ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To our knowledge in patients with prostate cancer there are no available tests except clinical variables to determine the likelihood of disease progression. We developed a patient specific, biology driven tool to predict outcome at diagnosis. We also investigated whether biopsy androgen receptor levels predict a durable response to therapy after secondary treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated paraffin embedded prostate needle biopsy tissue from 1,027 patients with cT1c-T3 prostate cancer treated with surgery and followed a median of 8 years. Machine learning was done to integrate clinical data with biopsy quantitative biometric features. Multivariate models were constructed to predict disease progression with the C index to estimate performance. RESULTS: In a training set of 686 patients (total of 87 progression events) 3 clinical and 3 biopsy tissue characteristics were identified to predict clinical progression within 8 years after prostatectomy with 78% sensitivity, 69% specificity, a C index of 0.74 and a HR of 5.12. Validation in an independent cohort of 341 patients (total of 44 progression events) yielded 76% sensitivity, 64% specificity, a C index of 0.73 and a HR of 3.47. Increased androgen receptor in tumor cells in the biopsy highly significantly predicted resistance to therapy, ie androgen ablation with or without salvage radiotherapy, and clinical failure (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Morphometry reliably classifies Gleason pattern 3 tumors. When combined with biomarker data, it adds to the hematoxylin and eosin analysis, and prostate specific antigen values currently used to assess outcome at diagnosis. Biopsy androgen receptor levels predict the likelihood of a response to therapy after recurrence and may guide future treatment decisions.
Subject(s)
Biopsy, Needle/methods , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/pathology , Prostate-Specific Antigen/blood , Prostatic Neoplasms/pathology , Prostatic Neoplasms/surgery , Aged , Analysis of Variance , Cohort Studies , Disease Progression , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Immunohistochemistry , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasm Invasiveness/pathology , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/mortality , Neoplasm Staging , Paraffin Embedding/methods , Predictive Value of Tests , Probability , Prostatectomy/methods , Prostatic Neoplasms/mortality , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Sensitivity and Specificity , Survival Analysis , Time Factors , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
Multi-dimensional image analysis is being used increasingly to arrive at surrogate end-points for drug development trials. Various imaging modalities such as computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasound are used to analyze treatments for diseases such as cancer, multiple sclerosis, osteoarthritis, and Alzheimer's disease. However, extracting information from images can be tedious and is prone to high user variability. The medical image analysis community is moving towards advanced software systems specifically designed for drug development trials. These systems can automatically identify the anatomy of interest in medical images (segmentation methods), can compare the anatomy over time or between patients (registration methods) and allow the quantitative extraction of anatomical features and the integration of the data and results into a database management system, automatically tracking the changes made to the data (audit trail generation). In this article, we present a case study using a prototype system that is used for quantifying multiple sclerosis lesions from multivariate MRI.
