Informing the public health response to COVID-19: a systematic review of risk factors for disease, severity, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has challenged public health agencies globally. In order to effectively target government responses, it is critical to identify the individuals most at risk of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), developing severe clinical signs, and mortality. We undertook a systematic review of the literature to present the current status of scientific knowledge in these areas and describe the need for unified global approaches, moving forwards, as well as lessons learnt for future pandemics. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Global Health were searched to the end of April 2020, as well as the Web of Science. Search terms were specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19. Comparative studies of risk factors from any setting, population group and in any language were included. Titles, abstracts and full texts were screened by two reviewers and extracted in duplicate into a standardised form. Data were extracted on risk factors for COVID-19 disease, severe disease, or death and were narratively and descriptively synthesised. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and thirty-eight papers were identified post-deduplication. Thirty-three met our inclusion criteria, of which 26 were from China. Six assessed the risk of contracting the disease, 20 the risk of having severe disease and ten the risk of dying. Age, gender and co-morbidities were commonly assessed as risk factors. The weight of evidence showed increasing age to be associated with severe disease and mortality, and general comorbidities with mortality. Only seven studies presented multivariable analyses and power was generally limited. A wide range of definitions were used for disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: The volume of literature generated in the short time since the appearance of SARS-CoV-2 has been considerable. Many studies have sought to document the risk factors for COVID-19 disease, disease severity and mortality; age was the only risk factor based on robust studies and with a consistent body of evidence. Mechanistic studies are required to understand why age is such an important risk factor. At the start of pandemics, large, standardised, studies that use multivariable analyses are urgently needed so that the populations most at risk can be rapidly protected. REGISTRATION: This review was registered on PROSPERO as CRD42020177714 .

Percutaneous transhepatic cholecystoduodenal stent for empyema of the gallbladder.

Acute cholecystitis is treated by antibiotics and cholecystectomy. When the gallbladder neck is obstructed in the presence of infection, preventing pus from draining via the cystic duct, an empyema of the gallbladder develops. Under these circumstances, treatment may be either cholecystectomy or, in the presence of significant comorbidity, by drainage via percutaneous cholecystostomy, followed at a later date by cholecystectomy. We present the case of a patient who presented acutely with an attack of cholecystitis and refused to undergo a cholecystectomy owing to previous respiratory arrest following general anaesthesia. She settled with intravenous antibiotic treatment and was discharged. However, she presented shortly afterwards with a further attack of cholecystitis that was refractory to intravenous antibiotics and so was treated initially with percutaneous drainage. This was subsequently replaced with interno-external drainage of the gallbladder (transpapillary cholecystoduodenal stent) with the use of a J-J ureteric stent, which was then fully internalised. She remained well following this procedure and was discharged home. The long-term patency of the stent is not known and we hope that no further intervention will be required, but if necessary the stent could be exchanged endoscopically, by a percutaneous route, or via a combined approach.