Investigating the relation between instantaneous driving decisions and safety critical events in naturalistic driving environment.

The availability of large-scale naturalistic driving data provides enormous opportunities for studying relationships between instantaneous driving decisions prior to involvement in safety critical events (SCEs). This study investigates the role of driving instability prior to involvement in SCEs. While past research has studied crash types and their contributing factors, the role of pre-crash behavior in such events has not been explored as extensively. The research demonstrates how measures and analysis of driving volatility can be leading indicators of crashes and contribute to enhancing safety. Highly detailed microscopic data from naturalistic driving are used to provide the analytic framework to rigorously analyze the behavioral dimensions and driving instability that can lead to different types of SCEs such as roadway departures, rear end collisions, and sideswipes. Modeling results reveal a positive association between volatility and involvement in SCEs. Specifically, increases in both lateral and longitudinal volatilities represented by Bollinger bands and vehicular jerk lead to higher likelihoods of involvement in SCEs. Further, driver behavior related factors such as aggressive driving and lane changing also increases the likelihood of involvement in SCEs. Driver distraction, as represented by the duration of secondary tasks, also increases the risk of SCEs. Likewise, traffic flow parameters play a critical role in safety risk. The risk of involvement in SCEs decreases under free flow traffic conditions and increases under unstable traffic flow. Further, the model shows prediction accuracy of 88.1 % and 85.7 % for training and validation data. These results have implications for proactive safety and providing in-vehicle warnings and alerts to prevent the occurrence of such SCEs.

Impact of cyberattacks on safety and stability of connected and automated vehicle platoons under lane changes.

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) offer a huge potential to improve the operations and safety of transportation systems. However, the use of smart devices and communications in CAVs introduce new risks. CAVs would leverage vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communication, thus providing additional system access points compared to traditional systems. Automation makes these systems more vulnerable and increases the consequences of cyberattacks. This study utilizes an infrastructure-based communication platform consisting of cooperative adaptive cruise control and lane control advisories developed by the authors to perform cyber risk assessment of CAVs. The study emulates three types of cyberattacks (message falsification, dedicated denial of service, and spoofing attacks) in a representative traffic environment consisting of multiple CAV platoons and lane change events to analyze the safety and stability impacts of the cyberattacks. Simulation experiments using VISSIM reveals that traffic stream and CAV string is unstable under all three types of cyberattacks. The worst case is represented by the message falsification attack. Increases in volatility are observed over a no attack case, with variations increasing by an average of 43%-51% along with an increase of over 3000 crash conflicts. Similarly, lane change crash conflicts are observed to be more severe compared to rear end crash conflicts, showing a higher probability of severe injuries. Further, the case of slight cyberattack on a single CAV also creates significant disruption in the traffic stream. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals the statistical significance of the results. These results pave the way for future design of secure systems from a monitoring perspective.

A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems.

Transportation agencies utilize Active traffic management (ATM) systems to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on real-time conditions. While these systems have been shown to have some safety benefits, their impact on injury severity outcomes is currently uncertain. This paper used full Bayesian mixed logit models to quantify the impact that ATM deployment had on crash severities. The estimation results revealed lower severities with ATM deployment. Marginal effects for ATM deployments that featured hard shoulder running (HSR) revealed lower likelihoods for severe and moderate injury crashes of 15.9 % and for minor injury crashes of 10.1 %. The likelihood of severe and moderate injury crashes and minor injury crashes reduced by 12.4 % and 8.33 % with ATM without HSR. The models were observed to be temporally transferable and had forecast error of 0.301 and 0.304 for the two models, revealing better performance with validation data. These results have implications for improving freeway crash risk at critical locations.

Left turn crash risk analysis: Development of a microsimulation modeling approach.

The use of traffic simulation to analyze complex transportation issues has become common practice in transportation engineering. The further application of microsimulation to the analysis of traffic safety in a systematic, rigorous, and controlled fashion is becoming increasingly viable as simulation models improve and tools for quantifying surrogate safety measures become readily accessible. Using a calibrated traffic microsimulation model and surrogate safety assessment model analysis, this paper examined how the risk for left-turn crashes varied as traffic conditions changed at a signalized intersection. Safety impacts for 750 unique combinations of intersection geometry, traffic, and signal timing parameters were simulated and the number of left-turn conflicts per hour noted. Results of the simulation analyses were used to develop statistical models that expressed the risk of occurrence of a left-turn crash during a given hour as a function of the left-turn phasing mode and prevailing conditions during that hour. The study was motivated by the recent widespread application of the flashing yellow arrow (FYA) which provides the opportunity to vary left-turn phasing mode by time of day-potentially leading to more efficient traffic operations at signalized intersections. In this regard, the study addresses a basic need for tools that predict how the risk for left-turn crashes might vary at a more disaggregated level than that provided by existing crash prediction models, which typically predict yearly totals of left-turn crashes, often based on annual average daily traffic volumes. Potential application of the model to the implementation of a time-variable safety-based left-turn phasing selection scheme using FYA was successfully demonstrated.

Improving freeway segment crash prediction models by including disaggregate speed data from different sources.

Traditional traffic safety analyses use highly aggregated data, typically annual average daily traffic (AADT) and annual crash counts. This approach neglects the time-varying nature of critical factors such as traffic speed, volume, and density, and their effects on traffic safety. This paper evaluated the relationship between crashes and quality of flow at different levels of temporal aggregation using continuous count station data and probe data from 4 lane rural freeway and 6 lane urban freeway segments in Virginia. The performance of crash prediction models using traffic and geometric information at 15-minute, hourly, and annual aggregation intervals were contrasted. This study also assessed whether inclusion of speed data improved model performance and examined the effects of using speeds from physical sensors versus speed estimates from private-sector probe speed data. The results showed that using average hourly volume along with average speed and selected geometric variables improved predictions compared to annual models that did not use speed information. When comparing an AADT-based model to an average hourly volume model for total crashes, the mean absolute prediction error improved by 11% for rural models and 20% for urban models. This result was based on volume and speed data from continuous count stations. When private sector probe speed data was used, the rural model performance improved by 10% and urban models by 20%. This trend was consistent for all crash types irrespective of level of injury or number of vehicles involved. Even though models using private sector data performed slightly worse than the ones based on continuous count data, they were still far better than AADT based models. These results indicate that probe based data can be used in developing crash models without harming prediction capability.

Crash severity effects of adaptive signal control technology: An empirical assessment with insights from Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Adaptive signal control technology (ASCT) is an intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technology that optimizes signal timings in real time to improve corridor flow. While a few past studies have examined the impact of ASCT on crash frequency, little is known about its effect on injury severity outcomes. Similarly, the impact of different types of ASCTs deployed across different states is also uncertain. This paper therefore, used ordered probit models with random parameters to estimate the injury severity outcomes resulting from ASCT deployment across Pennsylvania and Virginia. Two disparate systems deployed across the two different states were analyzed to assess whether they had similar impacts on injury severity, although signal timings are optimized using different algorithms by both systems. The estimation results revealed that both ASCT systems were associated with reductions in injury severity levels. Marginal effects showed that Type A ASCT systems reduced the propensity of severe plus moderate and minor injury crashes by 11.70% and 10.36% while type B ASCT reduced the propensity of severe plus moderate and minor injury crashes by 4.39% and 6.92%. Similarly, the ASCTs deployed across the two states were also observed to reduce injury severities. The combined best fit model also revealed a similar trend towards reductions in severe plus moderate and minor injury crashes by 5.24% and 9.91%. This model performed well on validation data with a low forecast error of 0.301 and was also observed to be spatially transferable. These results encourage the consideration of ASCT deployments at intersections with high crash severities and have practical implications for aiding agencies in making future deployment decisions about ASCT.

Estimating safety effects of adaptive signal control technology using the Empirical Bayes method.

INTRODUCTION: Adaptive signal control technology (ASCT) has long been investigated for its operational benefits, but the safety impacts of this technology are still unclear. The main purpose of this study was to determine the safety effect of ASCT at urban/suburban intersections by assessing two different systems. METHOD: Crash data for 41 intersections from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT), along with crash frequencies computed through Safety Performance Functions (SPFs), were used to perform the Empirical Bayes (E-B) method to develop crash modification factors (CMF) for ASCT. Moreover, a crash type analysis was conducted to examine the safety impact of ASCT on a regional scale and the variation of safety among type of crashes observed. RESULTS: The results from this study indicated the potential of ASCT to reduce crashes since the Crash Modification Factor (CMF) values for both ASCT systems (SURTRAC and InSync) showed significant reductions in crashes. Average CMF values of 0.87 and 0.64 were observed for total and fatal and injury crash categories at a 95% confidence level, and results were consistent between systems. While a reduction in the proportion of rear end crashes was observed, the change was not determined to be statistically significant. The overall distribution of crash types did not change significantly when ASCT was deployed. CONCLUSION AND PRACTICAL APPLICATION: The results indicate that safety benefits of ASCT were generally consistent across systems, which should aid agencies in making future deployment decisions on ASCT.

A Cyber-ITS framework for massive traffic data analysis using cyber infrastructure.

Traffic data is commonly collected from widely deployed sensors in urban areas. This brings up a new research topic, data-driven intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), which means to integrate heterogeneous traffic data from different kinds of sensors and apply it for ITS applications. This research, taking into consideration the significant increase in the amount of traffic data and the complexity of data analysis, focuses mainly on the challenge of solving data-intensive and computation-intensive problems. As a solution to the problems, this paper proposes a Cyber-ITS framework to perform data analysis on Cyber Infrastructure (CI), by nature parallel-computing hardware and software systems, in the context of ITS. The techniques of the framework include data representation, domain decomposition, resource allocation, and parallel processing. All these techniques are based on data-driven and application-oriented models and are organized as a component-and-workflow-based model in order to achieve technical interoperability and data reusability. A case study of the Cyber-ITS framework is presented later based on a traffic state estimation application that uses the fusion of massive Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) data and GPS data. The results prove that the Cyber-ITS-based implementation can achieve a high accuracy rate of traffic state estimation and provide a significant computational speedup for the data fusion by parallel computing.

Understanding and managing disaster evacuation on a transportation network.

Uncertain population behaviors in a regional emergency could potentially harm the performance of the region's transportation system and subsequent evacuation effort. The integration of behavioral survey data with travel demand modeling enables an assessment of transportation system performance and the identification of operational and public health countermeasures. This paper analyzes transportation system demand and system performance for emergency management in three disaster scenarios. A two-step methodology first estimates the number of trips evacuating the region, thereby capturing behavioral aspects in a scientifically defensible manner based on survey results, and second, assigns these trips to a regional highway network, using geographic information systems software, thereby making the methodology transferable to other locations. Performance measures are generated for each scenario including maps of volume-to-capacity ratios, geographic contours of evacuation time from the center of the region, and link-specific metrics such as weighted average speed and traffic volume. The methods are demonstrated on a 600 segment transportation network in Washington, DC (USA) and are applied to three scenarios involving attacks from radiological dispersion devices (e.g., dirty bombs). The results suggests that: (1) a single detonation would degrade transportation system performance two to three times more than that which occurs during a typical weekday afternoon peak hour, (2) volume on several critical arterials within the network would exceed capacity in the represented scenarios, and (3) resulting travel times to reach intended destinations imply that un-aided evacuation is impractical. These results assist decisions made by two categories of emergency responders: (1) transportation managers who provide traveler information and who make operational adjustments to improve the network (e.g., signal retiming) and (2) public health officials who maintain shelters, food and water stations, or first aid centers along evacuation routes. This approach may also interest decisionmakers who are in a position to influence the allocation of emergency resources, including healthcare providers, infrastructure owners, transit providers, and regional or local planning staff.