[Prognosis of short-term outcome in the first admission for psychosis]. / Pronostic à court terme lors de la première hospitalisation pour trouble psychotique.

The aim of the study was to assess the factors predicting the clinical and therapeutic outcome at discharge of first hospitalization in a population-based sample of patients presenting with psychotic symptoms. Factors predicting duration of the first hospital stay were examined using Cox proportional hazard regression. A family history of psychiatric hospitalization was the only variable independently predicting at trend level a longer hospitalization (HR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.28-1.07, p = 0.08). Since most subjects (92.5%) returned to an independent place of residence in the community after the hospital stay, factors predicting residential outcome were not assessed. Factors associated with persistence of psychotic symptoms, or prescription of antipsychotic drugs, at discharge, were examined using logistic regression models. Persistence of psychotic symptoms (whatever their intensity) was associated with a diagnosis of schizophrenia broadly defined (OR = 23.9, 95% CI 2.8-201.7, p = 0.003), with poor adjustment in the preceding year as measured by the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale (OR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.99, p = 0.04), and, at trend level, with older age at admission (OR = 1.1, 95% CI 0.99-1.21, p = 0.07). Prescription of antipsychotic drugs at discharge was independently predicted by low educational level (OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.2-25.4, p = 0.03), low GAF score (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.05), and, at trend level, by a diagnosis of schizophrenia broadly defined (OR = 4.1, 95% CI 0.80-23.4, p = 0.09). Univariate analyses showed that duration of psychosis before first admission was strongly associated with persistence of psychotic symptoms and with prescription of antipsychotic drugs at discharge. However, no association was found between duration of psychosis and outcome after adjustment.

Prediction of duration of psychosis before first admission.

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: To assess the factors predicting the delay between onset of psychotic symptoms and first admission in a population-based sample. METHOD: The duration of psychosis before admission was ascertained in a standardised way for 59 consecutively first-admitted patients presenting with psychotic symptoms. RESULTS: The median of the duration of psychosis before admission was 3 months (interquartile range 0.5-14). A delay ? 3 months was independently predicted by family history of psychiatric hospitalisation (odds ratio [OR] = 12.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-97.0, P = 0.02), low educational level (OR = 7.7, 95% CI 1.0-50.0, P = 0.05), poor global adjustment in the preceding year (OR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.86-0.99, P = 0.04), and by greater global seventy of illness at admission (OR = 4.0, 95% CI 0.87-18.3, P = 0.07). CONCLUSION: As these factors are also known to predict poor outcome, our results suggest that the association between duration of untreated psychosis and poor prognosis may be mediated, at least in part, by such demographic and clinical variables. (c) 1998 Elsevier, Paris.