A quantile panel examination of the moderation effects of guardianship on residential burglary.

Do informal and formal mechanisms of guardianship work together to reduce residential burglary? In this article we argue that informal guardianship moderates the relationship between formal mechanisms of guardianship and residential burglary. Formal guardianship requires some level of social cohesion and trust to be effective against residential burglary. We test this argument with the use of robust panel quantile methods controlling for time effects, spatial effects, and alternative explanations. Using Mexico City neighborhood crime and census data, we show evidence of a moderating weakening effect of informal guardianship on the previous relationship, particularly in deprived neighborhoods and only in the upper quantiles of the residential burglary distribution. In addition, the moderation effects seem to have weakened over time. In sum, the combination of guardianship mechanisms seems to have been more effective in high burglary risk deprived neighborhoods, although their combination seems to have become less relevant.

Virus containment measures and homicide in Mexico: An assessment of community strain theory.

Objectives: This study examined whether Covid-19 virus containment measures moderated the relationship between community strain and homicide rates in Mexico City neighborhoods and police quadrants. Methods: We tested the moderation effects hypothesis with the use of a mixed-effects regression to estimate fixed effects with random effects at different levels of aggregation. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess whether results of the moderation effects were affected by changes in the unit of analysis. Results: We found no evidence that virus containment measures moderated the relationship between community strain and observed changes in homicide rates. Moreover, although community strain measures were found to be statistically associated with homicide rates, the results were seemingly affected by the Modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). Conclusions: First, the link being made in the literature between the homicide drop and the Covid-19 pandemic based on strain theory premises has no universal empirical basis. Second, although homicide rates dropped on average after containment measures were implemented, these had different effects across places, making arguments based on overall average change inexact. Third, we find evidence that community strain can predict homicide rates, but results are sensitive to the MAUP. Thus, community strain explanations of homicide rates may only apply in some areas of cities and conditional on the unit of analysis.

Corona crimes: How pandemic narratives change criminal landscapes.

The epidemic psychology of pandemics creates an atmosphere of panic and fear that can expedite new laws and facilitate criminogenic narrative arousal. Using narrative criminology, we discuss crimes that emerged from pandemic narratives in the early phases of the disease in Mexico. We show how pandemic master narratives have unexpected criminogenic effects; can be negotiated to make them criminogenic; and are opposed by more fundamentally criminogenic counter-narratives. We also show how pandemics repurpose justifications for traditional crimes and offer an opportunity for narrative repositioning of "criminals". Societal crises intensify the continuous narrative negotiation that always underlies the meaning of crime. Pandemics can therefore act as a prism through which social scientists can see how crime is an ongoing narrative accomplishment.

Identifying archetypal cannabis consumers to inform drug policy design: a Q-sort assessment of young adults' attitudes in Mexico City's metropolitan area.

BACKGROUND: As the legalization of cannabis moves forward in many countries, it is important to highlight the potential harm that excessive use can cause on young consumers. Crafting effective policy interventions to reduce the harm stemming from excessive use requires an understanding of the attitudes and motivations of young consumers. METHODS: This article uses Q methodology to study four aspects of cannabis use among young adults from Mexico City's metropolitan area: motivations for use, perceived consequences of use, reasons that would increase willingness to reduce consumption, and attitudes towards government regulation. A total of 110 cannabis users between 18 and 21 years old were recruited using chain-referral sampling. Using a Q methodology, we captured the relative importance that participants assigned to a series of statements and identified archetypal profiles of young adults who use cannabis for each of the four aspects mentioned above. RESULTS: The sample for this research study included 76 men and 34 women. The average age of participants was 20 years old, and the average age when cannabis consumption started was 15 years old. For each of the four Q-sort factor analyses, we identified 4 distinct factors based on explained variance and interpretability. The Q factor analysis indicated that attenuation of a negative affect (i.e., anxiety, stress) and relaxation were primary motivations for cannabis use. Understood consequences of cannabis use ranged across aspect-archetype, reflecting legal (i.e., interacting with law enforcement), financial, familial (i.e., disappointing family members), and educational performance concerns. Participants indicated that finding alternative relaxation strategies, receiving credible evidence of the health harms of cannabis use, increased financial burden of purchasing, and increased inaccessibility of cannabis products would motivate reductions in use. Across archetypes, participants indicated a willingness to comply with cannabis policies which are simple and easy to understand, which do not lead to discrimination or law enforcement involvement, and which provide for legal places to purchase and use safe (i.e., free of adulterants) cannabis products. CONCLUSIONS: We posit that these archetypes could be useful to inform cannabis policy design. As the study reveals, participants' cannabis use was primarily motivated by perceived improvements to mental health. Furthermore, participant responses indicated that they viewed cannabis use as a health matter, not a criminal one. Policies which aim to promote alternative mental health wellness and relaxation mechanisms, which aim to improve communication of potential health harms of cannabis, and which allow for the safe and legal purchase and use of cannabis may be effective in reducing cannabis-associated harms. Though our findings shed light on important aspects of cannabis users' attitudes and perspectives, the sample size does not allow for a generalization of the findings and the drawing of conclusions about the population under scrutiny. Further research should consider the application of the Q methodology used in this article to a larger and more representative sample of cannabis users.