Molecular signatures of long-term hepatocellular carcinoma risk in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk is an urgent unmet need in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In cohorts of 409 patients with NAFLD from multiple global regions, we defined and validated hepatic transcriptome and serum secretome signatures predictive of long-term HCC risk in patients with NAFLD. A 133-gene signature, prognostic liver signature (PLS)-NAFLD, predicted incident HCC over up to 15 years of longitudinal observation. High-risk PLS-NAFLD was associated with IDO1+ dendritic cells and dysfunctional CD8+ T cells in fibrotic portal tracts along with impaired metabolic regulators. PLS-NAFLD was validated in independent cohorts of patients with NAFLD who were HCC naïve (HCC incidence rates at 15 years were 22.7 and 0% in high- and low-risk patients, respectively) or HCC experienced (de novo HCC recurrence rates at 5 years were 71.8 and 42.9% in high- and low-risk patients, respectively). PLS-NAFLD was bioinformatically translated into a four-protein secretome signature, PLSec-NAFLD, which was validated in an independent cohort of HCC-naïve patients with NAFLD and cirrhosis (HCC incidence rates at 15 years were 37.6 and 0% in high- and low-risk patients, respectively). Combination of PLSec-NAFLD with our previously defined etiology-agnostic PLSec-AFP yielded improved HCC risk stratification. PLS-NAFLD was modified by bariatric surgery, lipophilic statin, and IDO1 inhibitor, suggesting that the signature can be used for drug discovery and as a surrogate end point in HCC chemoprevention clinical trials. Collectively, PLS/PLSec-NAFLD may enable NAFLD-specific HCC risk prediction and facilitate clinical translation of NAFLD-directed HCC chemoprevention.

A Blood-Based Prognostic Liver Secretome Signature Predicts Long-term Risk of Hepatic Decompensation in Cirrhosis.

Cirrhosis is the terminal stage of progressive liver fibrosis, affecting 1%-2% of the global population and accounting for 1.3 million deaths annually.1,2 Median survival for persons with compensated cirrhosis is approximately 12 years, compared with only 2 years for those with hepatic decompensation. Accurate prediction of hepatic decompensation is an unmet need to enable identification of patients with cirrhosis who could benefit from close monitoring and timely medical interventions. Besides, risk stratification of patients with cirrhosis could help inform patient selection for trials evaluating therapies to prevent hepatic decompensation. Although various clinical scores, such as the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) indices (ALBI-FIB4 score) have been proposed to predict long-term risk of hepatic decompensation,3 external validation has often shown suboptimal prognostic capability and revealed room for improvement.4.

Molecular Signature Predictive of Long-Term Liver Fibrosis Progression to Inform Antifibrotic Drug Development.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is a major unmet need to assess the prognostic impact of antifibrotics in clinical trials because of the slow rate of liver fibrosis progression. We aimed to develop a surrogate biomarker to predict future fibrosis progression. METHODS: A fibrosis progression signature (FPS) was defined to predict fibrosis progression within 5 years in patients with hepatitis C virus and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with no to minimal fibrosis at baseline (n = 421) and was validated in an independent NAFLD cohort (n = 78). The FPS was used to assess response to 13 candidate antifibrotics in organotypic ex vivo cultures of clinical fibrotic liver tissues (n = 78) and cenicriviroc in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis enrolled in a clinical trial (n = 19, NCT02217475). A serum protein-based surrogate FPS was developed and tested in a cohort of compensated cirrhosis patients (n = 122). RESULTS: A 20-gene FPS was defined and validated in an independent NAFLD cohort (adjusted odds ratio, 10.93; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.86). Among computationally inferred fibrosis-driving FPS genes, BCL2 was confirmed as a potential pharmacologic target using clinical liver tissues. Systematic ex vivo evaluation of 13 candidate antifibrotics identified rational combination therapies based on epigallocatechin gallate, which were validated for enhanced antifibrotic effect in ex vivo culture of clinical liver tissues. In patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis treated with cenicriviroc, FPS modulation was associated with 1-year fibrosis improvement accompanied by suppression of the E2F pathway. Induction of the PPARα pathway was absent in patients without fibrosis improvement, suggesting a benefit of combining PPARα agonism to improve the antifibrotic efficacy of cenicriviroc. A 7-protein serum protein-based surrogate FPS was associated with the development of decompensation in cirrhosis patients. CONCLUSION: The FPS predicts long-term fibrosis progression in an etiology-agnostic manner, which can inform antifibrotic drug development.

A blood-based prognostic liver secretome signature and long-term hepatocellular carcinoma risk in advanced liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Accurate non-invasive prediction of long-term hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in advanced liver fibrosis is urgently needed for cost-effective HCC screening; however, this currently remains an unmet need. METHODS: A serum-protein-based prognostic liver secretome signature (PLSec) was bioinformatically derived from previously validated hepatic transcriptome signatures and optimized in 79 patients with advanced liver fibrosis. We independently validated PLSec for HCC risk in 331 cirrhosis patients with mixed etiologies (validation set 1 [V1]) and thereafter developed a score with clinical prognostic variables. The score was then validated in two independent cohorts: validation set 2 (V2): 164 patients with advanced liver fibrosis due to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection cured after direct-acting antiviral therapy; validation set 3 (V3): 146 patients with advanced liver fibrosis with successfully-treated HCC and cured HCV infection. FINDINGS: An 8-protein blood-based PLSec recapitulated transcriptome-based hepatic HCC risk status. In V1, PLSec was significantly associated with incident HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-4.23). A composite score with serum alpha-fetoprotein (PLSec-AFP) was defined in V1, and validated in V2 (adjusted odds ratio, 3.80 [95%CI, 1.66-8.66]) and V3 (aHR, 3.08 [95%CI, 1.78-5.31]; c-index, 0.74). PLSec-AFP outperformed AFP alone (Brier score, 0.165 vs. 0.186 in V2; 0.196 vs. 0.206 in V3, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The blood-based PLSec-AFP can accurately stratify patients with advanced liver fibrosis for long-term HCC risk and thereby guide risk-based tailored HCC screening.