What Is the Potential Value of a Randomized Trial of Different Thresholds to Initiate Invasive Ventilation? A Health Economic Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the expected value of undertaking a future randomized controlled trial of thresholds used to initiate invasive ventilation compared with usual care in hypoxemic respiratory failure. PERSPECTIVE: Publicly funded healthcare payer. SETTING: Critical care units capable of providing invasive ventilation and unconstrained by resource limitations during usual (nonpandemic) practice. METHODS: We performed a model-based cost-utility estimation with individual-level simulation and value-of-information analysis focused on adults, admitted to critical care, receiving noninvasive oxygen. In the primary scenario, we compared hypothetical threshold A to usual care, where threshold A resulted in increased use of invasive ventilation and improved survival compared with usual care. In the secondary scenario, we compared hypothetical threshold B to usual care, where threshold B resulted in decreased use of invasive ventilation and similar survival compared with usual care. We assumed a willingness-to-pay of 100,000 Canadian dollars (CADs) per quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: In the primary scenario, threshold A was cost-effective compared with usual care due to improved hospital survival (78.1% vs. 75.1%), despite more use of invasive ventilation (62% vs. 30%) and higher lifetime costs (86,900 vs. 75,500 CAD). In the secondary scenario, threshold B was cost-effective compared with usual care due to similar survival (74.5% vs. 74.6%) with less use of invasive ventilation (20.2% vs. 27.6%) and lower lifetime costs (71,700 vs. 74,700 CAD). Value-of-information analysis showed that the expected value to Canadian society over 10 years of a 400-person randomized trial comparing a threshold for invasive ventilation to usual care in hypoxemic respiratory failure was 1.35 billion CAD or more in both scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: It would be highly valuable to society to identify thresholds that, in comparison to usual care, either increase survival or reduce invasive ventilation without reducing survival.

Socioeconomic Status, Palliative Care, and Death at Home Among Patients With Cancer Before and During COVID-19.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the delivery of cancer care, but less is known about its association with place of death and delivery of specialized palliative care (SPC) and potential disparities in these outcomes. Objective: To evaluate the association of the COVID-19 pandemic with death at home and SPC delivery at the end of life and to examine whether disparities in socioeconomic status exist for these outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, an interrupted time series analysis was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry data comprising adult patients aged 18 years or older who died with cancer between the pre-COVID-19 (March 16, 2015, to March 15, 2020) and COVID-19 (March 16, 2020, to March 15, 2021) periods. The data analysis was performed between March and November 2023. Exposure: COVID-19-related hospital restrictions starting March 16, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were death at home and SPC delivery at the end of life (last 30 days before death). Socioeconomic status was measured using Ontario Marginalization Index area-based material deprivation quintiles, with quintile 1 (Q1) indicating the least deprivation; Q3, intermediate deprivation; and Q5, the most deprivation. Segmented linear regression was used to estimate monthly trends in outcomes before, at the start of, and in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: Of 173 915 patients in the study cohort (mean [SD] age, 72.1 [12.5] years; males, 54.1% [95% CI, 53.8%-54.3%]), 83.7% (95% CI, 83.6%-83.9%) died in the pre-COVID-19 period and 16.3% (95% CI, 16.1%-16.4%) died in the COVID-19 period, 54.5% (95% CI, 54.2%-54.7%) died at home during the entire study period, and 57.8% (95% CI, 57.5%-58.0%) received SPC at the end of life. In March 2020, home deaths increased by 8.3% (95% CI, 7.4%-9.1%); however, this increase was less marked in Q5 (6.1%; 95% CI, 4.4%-7.8%) than in Q1 (11.4%; 95% CI, 9.6%-13.2%) and Q3 (10.0%; 95% CI, 9.0%-11.1%). There was a simultaneous decrease of 5.3% (95% CI, -6.3% to -4.4%) in the rate of SPC at the end of life, with no significant difference among quintiles. Patients who received SPC at the end of life (vs no SPC) were more likely to die at home before and during the pandemic. However, there was a larger immediate increase in home deaths among those who received no SPC at the end of life vs those who received SPC (Q1, 17.5% [95% CI, 15.2%-19.8%] vs 7.6% [95% CI, 5.4%-9.7%]; Q3, 12.7% [95% CI, 10.8%-14.5%] vs 9.0% [95% CI, 7.2%-10.7%]). For Q5, the increase in home deaths was significant only for patients who did not receive SPC (13.9% [95% CI, 11.9%-15.8%] vs 1.2% [95% CI, -1.0% to 3.5%]). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with amplified socioeconomic disparities in death at home and SPC delivery at the end of life. Future research should focus on the mechanisms of these disparities and on developing interventions to ensure equitable and consistent SPC access.

Evaluating the impact of a SIMPlified LaYered consent process on recruitment of potential participants to the Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform trial: study protocol for a multicentre pragmatic nested randomised clinical trial (SIMPLY-SNAP trial).

INTRODUCTION: Informed consent forms (ICFs) for randomised clinical trials (RCTs) can be onerous and lengthy. The process has the potential to overwhelm patients with information, leading them to miss elements of the study that are critical for an informed decision. Specifically, overly long and complicated ICFs have the potential to increase barriers to trial participation for patients with mild cognitive impairment, those who do not speak English as a first language or among those with lower medical literacy. In turn, this can influence trial recruitment, completion and external validity. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: SIMPLY-SNAP is a pragmatic, multicentre, open-label, two-arm parallel-group superiority RCT, nested within a larger trial, the Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial. We will randomise potentially eligible participants of the SNAP trial 1:1 to a full-length ICF or a SIMPlified LaYered (SIMPLY) consent process where basic information is summarised with embedded hyperlinks to supplemental information and videos. The primary outcome is recruitment into the SNAP trial. Secondary outcomes include patient understanding of the clinical trial, patient and research staff satisfaction with the consent process, and time taken for consent. As an exploratory outcome, we will also compare measures of diversity (eg, gender, ethnicity), according to the consent process randomised to. The planned sample size will be 346 participants. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the ethics review board (Sunnybrook Health Sciences Research Ethics Board) at sites in Ontario. We will disseminate study results via the SNAP trial group and other collaborating clinical trial networks. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT06168474; www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov).

Association of delayed adequate antimicrobial treatment and organ dysfunction in pediatric bloodstream infections.

BACKGROUND: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) are associated with significant mortality and morbidity, including multiple organ dysfunction. We explored if delayed adequate antimicrobial treatment for children with BSIs is associated with change in organ dysfunction as measured by PELOD-2 scores. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of critically ill children <18 years old with BSIs. The primary outcome was change in PELOD-2 score between days 1 (index blood culture) and 5. The exposure variable was delayed administration of adequate antimicrobial therapy by ≥3 h from blood culture collection. We compared PELOD-2 score changes between those who received early and delayed treatment. RESULTS: Among 202 children, the median (interquartile range) time to adequate antimicrobial therapy was 7 (0.8-20.1) hours; 124 (61%) received delayed antimicrobial therapy. Patients who received early and delayed treatment had similar baseline characteristics. There was no significant difference in PELOD-2 score changes from days 1 and 5 between groups (PELOD-2 score difference -0.07, 95% CI -0.92 to 0.79, p = 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find an association between delayed adequate antimicrobial therapy and PELOD-2 score changes between days 1 and 5 from detection of BSI. PELOD-2 score was not sensitive for clinical effects of delayed antimicrobial treatment. IMPACT: In critically ill children with bloodstream infections, there was no significant change in organ dysfunction as measured by PELOD-2 scores between patients who received adequate antimicrobial therapy within 3 h of their initial positive blood culture and those who started after 3 h. Higher PELOD-2 scores on day 1 were associated with larger differences in PELOD-2 scores between days 1 and 5 from index positive blood cultures. Further study is required to determine if PELOD-2 or alternative measures of organ dysfunction could be used as primary outcome measures in trials of antimicrobial interventions in pediatric critical care research.

Trends in Delirium and New Antipsychotic and Benzodiazepine Use Among Hospitalized Older Adults Before and After the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic caused large disruptions to health care for hospitalized older adults. The incidence and management of delirium may have been affected by high rates of COVID-19 infection, staffing shortages, overwhelmed hospital capacity, and changes to visitor policies. Objective: To measure changes in rates of delirium and related medication prescribing during the COVID-19 pandemic among hospitalized older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, repeated cross-sectional study used linked databases to measure rates of delirium and related medication prescriptions among adults aged 66 years or older hospitalized before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (January 1, 2017, to March 31, 2022) in Ontario, Canada. Exposure: The first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2022). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were weekly rates of delirium per 1000 admitted population and monthly rates of new antipsychotic and benzodiazepine prescriptions per 1000 discharged population. Observed rates were compared with projected rates based on modeling from 3 years before pandemic onset. Results: Among 2 128 411 hospitalizations of older adults over the 5-year study period (50.7% female; mean [SD] age, 78.9 [8.3] years), absolute rates of delirium increased from 35.9 per 1000 admitted population during the prepandemic period to 41.5 per 1000 admitted population throughout the pandemic. The adjusted rate ratio (ARR) of delirium during the pandemic compared with the projected rate was 1.15 (95% CI, 1.11-1.19). Monthly rates of new antipsychotic prescriptions increased from 6.9 to 8.8 per 1000 discharged population and new benzodiazepine prescriptions from 4.4 to 6.0 per 1000 discharged population and were significantly higher during the pandemic compared with projected rates (antipsychotics: ARR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.19-1.38; benzodiazepines: ARR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.20-1.57). Rates were highest during pandemic waves 1 (March to June 2020), 3 (March to June 2021), and 5 (December 2021 to February 2022) and remained elevated above projected levels throughout the first 2 years of the pandemic. Conclusions and Relevance: In this repeated cross-sectional study of hospitalized older adults, there was a temporal association between COVID-19 pandemic onset and significant increases in rates of delirium in the hospital and new antipsychotic and benzodiazepine prescriptions after hospital discharge. Rates remained elevated over 2 years. Pandemic-related changes such as visitor restrictions, staff shortages, isolation practices, and reduced staff time at the bedside may have contributed to these trends.

Temporal Clustering of Critical Illness Events on Medical Wards.

Importance: Recognizing and preventing patient deterioration is important for hospital safety. Objective: To investigate whether critical illness events (in-hospital death or intensive care unit [ICU] transfer) are associated with greater risk of subsequent critical illness events for other patients on the same medical ward. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in 5 hospitals in Toronto, Canada, including 118 529 hospitalizations. Patients were admitted to general internal medicine wards between April 1, 2010, and October 31, 2017. Data were analyzed between January 1, 2020, and April 10, 2023. Exposures: Critical illness events (in-hospital death or ICU transfer). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the composite of in-hospital death or ICU transfer. The association between critical illness events on the same ward across 6-hour intervals was studied using discrete-time survival analysis, adjusting for patient and situational factors. The association between critical illness events on different comparable wards in the same hospital was measured as a negative control. Results: The cohort included 118 529 hospitalizations (median age, 72 years [IQR, 56-83 years]; 50.7% male). Death or ICU transfer occurred in 8785 hospitalizations (7.4%). Patients were more likely to experience the primary outcome after exposure to 1 prior event (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30-1.48) and more than 1 prior event (AOR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.33-1.68) in the prior 6-hour interval compared with no exposure. The exposure was associated with increased odds of subsequent ICU transfer (1 event: AOR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.54-1.81; >1 event: AOR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.79-2.36) but not death alone (1 event: AOR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.97-1.19; >1 event: AOR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09). There was no significant association between critical illness events on different wards within the same hospital. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this cohort study suggest that patients are more likely to be transferred to the ICU in the hours after another patient's critical illness event on the same ward. This phenomenon could have several explanations, including increased recognition of critical illness and preemptive ICU transfers, resource diversion to the first event, or fluctuations in ward or ICU capacity. Patient safety may be improved by better understanding the clustering of ICU transfers on medical wards.

Time required to initiate a clinical trial in Canada at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational research-in-motion study.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide essential evidence to inform practice, but the many necessary steps result in lengthy times to initiation, which is problematic in the case of rapidly emerging infections such as COVID-19. This study aimed to describe the start-up timelines for the Canadian Treatments for COVID-19 (CATCO) RCT. METHODS: We surveyed hospitals participating in CATCO and ethics submission sites using a structured data abstraction form. We measured durations from protocol receipt to site activation and to first patient enrolment, as well as durations of administrative processes, including research ethics board (REB) approval, contract execution and lead times between approvals to site activation. RESULTS: All 48 hospitals (26 academic, 22 community) and 4 ethics submission sites responded. The median time from protocol receipt to trial initiation was 111 days (interquartile range [IQR] 39-189 d, range 15-412 d). The median time between protocol receipt and REB submission was 41 days (IQR 10-56 d, range 4-195 d), from REB submission to approval, 4.5 days (IQR 1-12 d, range 0-169 d), from REB approval to site activation, 35 days (IQR 22-103 d, range 0-169 d), from protocol receipt to contract submission, 42 days (IQR 20-51 d, range 4-237 d), from contract submission to full contract execution, 24 days (IQR 15-58 d, range 5-164 d) and from contract execution to site activation, 10 days (IQR 6-27 d, range 0-216 d). Processes took longer in community hospitals than in academic hospitals. INTERPRETATION: The time required to initiate RCTs in Canada was lengthy and varied among sites. Adoption of template clinical trial agreements, greater harmonization or central coordination of ethics submissions, and long-term funding of platform trials that engage academic and community hospitals are potential solutions to improve trial start-up efficiency.

Oxygenation thresholds for invasive ventilation in hypoxemic respiratory failure: a target trial emulation in two cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The optimal thresholds for the initiation of invasive ventilation in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure are unknown. Using the saturation-to-inspired oxygen ratio (SF), we compared lower versus higher hypoxemia severity thresholds for initiating invasive ventilation. METHODS: This target trial emulation included patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV, 2008-2019) and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers (AmsterdamUMCdb, 2003-2016) databases admitted to intensive care and receiving inspired oxygen fraction ≥ 0.4 via non-rebreather mask, noninvasive ventilation, or high-flow nasal cannula. We compared the effect of using invasive ventilation initiation thresholds of SF < 110, < 98, and < 88 on 28-day mortality. MIMIC-IV was used for the primary analysis and AmsterdamUMCdb for the secondary analysis. We obtained posterior means and 95% credible intervals (CrI) with nonparametric Bayesian G-computation. RESULTS: We studied 3,357 patients in the primary analysis. For invasive ventilation initiation thresholds SF < 110, SF < 98, and SF < 88, the predicted 28-day probabilities of invasive ventilation were 72%, 47%, and 19%. Predicted 28-day mortality was lowest with threshold SF < 110 (22.2%, CrI 19.2 to 25.0), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk increase 1.6%, CrI 0.6 to 2.6) or SF < 88 (absolute risk increase 3.5%, CrI 1.4 to 5.4). In the secondary analysis (1,279 patients), the predicted 28-day probability of invasive ventilation was 50% for initiation threshold SF < 110, 28% for SF < 98, and 19% for SF < 88. In contrast with the primary analysis, predicted mortality was highest with threshold SF < 110 (14.6%, CrI 7.7 to 22.3), compared to SF < 98 (absolute risk decrease 0.5%, CrI 0.0 to 0.9) or SF < 88 (absolute risk decrease 1.9%, CrI 0.9 to 2.8). CONCLUSION: Initiating invasive ventilation at lower hypoxemia severity will increase the rate of invasive ventilation, but this can either increase or decrease the expected mortality, with the direction of effect likely depending on baseline mortality risk and clinical context.

Safety Outcomes of Direct Discharge Home From ICUs: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (Direct From ICU Sent Home Study).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of direct discharge home (DDH) from ICUs compared with ward transfer on safety outcomes of readmissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and mortality. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature from inception until March 28, 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized and nonrandomized studies of DDH patients compared with ward transfer were eligible. DATA EXTRACTION: We screened and extracted studies independently and in duplicate. We assessed risk of bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies. A random-effects meta-analysis model and heterogeneity assessment was performed using pooled data (inverse variance) for propensity-matched and unadjusted cohorts. We assessed the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome using the Grading Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. DATA SYNTHESIS: Of 10,228 citations identified, we included six studies. Of these, three high-quality studies, which enrolled 49,376 patients in propensity-matched cohorts, could be pooled using meta-analysis. For DDH from ICU, compared with ward transfers, there was no difference in the risk of ED visits at 30-day (22.4% vs 22.7%; relative risk [RR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.95-1.02; p = 0.39; low certainty); hospital readmissions at 30-day (9.8% vs 9.6%; RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.91-1.15; p = 0.71; very low-to-low certainty); or 90-day mortality (2.8% vs 2.6%; RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.95-1.18; p = 0.29; very low-to-low certainty). There were no important differences in the unmatched cohorts or across subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Very low-to-low certainty evidence from observational studies suggests that DDH from ICU may have no difference in safety outcomes compared with ward transfer of selected ICU patients. In the future, this research question could be further examined by randomized control trials to provide higher certainty data.

Outpatient Mental Health Follow-up and Recurrent Self-harm and Suicide Among Patients Admitted to the ICU for Self-harm: A Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients surviving an ICU admission for deliberate self-harm are at high risk of recurrent self-harm or suicide after discharge. It is unknown whether mental health follow-up after discharge (with either a family physician or psychiatrist) reduces this risk. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the association between mental health follow-up after discharge and recurrent self-harm among patients admitted to the ICU for intentional self-harm? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Population-based cohort study of consecutive adults (≥ 18 years of age) from Ontario, Canada, who were admitted to ICU because of intentional self-harm between 2009 and 2017. We categorized patients according to follow-up, with 'early follow-up' indicating 1 to 21 days after discharge, 'late follow-up' indicating 22 to 60 days after discharge, and 'no follow-up' indicating no follow-up within 60 days of discharge. We conducted analyses using a cause-specific extended Cox regression model to account for varying time for mental health follow-up relative to the outcomes of interest. The primary outcome was recurrent ICU admission for self-harm within 1 year of discharge. RESULTS: We included 9,569 consecutive adults admitted to the ICU for deliberate self-harm. Compared with receiving no mental health follow-up, both early follow-up (hazard ratio [HR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07-1.75) and late follow-up (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.22-2.35) were associated with increased risk in recurrent ICU admission for self-harm. As compared with no follow-up, neither early follow-up (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.70-1.73) nor late follow-up (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.84-2.83) were associated with increased risk of death by suicide. INTERPREATION: Among adults admitted to the ICU for deliberate self-harm, mental health follow-up after discharge was not associated with reduced risk of recurrent ICU admission for self-harm or death resulting from suicide, and patients seeking outpatient follow-up may be those at highest risk of these outcomes. Future research should focus on additional and novel methods of risk mitigation in this vulnerable population.

Do Thresholds for Invasive Ventilation in Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure Exist? A Cohort Study.

Rationale: Invasive ventilation is a significant event for patients with respiratory failure. Physiologic thresholds standardize the use of invasive ventilation in clinical trials, but it is unknown whether thresholds prompt invasive ventilation in clinical practice. Objectives: To measure, in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure, the probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours after meeting physiologic thresholds. Methods: We studied patients admitted to intensive care receiving FiO2 of 0.4 or more via nonrebreather mask, noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, or high-flow nasal cannula, using data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database (2008-2019) and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers Database (AmsterdamUMCdb) (2003-2016). We evaluated 17 thresholds, including the ratio of arterial to inspired oxygen, the ratio of saturation to inspired oxygen ratio, composite scores, and criteria from randomized trials. We report the probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours of meeting each threshold and its association with covariates using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Measurements and Main Results: We studied 4,726 patients (3,365 from MIMIC, 1,361 from AmsterdamUMCdb). Invasive ventilation occurred in 28% (1,320). In MIMIC, the highest probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours of meeting a threshold was 20%, after meeting prespecified neurologic or respiratory criteria while on vasopressors, and 19%, after a ratio of arterial to inspired oxygen of <80 mm Hg. In AmsterdamUMCdb, the highest probability was 34%, after vasopressor initiation, and 25%, after a ratio of saturation to inspired oxygen of <90. The probability after meeting the threshold from randomized trials was 9% (MIMIC) and 13% (AmsterdamUMCdb). In MIMIC, a race/ethnicity of Black (OR, 0.75; 95% CrI, 0.57-0.96) or Asian (OR, 0.6; 95% CrI, 0.35-0.95) compared with White was associated with decreased probability of invasive ventilation after meeting a threshold. Conclusions: The probability of invasive ventilation within 3 hours of meeting physiologic thresholds was low and associated with patient race/ethnicity.

Health economic evaluation alongside the Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial (E-PROSPECT): a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PURPOSE: We sought to compare the cost-effectiveness of probiotics and usual care with usual care without probiotics in mechanically ventilated, intensive care unit patients alongside the Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial (PROSPECT). METHODS: We conducted a health economic evaluation alongside the PROSPECT randomized control trial (October 2013-March 2019). We adopted a public healthcare payer's perspective. Forty-four intensive care units in three countries (Canada/USA/Saudi Arabia) with adult critically ill, mechanically ventilated patients (N = 2,650) were included. Interventions were probiotics (Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG) vs placebo administered enterally twice daily. We collected healthcare resource use and estimated unit costs in 2019 United States dollars (USD) over a time horizon from randomization to hospital discharge/death. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing probiotics vs usual care. The primary outcome was incremental cost per ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) event averted; secondary outcomes were costs per Clostridioides difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD), antibiotic-associated diarrhea (AAD), and mortality averted. Uncertainty was investigated using nonparametric bootstrapping and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation [SD]) cost per patient was USD 66,914 (91,098) for patients randomized to probiotics, with a median [interquartile range (IQR)] of USD 42,947 [22,239 to 76,205]. By comparison, for those not receiving probiotics, mean (SD) cost per patient was USD 62,701 (78,676) (median [IQR], USD 41,102 [23,170 to 75,140]; incremental cost, USD 4,213; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2,269 to 10,708). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for VAP or AAD events averted, probiotics were dominated by usual care (more expensive, with similar effectiveness). The ICERs were USD 1,473,400 per CDAD event averted (95% CI, undefined) and USD 396,764 per death averted (95% CI, undefined). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves reveal that probiotics were not cost-effective across wide ranges of plausible willingness-to-pay thresholds. Sensitivity analyses did not change the conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Probiotics for VAP prevention among critically ill patients were not cost-effective. Study registration data www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov (NCT01782755); registered 4 February 2013.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Nous avons cherché à comparer le rapport coût-efficacité d'un traitement avec probiotiques ajoutés aux soins habituels avec des soins habituels prodigués sans probiotiques chez les patients des soins intensifs sous ventilation mécanique dans le cadre de l'étude PROSPECT (Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial). MéTHODE: Nous avons réalisé une évaluation de l'économie de la santé parallèlement à l'étude randomisée contrôlée PROSPECT (octobre 2013-mars 2019). Nous avons adopté le point de vue d'un payeur public de services de santé. Quarante-quatre unités de soins intensifs dans trois pays (Canada/États-Unis/Arabie saoudite) prenant soin de patients adultes gravement malades sous ventilation mécanique (n = 2650) ont été inclus. Les interventions ont été les suivantes : probiotiques (Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG) vs placebo administrés par voie entérale deux fois par jour. Nous avons recueilli les données concernant l'utilisation des ressources en soins de santé et estimé les coûts unitaires en dollars américains (USD) de 2019 sur un horizon temporel allant de la randomisation au congé de l'hôpital / décès. Nous avons calculé des rapports coût-efficacité différentiels (RCED) en comparant les probiotiques vs les soins habituels. Le critère d'évaluation principal était le coût différentiel par événement évité de pneumonie associée au ventilateur (PAV); les critères d'évaluation secondaires étaient les coûts par diarrhée associée au Clostridioides difficile (DACD), diarrhée associée aux antibiotiques (DAA) et mortalité évitées. L'incertitude a été étudiée à l'aide d'analyses d'amorçage et de sensibilité non paramétriques. RéSULTATS: Le coût moyen (écart type [ÉT]) par patient était de 66 914 (91 098) USD pour les patients randomisés au groupe probiotiques, avec une médiane [écart interquartile (ÉIQ)] de 42 947 USD [22 239 à 76 205]. En comparaison, pour ceux ne recevant pas de probiotiques, le coût moyen (ÉT) par patient était de 62 701 USD (78 676) (médiane [ÉIQ], 41 102 USD [23 170 à 75 140]; coût différentiel, 4213 USD; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95%, -2269 à 10 708). En matière de rapports coût-efficacité différentiels pour les événements de PAV ou DAA évités, les probiotiques étaient dominés par les soins habituels (plus coûteux, avec une efficacité similaire). Les RCED étaient de 1 473 400 USD par événement de DACD évitée (IC 95 %, non défini) et de 396 764 USD par décès évité (IC 95 %, non défini). Les courbes d'acceptabilité coût-efficacité révèlent que les probiotiques n'étaient pas rentables dans de larges gammes de seuils plausibles de volonté de payer. Les analyses de sensibilité n'ont pas modifié les conclusions. CONCLUSION: Les probiotiques utilisés pour prévenir la PAV chez les patients gravement malades n'étaient pas rentables. Enregistrement de l'étude : www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01782755); enregistrée le 4 février 2013.

Association of Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation With New Mental Health Diagnoses in Adult Survivors of Critical Illness.

Importance: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is used as temporary cardiorespiratory support in critically ill patients, but little is known regarding long-term psychiatric sequelae among survivors after ECMO. Objective: To investigate the association between ECMO survivorship and postdischarge mental health diagnoses among adult survivors of critical illness. Design, Setting, and Participants: Population-based retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada, from April 1, 2010, through March 31, 2020. Adult patients (N=4462; age ≥18 years) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), and surviving to hospital discharge were included. Exposures: Receipt of ECMO. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a new mental health diagnosis (a composite of mood disorders, anxiety disorders, posttraumatic stress disorder; schizophrenia, other psychotic disorders; other mental health disorders; and social problems) following discharge. There were 8 secondary outcomes including incidence of substance misuse, deliberate self-harm, death by suicide, and individual components of the composite primary outcome. Patients were compared with ICU survivors not receiving ECMO using overlap propensity score-weighted cause-specific proportional hazard models. Results: Among 642 survivors who received ECMO (mean age, 50.7 years; 40.7% female), median length of follow-up was 730 days; among 3820 matched ICU survivors who did not receive ECMO (mean age, 51.0 years; 40.0% female), median length of follow-up was 1390 days. Incidence of new mental health conditions among survivors who received ECMO was 22.1 per 100-person years (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.5-25.1), and 14.5 per 100-person years (95% CI, 13.8-15.2) among non-ECMO ICU survivors (absolute rate difference of 7.6 per 100-person years [95% CI, 4.7-10.5]). Following propensity weighting, ECMO survivorship was significantly associated with an increased risk of new mental health diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24 [95% CI, 1.01-1.52]). There were no significant differences between survivors who received ECMO vs ICU survivors who did not receive ECMO in substance misuse (1.6 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.4] per 100 person-years vs 1.4 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.6] per 100 person-years; absolute rate difference, 0.2 per 100 person-years [95% CI, -0.4 to 0.8]; HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.48 to 1.53]) or deliberate self-harm (0.4 [95% CI, 0.2 to 0.9] per 100 person-years vs 0.3 [95% CI, 0.2 to 0.3] per 100 person-years; absolute rate difference, 0.1 per 100 person-years [95% CI, -0.2 to 0.4]; HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.21 to 2.23]). There were fewer than 5 total cases of death by suicide in the entire cohort. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adult survivors of critical illness, receipt of ECMO, compared with ICU hospitalization without ECMO, was significantly associated with a modestly increased risk of new mental health diagnosis or social problem diagnosis after discharge. Further research is necessary to elucidate the potential mechanisms underlying this relationship.

Heterogeneity of treatment effect of interferon-ß1b and lopinavir-ritonavir in patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome by cytokine levels.

Animal and human data indicate variable effects of interferons in treating coronavirus infections according to inflammatory status and timing of therapy. In this sub-study of the MIRACLE trial (MERS-CoV Infection Treated with a Combination of Lopinavir-Ritonavir and Interferon ß-1b), we evaluated the heterogeneity of treatment effect of interferon-ß1b and lopinavir-ritonavir versus placebo among hospitalized patients with MERS on 90-day mortality, according to cytokine levels and timing of therapy. We measured plasma levels of 17 cytokines at enrollment and tested the treatment effect on 90-day mortality according to cytokine levels (higher versus lower levels using the upper tertile (67%) as a cutoff point) and time to treatment (≤ 7 days versus > 7 days of symptom onset) using interaction tests. Among 70 included patients, 32 received interferon-ß1b and lopinavir-ritonavir and 38 received placebo. Interferon-ß1b and lopinavir-ritonavir reduced mortality in patients with lower IL-2, IL-8 and IL-13 plasma concentrations but not in patients with higher levels (p-value for interaction = 0.09, 0.07, and 0.05, respectively) and with early but not late therapy (p = 0.002). There was no statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effect according to other cytokine levels. Further work is needed to evaluate whether the assessment of inflammatory status can help in identifying patients with MERS who may benefit from interferon-ß1b and lopinavir-ritonavir. Trial registration: This is a sub-study of the MIRACLE trial (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02845843).

Respiratory support in patients with severe COVID-19 in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection (ISARIC) COVID-19 study: a prospective, multinational, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Up to 30% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 require advanced respiratory support, including high-flow nasal cannulas (HFNC), non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIV), or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for failing non-invasive respiratory support in patients treated with severe COVID-19 during the first two years of the pandemic in high-income countries (HICs) and low middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: This is a multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study embedded in the ISARIC-WHO COVID-19 Clinical Characterisation Protocol. Patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who required hospital admission were recruited prospectively. Patients treated with HFNC, NIV, or IMV within the first 24 h of hospital admission were included in this study. Descriptive statistics, random forest, and logistic regression analyses were used to describe clinical characteristics and compare clinical outcomes among patients treated with the different types of advanced respiratory support. RESULTS: A total of 66,565 patients were included in this study. Overall, 82.6% of patients were treated in HIC, and 40.6% were admitted to the hospital during the first pandemic wave. During the first 24 h after hospital admission, patients in HICs were more frequently treated with HFNC (48.0%), followed by NIV (38.6%) and IMV (13.4%). In contrast, patients admitted in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were less frequently treated with HFNC (16.1%) and the majority received IMV (59.1%). The failure rate of non-invasive respiratory support (i.e. HFNC or NIV) was 15.5%, of which 71.2% were from HIC and 28.8% from LMIC. The variables most strongly associated with non-invasive ventilation failure, defined as progression to IMV, were high leukocyte counts at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 5.86 [4.83-7.10]), treatment in an LMIC (OR [95%CI]; 2.04 [1.97-2.11]), and tachypnoea at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 1.16 [1.14-1.18]). Patients who failed HFNC/NIV had a higher 28-day fatality ratio (OR [95%CI]; 1.27 [1.25-1.30]). CONCLUSIONS: In the present international cohort, the most frequently used advanced respiratory support was the HFNC. However, IMV was used more often in LMIC. Higher leucocyte count, tachypnoea, and treatment in LMIC were risk factors for HFNC/NIV failure. HFNC/NIV failure was related to worse clinical outcomes, such as 28-day mortality. Trial registration This is a prospective observational study; therefore, no health care interventions were applied to participants, and trial registration is not applicable.

Impact of restricted visitation policies during COVID-19 on critically ill adults, their families, critical care clinicians, and decision-makers: a qualitative interview study.

PURPOSE: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, restricted visitation policies were enacted at acute care facilities to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and conserve personal protective equipment. In this study, we aimed to describe the impact of restricted visitation policies on critically ill patients, families, critical care clinicians, and decision-makers; highlight the challenges faced in translating these policies into practice; and delineate strategies to mitigate their effects. METHOD: A qualitative description design was used. We conducted semistructured interviews with critically ill adult patients and their family members, critical care clinicians, and decision-makers (i.e., policy makers or enforcers) affected by restricted visitation policies. We transcribed semistructured interviews verbatim and analyzed the transcripts using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Three patients, eight family members, 30 clinicians (13 physicians, 17 nurses from 23 Canadian intensive care units [ICUs]), and three decision-makers participated in interviews. Thematic analysis was used to identify five themes: 1) acceptance of restricted visitation (e.g., accepting with concerns); 2) impact of restricted visitation (e.g., ethical challenges, moral distress, patients dying alone, intensified workload); 3) trust in the healthcare system during the pandemic (e.g., mistrust of clinical team); 4) modes of communication (e.g., communication using virtual platforms); and 5) impact of policy implementation on clinical practice (e.g., frequent changes and inconsistent implementation). CONCLUSIONS: Restricted visitation policies across ICUs during the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected critically ill patients and their families, critical care clinicians, and decision-makers.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Au cours de la première vague de la pandémie de COVID-19, des politiques de visite restreintes ont été adoptées dans les établissements de soins aigus afin de réduire la propagation de la COVID-19 et d'économiser les équipements de protection individuelle. Dans cette étude, nous avons cherché à décrire l'impact des politiques de visite restreintes sur les patients gravement malades, les familles, les intensivistes et les décideurs, ainsi qu'à souligner les difficultés rencontrées dans la mise en pratique de ces politiques et à définir des stratégies pour en atténuer les effets. MéTHODE: Une méthodologie de description qualitative a été utilisée. Nous avons mené des entretiens semi-structurés avec des patients adultes gravement malades et les membres de leur famille, les intensivistes et les décideurs (c.-à-d. les stratèges ou les responsables de l'application de la loi) touchés par les politiques de visite restreintes. Nous avons transcrit textuellement les entretiens semi-structurés et analysé les transcriptions à l'aide d'une analyse thématique inductive. RéSULTATS: Trois patients, huit membres de leur famille, 30 cliniciens (13 médecins, 17 infirmières de 23 unités de soins intensifs canadiennes) et trois décideurs ont participé à ces entrevues. L'analyse thématique a été utilisée pour identifier cinq thèmes : 1) l'acceptation des visites restreintes (p. ex., accepter avec des préoccupations); 2) l'impact des visites restreintes (p. ex., défis éthiques, détresse morale, patients mourant seuls, charge de travail accrue); 3) la confiance dans le système de santé pendant la pandémie (p. ex., méfiance à l'égard de l'équipe clinique); 4) les modes de communication (p. ex., communication à l'aide de plateformes virtuelles); et 5) l'incidence de la mise en œuvre des politiques sur la pratique clinique (p. ex., changements fréquents et mise en œuvre incohérente). CONCLUSION: Les politiques de visite restreintes dans les unités de soins intensifs pendant la pandémie de COVID-19 ont eu un impact négatif sur les patients gravement malades et leurs familles, les intensivistes et les décideurs.

Antibiotic treatment duration for bloodstream infections in critically ill children-A survey of pediatric infectious diseases and critical care clinicians for clinical equipoise.

OBJECTIVE: To describe antibiotic treatment durations that pediatric infectious diseases (ID) and critical care clinicians usually recommend for bloodstream infections in critically ill children. DESIGN: Anonymous, online practice survey using five common pediatric-based case scenarios of bloodstream infections. SETTING: Pediatric intensive care units in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: Pediatric intensivists, nurse practitioners, ID physicians and pharmacists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recommended treatment durations for common infectious syndromes associated with bloodstream infections and willingness to enrol patients into a trial to study treatment duration. RESULTS: Among 136 survey respondents, most recommended at least 10 days antibiotics for bloodstream infections associated with: pneumonia (65%), skin/soft tissue (74%), urinary tract (64%) and intra-abdominal infections (drained: 90%; undrained: 99%). For central vascular catheter-associated infections without catheter removal, over 90% clinicians recommended at least 10 days antibiotics, except for infections caused by coagulase negative staphylococci (79%). Recommendations for at least 10 days antibiotics were less common with catheter removal. In multivariable linear regression analyses, lack of source control was significantly associated with longer treatment durations (+5.2 days [95% CI: 4.4-6.1 days] for intra-abdominal infections and +4.1 days [95% CI: 3.8-4.4 days] for central vascular catheter-associated infections). Most clinicians (73-95%, depending on the source of bloodstream infection) would be willing to enrol patients into a trial of shorter versus longer antibiotic treatment duration. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of clinicians currently recommend at least 10 days of antibiotics for most scenarios of bloodstream infections in critically ill children. There is practice heterogeneity in self-reported treatment duration recommendations among clinicians. Treatment durations were similar across different infectious syndromes. Under appropriate clinical conditions, most clinicians would be willing to enrol patients into a trial of shorter versus longer treatment for common syndromes associated with bloodstream infections.

Location and outcomes of rehospitalizations after critical illness in a single-payer healthcare system.

PURPOSE: Unplanned rehospitalization at a hospital other than the initial hospital may contribute to poor outcomes. We examined the location of rehospitalizations and assessed outcomes following critical illness in a single-payer healthcare system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort study using linked datasets (2012-2017) from Ontario, Canada including adults (≥18 years) with an unplanned rehospitalization within 30-days after an index hospitalization that included an ICU stay with mechanical ventilation. Outcomes were the percentage of 30-day rehospitalizations at non-index hospitals, mortality and costs. We employed logistic regression and generalized linear models to assess associations. RESULTS: There were 14,997 (16.4%) 30-day rehospitalizations. Of these 2765 (18.4%) occurred in a non-index hospital. Distance of home residence from the index hospital was the strongest predictor of a non-index rehospitalization (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 8.40, 95%CI 7.05-10.01, highest vs. lowest distance quintile). Within 30-days of rehospitalization, deaths (aOR 0.91, 95%CI (0.80-1.04)) and total healthcare costs (adjusted relative risk 1.03 (1.00-1.06)), were similar for patients readmitted to the index or a non-index hospital. CONCLUSION: Non-index rehospitalization within 30-days of initial discharge is common following critical illness. These rehospitalizations were not significantly associated with an increased risk of harm or higher costs in a single-payer healthcare system.

Noninferiority Margin Size and Acceptance of Trial Results: Contingent Valuation Survey of Clinician Preferences for Noninferior Mortality.

OBJECTIVES: We used modified contingent valuation methodology to determine how noninferiority margin sizes influence clinicians' willingness to accept clinical trial results that compare mortality in critically ill children. METHODS: We surveyed pediatric infectious diseases and critical care clinicians in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand and randomized respondents to review 1 of 9 mock abstracts describing a noninferiority trial of bacteremic critically ill children assigned to 7 or 14 d of antibiotics. Each scenario showed higher mortality in the 7-d group but met noninferiority criterion. We explored how noninferiority margins and baseline mortality rates influenced respondent acceptance of results. RESULTS: There were 106 survey respondents: 65 (61%) critical care clinicians, 28 (26%) infectious diseases physicians, and 13 (12%) pharmacists. When noninferiority margins were 5% and 10%, 73% (24/33) and 79% (27/33) respondents would accept shorter treatment, compared with 44% (17/39) when the margin was 20% (P = 0.003). Logistic regression adjusted for baseline mortality showed 5% and 10% noninferiority margins were more likely to be associated with acceptance of shorter treatment compared with 20% margins (odds ratio [OR] 3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-9.6, P = 0.013; OR 5.1, 95% CI: 1.8-14.6, P = 0.002). Baseline mortality was not a significant predictor of acceptance of shorter treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians are more likely to accept shorter treatment when noninferiority margins are ≤10%. However, nearly half of respondents who reviewed abstracts with 20% margins were still willing to accept shorter treatment. This is a novel application of contingent valuation methodology to elicit acceptance of research results among end users of the medical literature. HIGHLIGHTS: Clinicians are more likely to accept shorter treatment durations based on noninferior mortality results when the noninferiority margin is 5% or 10% than if the margin is 20%.However, nearly half of clinicians would still accept shorter-duration treatment as noninferior with margins of 20%.Baseline mortality does not independently predict acceptance of shorter-duration treatment.Contingent valuation is a novel approach to elicit the acceptance of research design parameters from the perspective of endusers of the medical literature.

Antimicrobial treatment duration for uncomplicated bloodstream infections in critically ill children: a multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) cause significant morbidity and mortality in critically ill children but treatment duration is understudied. We describe the durations of antimicrobial treatment that critically ill children receive and explore factors associated with treatment duration. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study in six pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) across Canada. Associations between treatment duration and patient-, infection- and pathogen-related characteristics were explored using multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: Among 187 critically ill children with BSIs, the median duration of antimicrobial treatment was 15 (IQR 11-25) days. Median treatment durations were longer than two weeks for all subjects with known sources of infection: catheter-related 16 (IQR 11-24), respiratory 15 (IQR 11-26), intra-abdominal 20 (IQR 14-26), skin/soft tissue 17 (IQR 15-33), urinary 17 (IQR 15-35), central nervous system 33 (IQR 15-46) and other sources 29.5 (IQR 15-55) days. When sources of infection were unclear, the median duration was 13 (IQR 10-16) days. Treatment durations varied widely within and across PICUs. In multivariable linear regression, longer treatment durations were associated with severity of illness (+ 0.4 days longer [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.1 to 0.7, p = 0.007] per unit increase in PRISM-IV) and central nervous system infection (+ 17 days [95% CI, 6.7 to 27.4], p = 0.001). Age and pathogen type were not associated with treatment duration. CONCLUSIONS: Most critically ill children with BSIs received at least two weeks of antimicrobial treatment. Further study is needed to determine whether shorter duration therapy would be effective for selected critically ill children.