ABSTRACT
Stable continental regions pose unique challenges for conducting Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis because the earthquake activity driving mechanisms are poorly understood. For instance, the lower seismicity (hence the paucity of data) and the absence of well-defined active fault systems complicate accurately determining seismic source parameters. Northeastern Brazil is a stable continental region exhibiting moderate-size events recorded with significant seismic intensities and provoking the collapse of poorly constructed buildings in the last century. Thus, assessing the seismic hazard is critical for seismic risk mitigation. The seismic hazard depends on three components: source, path, and site, and here, we present the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the source component for NE Brazil. Spatial aggregation of earthquake sources outlined four areal seismic zones. A goodness-of-fit test rejected the Gutenberg-Richter model of magnitude frequency distribution in one of the studied seismic zones. For this reason, we estimated the magnitude probability distribution function in that zone using a nonparametric adaptive kernel estimator. In other zones the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency model was applied. In either way of the magnitude probability distribution modelling we considered the upper bound for magnitude equal to 6.6 mR, based on the upper bound of a 95 % confidence interval for the standard normal distribution of palaeoearthquake sizes. Our findings suggests that potentially damaging events are likely to occur, and we cannot neglect chances for the occurrence of earthquakes exceeding 5.2 mR. The calculated mean return periods indicate significantly shorter intervals between consecutive large events than palaeoseismic records.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Cerebral white matter changes (WMC) represent cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and are common in dementia. Cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) are effective in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) with or without CVD, and in Dementia with Lewy Bodies (DLB). Predictors of treatment response are controversial. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of WMC severity on rate of progression of dementia during treatment with ChEIs. METHODS: CT or MRI brain scans were rated for WMC severity in 243 patients taking ChEIs for dementia. Raters were blind to patients' clinical risk factors, dementia subtype and course of illness. Effects of WMC severity on rates of decline in cognition, function and behaviour were analysed for 140 patients treated for 9 months or longer. Analysis was performed for this group as a whole and within diagnostic subgroups AD and DLB. The main outcome measure was rate of change in Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score. Secondary measures were rates of change in scores on the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and Clifton Assessment Procedures for the Elderly - Behaviour Rating Scale (CAPE-BRS). RESULTS: There was no significant association between severity of WMC and any specified outcome variable for the cohort as a whole or for patients with AD. In patients with DLB, higher WMC scores were associated with more rapid cognitive decline. CONCLUSIONS: Increased WMC severity does not influence clinical response to ChEI treatment in AD, but may hasten deterioration in ChEI-treated patients with DLB.
