Using social network analysis to examine gun violence.

Research has found gun violence is a social contagion that spreads from one individual to another. To understand the social networks of violence, previous research has used social network analysis, a tool that explores the relationships between social actors. Most of the prior research uses coarrest data and incident reports to produce social networks. The current study incorporates the use of an underused data source, ballistic evidence, to better understand gun violence. The aim was to identify drivers of gun violence and to examine network concentration. Specifically, National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) leads and associated criminal incidents in combination with all incident reports were collected from a large urban county in the Pacific Northwest between 2015 and 2017. Social network analysis was conducted to produce a NIBIN network to demonstrate the connections between incidents where the same firearm was used. Social network analysis was also conducted to identify individuals who were the most involved in gun violence. Results reveal gun violence is very interconnected as many of the same firearms were discharged in multiple different incidents with several other individuals involved, indicating a connection between these individuals. This demonstrates the utility of using ballistic evidence beyond using only incident and coarrest data because it provides more information that directly relates to gun violence and the transfer of guns. Additionally, this can be very useful for law enforcement agencies to identify who is integral in the gun violence networks that can be helpful for prevention and intervention strategies.

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System.

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

Predicting Violent Victimization Using Social Network Analysis From Police Data.

Extant research suggests that membership in crime networks explains vulnerability to violent crime victimization. Consequently, identifying deviant social networks and understanding their structure and individual members' role in them could provide insight into victimization risk. Identifying social networks may help tailor crime prevention strategies to mitigate victimization risks and dismantle deviant networks. Social network analysis (SNA) offers a particular means of comprehending and measuring such group-level structures and the roles that individuals play within them. When applied to research on crime and victimization, it could provide a foundation for developing precise, effective prevention, intervention, and suppression strategies. This study uses police data to examine whether individuals most central to a deviant social network are those who are most likely to become victims of violent crime, and which crime network roles are most likely to be associated with vulnerability to violent victimization. SNA of these data indicates that network individuals who are in a position to manage the flow of information in the network (betweenness centrality), regardless of their number of connections (degree centrality), are significantly more likely to be homicide and aggravated assault victims. Implications for police practice are discussed.

Constraining estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake: new opportunities using long-term satellite observations and data assimilation.

The response of terrestrial carbon uptake to increasing atmospheric [CO2 ], that is the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), remains a key area of uncertainty in carbon cycle science. Here we provide a perspective on how satellite observations could be better used to understand and constrain CFE. We then highlight data assimilation (DA) as an effective way to reconcile different satellite datasets and systematically constrain carbon uptake trends in Earth System Models. As a proof-of-concept, we show that joint DA of multiple independent satellite datasets reduced model ensemble error by better constraining unobservable processes and variables, including those directly impacted by CFE. DA of multiple satellite datasets offers a powerful technique that could improve understanding of CFE and enable more accurate forecasts of terrestrial carbon uptake.

Risk and protective factors associated with gang-involved youth in Trinidad and Tobago.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prevalence of gang involvement, the risk and protective factors associated with gang involvement, and the association between gang involvement and exposure to multiple risk and protective factors among school-aged youth in Trinidad and Tobago. METHODS: A survey instrument was administered to 2 206 students enrolled in 22 high-risk, urban public schools, from March-June 2006. It measured 30 risk factors and 13 protective factors within four domains: community, school, family, and peer-individual, plus levels of alcohol/drug use and delinquency. RESULTS: About 7.7% of youth reported being a gang associate; 6.8%, a former gang member; and 6.2%, a current gang member. Gang involvement was associated with perceived availability of handguns, residential mobility, having parents who favor antisocial behavior, early initiation of antisocial behavior, intention to use drugs, having antisocial peers, and having peers who use drugs. Those with social skills, belief in moral order, and interactions with prosocial peers were significantly less likely to self-report gang membership. Additionally, the probability of gang involvement increased as the number of risk factors increased. CONCLUSIONS: Gang membership among public school youth is about as prevalent in Trinidad and Tobago as it is in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe, but further research is needed. Although risk factors associated with gang involvement were present in all four domains, peer-individual risk factors were disproportionately likely to be associated with gang status. The most effective gang prevention strategies might be those that focus on multiple risk factors, with an emphasis on peer-individual factors and promoting a "belief in moral order."

Risk and protective factors associated with gang-involved youth in Trinidad and Tobago / Factores de riesgo y factores protectores asociados con la participación de los adolescentes en pandillas en Trinidad y Tabago

Objectives: To examine the prevalence of gang involvement, the risk and protective factors associated with gang involvement, and the association between gang involvement and exposure to multiple risk and protective factors among school-aged youth in Trinidad and Tobago. Methods: A survey instrument was administered to 2 206 students enrolled in 22 high-risk, urban public schools, from March-June 2006. It measured 30 risk factors and 13 protective factors within four domains: community, school, family, and peer-individual, plus levels of alcohol/drug use and delinquency. Results: About 7.7 percent of youth reported being a gang associate; 6.8 percent, a former gang member; and 6.2 percent, a current gang member. Gang involvement was associated with perceived availability of handguns, residential mobility, having parents who favor antisocial behavior, early initiation of antisocial behavior, intention to use drugs, having antisocial peers, and having peers who use drugs. Those with social skills, belief in moral order, and interactions with prosocial peers were significantly less likely to self-report gang membership. Additionally, the probability of gang involvement increased as the number of risk factors increased. Conclusions: Gang membership among public school youth is about as prevalent in Trinidad and Tobago as it is in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe, but further research is needed. Although risk factors associated with gang involvement were present in all four domains, peer-individual risk factors were disproportionately likely to be associated with gang status. The most effective gang prevention strategies might be those that focus on multiple risk factors, with an emphasis on peer-individual factors and promoting a "belief in moral order."

Objetivos: Examinar la prevalencia de la participación en pandillas, los factores de riesgo y los factores protectores asociados con la participación en pandillas, y la asociación entre la participación en pandillas y la exposición a diversos factores de riesgo y protectores en los adolescentes en edad escolar en Trinidad y Tabago. Métodos: Entre marzo y junio del 2006 se administró un instrumento de encuesta a 2 206 estudiantes matriculados en 22 escuelas públicas urbanas de alto riesgo. La encuesta medía 30 factores de riesgo y 13 factores protectores en cuatro ámbitos diferentes: la comunidad, la escuela, la familia y los compañeros individuales, además de los niveles de consumo de alcohol o drogas y la delincuencia. Resultados: Cerca de 7,7 por ciento de los adolescentes informaron que pertenecían a una pandilla, 6,8 por ciento, habían sido miembros de una pandilla y 6,2 por ciento lo eran en la actualidad. La participación en una pandilla se asociaba con la percepción de disponibilidad de pistolas, la movilidad residencial, tener padres que aprobaran la conducta antisocial, el inicio temprano de comportamientos antisociales, la intención de consumir drogas, tener compañeros antisociales y tener compañeros consumidores de drogas. Los adolescentes dotados de habilidades sociales, los que creían en un orden moral y los que se relacionaban con compañeros prosociales presentaban de forma significativa menos probabilidades de participación en una pandilla. Además, la probabilidad de participación en una pandilla se incrementaba si aumentaba el número de factores de riesgo. Conclusiones: La prevalencia de la participación en pandillas en los adolescentes de las escuelas públicas de Trinidad y Tabago es aproximadamente la misma que la observada en Estados Unidos, Canadá y Europa occidental, pero es necesario ampliar la investigación. Aunque los factores de riesgo asociados con la participación en pandillas estaban presentes en los cuatro...

Prenatal care in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

Adequacy of prenatal care is assessed in this retrospective analysis of the births occurring in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) from 1986 - 1996. Overall, adequacy of prenatal care has not changed significantly, despite a large increase in population and births. Adequacy was measured by assessing trimester of prenatal care onset as well as total number of visits. 'Adequate' prenatal care, defined as onset of care in 1st or 2nd trimester and at least 7 prenatal clinic visits, was received by less than half of the mothers delivering in the CNMI. Early (1 trimester) prenatal care was received by less than 2 of all mothers. Most indicators of 'adequate' prenatal care are significantly worse in the CNMI than in the U.S. or Guam.

Stillbirths in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

Analysis of the recorded stillbirths at Commonwealth Health Center (CHC) in the CNMI are reported here, together with maternal age, gravidity, parity and ethnicity, prenatal care adequacy, gestational age, birthweight, delivery type and location, and presence of known complicating factors. This report spans an 11 year period from the opening of CHC in 1986 through 1996. Comparison is made to prior reports of aggregate birth trends and prenatal care usage in the CNMI. Ethnicity-specific rates are calculated and compared, and etiologies of CNMI stillbirths are discussed.