Spatio-temporal estimates of HIV risk group proportions for adolescent girls and young women across 13 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026 identifies adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) as a priority population for HIV prevention, and recommends differentiating intervention portfolios geographically based on local HIV incidence and individual risk behaviours. We estimated prevalence of HIV risk behaviours and associated HIV incidence at health district level among AGYW living in 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed 46 geospatially-referenced national household surveys conducted between 1999-2018 across 13 high HIV burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Female survey respondents aged 15-29 years were classified into four risk groups (not sexually active, cohabiting, non-regular or multiple partner[s] and female sex workers [FSW]) based on reported sexual behaviour. We used a Bayesian spatio-temporal multinomial regression model to estimate the proportion of AGYW in each risk group stratified by district, year, and five-year age group. Using subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence produced by countries with support from UNAIDS, we estimated new HIV infections in each risk group by district and age group. We then assessed the efficiency of prioritising interventions according to risk group. Data consisted of 274,970 female survey respondents aged 15-29. Among women aged 20-29, cohabiting (63.1%) was more common in eastern Africa than non-regular or multiple partner(s) (21.3%), while in southern countries non-regular or multiple partner(s) (58.9%) were more common than cohabiting (23.4%). Risk group proportions varied substantially across age groups (65.9% of total variation explained), countries (20.9%), and between districts within each country (11.3%), but changed little over time (0.9%). Prioritisation based on behavioural risk, in combination with location- and age-based prioritisation, reduced the proportion of population required to be reached in order to find half of all expected new infections from 19.4% to 10.6%. FSW were 1.3% of the population but 10.6% of all expected new infections. Our risk group estimates provide data for HIV programmes to set targets and implement differentiated prevention strategies outlined in the Global AIDS Strategy. Successfully implementing this approach would result in more efficiently reaching substantially more of those at risk for infections.

Effective refractive error coverage in adults aged 50 years and older: estimates from population-based surveys in 61 countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, WHO Member States endorsed a global target of a 40-percentage-point increase in effective refractive error coverage (eREC; with a 6/12 visual acuity threshold) by 2030. This study models global and regional estimates of eREC as a baseline for the WHO initiative. METHODS: The Vision Loss Expert Group analysed data from 565 448 participants of 169 population-based eye surveys conducted since 2000 to calculate eREC (met need/[met need + undermet need + unmet need]). A binary logistic regression model was used to estimate eREC by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study super region among adults aged 50 years and older. FINDINGS: In 2021, distance eREC was 79·1% (95% CI 72·4-85·0) in the high-income super region; 62·1% (54·7-68·8) in north Africa and Middle East; 49·5% (45·0-54·0) in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; 40·0% (31·7-48·2) in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania; 34·5% (29·4-40·0) in Latin America and the Caribbean; 9·0% (6·5-12·0) in south Asia; and 5·7% (3·1-9·0) in sub-Saharan Africa. eREC was higher in men and reduced with increasing age. Global distance eREC increased from 2000 to 2021 by 19·0%. Global near vision eREC for 2021 was 20·5% (95% CI 17·8-24·4). INTERPRETATION: Over the past 20 years, distance eREC has increased in each super region yet the WHO target will require substantial improvements in quantity and quality of refractive services in particular for near vision impairment. FUNDING: WHO, Sightsavers, The Fred Hollows Foundation, Fondation Thea, Brien Holden Vision Institute, Lions Clubs International Foundation.

National, regional, and global estimates of anaemia by severity in women and children for 2000-19: a pooled analysis of population-representative data.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia causes health and economic harms. The prevalence of anaemia in women aged 15-49 years, by pregnancy status, is indicator 2.2.3 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and the aim of halving the anaemia prevalence in women of reproductive age by 2030 is an extension of the 2025 global nutrition targets endorsed by the World Health Assembly (WHA). We aimed to estimate the prevalence of anaemia by severity for children aged 6-59 months, non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years, and pregnant women aged 15-49 years in 197 countries and territories and globally for the period 2000-19. METHODS: For this pooled analysis of population-representative data, we collated 489 data sources on haemoglobin distribution in children and women from 133 countries, including 4·5 million haemoglobin measurements. Our data sources comprised health examination, nutrition, and household surveys, accessed as anonymised individual records or as summary statistics such as mean haemoglobin and anaemia prevalence. We used a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model to estimate haemoglobin distributions in each population and country-year. This model allowed for coherent estimation of mean haemoglobin and prevalence of anaemia by severity. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, 40% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 36-44) of children aged 6-59 months were anaemic, compared to 48% (45-51) in 2000. Globally, the prevalence of anaemia in non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years changed little between 2000 and 2019, from 31% (95% UI 28-34) to 30% (27-33), while in pregnant women aged 15-49 years it decreased from 41% (39-43) to 36% (34-39). In 2019, the prevalence of anaemia in children aged 6-59 months exceeded 70% in 11 countries and exceeded 50% in all women aged 15-49 years in ten countries. Globally in all populations and in most countries and regions, the prevalence of mild anaemia changed little, while moderate and severe anaemia declined in most populations and geographical locations, indicating a shift towards mild anaemia. INTERPRETATION: Globally, regionally, and in nearly all countries, progress on anaemia in women aged 15-49 years is insufficient to meet the WHA global nutrition target to halve anaemia prevalence by 2030, and the prevalence of anaemia in children also remains high. A better understanding of the context-specific causes of anaemia and quality implementation of effective multisectoral actions to address these causes are needed. FUNDING: USAID, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Scalable Bayesian inference for self-excitatory stochastic processes applied to big American gunfire data.

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these stochastic process models within a host of economic sectors and scientific disciplines is undercut by the processes' computational burden: complexity of likelihood evaluations grows quadratically in the number of observations for both the temporal and spatiotemporal Hawkes processes. We show that, with care, one may parallelize these calculations using both central and graphics processing unit implementations to achieve over 100-fold speedups over single-core processing. Using a simple adaptive Metropolis-Hastings scheme, we apply our high-performance computing framework to a Bayesian analysis of big gunshot data generated in Washington D.C. between the years of 2006 and 2019, thereby extending a past analysis of the same data from under 10,000 to over 85,000 observations. To encourage widespread use, we provide hpHawkes, an open-source R package, and discuss high-level implementation and program design for leveraging aspects of computational hardware that become necessary in a big data setting.

Improving axial resolution in Structured Illumination Microscopy using deep learning.

Structured Illumination Microscopy (SIM) is a widespread methodology to image live and fixed biological structures smaller than the diffraction limits of conventional optical microscopy. Using recent advances in image up-scaling through deep learning models, we demonstrate a method to reconstruct 3D SIM image stacks with twice the axial resolution attainable through conventional SIM reconstructions. We further demonstrate our method is robust to noise and evaluate it against two-point cases and axial gratings. Finally, we discuss potential adaptions of the method to further improve resolution. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Super-resolution structured illumination microscopy (part 1)'.

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the prevalence and causes of vision loss in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2015, compared with prior years, and to estimate expected values for 2020. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the prevalence of blindness (presenting distance visual acuity <3/60 in the better eye), moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting distance visual acuity <6/18 but ≥3/60) and mild vision impairment (MVI; presenting distance visual acuity <6/12 and ≥6/18), and also near vision impairment (

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in East Asia in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections.

BACKGROUND: To determine the prevalence and causes of blindness and vision impairment (VI) in East Asia in 2015 and to forecast the trend to 2020. METHODS: Through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, we estimated prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60 in the better eye), moderate-to-severe vision impairment (MSVI; 3/60≤presenting visual acuity <6/18), mild vision impairment (mild VI: 6/18≤presenting visual acuity <6/12) and uncorrected presbyopia for 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2020. A total of 44 population-based studies were included. RESULTS: In 2015, age-standardised prevalence of blindness, MSVI, mild VI and uncorrected presbyopia was 0.37% (80% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.12%-0.68%), 3.06% (80% UI 1.35%-5.16%) and 2.65% (80% UI 0.92%-4.91%), 32.91% (80% UI 18.72%-48.47%), respectively, in East Asia. Cataract was the leading cause of blindness (43.6%), followed by uncorrected refractive error (12.9%), glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, corneal diseases, trachoma and diabetic retinopathy (DR). The leading cause for MSVI was uncorrected refractive error, followed by cataract, age-related macular degeneration, glaucoma, corneal disease, trachoma and DR. The burden of VI due to uncorrected refractive error, cataracts, glaucoma and DR has continued to rise over the decades reported. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing the public healthcare barriers for cataract and uncorrected refractive error can help eliminate almost 57% of all blindness cases in this region. Therefore, public healthcare efforts should be focused on effective screening and effective patient education, with access to high-quality healthcare.

VARIABLE PRIORITIZATION IN NONLINEAR BLACK BOX METHODS: A GENETIC ASSOCIATION CASE STUDY1.

The central aim in this paper is to address variable selection questions in nonlinear and nonparametric regression. Motivated by statistical genetics, where nonlinear interactions are of particular interest, we introduce a novel and interpretable way to summarize the relative importance of predictor variables. Methodologically, we develop the "RelATive cEntrality" (RATE) measure to prioritize candidate genetic variants that are not just marginally important, but whose associations also stem from significant covarying relationships with other variants in the data. We illustrate RATE through Bayesian Gaussian process regression, but the methodological innovations apply to other "black box" methods. It is known that nonlinear models often exhibit greater predictive accuracy than linear models, particularly for phenotypes generated by complex genetic architectures. With detailed simulations and two real data association mapping studies, we show that applying RATE enables an explanation for this improved performance.

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in North Africa and Middle East in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections.

BACKGROUND: To assess the prevalence and causes of vision impairment in North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) from 1990 to 2015 and to forecast projections for 2020. METHODS: Based on a systematic review of medical literature, the prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity (PVA) <3/60 in the better eye), moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; PVA <6/18 but ≥3/60) and mild vision impairment (PVA <6/12 but ≥6/18) was estimated for 2015 and 2020. RESULTS: The age-standardised prevalence of blindness and MSVI for all ages and genders decreased from 1990 to 2015, from 1.72 (0.53-3.13) to 0.95% (0.32%-1.71%), and from 6.66 (3.09-10.69) to 4.62% (2.21%-7.33%), respectively, with slightly higher figures for women than men. Cataract was the most common cause of blindness in 1990 and 2015, followed by uncorrected refractive error. Uncorrected refractive error was the leading cause of MSVI in the NAME region in 1990 and 2015, followed by cataract. A reduction in the proportions of blindness and MSVI due to cataract, corneal opacity and trachoma is predicted by 2020. Conversely, an increase in the proportion of blindness attributable to uncorrected refractive error, glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy is expected. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015 cataract and uncorrected refractive error were the major causes of vision loss in the NAME region. Proportions of vision impairment from cataract, corneal opacity and trachoma are expected to decrease by 2020, and those from uncorrected refractive error, glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration are predicted to increase by 2020.

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and causes of blindness and vision impairment for distance and near in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in 2015 and to forecast trends to 2020. METHODS: A meta-analysis from a global systematic review of 283 cross-sectional, population-representative studies from published and unpublished sources from 1980 to 2014 in the Global Vision Database included 17 published and 6 unpublished studies from LAC. RESULTS: In 2015, across LAC, age-standardised prevalence was 0.38% in all ages and 1.56% in those over age 50 for blindness; 2.06% in all ages and 7.86% in those over age 50 for moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI); 1.89% in all ages and 6.93% in those over age 50 for mild vision impairment and 39.59% in all ages and 45.27% in those over 50 for near vision impairment (NVI). In 2015, 117.86 million persons were vision impaired; of those 2.34 million blind, 12.46 million with MSVI, 11.34 million mildly impaired and 91.72 million had NVI. Cataract is the most common cause of blindness. Undercorrected refractive-error is the most common cause of vision impairment. CONCLUSIONS: These prevalence estimates indicate that one in five persons across LAC had some degree of vision loss in 2015. We predict that from 2015 to 2020, the absolute numbers of persons with vision loss will increase by 12% to 132.33 million, while the all-age age-standardised prevalence will decrease for blindness by 15% and for other distance vision impairment by 8%. All countries need epidemiologic research to establish accurate national estimates and trends. Universal eye health services must be included in universal health coverage reforms to address disparities, fragmentation and segmentation of healthcare.

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in South-east Asia and Oceania in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections.

BACKGROUND: To assess prevalence and causes of vision impairment in South-east Asia and Oceania regions from 1990 to 2015 and to forecast the figures for 2020. METHODS: Based on a systematic review of medical literature, prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity (PVA) <3/60 in the better eye), moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; PVA <6/18 but ≥3/60), mild vision impairment (PVA <6/12 but ≥6/18) and near vision impairment (>N5 or N8 in the presence of normal vision) were estimated for 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2020. RESULTS: The age-standardised prevalence of blindness for all ages and both genders was higher in the Oceania region but lower for MSVI when comparing the subregions. The prevalence of near vision impairment in people≥50 years was 41% (uncertainty interval (UI) 18.8 to 65.9). Comparison of the data for 2015 with 2020 predicts a small increase in the numbers of people affected by blindness, MSVI and mild VI in both subregions. The numbers predicted for near VI in South-east Asia are from 90.68 million in 2015 to 102.88 million in 2020. The main causes of blindness and MSVI in both subregions in 2015 were cataract, uncorrected refractive error, glaucoma, corneal disease and age-related macular degeneration. There was no trachoma in Oceania from 1990 and decreasing prevalence in South-east Asia with elimination predicted by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: In both regions, the main challenges for eye care come from cataract which remains the main cause of blindness with uncorrected refractive error the main cause of MSVI. The trend between 1990 and 2015 is for a lower prevalence of blindness and MSVI in both regions.

Prevalence and causes of blindness and vision impairment: magnitude, temporal trends and projections in South and Central Asia.

BACKGROUND: To assess prevalence and causes of vision loss in Central and South Asia. METHODS: A systematic review of medical literature assessed the prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity<3/60 in the better eye), moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity <6/18 but ≥3/60) and mild vision impairment (MVI; presenting visual acuity <6/12 and ≥6/18) in Central and South Asia for 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2020. RESULTS: In Central and South Asia combined, age-standardised prevalences of blindness, MSVI and MVI in 2015 were for men and women aged 50+years, 3.72% (80% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.39-6.75) and 4.00% (80% UI: 1.41-7.39), 16.33% (80% UI: 8.55-25.47) and 17.65% (80% UI: 9.00-27.62), 11.70% (80% UI: 4.70-20.32) and 12.25% (80% UI:4.86-21.30), respectively, with a significant decrease in the study period for both gender. In South Asia in 2015, 11.76 million individuals (32.65% of the global blindness figure) were blind and 61.19 million individuals (28.3% of the global total) had MSVI. From 1990 to 2015, cataract (accounting for 36.58% of all cases with blindness in 2015) was the most common cause of blindness, followed by undercorrected refractive error (36.43%), glaucoma (5.81%), age-related macular degeneration (2.44%), corneal diseases (2.43%), diabetic retinopathy (0.16%) and trachoma (0.04%). For MSVI in South Asia 2015, most common causes were undercorrected refractive error (accounting for 66.39% of all cases with MSVI), followed by cataract (23.62%), age-related macular degeneration (1.31%) and glaucoma (1.09%). CONCLUSIONS: One-third of the global blind resided in South Asia in 2015, although the age-standardised prevalence of blindness and MSVI decreased significantly between 1990 and 2015.

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in high-income countries and in Eastern and Central Europe in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections.

BACKGROUND: Within a surveillance of the prevalence and causes of vision impairment in high-income regions and Central/Eastern Europe, we update figures through 2015 and forecast expected values in 2020. METHODS: Based on a systematic review of medical literature, prevalence of blindness, moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI), mild vision impairment and presbyopia was estimated for 1990, 2010, 2015, and 2020. RESULTS: Age-standardised prevalence of blindness and MSVI for all ages decreased from 1990 to 2015 from 0.26% (0.10-0.46) to 0.15% (0.06-0.26) and from 1.74% (0.76-2.94) to 1.27% (0.55-2.17), respectively. In 2015, the number of individuals affected by blindness, MSVI and mild vision impairment ranged from 70 000, 630 000 and 610 000, respectively, in Australasia to 980 000, 7.46 million and 7.25 million, respectively, in North America and 1.16 million, 9.61 million and 9.47 million, respectively, in Western Europe. In 2015, cataract was the most common cause for blindness, followed by age-related macular degeneration (AMD), glaucoma, uncorrected refractive error, diabetic retinopathy and cornea-related disorders, with declining burden from cataract and AMD over time. Uncorrected refractive error was the leading cause of MSVI. CONCLUSIONS: While continuing to advance control of cataract and AMD as the leading causes of blindness remains a high priority, overcoming barriers to uptake of refractive error services would address approximately half of the MSVI burden. New data on burden of presbyopia identify this entity as an important public health problem in this population. Additional research on better treatments, better implementation with existing tools and ongoing surveillance of the problem is needed.

Global causes of blindness and distance vision impairment 1990-2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary data for causes of vision impairment and blindness form an important basis of recommendations in public health policies. Refreshment of the Global Vision Database with recently published data sources permitted modelling of cause of vision loss data from 1990 to 2015, further disaggregation by cause, and forecasts to 2020. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we analysed published and unpublished population-based data for the causes of vision impairment and blindness from 1980 to 2014. We identified population-based studies published before July 8, 2014, by searching online databases with no language restrictions (MEDLINE from Jan 1, 1946, and Embase from Jan 1, 1974, and the WHO Library Database). We fitted a series of regression models to estimate the proportion of moderate or severe vision impairment (defined as presenting visual acuity of <6/18 but ≥3/60 in the better eye) and blindness (presenting visual acuity of <3/60 in the better eye) by cause, age, region, and year. FINDINGS: We identified 288 studies of 3 983 541 participants contributing data from 98 countries. Among the global population with moderate or severe vision impairment in 2015 (216·6 million [80% uncertainty interval 98·5 million to 359·1 million]), the leading causes were uncorrected refractive error (116·3 million [49·4 million to 202·1 million]), cataract (52·6 million [18·2 million to 109·6 million]), age-related macular degeneration (8·4 million [0·9 million to 29·5 million]), glaucoma (4·0 million [0·6 million to 13·3 million]), and diabetic retinopathy (2·6 million [0·2 million to 9·9 million]). Among the global population who were blind in 2015 (36·0 million [12·9 million to 65·4 million]), the leading causes were cataract (12·6 million [3·4 million to 28·7 million]), uncorrected refractive error (7·4 million [2·4 million to 14·8 million]), and glaucoma (2·9 million [0·4 million to 9·9 million]). By 2020, among the global population with moderate or severe vision impairment (237·1 million [101·5 million to 399·0 million]), the number of people affected by uncorrected refractive error is anticipated to rise to 127·7 million (51·0 million to 225·3 million), by cataract to 57·1 million (17·9 million to 124·1 million), by age-related macular degeneration to 8·8 million (0·8 million to 32·1 million), by glaucoma to 4·5 million (0·5 million to 15·4 million), and by diabetic retinopathy to 3·2 million (0·2 million to 12·9 million). By 2020, among the global population who are blind (38·5 million [13·2 million to 70·9 million]), the number of patients blind because of cataract is anticipated to rise to 13·4 million (3·3 million to 31·6 million), because of uncorrected refractive error to 8·0 million (2·5 million to 16·3 million), and because of glaucoma to 3·2 million (0·4 million to 11·0 million). Cataract and uncorrected refractive error combined contributed to 55% of blindness and 77% of vision impairment in adults aged 50 years and older in 2015. World regions varied markedly in the causes of blindness and vision impairment in this age group, with a low prevalence of cataract (<22% for blindness and 14·1-15·9% for vision impairment) and a high prevalence of age-related macular degeneration (>14% of blindness) as causes in the high-income subregions. Blindness and vision impairment at all ages in 2015 due to diabetic retinopathy (odds ratio 2·52 [1·48-3·73]) and cataract (1·21 [1·17-1·25]) were more common among women than among men, whereas blindness and vision impairment due to glaucoma (0·71 [0·57-0·86]) and corneal opacity (0·54 [0·43-0·66]) were more common among men than among women, with no sex difference related to age-related macular degeneration (0·91 [0·70-1·14]). INTERPRETATION: The number of people affected by the common causes of vision loss has increased substantially as the population increases and ages. Preventable vision loss due to cataract (reversible with surgery) and refractive error (reversible with spectacle correction) continue to cause most cases of blindness and moderate or severe vision impairment in adults aged 50 years and older. A large scale-up of eye care provision to cope with the increasing numbers is needed to address avoidable vision loss. FUNDING: Brien Holden Vision Institute.

Improved prediction accuracy for disease risk mapping using Gaussian process stacked generalization.

Maps of infectious disease-charting spatial variations in the force of infection, degree of endemicity and the burden on human health-provide an essential evidence base to support planning towards global health targets. Contemporary disease mapping efforts have embraced statistical modelling approaches to properly acknowledge uncertainties in both the available measurements and their spatial interpolation. The most common such approach is Gaussian process regression, a mathematical framework composed of two components: a mean function harnessing the predictive power of multiple independent variables, and a covariance function yielding spatio-temporal shrinkage against residual variation from the mean. Though many techniques have been developed to improve the flexibility and fitting of the covariance function, models for the mean function have typically been restricted to simple linear terms. For infectious diseases, known to be driven by complex interactions between environmental and socio-economic factors, improved modelling of the mean function can greatly boost predictive power. Here, we present an ensemble approach based on stacked generalization that allows for multiple nonlinear algorithmic mean functions to be jointly embedded within the Gaussian process framework. We apply this method to mapping Plasmodium falciparum prevalence data in sub-Saharan Africa and show that the generalized ensemble approach markedly outperforms any individual method.

Magnitude, temporal trends, and projections of the global prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Global and regional prevalence estimates for blindness and vision impairment are important for the development of public health policies. We aimed to provide global estimates, trends, and projections of global blindness and vision impairment. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based datasets relevant to global vision impairment and blindness that were published between 1980 and 2015. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate the prevalence (by age, country, and sex), in 2015, of mild visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 to 6/18 inclusive), moderate to severe visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/18 to 3/60 inclusive), blindness (presenting visual acuity worse than 3/60), and functional presbyopia (defined as presenting near vision worse than N6 or N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance visual acuity was better than 6/12). FINDINGS: Globally, of the 7·33 billion people alive in 2015, an estimated 36·0 million (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·9-65·4) were blind (crude prevalence 0·48%; 80% UI 0·17-0·87; 56% female), 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5-359·1) people had moderate to severe visual impairment (2·95%, 80% UI 1·34-4·89; 55% female), and 188·5 million (80% UI 64·5-350·2) had mild visual impairment (2·57%, 80% UI 0·88-4·77; 54% female). Functional presbyopia affected an estimated 1094·7 million (80% UI 581·1-1686·5) people aged 35 years and older, with 666·7 million (80% UI 364·9-997·6) being aged 50 years or older. The estimated number of blind people increased by 17·6%, from 30·6 million (80% UI 9·9-57·3) in 1990 to 36·0 million (80% UI 12·9-65·4) in 2015. This change was attributable to three factors, namely an increase because of population growth (38·4%), population ageing after accounting for population growth (34·6%), and reduction in age-specific prevalence (-36·7%). The number of people with moderate and severe visual impairment also increased, from 159·9 million (80% UI 68·3-270·0) in 1990 to 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5-359·1) in 2015. INTERPRETATION: There is an ongoing reduction in the age-standardised prevalence of blindness and visual impairment, yet the growth and ageing of the world's population is causing a substantial increase in number of people affected. These observations, plus a very large contribution from uncorrected presbyopia, highlight the need to scale up vision impairment alleviation efforts at all levels. FUNDING: Brien Holden Vision Institute.

Number of People Blind or Visually Impaired by Glaucoma Worldwide and in World Regions 1990 - 2010: A Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the number of individuals visually impaired or blind due to glaucoma and to examine regional differences and temporal changes in this parameter for the period from 1990 to 2012. METHODS: As part of the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2010, we performed a systematic literature review for the period from 1980 to 2012. We primarily identified 14,908 relevant manuscripts, out of which 243 high-quality, population-based studies remained after review by an expert panel that involved application of selection criteria that dwelt on population representativeness and clarity of visual acuity methods used. Sixty-six specified the proportion attributable to glaucoma. The software tool DisMod-MR (Disease Modeling-Metaregression) of the GBD was used to calculate fraction of vision impairment due to glaucoma. RESULTS: In 2010, 2.1 million (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI):1.9,2.6) people were blind, and 4.2 (95% UI:3.7,5.8) million were visually impaired due to glaucoma. Glaucoma caused worldwide 6.6% (95% UI:5.9,7.9) of all blindness in 2010 and 2.2% (95% UI:2.0,2.8) of all moderate and severe visual impairment (MSVI). These figures were lower in regions with younger populations (<5% in South Asia) than in high-income regions with relatively old populations (>10%). From 1990 to 2010, the number of blind or visually impaired due to glaucoma increased by 0.8 million (95%UI:0.7, 1.1) or 62% and by 2.3 million (95%UI:2.1,3.5) or 83%, respectively. Percentage of global blindness caused by glaucoma increased between 1990 and 2010 from 4.4% (4.0,5.1) to 6.6%. Age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma related blindness and MSVI did not differ markedly between world regions nor between women. SIGNIFICANCE: By 2010, one out of 15 blind people was blind due to glaucoma, and one of 45 visually impaired people was visually impaired, highlighting the increasing global burden of glaucoma.

Global Estimates on the Number of People Blind or Visually Impaired by Diabetic Retinopathy: A Meta-analysis From 1990 to 2010.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate global and regional trends from 1990 to 2010 of the prevalence and number of persons visually impaired specifically by diabetic retinopathy (DR), as a complication of the precipitous trends in global diabetes, is fundamental for health planning purposes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The meta-analysis of published population studies from 1990 to 2012 for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD) yielded estimated global regional trends in DR among other causes of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity <6/18, ≥3/60) and blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60). RESULTS: Globally in 2010, out of overall 32.4 million blind and 191 million visually impaired people, 0.8 million were blind and 3.7 million were visually impaired because of DR, with an alarming increase of 27% and 64%, respectively, spanning the two decades from 1990 to 2010. DR accounted for 2.6% of all blindness in 2010 and 1.9% of all MSVI worldwide, increasing from 2.1% and 1.3%, respectively, in 1990. These figures were lower in regions with younger populations (<2% in East and Southeast Asia and Oceania) than in high-income regions (North America, Western Europe, and Australasia) with relatively aging populations (>4%). CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons with visual impairment due to DR worldwide is rising and represents an increasing proportion of all blindness/MSVI causes. Age-standardized prevalence of DR-related blindness/MSVI was higher in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. One out of 39 blind people had blindness due to DR, and 1 out of 52 visually impaired people had visual impairment due to DR.

Global Vision Impairment and Blindness Due to Uncorrected Refractive Error, 1990-2010.

The purpose of this systematic review was to estimate worldwide the number of people with moderate and severe visual impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity <6/18, ≥3/60) or blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60) due to uncorrected refractive error (URE), to estimate trends in prevalence from 1990 to 2010, and to analyze regional differences. The review focuses on uncorrected refractive error which is now the most common cause of avoidable visual impairment globally. : The systematic review of 14,908 relevant manuscripts from 1990 to 2010 using Medline, Embase, and WHOLIS yielded 243 high-quality, population-based cross-sectional studies which informed a meta-analysis of trends by region. The results showed that in 2010, 6.8 million (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.7-8.8 million) people were blind (7.9% increase from 1990) and 101.2 million (95% CI: 87.88-125.5 million) vision impaired due to URE (15% increase since 1990), while the global population increased by 30% (1990-2010). The all-age age-standardized prevalence of URE blindness decreased 33% from 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1-0.2%) in 1990 to 0.1% (95% CI: 0.1-0.1%) in 2010, whereas the prevalence of URE MSVI decreased 25% from 2.1% (95% CI: 1.6-2.4%) in 1990 to 1.5% (95% CI: 1.3-1.9%) in 2010. In 2010, URE contributed 20.9% (95% CI: 15.2-25.9%) of all blindness and 52.9% (95% CI: 47.2-57.3%) of all MSVI worldwide. The contribution of URE to all MSVI ranged from 44.2 to 48.1% in all regions except in South Asia which was at 65.4% (95% CI: 62-72%). : We conclude that in 2010, uncorrected refractive error continues as the leading cause of vision impairment and the second leading cause of blindness worldwide, affecting a total of 108 million people or 1 in 90 persons.