Estimation of Causes of Death in Suburban Nepal Using Verbal Autopsy.

Background Nepal is in the midst of a disease transition, including a rapid increase of noncommunicable diseases. In order for health policy makers and planners to make informed programmatic and funding decisions, they need up to date and accurate data regarding cause of death throughout the country. Methods of improving cause of death reporting in Nepal are urgently required. Objective We sought to validate SmartVA-Analyze, an application which computer certifies verbal autopsies, to evaluate it as a method for collecting mortality data in Nepal. Method We conducted a medical record review of mortality cases at Dhulikhel Hospital, Kathmandu University Hospital. Cases with a verifiable underlying cause of death were used as gold standard reference cases. Verbal autopsies were conducted with caregivers of 48 gold standard cases. Result Of the 66 adult gold standard mortality cases reviewed, 76% were caused by cancer, cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, COPD or injury. When assessing concordance between cause of death from verbal autopsy vs. gold standards, we found an overall agreement (Kappa) of 0.50. Kappa based on broader ICD-10 categories was 0.69. Cause-Specific Mortality Fraction Accuracy was 0.625, and disease specific measures of concordance varied widely, with sensitivities ranging from 0-100%. Conclusion Ongoing, countrywide mortality data collection is crucial for evidence-based priority setting in Nepal. Though not valid for all causes, we found SmartVA-Analyze to provide useful general cause of death data, particularly in settings where death certification is unavailable.

Post-traumatic stress disorder and major depression in conflict-affected populations: an epidemiological model and predictor analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite significant research examining mental health in conflict-affected populations we do not yet have a comprehensive epidemiological model of how mental disorders are distributed, or which factors influence the epidemiology in these populations. We aim to derive prevalence estimates specific for region, age and sex of major depression, and PTSD in the general populations of areas exposed to conflict, whilst controlling for an extensive range of covariates. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted to identify epidemiological estimates of depression and PTSD in conflict-affected populations and potential predictors. We analyse data using Bayesian meta-regression techniques. RESULTS: We identified 83 studies and a list of 34 potential predictors. The age-standardised pooled prevalence of PTSD was 12.9% (95% UI 6.9-22.9), and major depression 7.6% (95% UI 5.1-10.9) - markedly lower than estimated in previous research but over two-times higher than the mean prevalence estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study [3.7% (95% UI 3.0-4.5) and 3.5% (95% UI 2.9-4.2) for anxiety disorders and MDD, respectively]. The age-patterns reveal sharp prevalence inclines in the childhood years. A number of ecological variables demonstrated associations with prevalence of both disorders. Symptom scales were shown to significantly overestimate prevalence of both disorders. Finding suggests higher prevalence of both disorders in females. CONCLUSION: This study provides, for the first time, age-specific estimates of PTSD and depression prevalence adjusted for an extensive range of covariates and is a significant advancement on our current understanding of the epidemiology in conflict-affected populations.

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

IMPORTANCE: Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. OBJECTIVES: To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. DESIGN: We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. RESULTS: US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

Global burden of oral conditions in 1990-2010: a systematic analysis.

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study produced comparable estimates of the burden of 291 diseases and injuries in 1990, 2005, and 2010. This article reports on the global burden of untreated caries, severe periodontitis, and severe tooth loss in 2010 and compares those figures with new estimates for 1990. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) metrics to quantify burden. Oral conditions affected 3.9 billion people, and untreated caries in permanent teeth was the most prevalent condition evaluated for the entire GBD 2010 Study (global prevalence of 35% for all ages combined). Oral conditions combined accounted for 15 million DALYs globally (1.9% of all YLDs; 0.6% of all DALYs), implying an average health loss of 224 years per 100,000 population. DALYs due to oral conditions increased 20.8% between 1990 and 2010, mainly due to population growth and aging. While DALYs due to severe periodontitis and untreated caries increased, those due to severe tooth loss decreased. DALYs differed by age groups and regions, but not by genders. The findings highlight the challenge in responding to the diversity of urgent oral health needs worldwide, particularly in developing communities.