Long-term Cancer Survival Trends by Updated Summary Stage.

BACKGROUND: Stage is the most important prognostic factor for understanding cancer survival trends. Summary stage (SS) classifies cancer based on the extent of spread: In situ, Localized, Regional, or Distant. Continual updating of staging systems poses challenges to stage comparisons over time. We use a consistent summary stage classification and present survival trends for 25 cancer sites using the joinpoint survival (JPSurv) model. METHODS: We developed a modified summary stage variable, Long-Term Site-Specific Summary Stage, based on as consistent a definition as possible and applied it to a maximum number of diagnosis years, 1975-2019. We estimated trends by stage by applying JPSurv to relative survival data for 25 cancer sites in SEER-8, 1975-2018, followed through December 31, 2019. To help interpret survival trends, we report incidence and mortality trends using the joinpoint model. RESULTS: Five-year relative survival improved for nearly all sites and stages. Large improvements were observed for localized pancreatic cancer [4.25 percentage points annually, 2007-2012 (95% confidence interval, 3.40-5.10)], distant skin melanoma [2.15 percentage points annually, 2008-2018 (1.73-2.57)], and localized esophagus cancer [1.18 percentage points annually, 1975-2018 (1.11-1.26)]. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first analysis of survival trends by summary stage for multiple cancer sites. The largest survival increases were seen for cancers with a traditionally poor prognosis and no organized screening, which likely reflects clinical management advances. IMPACT: Our study will be particularly useful for understanding the population-level impact of new treatments and identifying emerging trends in health disparities research.

2022 revised European recommendations for the coding of the basis of diagnosis of cancer cases in population-based cancer registries.

The basis of diagnosis recommendations for population-based cancer registries aim to provide a standardized coding tool that reflects the certainty of cancer diagnosis, especially when pathological confirmation is lacking. The proportion of clinical diagnoses serves as an indicator of data quality. Given the evolving nature of diagnostic techniques, regular revision of the basis of diagnosis rules is crucial. To address this, a working group comprising representatives from the steering committee and member registries of the European Network of Cancer Registries was established. The original 1999 recommendations were comprehensively reviewed, resulting in the publication of an updated version. These new recommendations came into effect for incident cancer cases starting from January 1, 2023. The updated recommendations comprise an adapted code list for the basis of diagnosis, optional codes for histology cases, revisions related to flow cytometry, liquid biopsy, and cytogenetic/molecular testing, consolidation of histology codes 6 and 7, introduction of a new code 8 for cytogenetic/molecular confirmation, and establishment of new criteria for registering specific morphology codes in cancers lacking pathological confirmation.

Impact of including second and later cancers in cause-specific survival estimates using population-based registry data.

BACKGROUND: Second or later primary cancers account for approximately 20% of incident cases in the United States. Currently, cause-specific survival (CSS) analyses exclude these cancers because the cause of death (COD) classification algorithm was available only for first cancers. The authors added rules for later cancers to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cause-specific death classification algorithm and evaluated CSS to include individuals with prior tumors. METHODS: The authors constructed 2 cohorts: 1) the first ever primary cohort, including patients whose first cancer was diagnosed during 2000 through 2016) and 2) the earliest matching primary cohort, including patients with any cancer who matched the selection criteria irrespective of whether it was the first or a later cancer diagnosed during 2000 through 2016. The cohorts' CSS estimates were compared using follow-up through December 31, 2017. The new rules were used in the second cohort for patients whose first cancers during 2000 through 2016 were their second or later cancers. RESULTS: Overall, there were no statistically significant differences in CSS estimates between the 2 cohorts. Estimates were similar by age, stage, race, and time since diagnosis, except for patients with leukemia and those aged 65 to 74 years (3.4 percentage point absolute difference). CONCLUSIONS: The absolute difference in CSS estimates for the first cancer ever cohort versus earliest of any cancers cohort in the study period was small for most cancer types. As the number of newly diagnosed patients with prior cancers increases, the algorithm will make CSS more inclusive and enable estimating survival for a group of patients with cancer for whom life tables are not available or life tables are available but do not capture other-cause mortality appropriately.

Geographic disparities of breast cancer incidence in Portugal at the district level: A spatial age-period-cohort analysis, 1998-2011.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women world-wide and the most common cause of cancer deaths, which can often be managed with early diagnosis and subsequent treatment. Here, we focus on geographic disparities in incidence within Portugal for three age groups of women (30-49; 50-69; 70-84 years). METHODS: Age-period-cohort (APC) models are widely used in cancer surveillance, and these models have recently been extended to allow spatially-varying effects. We apply novel spatial APC models to estimate relative risk and age-adjusted temporal trends at the district level for the 20 districts in Portugal. Our model allows us to report on country-wide trends, but also to investigate geographic disparities between districts and trends within districts. RESULTS: Age-adjusted breast cancer incidence was increasing over 1998-2011 for all three age groups and in every district in Portugal. However, we detect spatially-structured between-district heterogeneity in relative risk and age-adjusted trends (Net Drifts) for each of the three age groups, which is most pronounced in the highly-screened (50-69yo) and late-onset (70-84yo) groups of women. CONCLUSIONS: We present evidence of disparities in breast cancer incidence at a more granular geographic level than previously reported. Some disparities may be due to latent risk factors, which cannot be accounted for by age, birth year, and geographic location alone. IMPACT: Our study motivates resuming data collection for breast cancer incidence at the district level in Portugal, as well as the study of exogenous risk factors.

An updated histology recode for the analysis of primary malignant and nonmalignant brain and other central nervous system tumors in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.

BACKGROUND: There are over 100 histologically distinct types of primary malignant and nonmalignant brain and other central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Our study presents recent trends in the incidence of these tumors using an updated histology recode that incorporates major diagnostic categories listed in the 2016 World Health Organization Classification of Tumours of the CNS. METHODS: We used data from the SEER-21 registries for patients of all ages diagnosed in 2000-2017. We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates and fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the Annual Percent Change and 95% confidence intervals over the period 2000-2017. RESULTS: There were 315,184 new malignant (34.2%; 107,890) and nonmalignant (65.8%; 207,294) brain tumor cases during 2004-2017. Nonmalignant meningioma represented 46.5% (146,498) of all brain tumors (malignant and nonmalignant), while glioblastoma represented 50.8% (54,832) of all malignant tumors. Temporal trends were stable or declining except for nonmalignant meningioma (0.7% per year during 2004-2017). Several subtypes presented decreases in trends in the most recent period (2013-2017): diffuse/anaplastic astrocytoma (-1.3% per year, oligodendroglioma (-2.6%), pilocytic astrocytoma (-3.8%), and malignant meningioma (-5.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Declining trends observed in our study may be attributable to recent changes in diagnostic classification and the coding practices stemming from those changes. The recode used in this study enables histology reporting to reflect the changes. It also provides a first step toward the reporting of malignant and nonmalignant brain and other CNS tumors in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program by clinically relevant histology groupings.

Measuring progress against cancer in the Azores, Portugal: Incidence, survival, and mortality trends and projections to 2025.

BACKGROUND: Measuring progress against cancer is more accurate when trends in incidence, survival, and mortality are interpreted simultaneously. Our study aims to analyze how these key metrics have evolved over time in the Azores, Portugal. METHODS: Data for incident cases diagnosed in 1997-2016 and followed up through December 31, 2017 were obtained from the Azores Cancer Registry. Data for cancer deaths that occurred in 1991-2016 were obtained from Statistics Portugal. To estimate temporal trends, we applied a joinpoint model to age-adjusted rates. We estimated five-year net survival within the framework of relative survival using the Pohar-Perme estimator and predicted the number of cases and deaths in 2025. RESULTS: In men, incidence and mortality decreased for stomach, larynx, and prostate cancer. In women, mortality decreased for breast and cervical cancer. Five-year relative survival improved for several cancers, with the most pronounced improvements for prostate cancer in men and colorectal cancer in women (24.1 and 27.9 percentage point absolute increase, respectively). Conversely, incidence and mortality increased for colorectal cancer in men and lung cancer in women. The incidence and mortality burdens are both expected to increase in 2025. CONCLUSION: Overall, progress against cancer in the Azores has been mixed, and much of the progress has been driven by advances in treatment. Statistics for lung cancer in women and colorectal cancer in men are a call to action for policymakers. Reducing tobacco use and tackling the obesity epidemic are the two public health priorities for cancer control within the region.

Regional differences in tobacco smoking and lung cancer in Portugal in 2018: a population-based analysis using nationwide incidence and mortality data.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal in 2018, complemented by trends in incidence and mortality, by sex and region. DESIGN: Cancer cases for 1998-2011 and cancer deaths for 1991-2018 were obtained from population-based registries and Statistics Portugal, respectively. We projected cases for 2018 and used reported deaths for the same year to estimate, using Peto's method, the number and proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths caused by tobacco smoking in 2018. We calculated the age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in each year of diagnosis and death. We fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in the rates. SETTING: Portugal. RESULTS: In 2018, an estimated 3859 cases and 3192 deaths from lung cancer were attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal, with men presenting a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 82.6% (n=3064) for incidence and 84.1% (n=2749) for mortality, while in women those values were 51.0% (n=795) and 42.7% (n=443), respectively. In both sexes and metrics, the Azores were the region with the highest PAF and the Centre with the lowest. During 1998-2011, the APC for incidence ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% in men and 3.6% to 7.9% in women, depending on region, with mortality presenting a similar pattern between sexes. CONCLUSION: Exposure to tobacco smoking has accounted for most of the lung cancer cases and deaths estimated in Portugal in 2018. Differential patterns of tobacco consumption across the country, varying implementation of primary prevention programmes and differences in personal cancer awareness may have contributed to the disparities observed. Primary prevention of lung cancer remains a public health priority, particularly among women.

Lung Cancer: A Nationwide Study to Characterize Sex Differences, Incidence, and Spatial Patterns in Portugal.

BACKGROUND/AIM: This study characterized lung cancer (LC) in Portugal, to capture sex differences, regional variation, and spatial distribution. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Variables: age, sex, vital status, region of residence, degree of urbanization, histologic types and stage at diagnosis. Spatial analyses conducted to identify high (HIC) and low incidence (LIC) clusters. RESULTS: In total, 11,642 cases were diagnosed (76.6% male, 23.4% female), with a similar mean age at diagnosis. There were 23,6% locally advanced and 58.4% metastatic disease cases, with 13.4% alive five years after diagnosis. Non-small-cell LC accounted for 77.3% of which 40.8% was adenocarcinoma and 22.7% was squamous cell carcinoma. Standardized incident rate (IR) was 37.5/105, 65.2/105 in males, and 15.7/105 in females, with four HIC (urban) clusters and four LIC (non-urban). CONCLUSION: This study highlighted the sex differences in incidence, mortality, histology, and geographic distribution of LC in Portugal. Considering the advanced stages and the poor overall survival, understanding sex and geographic differences is important for public health interventions.

The Effect of Advances in Lung-Cancer Treatment on Population Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is made up of distinct subtypes, including non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). Although overall mortality from lung cancer has been declining in the United States, little is known about mortality trends according to cancer subtype at the population level because death certificates do not record subtype information. METHODS: Using data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) areas, we assessed lung-cancer mortality and linked deaths from lung cancer to incident cases in SEER cancer registries. This allowed us to evaluate population-level mortality trends attributed to specific subtypes (incidence-based mortality). We also evaluated lung-cancer incidence and survival according to cancer subtype, sex, and calendar year. Joinpoint software was used to assess changes in incidence and trends in incidence-based mortality. RESULTS: Mortality from NSCLC decreased even faster than the incidence of this subtype, and this decrease was associated with a substantial improvement in survival over time that corresponded to the timing of approval of targeted therapy. Among men, incidence-based mortality from NSCLC decreased 6.3% annually from 2013 through 2016, whereas the incidence decreased 3.1% annually from 2008 through 2016. Corresponding lung cancer-specific survival improved from 26% among men with NSCLC that was diagnosed in 2001 to 35% among those in whom it was diagnosed in 2014. This improvement in survival was found across all races and ethnic groups. Similar patterns were found among women with NSCLC. In contrast, mortality from SCLC declined almost entirely as a result of declining incidence, with no improvement in survival. This result correlates with limited treatment advances for SCLC in the time frame we examined. CONCLUSIONS: Population-level mortality from NSCLC in the United States fell sharply from 2013 to 2016, and survival after diagnosis improved substantially. Our analysis suggests that a reduction in incidence along with treatment advances - particularly approvals for and use of targeted therapies - is likely to explain the reduction in mortality observed during this period.