Reported history and correlates of drug overdose among people who inject drugs in Lebanon

Background: Opioid overdose is an issue of increasing concern, and better epidemiologic data are needed to implement effective treatment programmes. Few published reports address the frequency of fatal or non-fatal opioid overdose in countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. Aims: We provide the first-ever study of the reported history and correlates of drug overdose among a broad sample of out-of-treatment people who inject drugs (PWID) in Lebanon. Methods: This was a respondent-driven sampling, cross-sectional, biobehavioural study carried out in Beirut, Lebanon, between October 2014 and February 2015. Data were collected on sociodemographics, risk profiles, drug use histories, drug and sexual risk behaviours, history of substance use treatment and incarceration, and pertinent infectious disease test results. Results: We recruited 382 eligible PWID. The majority were Lebanese (95.3%) men (95.5%), with an average age of 30.3 (standard deviation 9.9) years. A history of drug overdose was reported in 171 (44.8%) PWID. Around 86% reported heroin as the first drug they had ever injected. Approximately half (53.0%) reported a history of substance use treatment, and 80.1% reported a history of arrest for the injection or possession of drugs. Our analysis demonstrates that, after adjusting for relevant covariates, drug overdose is associated with a history of incarceration, drug treatment, and an increased number of arrests in one’s lifetime for drug injection or possession. Conclusions: The observed associations suggest overdose prevention programmes may be effective if targeted to recently incarcerated people and to those receiving drug treatment.

Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States

BackgroundEfforts to track the severity and public health impact of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths attributed to broad outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) or all causes, can provide a more complete and consistent picture of the burden caused by COVID-19. MethodsWe evaluated increases in the occurrence of deaths due to P&I above a seasonal baseline (adjusted for influenza activity) or due to any cause across the United States in February and March 2020. These estimates are compared with reported deaths due to COVID-19 and with testing data. ResultsThere were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19. There was substantial variability between states in the discrepancy between reported rates of death due to COVID-19 and the estimated burden of excess deaths due to P&I. The increase in all-cause deaths in New York and New Jersey is 1.5-3 times higher than the official tally of COVID-19 confirmed deaths or the estimated excess death due to P&I. ConclusionsExcess P&I deaths provide a conservative estimate of COVID-19 burden and indicate that COVID-19-related deaths are missed in locations with inadequate testing or intense pandemic activity. RESEARCH IN CONTEXTO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSDeaths due to the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, have been increasing sharply in the United States since mid-March. However, efforts to track the severity and public health impact of COIVD-19 in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. As a result, the reported number of deaths likely represents an underestimate of the true burden. Added Value of this studyWe evaluate increases in deaths due to pneumonia across the United States and relate these increases to the number of reported deaths due to COVID-19 in different states and evaluate the trajectories of these increases in relation to the volume of testing and to indicators of COVID-19 morbidity. This provides a more complete picture of mortality due to COVID-19 in the US and demonstrates how delays in testing led to many coronavirus deaths not being counted in certain states. Implications of all the available evidenceThe number of deaths reported to be due to COVID-19 represents just a fraction of the deaths linked to the pandemic. Monitoring trends in deaths due to pneumonia and all-causes provides a more complete picture of the tool of the disease.