Impact of the dog population and household environment for the maintenance of natural foci of Leishmania infantum transmission to human and animal hosts in endemic areas for visceral leishmaniasis in Sao Paulo state, Brazil.

When it comes to visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil, one of the main targets of public health policies of surveillance is the control of domestic canine reservoirs of Leishmania infantum. This paper aims to evaluate the effect of the dog population and household environment for the maintenance of natural foci in the transmission to human and animal hosts in an endemic city for VL, Bauru, in Brazil. We collected 6,578 blood samples of dogs living in 3,916 households from Nov.2019 to Mar.2020 and applied geospatial models to predict the disease risk based on the canine population. We used Kernel density estimation, cluster analysis, geostatistics, and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). To validate our models, we used cross-validation and created a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We found an overall canine VL (CVL) seroprevalence of 5.6% for the sampled dogs, while for the households, the positivity rate was 8.7%. Odds ratios (OR) for CVL increased progressively according to the number of canines for >2 dogs (OR 2.70); households that already had CVL in the past increased the chances for CVL currently (OR 2.73); and the cases of CVL increase the chances for human VL cases (OR 1.16). Our models were statistically significant and demonstrated a spatial association between canine and human disease cases, mainly in VL foci that remain endemic. Although the Kernel density ratio map had the best performance (AUC = 82), all the models showed high risk in the city's northwest area. Canine population dynamics must be considered in public policies, and geospatial methods may help target priority areas and planning VL surveillance in low and middle-income countries.

Double Trouble: Dengue Followed by COVID-19 Infection Acquired in Two Different Regions: A Doctor's Case Report and Spatial Distribution of Cases in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo, Brazil.

Co-epidemics of COVID-19 and dengue in dengue-endemic countries represent a serious public health concern. In Brazil, São Paulo state ranks first for cases and deaths from COVID-19, and dengue is endemic in most regions of the country. In 2020, an outbreak of dengue occurred in western São Paulo. We determined the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue in the context of COVID-19 cases in Presidente Prudente, a mid-sized city in western São Paulo. To illustrate the burden of both infections, a case report of a doctor and his family, infected with dengue and COVID-19, is presented. There were three clusters of dengue and COVID-19 in the periphery. A dengue cluster was found in a region where there were no corresponding COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, there were COVID-19 clusters where dengue activity was lower. In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic emerged when dengue reached its seasonal peak, resulting in a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases. Lower rates of dengue were found in the city compared with 2019, and the fear of patients with mild dengue symptoms about remaining in hospital and acquiring COVID-19 infection may be the main cause. Simultaneous spatial clusters of dengue and COVID-19 in environmentally and socioeconomically vulnerable areas can guide public health authorities in intensive interventions to improve clinical diagnosis, epidemiological surveillance, and management of both diseases. The patient and his family were first infected with dengue and he then carried COVID-19 to his family, reinforcing the risk of health care workers spreading the virus to the community. We highlight the epidemiological significance of presenting a case report and spatial analysis of COVID-19 in the same study in the context of a dengue outbreak.

Tuberculosis space-temporal distribution from 2011 to 2016 in the municipality of Maputo, Mozambique / Distribución espacio-temporal de la tuberculosis de 2011 al 2016 en el municipio de Maputo, Mozambique

Abstract: Objective: Carry out a spatial-temporal characterization of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Maputo, Mozambique. Method: a descriptive ecological study of tuberculosis cases reported in an information system. The annual mean incidence rate and the number of TB notification cases in the municipality of Maputo from 2011 to 2016 were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were used with calculations of measures of central tendency (mean) and an application of the Poisson linear regression model. Trimester notifications were stratified by district, clinical form, and age group. The quarterly average temperature of the evaluated area was added as a covariate in the model seasonal. Results: 34,623 TB cases were notified from 2011 to 2016, with a trimester average of 1,443 cases. The average annual incidence was higher in the Kampfumo district, with 909.8 per 100 thousand inhabitants (95% CI 854.1 - 968.2); almost twice as much as the incidence of the municipality of Maputo, 527.8 (95% CI 514, 3-541.6), and the country of Mozambique, 551 (95% CI 356 - 787). The clinical diagnosis of the tested cases was higher concerning the bacteriological diagnosis; 44%, and 35%, respectively. Conclusion: Maputo had similar incidence rates to the country of Mozambique, however, there was a heterogeneity rate by district and a reduction in the number of TB cases in both the general population (not co-infected with HIV) and those over 15 years old, being higher in the first trimester.

Resumen: Objetivo: realizar una caracterización espacio-temporal de la incidencia de tuberculosis (TB) en Maputo, Mozambique. Método: estudio ecológico descriptivo de casos de tuberculosis reportados en un sistema de información. Se analizó la tasa de incidencia media anual y el número de casos de notificación de TB en el municipio de Maputo entre 2011 y 2016. Se utilizó estadística descriptiva para calcular las medidas de tendencia central (media) y la aplicación del modelo de regresión lineal de Poisson Las notificaciones trimestrales se estratificaron por distrito, forma clínica y grupo de edad. Resultados: se notificaron 34,623 casos de TB entre 2011 y 2016, con un promedio trimestral de 1,443 casos. La incidencia anual promedio fue mayor en el distrito de Kampfumo, 909.8 por cada 100 mil habitantes (IC 95% 854.1 - 968.2), casi el doble que la incidencia del municipio de Maputo, 527.8 (IC 95% 514 , 3-541.6), y el país de Mozambique, 551 (95% CI 356 - 787). El diagnóstico clínico de los casos fue mayor en relación al diagnóstico bacteriológico, 44% y 35%, respectivamente. Conclusión: Maputo tuvo tasas de incidencia similares a las del país, sin embargo, hubo una heterogeneidad en las tasas por distrito y una reducción en el número de casos de TB en la población general (no coinfectados con VIH) y en los mayores de 15 años, siendo mayores en el primer trimestre.

Predicted distribution of sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) species involved in the transmission of Leishmaniasis in São Paulo state, Brazil, utilizing maximum entropy ecological niche modeling.

Leishmaniasis is a public health problem worldwide. We aimed to predict ecological niche models (ENMs) for visceral (VL) and cutaneous (CL) leishmaniasis and the sand flies involved in the transmission of leishmaniasis in São Paulo, Brazil. Phlebotomine sand flies were collected between 1985 and 2015. ENMs were created for each sand fly species using Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling software, and 20 climatic variables were determined. Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) and Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912), the primary vectors involved in CL and VL, displayed the highest suitability across the various regions, climates, and topographies. L. longipalpis was found in the border of Paraná an area currently free of VL. The variables with the greatest impact were temperature seasonality, precipitation, and altitude. Co-presence of multiple sand fly species was observed in the cuestas and coastal areas along the border of Paraná and in the western basalt areas along the border of Mato Grosso do Sul. Human CL and VL were found in 475 of 546 (86.7%) and 106 of 645 (16.4%) of municipalities, respectively. Niche overlap between N. intermedia and L. longipalpis was found with 9208 human cases of CL and 2952 cases of VL. ENMs demonstrated that each phlebotomine sand fly species has a unique geographic distribution pattern, and the occurrence of the primary vectors of CL and VL overlapped. These data can be used by public authorities to monitor the dispersion and expansion of CL and VL vectors in São Paulo state.

Environmental risk factors of leishmaniasis in Bahia State, Brazil using NASA Earth observation satellites / Fatores de risco ambientais para leishmanioses no estado da Bahia, Brasil, utilizando satélites da NASA de observação da Terra

NASA's Earth Observing Satellites (EOS) were used to calculate three vegetation indices, extract precipitation and elevation data, and then evaluate their applicability for assessing risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Bahia State, Brazil. Regression models showed that either form of leishmaniasis can be predicted by NDVI, NDMI, NDWI data products and TRMM) precipitation data (R2= 0.370; p<0.001). Elevation was not significantly associated with the distribution of either VL or CL. In areas of high annual precipitation, CL was 3.6 times more likely to occur than VL. For vegetative moisture (NDMI), CL was 2.11 times more likely to occur than VL. Odds of CL occurrence increased to 5.5 times when vegetation (NDVI) and 13.5 times when liquid water content of vegetation canopies (NDWI) was considered. Areas at risk of CL and VL were mapped based on the selected explanatory variables. Accuracy of models were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC=0.72). We propose that statewide scale risk models based on use of EOS products will be a useful tool at 1 km2 spatial resolution to enable health workers to identify and target high risk areas to prevent transmission of leishmaniasis.(AU)

Os satélites de observação da Terra (SOT) da NASA foram usados para calcular três índices de vegetação, extrair dados de precipitação e elevação e avaliar sua aplicabilidade para identificar o risco para leishmaniose visceral (LV) e leishmaniose tegumentar (LT) no Estado da Bahia, Brasil. Modelos de regressão mostraram que ambas as formas de leishmaniose podem ser preditas pelos NDVI, NDMI, NDWI e precipitação TRMM (R2 = 0,370; p<0,001). A elevação não foi significativamente associada à distribuição de LV ou LT. Em áreas de alta precipitação anual, a LT foi 3,6 vezes mais provável de ocorrer do que a LV. Para a umidade vegetativa (NDMI), a LT apresentou 2,11 maior probabilidade de ocorrer do que a LV. As chances de ocorrência de LT aumentaram para 5,5 vezes em relação com a vegetação (NDVI) e 13,5 vezes quando o conteúdo de água líquida dos dosséis da vegetação (NDWI) foi considerado. Áreas em risco de LT e LV foram mapeadas com base nas variáveis explicativas selecionadas. A precisão dos modelos foi avaliada usando a área sob curva característica de operação do receptor (Curva COR=0,72). Propusemos que os modelos de risco em escala estadual baseados no uso de produtos SOT são uma ferramenta útil na resolução espacial de 1 km2 por permitir que profissionais de saúde identifiquem e direcionem áreas de alto risco para evitar a transmissão da leishmaniose. (AU)

Environmental risk factors of leishmaniasis in Bahia State, Brazil using NASA Earth observation satellites / Fatores de risco ambientais para leishmanioses no estado da Bahia, Brasil, utilizando satélites da NASA de observação da Terra

NASA’s Earth Observing Satellites (EOS) were used to calculate three vegetation indices, extract precipitation and elevation data, and then evaluate their applicability for assessing risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Bahia State, Brazil. Regression models showed that either form of leishmaniasis can be predicted by NDVI, NDMI, NDWI data products and TRMM) precipitation data (R2 = 0.370; p<0.001). Elevation was not significantly associated with the distribution of either VL or CL. In areas of high annual precipitation, CL was 3.6 times more likely to occur than VL. For vegetative moisture (NDMI), CL was 2.11 times more likely to occur than VL. Odds of CL occurrence increased to 5.5 times when vegetation (NDVI) and 13.5 times when liquid water content of vegetation canopies (NDWI) was considered. Areas at risk of CL and VL were mapped based on the selected explanatory variables. Accuracy of models were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC=0.72). We propose that statewide scale risk models based on use of EOS products will be a useful tool at 1 km2 spatial resolution to enable health workers to identify and target high risk areas to prevent transmission of leishmaniasis.

Os satélites de observação da Terra (SOT) da NASA foram usados para calcular três índices de vegetação, extrair dados de precipitação e elevação e avaliar sua aplicabilidade para identificar o risco para leishmaniose visceral (LV) e leishmaniose tegumentar (LT) no Estado da Bahia, Brasil. Modelos de regressão mostraram que ambas as formas de leishmaniose podem ser preditas pelos NDVI, NDMI, NDWI e precipitação TRMM (R2 = 0,370; p<0,001). A elevação não foi significativamente associada à distribuição de LV ou LT. Em áreas de alta precipitação anual, a LT foi 3,6 vezes mais provável de ocorrer do que a LV. Para a umidade vegetativa (NDMI), a LT apresentou 2,11 maior probabilidade de ocorrer do que a LV. As chances de ocorrência de LT aumentaram para 5,5 vezes em relação com a vegetação (NDVI) e 13,5 vezes quando o conteúdo de água líquida dos dosséis da vegetação (NDWI) foi considerado. Áreas em risco de LT e LV foram mapeadas com base nas variáveis explicativas selecionadas. A precisão dos modelos foi avaliada usando a área sob curva característica de operação do receptor (Curva COR=0,72). Propusemos que os modelos de risco em escala estadual baseados no uso de produtos SOT são uma ferramenta útil na resolução espacial de 1 km2 por permitir que profissionais de saúde identifiquem e direcionem áreas de alto risco para evitar a transmissão da leishmaniose.

Geospatial and modeling tools for leishmaniasis studies: a review of publication between 2008-2018

Aspects of how geospatial technologies can be used on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) control programs are discussed. We reviewed a number of papers discussing the usage of those technologies, through a PubMed literature review. Additionally, we provided conceptual elements for a development of a hierarchical scale framework on VL for decision making in São Paulo State, using Geographical Information Systems. Supported by Geospatial Techniques, we developed a view of some instruments for helping communities to better manage their risk areas. We used a classification called Strengths of GIS and Spatial Analysis in Epidemiology (SGISSAE). This review identified 50 papers published in the PubMed. With respect to developing the theoretical perspective, this paper can help to identify points of deficiency in shortage in discussions and leishmaniasis control programs, which led us to recommend future to delimitation studies to at community-based level and to define local actions to identify and manage the disease. In the conceptual framework data at community-based level will allow us to understand more broadly the changing spatial distribution of the disease.(AU)

Aspectos sobre como as tecnologias geoespaciais podem ser usadas nos programas de controle da leishmaniose visceral (LV) são discutidos. Nós confrontamos uma série de artigos discutindo o uso dessas tecnologias, através de uma revisão da literatura no PudMed. Adicionalmente, fornecemos elementos conceituais para o desenvolvimento de uma estrutura hierárquica sobre a escala na tomada de decisão sobre a leishmaniose no Estado de São Paulo, utilizando Sistemas de Informação Geográfica. Com o apoio das técnicas geoespaciais, desenvolvemos alguns instrumentos para ajudar as comunidades a gerenciar melhor suas áreas de risco. Usamos uma classificação chamada Forças do SIG e da análise espacial em Epidemiologia (SGISSAE). A revisão nos permitiu selecionar 50 artigos publicados no PubMed. Com relação ao desenvolvimento da perspectiva teórica, este artigo pode ajudar a identificar pontos de deficiência em discussões e programas de controle da leishmaniose, o que nos levou a recomendar futuros estudos de delimitação a nível comunitário e a definir ações locais para identificar e gerenciar a doença. No quadro conceptual, os dados ao nível da comunidade permitirão compreender mais amplamente a evolução da distribuição espacial da doença. (AU)

Geospatial and modeling tools for leishmaniasis studies: a review of publication between 2008-2018 / Ferramentas geoespaciais e de modelagem para estudos de leishmaniose: uma revisão de publicação entre 2008-2018

Aspects of how geospatial technologies can be used on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) control programs are discussed. We reviewed a number of papers discussing the usage of those technologies, through a PubMed literature review. Additionally, we provided conceptual elements for a development of a hierarchical scale framework on VL for decision making in São Paulo State, using Geographical Information Systems. Supported by Geospatial Techniques, we developed a view of some instruments for helping communities to better manage their risk areas. We used a classification called Strengths of GIS and Spatial Analysis in Epidemiology (SGISSAE). This review identified 50 papers published in the PubMed. With respect to developing the theoretical perspective, this paper can help to identify points of deficiency in shortage in discussions and leishmaniasis control programs, which led us to recommend future to delimitation studies to at community-based level and to define local actions to identify and manage the disease. In the conceptual framework data at community-based level will allow us to understand more broadly the changing spatial distribution of the disease.

Aspectos sobre como as tecnologias geoespaciais podem ser usadas nos programas de controle da leishmaniose visceral (LV) são discutidos. Nós confrontamos uma série de artigos discutindo o uso dessas tecnologias, através de uma revisão da literatura no PudMed. Adicionalmente, fornecemos elementos conceituais para o desenvolvimento de uma estrutura hierárquica sobre a escala na tomada de decisão sobre a leishmaniose no Estado de São Paulo, utilizando Sistemas de Informação Geográfica. Com o apoio das técnicas geoespaciais, desenvolvemos alguns instrumentos para ajudar as comunidades a gerenciar melhor suas áreas de risco. Usamos uma classificação chamada Forças do SIG e da análise espacial em Epidemiologia (SGISSAE). A revisão nos permitiu selecionar 50 artigos publicados no PubMed. Com relação ao desenvolvimento da perspectiva teórica, este artigo pode ajudar a identificar pontos de deficiência em discussões e programas de controle da leishmaniose, o que nos levou a recomendar futuros estudos de delimitação a nível comunitário e a definir ações locais para identificar e gerenciar a doença. No quadro conceptual, os dados ao nível da comunidade permitirão compreender mais amplamente a evolução da distribuição espacial da doença.

The shadows of a ghost: a survey of canine leishmaniasis in Presidente Prudente and its spatial dispersion in the western region of São Paulo state, an emerging focus of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis is an emerging zoonosis and its geographic distribution is restricted to tropical and temperate regions. Most of the individuals infected in Latin America are in Brazil. Despite the control measures that have been adopted, the disease is spreading throughout new regions of the country. Domestic dogs are involved in the transmission cycle and are considered to be the main epidemiologic reservoir of Leishmania infantum (syn. L. chagasi). Our aim was to determine the prevalence of canine leishmaniasis (CL) and Ehrlichiosis infection in Presidente Prudente as well as the spatial dispersion of the disease in the western region of São Paulo state. METHODS: Dogs underwent clinical examination and symptoms related to CL were recorded. Anti- Leishmania antibodies were detected using ELISA, rK39-immunocromatographic tests (DPP), and an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT). Anti-E. canis antibodies were detected by IFAT. A follow-up was conducted in dogs that were positive in the ELISA at the baseline study. Data on the spatial distribution of L. longipalpis and CL in São Paulo state were obtained from Brazilian public health agencies. RESULTS: Serum samples from 4547 dogs were analyzed. The seroprevalence of CL was 11.2% by ELISA and 4.5 % by IFAT. In the follow-up, seroprevalence was 32.9% by ELISA, 15.3% by IFAT, 11.8 % by DPP test, and 66.5% for E. canis. There was a significant positive association between Leishmania and E. canis infection (P < 0.0001). In the follow-up, clinical examinations revealed symptoms compatible with CL in 33.5% of the dogs. L. longipalpis was found in 24 and CL in 15 counties of the Presidente Prudente mesoregion. The dispersion route followed the west frontier of São Paulo state toward Paraná state. CONCLUSIONS: Low CL and high ehrlichiosis prevalence rates were found in Presidente Prudente city. This emerging focus of CL is moving through the western region of São Paulo state toward the border of Paraná state. Integrated actions to fight the vector, parasites, infected dogs, and humans are needed to monitor the disease and implement strategies for epidemiologic control.

Spatial epidemiology of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a municipality of west São Paulo State, Brazil.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: In the last decade, in the state of São Paulo, 5898 cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) were reported. This study was undertaken to analyze the epidemiology of CL in the municipality of Teodoro Sampaio, in São Paulo State, Brazil, based on a geographic approach, as very little is known of the relationship between CL and the spatial transformation process. METHODS: This is a population-based quantitative, descriptive and cross-sectional case study. Surveys of the official notifications in the healthcare center and official sources from 1998 to 2011 were analysed. The data were described based on statistics and the Kernel method to detect hotspots of transmission. RESULTS: The age group between 21 and 40 yr was most affected, with 24 cases (57.9%). Of the 41 cases reported between 1998 and 2011, 33 cases were having low education status and 31 cases (75.6%) were males. The spatial and temporal distribution was aggregated in three-year periods which permitted the identification of two microfoci, in periods I (1998-2000) and III (2005-2007). INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: The disease has presented, in recent years, a pattern of sporadic transmission or microfoci, and continues to maintain enzootic cycles of Leishmania in a sylvatic environment, ensuring the perpetuation of the pathogen in nature, and the risk of emergence of new cases of CL in domestic animals and humans.