Perceptions of Responsibility for Antibiotic Resistance: Implications for Stewardship Campaigns.

Widespread public engagement with antibiotic stewardship is essential to stem the rising incidence of antibiotic-resistant infections; however, campaigns that focus on increasing knowledge have not been effective. Beliefs about who is responsible for causing and solving antibiotic resistance (AR) likely influences engagement in antibiotic stewardship behaviors. This study assesses the U.S. public's AR causal and solution responsibility attributions and the capacity for changing these attributions to inform future antibiotic stewardship campaigns. U.S. participants (N= 1,014) diverse across race, education, and geographic region were surveyed on their beliefs about responsibility for AR for themselves, the general public, healthcare providers, scientists, and drug companies. Substantial percentages of participants held causal and solution beliefs about antibiotic resistance that likely inhibit antibiotic stewardship behaviors. Participants' beliefs that they and the general public are responsible for causing and solving AR were lower than their beliefs that healthcare providers, scientists, and drug companies are responsible. Beliefs about causal responsibility for any given person or group were significantly and positively associated with beliefs about solution responsibility for that same person or group. Responsibility beliefs differed by age, education level, and racial/ethnic background. Results highlight the need for antibiotic stewardship campaigns to incorporate responsibility attribution messaging to motivate stewardship.

Monotherapy for toenail onychomycosis: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Onychomycosis is a fungal infection of the nail caused by dermatophytes, yeasts and nondermatophyte moulds that accounts for approximately 50% of all nail-related disease. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess the effectiveness and safety of monotherapy and combination treatments for toenail onychomycosis using a network meta-analysis (NMA). METHODS: Quality of evidence was assessed using Cochrane-compliant rules and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. Efficacy and safety outcomes were compared using a random-effects NMA to estimate pooled odds ratios (ORs) of direct and indirect comparisons among oral and topical treatments (PROSPERO 2015: CRD42018086912). There were not enough eligible combination and device-based therapy trials to include in the NMA. RESULTS: Of 77 randomized controlled trials, 26 were included in the ORs (8136 patients). There were no significant inconsistencies between the direct and indirect evidence. Relative effects show that the odds of mycological cure with continuous terbinafine 250 mg or continuous itraconazole 200 mg are significantly greater than topical treatments. Fluconazole, pulse regimens of terbinafine and itraconazole, and topical treatments did not differ significantly in the odds of achieving mycological cure. The ORs of adverse events occurring with oral or topical treatments were not significantly different from each other. For mycological cure, evidence was of moderate or high quality while evidence ranged from very low to high quality for adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Our review suggests that oral and topical treatments for toenail onychomycosis are safe and effective in producing mycological cure. What's already known about this topic? Topical treatments traditionally have lower success rates than oral treatments. Oral treatments have the advantage of shorter treatment durations, but also present challenges in cases of drug-drug interactions or immunosuppression. A network meta-analysis (NMA) gathers data from indirect evidence to gain confidence about all treatment comparisons and allows for estimation of comparative effects that have not been investigated in head-to-head randomized clinical trials (RCTs). What does this study add? This NMA of efficacy and safety includes all RCTs of oral, topical, combination and device-based treatments for toenail onychomycosis, adhering to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement for NMA. The odds of achieving mycological cure with continuous terbinafine 250 mg or continuous itraconazole 200 mg were significantly greater than topical treatments. Fluconazole, pulse regimens of terbinafine and itraconazole, and topical treatments did not differ significantly in the odds of achieving mycological cure.

The efficacy and safety of pulse vs. continuous therapy for dermatophyte toenail onychomycosis.

BACKGROUND: Onychomycosis is a chronic, fungal infection of the nails. Complete cure remains challenging, but oral antifungal medications have been successful in managing the fungus for a significant proportion of patients. Treatment with these drugs can be continuous or intermittent, albeit the evidence on their relative efficacies remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relative effectiveness and safety of pulse versus continuous administration, of three common oral therapies for dermatophyte onychomycosis, by conducting multiple-treatment meta-analysis. METHODS: This systematic review and network meta-analysis compared the efficacy (as per mycological cure) and adverse event rates of three oral antifungal medications in the treatment of dermatophyte toenail onychomycosis, namely terbinafine, itraconazole and fluconazole. A total of 30 studies were included in the systematic review, while 22 were included in the network meta-analysis. RESULTS: The likelihood of mycological cure was not significantly different between continuous and pulse regimens for each of terbinafine and itraconazole. Use of continuous terbinafine for 24 weeks - but not 12 weeks - was significantly more likely to result in mycological cure than continuous itraconazole for 12 weeks or weekly fluconazole for 9-12 months. Rank probabilities demonstrated that 24-week continuous treatment of terbinafine was the most effective. There were no significant differences in the likelihood of adverse events between any continuous and pulse regimens of terbinafine, itraconazole and fluconazole. Drug treatments were similar to placebo in terms of their likelihood of producing adverse events. CONCLUSION: More knowledge about the fungal life cycle and drugs' pharmacokinetics in nail and plasma could further explain the relative efficacy and safety of the pulse and continuous treatment regimens. Our results indicate that in the treatment of dermatophyte toenail onychomycosis, the continuous and pulse regimens for terbinafine and itraconazole have similar efficacies and rates of adverse events.

Finasteride for androgenetic alopecia is not associated with sexual dysfunction: a survey-based, single-centre, controlled study.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of sexual dysfunction side-effects associated with finasteride use in men with androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is thought to be less prevalent than is publicized. There is a need to investigate sexual dysfunction among finasteride users with population-based controls. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the presence of sexual dysfunction in men using finasteride or not using finasteride. METHOD: Adult men visiting a dermatologist's office for any reason were asked to complete a survey including a modified version of the Arizona Sexual Experience Scale (ASEX) to assess the presence of sexual dysfunction with and without finasteride use. RESULTS: Data from 762 men aged 18-82 were collected: 663 finasteride users and 99 non-finasteride users. There were no significant differences between finasteride users and non-user controls in reporting sexual dysfunction using the ASEX. Regression analysis indicated that self-reporting libido loss and reduced sexual performance, not finasteride use, predict a higher ASEX score. CONCLUSION: The use of finasteride does not result in sexual dysfunction in men with AGA. These data are consistent with other large survey-based controlled studies.

Measuring the Quality of Personal Care in Patients Undergoing Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer.

AIMS: To describe the quality of the non-technical component of the care (personal care) of patients receiving radical radiotherapy for prostate cancer and to identify elements of personal care that should be priorities for quality improvement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred and eight patients undergoing radiotherapy for localised prostate cancer completed a self-administered questionnaire that asked them to rate the importance of 143 non-technical elements of care and to rate the quality of their own care with respect to each element. The elements that a patient rated as both 'very important' and less than 'very good' were deemed to be his priorities for improvement. The priorities of the population were established by ranking the elements based on the percentage of patients who identified them as a priority (importance/quality analysis). RESULTS: The response rate was 65%. The percentage of elements rated 'very good' varied from patient to patient: median 79% (interquartile range 69-92%). The percentage of elements rated either 'very good' or 'good' was higher: median 96% (interquartile range 86-98%). Nonetheless, almost every patient rated at least some elements of his care as less than optimal, regardless of the cut-off point used to define optimal quality. Patients assigned their lowest quality ratings to elements relating to the quality of the treatment environment and comprehensiveness of additional services available to them. However, patients rated most of these elements as relatively unimportant, and importance/quality analysis identified elements of care relating to communication of information about the disease and its treatment as the highest priorities for quality improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients rated most elements of their personal care as very good, but almost all were able to identify some elements that were less than optimal. When ratings of quality were integrated with ratings of importance, elements relating to communication emerged as the patients' highest priorities for quality improvement.

The prevalence of unsuspected onychomycosis and its causative organisms in a multicentre Canadian sample of 30 000 patients visiting physicians' offices.

BACKGROUND: Onychomycosis is difficult to treat and a concern for many patients. Prevalence estimates of onychomycosis in North American clinic samples have been higher than what has been reported for general populations. OBJECTIVE: A large, multicentre study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of toenail onychomycosis in the Canadian population. METHODS: Patients were recruited from the offices of three dermatologists and one family physician in Ontario, Canada. Nail samples for mycological testing were obtained from normal and abnormal-looking nails. This sample of 32 193 patients includes our previous published study of 15 000 patients. RESULTS: Abnormal nails were observed in 4350 patients. Of these, the prevalence of culture-confirmed toenail onychomycosis was estimated to be 6.7% (95% CI, 6.41-6.96%). Following sex and age adjustments for the general population, the estimated prevalence of toenail onychomycosis in Canada was 6.4% (95% CI, 6.12%-6.65%). The distribution of fungal organisms in culture-confirmed onychomycosis was 71.9% dermatophytes, 20.4% non-dermatophyte moulds and 7.6% yeasts. Toenail onychomycosis was four times more prevalent in those over the age of 60 years than below the age of 60 years. CONCLUSION: The present data highlights that onychomycosis may be a growing medical concern among ageing patients.

An open comparative study of nail drilling as adjunctive treatment for toenail onychomycosis (.).

Introduction Novel treatment regimens are being developed to improve drug penetration through the nail plate. This study investigated the efficacy of nail drilling regimens for the treatment of onychomycosis. Methods Participants were assigned to holes with combination (oral plus topical terbinafine) therapy (Group 1), holes with topical terbinafine (Group 2) or topical terbinafine only (Group 3). Measurement of clear nail and mycology was performed at baseline and at weeks 4, 10, 16, 22 and 28. Mixed linear models were used to compare mean percent clear nail. Mycological cure rates were also tabulated for each group. Tolerability and adverse events were documented. Results Ninety-eight participants were enrolled (106 nails). Both groups with holes had significantly higher percentage of clear nail compared with topical terbinafine alone. Although no significant difference between the two groups where holes were drilled in the nail plate, Group 1 demonstrated improvement over Group 3 earlier than Group 2 (visit 2 versus visit 4). Group 1 also had the highest mycological cure rates. Conclusion Treatment with holes plus topical terbinafine produces significantly greater improvement in toenails' appearance and higher mycological cure rates compared to treating the dorsal aspect of the nail plate with topical terbinafine alone.

Tavaborole 5% Solution: A Novel Topical Treatment for Toenail Onychomycosis.

Onychomycosis is a stubborn fungal infection of the nails that can be difficult to effectively manage. One of the challenges with topical therapies is penetrating the nail plate to reach the site of infection. As the first antifungal in a boron-containing class of drugs with a novel mechanism of action, tavaborole is able to penetrate the nail plate more effectively than ciclopirox and amorolfine lacquers. In Phase II/III clinical trials, tavaborole was shown to be safe and clinically effective. Tavaborole 5% solution was approved by the US FDA for the treatment of toenail onychomycosis in July 2014 and is an important addition to the topical treatment arsenal against this stubborn infection.

The prevalence of culture-confirmed toenail onychomycosis in at-risk patient populations.

Onychomycosis is a fungal infection of the nail and is the most common nail affliction in the general population. Certain patient populations are at greater risk of infection and the prevalence of onychomycosis reported in the literature has yet to be summarized across these at-risk groups. We performed a systematic review of the literature and calculated pooled prevalence estimates of onychomycosis in at-risk patient populations. The prevalence of dermatophyte toenail onychomycosis was as follows: general population 3.22% (3.07, 3.38), children 0.14% (0.11, 0.18), the elderly 10.28% (8.63, 12.18), diabetic patients 8.75% (7.48, 10.21), psoriatic patients 10.22% (8.61, 12.09), HIV positive patients 10.40% (8.02, 13.38), dialysis patients 11.93% (7.11, 19.35) and renal transplant patients 5.17% (1.77, 14.14). Dialysis patients had the highest prevalence of onychomycosis caused by dermatophytes, elderly individuals had the highest prevalence of onychomycosis caused by yeasts (6.07%; 95% CI = 3.58, 10.11) and psoriatic patients had the highest prevalence of onychomycosis caused by non-dermatophyte moulds (2.49%; 95% CI = 1.74, 3.55). An increased prevalence of onychomycosis in certain patient populations may be attributed to impaired immunity, reduced peripheral circulation and alterations to the nail plate which render these patients more susceptible to infection.

Pain and somatic symptoms are sequelae of sexual assault: results of a prospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional studies have shown that chronic musculoskeletal pain and somatic symptoms are frequently reported by sexual assault (SA) survivors; however, prospective studies examining pain and somatic symptoms in the months after SA have not been performed. METHODS: Women SA survivors 18 years of age or older who presented for care within 48 h of SA were recruited. Pain in eight body regions (head and face, neck, breast, arms, abdomen, back, genital and pelvic, and legs) and 21 common somatic symptoms (e.g., headache, nausea, insomnia, persistent fatigue) were assessed (0-10 numeric rating scale in each body region) at the time of presentation, 1-week, 6-week and 3-month interview. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms were assessed at the 6-week and 3-month interview. RESULTS: Clinically significant new or worsening pain (CSNWP) symptoms were common among study participants 6 weeks after SA [43/74, 58% (95% CI, 47-69%)] and 3 months after SA [40/67, 60% (95% CI, 48-71%)] and generally occurred in regions not experiencing trauma. Women SA survivors also experienced an increased burden of many common somatic symptoms: 8/21 (38%) and 11/21 (52%) common somatic symptoms showed a significant increase in severity 6 weeks and 3 months after SA, respectively. Correlations between PTSD, CSNWP and somatic symptoms were only low to moderate, suggesting that these outcomes are distinct. CONCLUSIONS: New and/or clinically worsening pain and somatic symptoms, lasting at least 3 months, are sequelae of SA. Further studies investigating pain and somatic symptoms after SA are needed.

Costs of early adjuvant radiation therapy after radical prostatectomy: a decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: This analysis was carried out to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant radiation therapy (ART) versus observation, using a decision analysis model based primarily upon the published results of the Southwest Oncology Group prospective trial (SWOG 8794). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A decision analysis model was designed to compare ART versus observation over a 10-year time horizon. Probabilities of treatment success, utilization of salvage treatments, and rates of adverse events were taken from published results of SWOG 8794. Cost inputs were based on 2010 Medicare reimbursement rates. Primary outcome measure was incremental cost per prostate-specific antigen (PSA) success (i.e. serum PSA level <0.4 ng/ml). RESULTS: ART results in a higher PSA success rate than observation with probability of 0.43 versus 0.22. The mean incremental cost per patient for ART versus observation was $6023. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $26,983 over the 10-year period. CONCLUSIONS: ART appears cost effective compared with observation based upon this decision analysis model. Future research should consider more costly radiation therapy (RT) approaches, such as intensity-modulated RT, and should evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ART versus early salvage RT.

Adherence and persistence with teriparatide among patients with commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid insurance.

UNLABELLED: Adherence to, and persistence with, treatments for osteoporosis are low. Adherence with teriparatide decreases over time. Higher copayments in the commercial/Medicare population were associated with worse persistence. Understanding factors such as prior screening, prior treatment history, and out of pocket costs that influence persistence with teriparatide may help clinicians make informed decisions. INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to evaluate adherence and persistence with teriparatide. METHODS: Beneficiaries with at least one claim for teriparatide in 2003 or 2004 and continuous enrollment in the previous 12 months and subsequent 6 months were identified in a national commercial/Medicare and Medicaid administrative claims database (MarketScan®). Adherence was assessed through calculation of the medication possession ratio (MPR). Persistence was measured by time until discontinuation and time until first 60-day gap in treatment. Factors associated with persistence were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The average MPR at 6 months was 0.74 (N=2,218) and at 12 months, was 0.66 (N=1,303). At 6 months, 64.6% of patients remained on therapy and at 12 months, 56.7% remained. Bone mineral density screening and use of antiresorptive therapy within the 12 months pre-period, and lower patient copayments were associated with increased persistence. CONCLUSION: Patients appear to have good adherence with teriparatide over the first 6 months which declines over time. Prior screening and treatment of osteoporosis and out of pocket costs appear to impact persistence. To optimize patient outcomes, clinicians should consider clinical factors that impact persistence, while healthcare decision makers should consider the negative effect of higher patient copayments on persistence.

Clinical and economic impact of infusion reactions in patients with colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab.

BACKGROUND: Systemic agents in cancer treatment were often associated with possible infusion reactions (IRs). This study estimated the incidence of IRs requiring medical intervention and assessed the clinical and economic impacts of IRs in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) treated with cetuximab. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Details on patients with CRC receiving cetuximab in 2004-2006 were extracted from a large USA administrative claims database. IRs were identified based on the occurrence of outpatient treatment, emergency room (ER) visit, and/or hospitalization for hypersensitivity and allergic reactions. Multivariate regressions were used to examine potential risk factors and quantify the economic impact of IRs. RESULTS: A total of 1122 CRC patients receiving cetuximab were identified. The incidence of IRs requiring medical intervention was 8.4%. Sixty-eight percent of the patients had treatment disruptions and 34% discontinued cetuximab treatment. Mean adjusted costs were $13,863 for cetuximab administrations with an IR requiring ER visit or hospitalization and $6280 for those with an IR requiring outpatient treatment, compared with $4555 for those without an IR. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of cetuximab-related IRs requiring medical intervention in clinical practice was found to be higher than rates reported in the product label and clinical trials. The clinical and economic impacts of these IRs are substantial.

Characteristics of patients initiating teriparatide for the treatment of osteoporosis.

UNLABELLED: The demographic and clinical characteristics of patients initiating teriparatide were compared with those of patients initiating bisphosphonates for the treatment of osteoporosis. In these samples of commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients, patients initiating teriparatide were older, in poorer health, and appeared to have more severe osteoporosis than patients initiating bisphosphonates. INTRODUCTION: The demographic and clinical characteristics of patients initiating teriparatide are compared with those of patients initiating bisphosphonates. METHODS: Beneficiaries (45 years and older) with at least one claim for teriparatide or a bisphosphonate from 2003 to 2005 and continuous enrollment in the previous 12 months and subsequent 6 months were identified from commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid administrative claims databases. Patients initiating teriparatide (commercial/Medicare (N = 2,218); Medicaid (N = 824)) were compared to patients initiating bisphosphonates (commercial/Medicare (N = 97,570); Medicaid (N = 77,526)) in terms of age, provider specialty, comorbidities, prior use of osteoporosis medications, fractures, BMD screening, health status, and resource utilization. RESULTS: Teriparatide patients were older and in poorer health than bisphosphonate patients. Approximately 38% of teriparatide patients in both groups had fractured in the pre-period compared to 16% of commercial/Medicare and 15% of Medicaid bisphosphonate patients. Teriparatide patients were more likely to have used osteoporosis medications in the pre-period (79.9% versus 32.1% (commercial/Medicare); 82.2% versus 19.6% (Medicaid)). CONCLUSIONS: In these samples of patients, those initiating teriparatide differed from those initiating bisphosphonates. Teriparatide patients were older, in poorer health, and appeared to have more severe osteoporosis than bisphosphonate patients. Comparisons of treatment outcomes should take these differences in patient characteristics into consideration.

Identification of neural pathways involved in genital reflexes in the female: a combined anterograde and retrograde tracing study.

The medial preoptic area (MPOA) is important for reproductive behavior in females. However, the descending pathways mediating these responses to the spinal motor output are unknown. The MPOA does not directly innervate the spinal cord. Therefore, pathways mediating MPOA-induced changes in sexual behavior must relay in the brain. The nucleus paragigantocellularis (nPGi) projects heavily to spinal circuits involved in female sexual reflexes and is involved in the tonic inhibition of genital reflexes. However, the periaqueductal gray (PAG) is also important for female sexual behavior. The present study examined the hypothesis that the MPOA output relays through PAG and the nPGi before descending to the spinal cord. We used anterograde and retrograde tracing techniques to examine the descending pathways and relay sites from the MPOA to the spinal cord and the nPGi in the female rat. Injection of biotinylated dextran amine into the MPOA produced dense labeling in specific regions of the PAG and Barrington's nucleus; anterogradely labeled fibers terminated close to neurons retrogradely labeled from the spinal cord in the PAG, Barrington's nucleus, nPGi, lateral hypothalamus and paraventricular nucleus (PVN). Anterogradely labeled fibers and varicosities were also found close to neurons retrogradely labeled from the nPGi in the PAG, lateral hypothalamus and PVN. These results suggest that the major MPOA output relays in the PAG and nPGi before descending to innervate spinal circuits regulating female genital reflexes and that the MPOA plays a multifaceted role in female reproductive behavior through its modulation of PAG output systems.

Retroperitoneoscopic nephrectomy: the experience of an Irish teaching hospital.

BACKGROUND: Since its introduction, laparoscopic nephrectomy is increasingly being used worldwide as a method of removing the kidney, both in benign disease and in small volume tumours. To our knowledge, we are the first surgeons in Ireland to perform this procedure with results that support its use in select cases. AIMS: We looked at 12 cases of retroperitoneal laparoscopic nephrectomy, which we carried out over a five-year period. METHODS: Of the 12 cases performed, five were for renal cell carcinoma and seven were for benign disease. Regarding patients with carcinoma, careful patient selection was based on physical examination, biochemical renal profile and tumour stage. RESULTS: Mean tumour size was 3.3cm. Mean specimen weight was 184g (carcinoma) and 42g (benign). Mean surgical time was 90 minutes and average blood loss was 45ml. Average length of hospital stay was 3.5 days. No major complications occurred. Follow-up of those with renal cell carcinoma revealed all to be tumour-free and renal profile studies of all patients fell within the normal range for all parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support previous reports that recommend laparoscopic nephrectomy as a method for removing kidneys with benign disease or with small volume carcinomas.

Cost comparison of state hospital and community-based care for seriously mentally ill adults.

OBJECTIVE: In 1989, Philadelphia began a bold experiment involving the total shutdown of a 500-bed state hospital. This study examines the service utilization and cost of treating individuals with serious mental illness in a community-based care system in which the state hospital was replaced with 60 extended acute care beds in general hospitals and 583 residential beds. METHOD: A pre-post study design was used to determine the utilization and cost differences before and after the state hospital closed for individuals with a diagnosis of schizophrenia who required extended psychiatric hospitalization following an acute care crisis episode in a general hospital. The number and cost of days spent in general and in extended hospital and residential treatment were compared on an episode and an annual basis. RESULTS: The results of this analysis showed that after the state hospital closed, the direct treatment cost of an episode of care increased from $68,446 to $78,929, and the average annual cost of care per patient increased from $48,631 to $66,794 because of an increase in acute care hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that an "admission" cohort of seriously mentally ill patients requires an optimal mix of acute care, extended care, and residential beds, as well as ambulatory services, in order for cost-efficient care to be delivered during a crisis period. Determining the appropriate allocation and supply of beds in different settings is essential if community mental health systems are to manage the care of individuals with serious mental illness outside of institutional settings.

Cost savings from home and community-based services: Arizona's capitated Medicaid long-term care program.

The Arizona Long-Term Care System is the first capitated, long-term care Medicaid program in the nation to operate statewide. It promotes an extensive home and community-based services program intended to lower long-term care costs by substituting home care for institutional care. Because the program is statewide, finding a suitable control group to evaluate it was a serious problem. A substitute strategy was chosen that compares actual costs incurred to an estimate of what costs would have been in the absence of home and community-based (HCB) services. To estimate the likelihood of institutionalizing clients in the absence of HCB services, coefficients for institutionalization risk factors were estimated in a logistic regression model developed using national data. These were applied to characteristics of Arizona clients. The model assigned approximately 75 percent of the program's clients to a category with traits that were determined to resemble nursing home residents' traits. A similar methodology was used to estimate lengths of nursing home stays. Lengths of stay by the program's nursing home patients were regressed on their characteristics using an event history analysis model. Coefficients for these characteristics from the regression analysis were then applied to HCB services clients to estimate how long their nursing home stays would have lasted, had they been institutionalized. These estimated nursing home stays were generally shorter than these same patients' observed home and community stays. Risk of institutionalization was then multiplied by estimated length of stay and by monthly nursing home costs to estimate what costs would have been without the HCB services option. The expected costs were compared to actual costs to judge cost savings. Home and community-based services appeared to save substantial amounts on costs of nursing home care. Estimates of savings were very robust and did not appear to be declining as the program matured. Savings probably came from several sources: the assessment teams that judged client eligibility were employed by a state agency and thus were independent from the program contractors; clients were required to be in need of at least a three-month nursing home stay; a cap was placed on the number of HCB services clients contractors were allowed to serve each month; the capitated payment methodology forced managed care contractors to hold down average HCB services costs or lose money; and the HCB services and nursing home costs were blended in the capitated rate, so that plans that failed to place clients in HCB services would lose money by using more nursing home days than their monthly capitated rate allowed.