronary artery bypass graft were 17.3% and 29.2% (p = 0.003), 5.0% and 8.4% (p = 0.17), and 5.0% and 7.5% (p = 0.3) for these groups respectively. Death or new myocardial infarction at six months occurred in 22% and 10% (p<0.001) and at four years death occurred in 60% and 20% of these groups respectively (p<0.001). In a multivariate analysis prior heart failure carried an odds ratio of 2.0 (p = 0.001) for death or myocardial infarction at six months and 2.4 (p<0.001) for death over four years. New heart failure was associated with an increased risk of death at six months (20% compared with 5%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: A clinical history of heart failure carries a substantial risk of death in patients admitted with ACS without ST elevation. Nearly 60% of those with prior heart failure are dead after four years. After adjustment for confounding factors, prior heart failure more than doubles the risk compared with those with no history.

Diuretics for heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure is a major cause of morbidity and mortality world-wide. Diuretics are regarded as the first-line treatment for patients with congestive heart failure since they provide symptomatic relief. The effects of diuretics on disease progression and survival remain unclear. OBJECTIVES: To assess the harms and benefits of diuretics for chronic heart failure SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (Issue 2 2004), MEDLINE 1966-2004, EMBASE 1980-2004 and HERDIN database. We hand searched pertinent journals and reference lists of papers were inspected. We also contacted manufacturers and researchers in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Only double-blinded randomised controlled trials of diuretic therapy comparing one diuretic with placebo, or one diuretic with another active agent (e.g. ACE inhibitors, digoxin) in patients with chronic heart failure were eligible for inclusion. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers independently abstracted the data and assessed the eligibility and methodological quality of each trial. Extracted data were entered into the Review Manager 4.2 computer software, and analysed by determining the odds ratio for dichotomous data, and difference in means for continuous data, of the treated group compared with controls. The likelihood of heterogeneity of the study population was assessed by the Chi-square test. If there was no evidence of statistical heterogeneity and pooling of results was clinically appropriate, a combined estimate was obtained using the fixed-effects model. MAIN RESULTS: We included 14 trials (525 participants), 7 were placebo-controlled, and 7 compared diuretics against other agents such as ACE inhibitors or digoxin. We analysed the data for mortality and for worsening heart failure. Mortality data were available in 3 of the placebo-controlled trials (202 participants). Mortality was lower for participants treated with diuretics than for placebo, odds ratio (OR) for death 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07 to 0.83; P = 0.02. Admission for worsening heart failure was reduced in those taking diuretics in two trials (169 participants), OR 0.07 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.52; P = 0.01). In four trials comparing diuretics to active control (91 participants), diuretics improved exercise capacity in participants with CHF, difference in means WMD 0.72 , 95% CI 0.40 to 1.04; P < 0.0001. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The available data from several small trials show that in patients with chronic heart failure, conventional diuretics appear to reduce the risk of death and worsening heart failure compared to placebo. Compared to active control, diuretics appear to improve exercise capacity.

A cost-utility analysis of clopidogrel in patients with non-ST-segment-elevation acute coronary syndromes in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long-term cost effectiveness of 1 year's treatment with clopidogrel on top of standard therapy (including aspirin; ASA) compared with standard therapy alone, in patients diagnosed with non-ST-segment-elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in the UK. DESIGN: Cost utility analysis using a Markov model, incorporating clinical data from CURE (a multicentre randomised controlled trial, involving 12,562 patients) and data from UK observational studies. SETTING: Health economic evaluation carried out from the perspective of the UK NHS. PATIENTS: A representative cohort of 1000 UK patients aged 66 years, diagnosed with non-ST-segment-elevation ACS. INTERVENTIONS: Either a combination of 75 mg/day clopidogrel (300 mg loading dose, within 24 h prior to hospital admission) and standard therapy (including ASA, 75-325 mg/day) for 1 year followed by standard therapy alone for their remaining lifetime, or standard therapy alone (including ASA, 75-325 mg/day) for life. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost per life-year gained and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In the base case, the incremental cost effectiveness of the clopidogrel combination vs standard therapy alone is estimated as pounds 6991 per life-year gained and pounds 7365 per QALY gained. The probability that clopidogrel remains cost effective within the generally accepted pounds 30,000 per QALY threshold is more than 80%. The confidence interval around the relative risk for vascular death was identified as the main parameter affecting the estimated cost effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: One year's treatment with clopidogrel is a cost effective intervention compared with standard therapy that should be considered as a routine treatment for patients with non-ST-segment-elevation ACS.

Pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum: predictors of early and medium-term outcome in a population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum is a form of congenital heart disease usually associated with right-heart hypoplasia, with considerable morphologic heterogeneity and often poor outlook. Ascertainment of risk factors for poor outcome is an important step if an improvement in outcome is to be achieved. METHODS: The UK and Ireland Collaborative study of Pulmonary Atresia with Intact Ventricular Septum is an ongoing population-based study of all patients born with this disease from 1991 through 1995. All available clinical, morphologic, and investigative variables were directly reviewed, and risk factor analysis was performed for poor outcome. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-three patients presented with pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum. Fifteen underwent no procedure, and all died. Of the remainder, 67 underwent a right ventricular outflow tract procedure (catheter or surgical), 18 underwent an outflow tract procedure with shunt, and 81 underwent a systemic-to-pulmonary shunt alone. One- and 5-year survival was 70.8% and 63.8%, respectively. Results from Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that low birth weight (P = .024), unipartite right ventricular morphology (P = .001), and the presence of a dilated right ventricle (P < .001) were independent risk factors for death. The presence of coronary artery fistulae, right ventricular dependence, or the tricuspid valvar z score did not prove to be risk factors for death. After up to 9 years of follow-up, 29% have achieved a biventricular repair, 3% a so-called one-and-a-half ventricular repair, and 10.5% a univentricular repair, with 16.5% still having a mixed circulation (41% died). CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study has shown which features at presentation place an infant in a high-risk group. This is important information for counseling in fetal life and for surgical strategy after birth.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the initial medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome: systematic review and decision-analytical modelling.

OBJECTIVES: To identify and prioritise key areas of clinical uncertainty regarding the medical management of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in current UK practice. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases. Consultations with clinical advisors. Postal survey of cardiologists. REVIEW METHODS: Potential areas of important uncertainty were identified and 'decision problems' prioritised. A systematic literature review was carried out using standard methods. The constructed decision model consisted of a short-term phase that applied the results of the systematic review and a long-term phase that included relevant information from a UK observational study to extrapolate estimated costs and effects. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to examine the dependence of the results on baseline parameters, using alternative data sources. Expected value of information analysis was undertaken to estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision problem. This provided an upper bound on the monetary value associated with additional research in the area. RESULTS: Seven current areas of clinical uncertainty (decision problems) in the drug treatment of unstable angina patients were identified. The agents concerned were clopidogrel, low molecular weight heparin, hirudin and intravenous glycoprotein antagonists (GPAs). Twelve published clinical guidelines for unstable angina or non-ST elevation ACS were identified, but few contained recommendations about the specified decision problems. The postal survey of clinicians showed that the greatest disagreement existed for the use of small molecule GPAs, and the greatest uncertainty existed for decisions relating to the use of abciximab (a large molecule GPA). Overall, decision problems concerning the GPA class of drugs were considered to be the highest priority for further study. Selected papers describing the clinical efficacy of treatment were divided into three groups, each representing an alternative strategy. The strategy involving the use of GPAs as part of the initial medical management of all non-ST elevation ACS was the optimal choice, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 5738 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with no use of GPAs. Stochastic analysis showed that if the health service is willing to pay 10,000 pounds per additional QALY, the probability of this strategy being cost-effective was around 82%, increasing to 95% at a threshold of 50,000 pounds per QALY. A sensitivity analysis including an additional strategy of using GPAs as part of initial medical management only in patients at particular high risk (as defined by age, ST depression or diabetes) showed that this additional strategy was yet more cost-effective, with an ICER of 3996 pounds per QALY compared with no treatment with GPA. Value of information analysis suggested that there was considerable merit in additional research to reduce the level of uncertainty in the optimal decision. At a threshold of 10,000 pounds per QALY, the maximum potential value of such research in the base case was calculated as 12.7 million pounds per annum for the UK as a whole. Taking account of the greater uncertainty in the sensitivity analyses including clopidogrel, this figure was increased to approximately 50 million pounds. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests the use of GPAs in all non-ST elevation ACS patients as part of their initial medical management. Sensitivity analysis showed that virtually all of the benefit could be realised by treating only high-risk patients. Further clarification of the optimum role of GPAs in the UK NHS depends on the availability of further high-quality observational and trial data. Value of information analysis derived from the model suggests that a relatively large investment in such research may be worthwhile. Further research should focus on the identification of the characteristics of patients who benefit most from GPAs as part of medical management, the comparison of GPAs with clopidogrel as an adjunct to standard care, follow-up cohort studies of the costs and outcomes of high-risk non-ST elevation ACS over several years, and exploring how clinicians' decisions combine a normative evidence-based decision model with their own personal behavioural perspective.

Diabetic patients with acute coronary syndromes in the UK: high risk and under treated. Results from the prospective registry of acute ischaemic syndromes in the UK (PRAIS-UK).

OBJECTIVES: Short-term randomised trials suggest that patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), admitted with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are at increased risk of subsequent adverse events. We tested whether this hypothesis was true for an unselected population of ACS patients with and without DM admitted with non-ST elevation MI or unstable angina, in a non-trial setting over a longer term of follow-up. METHODS: Prospective, centrally, coordinated multicenter registry involving 56 centers throughout the UK (half having angiographic facilities). Consecutive patients admitted with ACS without ST elevation on the presenting ECG were followed up to 6 months. A sub-group of patients were flagged with the UK Office for National Statistics and followed-up for death over 4 years. RESULTS: Data were collected on 1046 ACS patients of whom 170 (16%) had a prior diagnosis of DM. DM patients had higher baseline co-morbidities and unadjusted mortality rates at 6 months (11.8% vs. 6.4%, p=0.01). After correcting for clinical variables such as age, gender, smoking status and chest pain/ischaemic ECG changes on admission, prior history of any of myocardial infarction, heart failure, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia (on treatment), stroke or coronary revascularisation (PTCA or CABG), mortality rates for DM patients were no longer significantly raised (hazard ratio 1.35, 95% CI: 0.79-2.30; p=0.27 at 6 months and 1.15, 95% CI 0.72-1.83 at 4 years). 30% of diabetics were dead after 4 years of follow-up. Patients with DM were more likely to have been revascularised at 6 months and were more likely to receive ACE inhibitors. Based on the rate of recruitment and the population covered in the study, about 21,000 patients with DM will be admitted with non-ST elevation ACS each year in the UK. CONCLUSIONS: DM is common amongst patients admitted with ACS without ST elevation and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality: approximately 1 in 8 will not survive up to 6 months and 1 in 3 to 4 years. DM patients should be managed aggressively to reduce their risk of future complications.

Contemporary management of acute coronary syndromes: does the practice match the evidence? The global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE).

OBJECTIVE: To determine to what extent evidence based guidelines are followed in the management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in the UK, elsewhere in Europe, and multinationally, and what the outcomes are. DESIGN: Multinational, prospective, observational registry (GRACE, global registry of acute coronary events) with six months' follow up. SETTING: Patients presenting to a cluster of hospitals. The study was designed to collect data representative of the full spectrum of ACS in specific geographic populations. PATIENTS: Patients admitted with a working diagnosis of unstable angina or suspected myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death during hospitalisation and at six months' follow up (adjusted for baseline risks). RESULTS: In ST elevation MI, reperfusion was applied more often in the UK (71%) than in Europe (65%) and multinationally (59%) (p < 0.01). However, this was almost entirely by lytic treatment, in contrast with elsewhere (primary percutaneous coronary intervention 1%, 29%, 16%, respectively). Statins were applied more frequently in the UK for all classes of patients with ACS (p < 0.0001). In contrast there was lower use of revascularisation procedures in non-ST MI (20% v 37% v 28%, respectively) and glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonists (6% v 25% v 26%, respectively). In-hospital death rates, adjusted for baseline risk, were not significantly different but six month death rates were higher in the UK for ST elevation MI (7.2% UK, 4.3% Europe, 5.3% multinationally; p < 0.0001) and non-ST elevation MI (7.5%, 6.2%, and 6.7%, respectively; p = 0.012, UK v Europe). CONCLUSIONS: Current management of ACS in the UK more closely follows the recommendations of the National Service Framework than British or European guidelines. Differences in practice may account for the observed higher event rates in the UK after hospital discharge.

Life-style modification in peripheral arterial disease.

OBJECTIVE: To review the published evidence supporting the use of life-style modification in peripheral arterial disease (PAD). DESIGN: A systematic search of the medical literature was performed for relevant studies. MATERIALS: The publications obtained were then searched for randomised clinical trials which reported end-points of mortality or major cardiovascular event rates with various life-style modifications. RESULTS: Only one randomised controlled trial was found reporting relevant end-points. Other trials were of other end-points such as walking distance or biochemical markers. CONCLUSIONS: There is a lack of randomised controlled data proving the benefit of life-style modification in improving mortality and reducing cardiovascular events in patients with PAD. Despite this there is sufficient evidence to recommend some life-style modification as part of the overall approach to risk reduction in these patients. There is compelling evidence to support smoking cessation, increased exercise and improved diet.