Role of Gait Speed, Strength, and Balance in Predicting Adverse Outcomes of Acutely Ill Older Outpatients.

AIM: To evaluate the ability of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) for predicting 1-year adverse outcomes of acutely ill older outpatients. METHODS: Prospective study with 512 acutely ill older outpatients (79.4±8.3 years, 63% female) in an acute care day hospital. The SPPB was administered at admission. Participants were classified as low (0-4 points), intermediate (5-8 points), or high (9-12 points) performance. Primary outcomes were new dependence in basic activities of daily living (ADL), hospitalization, and death at 1 year. Cox models tested whether the SPPB predicted outcomes after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, comorbidities and well-known geriatric conditions. We also estimated whether the chair-stand and balance tests improve the SPPB's ability to identify patients at high risk of adverse outcomes. RESULTS: Patients with intermediate or low SPPB performance were at higher risk of 1-year new ADL dependence (32% vs 13%: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=2.00; 95%CI=1.18-3.37; 58% vs 13%: aHR=3.40; 95%CI=2.00-5.85, respectively), hospitalization (43% vs 29%: aHR=1.56; 95%CI=1.04-2.33; 44% vs 29%: aHR=1.80; 95%CI=1.15-2.82), and death (18% vs 6%: aHR=2.54; 95%CI=1.17-5.53; 21% vs 6%: aHR=2.70; 95%CI=1.17-6.21). Use of all three components (versus gait speed alone) improved predictions of new ADL dependence (Harrell's C=0.73 vs 0.70;P=0.01), hospitalization (Harrell's C=0.60 vs 0.57;P=0.04), and death (Harrell's C=0.67 vs 0.62;P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The SPPB is as a powerful tool for identifying acutely ill older outpatients at high-risk of adverse outcomes. The combination of the three components of the SPPB resulted in better predictive performance than gait speed alone.

A 10-min Targeted Geriatric Assessment Predicts Mortality in Fast-Paced Acute Care Settings: A Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate whether a 10-minute Targeted Geriatric Assessment (10-TaGA) adds utility to sociodemographic characteristics and comorbidities in predicting one-year mortality in busy acute care settings. We have also compared the performance of 10-TaGA with the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) scale. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Geriatric day hospital specializing in acute care in Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: 751 older adults aged 79.4 ± 8.4 years (64% female), presenting non-surgical, medical illness requiring hospital-level care (e.g., intravenous therapy, laboratory test, radiology) for ≤ 12 hours. MEASUREMENTS: The 10-TaGA, an easy-to-administer screening tool based on the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), provided a measure of cumulative deficits ranging from 0 (no deficits) to 1 (highest deficit) on admission. Standard risk factors, including sociodemographics (age, gender, ethnicity, income) and the Charlson comorbidity index, were evaluated. The ISAR, a well-validated screening tool, was used for comparison. RESULTS: During one year of follow-up, 130 (17%) participants died. Compared to the ISAR, 10-TaGA offered better accuracy in identifying older patients at risk of death (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: [AUC] 0.70 vs 0.65; P = 0.03). In a Cox regression model adjusted for sociodemographics and comorbidities, each 0.1 increment in the 10-TaGA score (range 0-1) was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio = 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.27-1.59). The addition of 10-TaGA markedly improved the discrimination of the model, which already incorporated standard risk factors (AUC 0.76 vs 0.71; P = 0.005); adding ISAR (AUC 0.73 vs 0.71; P = 0.09) did not have this marked effect. CONCLUSION: The 10-TaGA is an independent predictor of one-year mortality in acute care patients. This multidimensional screening tool offers better accuracy than ISAR when differentiating between older people at low and high risk of death in healthcare settings where providers have limited time and resources.