Dental Surgical Activity in Hospitals during COVID-19: A Nationwide Observational Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: The number of surgical extractions performed in hospitals in England remains unclear. This study reports the volume of surgical extractions conducted in hospitals and change in activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide observational cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England for patients undergoing surgical removal of a tooth (defined using OPSC-4 code F09) between April 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020. Procedures were stratified by age, gender, and urgency (elective or nonelective), reported using descriptive statistics, number, and percentage. We conducted post hoc modeling to predict surgical activity to December 2023. In addition, we contrasted this with aggregate national data on simple dental extraction procedures and drainage of dental abscesses in hospital as well as dental activity in general practice. RESULTS: We identified a total of 569,938 episodes for the surgical removal of a tooth (females 57%). Of these, 493,056/569,938 (87%) were for adults and 76,882/569,938 (13%) children ≤18 years. Surgical extractions were most frequent in adult females. Elective cases accounted for 96% (n = 548,805/569,938) of procedures. The median number of procedures carried out per quarter was 27,256, dropping to 12,003 during the COVID-19 pandemic, representing a 56% reduction in activity. This amounted to around 61,058 cancelled procedures. Modeling predicts that this activity has not returned to prepandemic levels. CONCLUSIONS: The number of surgical extractions taking place in hospitals during the pandemic fell by 56%. The true impact of this reduction is unknown, but delayed treatment increases the risk of complications, including life-threatening infections. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT: The result of this study provides an evidence-based overview of the trends relating to surgical extractions of teeth in England taking place in hospitals. This information can be used to inform service and workforce planning to meet the needs of patients requiring surgical extractions. The data also provide an insight into the oral health needs of the population in England.

Using Bayesian Dynamic Borrowing to Maximize the Use of Existing Data: A Case-Study.

Bayesian Dynamic Borrowing (BDB) designs are being increasingly used in clinical drug development. These methods offer a mathematically rigorous and robust approach to increase efficiency and strengthen evidence by integrating existing trial data into a new clinical trial. The regulatory acceptability of BDB is evolving and varies between and within regulatory agencies. This paper describes how BDB can be used to design a new randomised clinical trial including external data to supplement the planned sample size and discusses key considerations related to data re-use and BDB in drug development programs. A case-study illustrating the planning and evaluation of a BDB approach to support registration of a new medicine with the Center for Drug Evaluation in China will be presented. Key steps and considerations for the use of BDB will be discussed and evaluated, including how to decide whether it is appropriate to borrow external data, which external data can be re-used, the weight to put on the external data and how to decide if the new study has successfully demonstrated treatment benefit.

The development of deep-ocean anoxia in a comprehensive ocean phosphorus model.

We analyse a model of the phosphorus cycle in the ocean given by Slomp and Van Cappellen (Biogeosciences 4:155-171, 2007. 10.5194/bg-4-155-2007). This model contains four distinct oceanic boxes and includes relevant parts of the water, carbon and oxygen cycles. We show that the model can essentially be solved analytically, and its behaviour completely understood without recourse to numerical methods. In particular, we show that, in the model, the carbon and phosphorus concentrations in the different ocean reservoirs are all slaved to the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus in the deep ocean, which relaxes to an equilibrium on a time scale of 180,000 y, and we show that the deep ocean is either oxic or anoxic, depending on a critical parameter which we can determine explicitly. Finally, we examine how the value of this critical parameter depends on the physical parameters contained in the model. The presented methodology is based on tools from applied mathematics and can be used to reduce the complexity of other large, biogeochemical models. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13137-023-00221-0.

Health Resource Utilisation and Disparities: an Ecological Study of Admission Patterns Across Ethnicity in England Between 2017 and 2020.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted adverse outcomes in Asian, Black, and ethnic minority groups. More research is required to explore underlying ethnic health inequalities. In this study, we aim to examine pre-COVID ethnic inequalities more generally through healthcare utilisation to contextualise underlying inequalities that were present before the pandemic. DESIGN: This was an ecological study exploring all admissions to NHS hospitals in England from 2017 to 2020. METHODS: The primary outcomes were admission rates within ethnic groups. Secondary outcomes included age-specific and age-standardised admission rates. Sub-analysis of admission rates across an index of multiple deprivation (IMD) deciles was also performed to contextualise the impact of socioeconomic differences amongst ethnic categories. Results were presented as a relative ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Age-standardised admission rates were higher in Asian (RR 1.40 [1.38-1.41] in 2019) and Black (RR 1.37 [1.37-1.38]) and lower in Mixed groups (RR 0.91 [0.90-0.91]) relative to White. There was significant missingness or misassignment of ethnicity in NHS admissions: with 11.7% of admissions having an unknown/not-stated ethnicity assignment and 'other' ethnicity being significantly over-represented. Admission rates did not mirror the degree of deprivation across all ethnic categories. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows Black and Asian ethnic groups have higher admission rates compared to White across all age groups and when standardised for age. There is evidence of incomplete and misidentification of ethnicity assignment in NHS admission records, which may introduce bias to work on these datasets. Differences in admission rates across individual ethnic categories cannot solely be explained by socioeconomic status. Further work is needed to identify ethnicity-specific factors of these inequalities to allow targeted interventions at the local level.

Formation of robust bound states of interacting microwave photons.

Systems of correlated particles appear in many fields of modern science and represent some of the most intractable computational problems in nature. The computational challenge in these systems arises when interactions become comparable to other energy scales, which makes the state of each particle depend on all other particles1. The lack of general solutions for the three-body problem and acceptable theory for strongly correlated electrons shows that our understanding of correlated systems fades when the particle number or the interaction strength increases. One of the hallmarks of interacting systems is the formation of multiparticle bound states2-9. Here we develop a high-fidelity parameterizable fSim gate and implement the periodic quantum circuit of the spin-½ XXZ model in a ring of 24 superconducting qubits. We study the propagation of these excitations and observe their bound nature for up to five photons. We devise a phase-sensitive method for constructing the few-body spectrum of the bound states and extract their pseudo-charge by introducing a synthetic flux. By introducing interactions between the ring and additional qubits, we observe an unexpected resilience of the bound states to integrability breaking. This finding goes against the idea that bound states in non-integrable systems are unstable when their energies overlap with the continuum spectrum. Our work provides experimental evidence for bound states of interacting photons and discovers their stability beyond the integrability limit.

Noise-resilient edge modes on a chain of superconducting qubits.

Inherent symmetry of a quantum system may protect its otherwise fragile states. Leveraging such protection requires testing its robustness against uncontrolled environmental interactions. Using 47 superconducting qubits, we implement the one-dimensional kicked Ising model, which exhibits nonlocal Majorana edge modes (MEMs) with [Formula: see text] parity symmetry. We find that any multiqubit Pauli operator overlapping with the MEMs exhibits a uniform late-time decay rate comparable to single-qubit relaxation rates, irrespective of its size or composition. This characteristic allows us to accurately reconstruct the exponentially localized spatial profiles of the MEMs. Furthermore, the MEMs are found to be resilient against certain symmetry-breaking noise owing to a prethermalization mechanism. Our work elucidates the complex interplay between noise and symmetry-protected edge modes in a solid-state environment.

Trends and associated factors for Covid-19 hospitalisation and fatality risk in 2.3 million adults in England.

The Covid-19 mortality rate varies between countries and over time but the extent to which this is explained by the underlying risk in those infected is unclear. Using data on all adults in England with a positive Covid-19 test between 1st October 2020 and 30th April 2021 linked to clinical records, we examined trends and risk factors for hospital admission and mortality. Of 2,311,282 people included in the study, 164,046 (7.1%) were admitted and 53,156 (2.3%) died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test. We found significant variation in the case hospitalisation and mortality risk over time, which remained after accounting for the underlying risk of those infected. Older age groups, males, those resident in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation, and those with obesity had higher odds of admission and death. People with severe mental illness and learning disability had the highest odds of admission and death. Our findings highlight both the role of external factors in Covid-19 admission and mortality risk and the need for more proactive care in the most vulnerable groups.

Realizing topologically ordered states on a quantum processor.

The discovery of topological order has revised the understanding of quantum matter and provided the theoretical foundation for many quantum error­correcting codes. Realizing topologically ordered states has proven to be challenging in both condensed matter and synthetic quantum systems. We prepared the ground state of the toric code Hamiltonian using an efficient quantum circuit on a superconducting quantum processor. We measured a topological entanglement entropy near the expected value of ­ln2 and simulated anyon interferometry to extract the braiding statistics of the emergent excitations. Furthermore, we investigated key aspects of the surface code, including logical state injection and the decay of the nonlocal order parameter. Our results demonstrate the potential for quantum processors to provide insights into topological quantum matter and quantum error correction.

Mid-treatment Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography in Human Papillomavirus-related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Treated with Primary Radiotherapy: Nodal Metabolic Response Rate can Predict Treatment Outcomes.

AIMS: To evaluate whether biomarkers derived from fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography-computed tomography (FDG PET-CT) performed prior to (prePET) and during the third week (interim PET; iPET) of radiotherapy can predict treatment outcomes in human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective analysis included 46 patients with newly diagnosed OPC treated with definitive (chemo)radiation and all patients had confirmed positive HPV status (HPV+OPC) based on p16 immunohistochemistry. The maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesional glycolysis (TLG) of primary, index node (node with the highest TLG) and total lymph nodes and their median percentage (≥50%) reductions in iPET were analysed, and correlated with 5-year Kaplan-Meier and multivariable analyses (smoking, T4, N2b-3 and AJCC stage IV), including local failure-free survival, regional failure-free survival, locoregional failure-free survival (LRFFS), distant metastatic failure-free survival (DMFFS), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival. RESULTS: There was no association of outcomes with prePET parameters observed on multivariate analysis. A complete metabolic response of primary tumour was seen in 13 patients; the negative predictive value for local failure was 100%. More than a 50% reduction in total nodal MTV provided the best predictor of outcomes, including LRFFS (88% versus 47.1%, P = 0.006, hazard ratio = 0.153) and DFS (78.2% versus 41.2%, P = 0.01, hazard ratio = 0.234). More than a 50% reduction in index node TLG was inversely related to DMFFS: a better nodal response was associated with a higher incidence of distant metastatic failure (66.7% versus 100%, P = 0.009, hazard ratio = 3.0). CONCLUSION: The reduction (≥50%) of volumetric nodal metabolic burden can potentially identify a subgroup of HPV+OPC patients at low risk of locoregional failure but inversely at higher risk of distant metastatic failure and may have a role in individualised adaptive radiotherapy and systemic therapy.

Atto-Foxes and Other Minutiae.

This paper addresses the problem of extinction in continuous models of population dynamics associated with small numbers of individuals. We begin with an extended discussion of extinction in the particular case of a stochastic logistic model, and how it relates to the corresponding continuous model. Two examples of 'small number dynamics' are then considered. The first is what Mollison calls the 'atto-fox' problem (in a model of fox rabies), referring to the problematic theoretical occurrence of a predicted rabid fox density of [Formula: see text] (atto-) per square kilometre. The second is how the production of large numbers of eggs by an individual can reliably lead to the eventual survival of a handful of adults, as it would seem that extinction then becomes a likely possibility. We describe the occurrence of the atto-fox problem in other contexts, such as the microbial 'yocto-cell' problem, and we suggest that the modelling resolution is to allow for the existence of a reservoir for the extinctively challenged individuals. This is functionally similar to the concept of a 'refuge' in predator-prey systems and represents a state for the individuals in which they are immune from destruction. For what I call the 'frogspawn' problem, where only a few individuals survive to adulthood from a large number of eggs, we provide a simple explanation based on a Holling type 3 response and elaborate it by means of a suitable nonlinear age-structured model.

Accurately computing the electronic properties of a quantum ring.

A promising approach to study condensed-matter systems is to simulate them on an engineered quantum platform1-4. However, the accuracy needed to outperform classical methods has not been achieved so far. Here, using 18 superconducting qubits, we provide an experimental blueprint for an accurate condensed-matter simulator and demonstrate how to investigate fundamental electronic properties. We benchmark the underlying method by reconstructing the single-particle band structure of a one-dimensional wire. We demonstrate nearly complete mitigation of decoherence and readout errors, and measure the energy eigenvalues of this wire with an error of approximately 0.01 rad, whereas typical energy scales are of the order of 1 rad. Insight into the fidelity of this algorithm is gained by highlighting the robust properties of a Fourier transform, including the ability to resolve eigenenergies with a statistical uncertainty of 10-4 rad. We also synthesize magnetic flux and disordered local potentials, which are two key tenets of a condensed-matter system. When sweeping the magnetic flux we observe avoided level crossings in the spectrum, providing a detailed fingerprint of the spatial distribution of local disorder. By combining these methods we reconstruct electronic properties of the eigenstates, observing persistent currents and a strong suppression of conductance with added disorder. Our work describes an accurate method for quantum simulation5,6 and paves the way to study new quantum materials with superconducting qubits.

Mortality after surgery with SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: a population-wide epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily impacted elective and emergency surgery around the world. We aimed to confirm the incidence of perioperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and associated mortality after surgery. METHODS: Analysis of routine electronic health record data from NHS hospitals in England. We extracted data from Hospital Episode Statistics in England describing adult patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. The exposure was SARS-CoV-2 infection defined by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The primary outcome measure was 90 day in-hospital mortality. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Index of Multiple Deprivation, presence of cancer, surgical procedure type and admission acuity. Results are presented as n (%) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified 2 666 978 patients undergoing surgery of whom 28 777 (1.1%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 26 364 (1.0%) patients died in hospital. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a much greater risk of death (SARS-CoV-2: 6153/28 777 [21.4%] vs no SARS-CoV-2: 20 211/2 638 201 [0.8%]; OR=5.7 [95% CI, 5.5-5.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing elective surgery, 2412/1 857 586 (0.1%) had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 172/2412 (7.1%) died, compared with 1414/1 857 586 (0.1%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=25.8 [95% CI, 21.7-30.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing emergency surgery, 22 918/582 292 (3.9%) patients had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 5752/22 918 (25.1%) died, compared with 18 060/559 374 (3.4%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=5.5 [95% CI, 5.3-5.7]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The low incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHS surgical pathways suggests current infection prevention and control policies are highly effective. However, the high mortality amongst patients with SARS-CoV-2 suggests these precautions cannot be safely relaxed.

Removing leakage-induced correlated errors in superconducting quantum error correction.

Quantum computing can become scalable through error correction, but logical error rates only decrease with system size when physical errors are sufficiently uncorrelated. During computation, unused high energy levels of the qubits can become excited, creating leakage states that are long-lived and mobile. Particularly for superconducting transmon qubits, this leakage opens a path to errors that are correlated in space and time. Here, we report a reset protocol that returns a qubit to the ground state from all relevant higher level states. We test its performance with the bit-flip stabilizer code, a simplified version of the surface code for quantum error correction. We investigate the accumulation and dynamics of leakage during error correction. Using this protocol, we find lower rates of logical errors and an improved scaling and stability of error suppression with increasing qubit number. This demonstration provides a key step on the path towards scalable quantum computing.

Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 response required the cancellation of all but the most urgent surgical procedures. The number of cancelled surgical procedures owing to Covid-19, and the reintroduction of surgical acivirt, was modelled. METHODS: This was a modelling study using Hospital Episode Statistics data (2014-2019). Surgical procedures were grouped into four urgency classes. Expected numbers of surgical procedures performed between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021 were modelled. Procedure deficit was estimated using conservative assumptions and the gradual reintroduction of elective surgery from the 1 June 2020. Costs were calculated using NHS reference costs and are reported as millions or billions of euros. Estimates are reported with 95 per cent confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 4 547 534 (95 per cent c.i. 3 318 195 to 6 250 771) patients with a pooled mean age of 53.5 years were expected to undergo surgery between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021. By 31 May 2020, 749 247 (513 564 to 1 077 448) surgical procedures had been cancelled. Assuming that elective surgery is reintroduced gradually, 2 328 193 (1 483 834 - 3 450 043) patients will be awaiting surgery by 28 February 2021. The cost of delayed procedures is €5.3 (3.1 to 8.0) billion. Safe delivery of surgery during the pandemic will require substantial extra resources costing €526.8 (449.3 to 633.9) million. CONCLUSION: As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, provision of elective surgery will be delayed and associated with increased healthcare costs.

Quasi-steady uptake and bacterial community assembly in a mathematical model of soil-phosphorus mobility.

We mathematically model the uptake of phosphorus by a soil community consisting of a plant and two bacterial groups: copiotrophs and oligotrophs. Four equilibrium states emerge, one for each of the species monopolising the resource and dominating the community and one with coexistence of all species. We show that the dynamics are controlled by the ratio of chemical adsorption to bacterial death permitting either oscillatory states or quasi-steady uptake. We show how a steady state can emerge which has soil and plant nutrient content unresponsive to increased fertilization. However, the additional fertilization supports the copiotrophs leading to community reassembly. Our results demonstrate the importance of time-series measurements in nutrient uptake experiments.

Demonstrating a Continuous Set of Two-Qubit Gates for Near-Term Quantum Algorithms.

Quantum algorithms offer a dramatic speedup for computational problems in material science and chemistry. However, any near-term realizations of these algorithms will need to be optimized to fit within the finite resources offered by existing noisy hardware. Here, taking advantage of the adjustable coupling of gmon qubits, we demonstrate a continuous two-qubit gate set that can provide a threefold reduction in circuit depth as compared to a standard decomposition. We implement two gate families: an imaginary swap-like (iSWAP-like) gate to attain an arbitrary swap angle, θ, and a controlled-phase gate that generates an arbitrary conditional phase, ϕ. Using one of each of these gates, we can perform an arbitrary two-qubit gate within the excitation-preserving subspace allowing for a complete implementation of the so-called Fermionic simulation (fSim) gate set. We benchmark the fidelity of the iSWAP-like and controlled-phase gate families as well as 525 other fSim gates spread evenly across the entire fSim(θ,ϕ) parameter space, achieving a purity-limited average two-qubit Pauli error of 3.8×10^{-3} per fSim gate.

Diabatic Gates for Frequency-Tunable Superconducting Qubits.

We demonstrate diabatic two-qubit gates with Pauli error rates down to 4.3(2)×10^{-3} in as fast as 18 ns using frequency-tunable superconducting qubits. This is achieved by synchronizing the entangling parameters with minima in the leakage channel. The synchronization shows a landscape in gate parameter space that agrees with model predictions and facilitates robust tune-up. We test both iswap-like and cphase gates with cross-entropy benchmarking. The presented approach can be extended to multibody operations as well.

Regularization of the Ostwald supersaturation model for Liesegang bands.

In a previous paper, we analysed the Keller-Rubinow formulation of Ostwald's supersaturation theory for the formation of Liesegang rings or Liesegang bands, and found that the model is ill-posed, in the sense that after the termination of the first crystal front growth, secondary bands form, as in the experiment, but these are numerically found to be a single grid space wide, and thus an artefact of the numerical method. This ill-posedness is due to the discontinuity in the crystal growth rate, which itself reflects the supersaturation threshold inherent in the theory. Here we show that the ill-posedness can be resolved by the inclusion of a relaxation mechanism describing an impurity coverage fraction, which physically enables the transition in heterogeneous nucleation from precipitate-free impurity to precipitate-covered impurity.