Progression of a large syphilis outbreak in rural North Carolina through space and time: Application of a Bayesian Maximum Entropy graphical user interface.

In 2001, the primary and secondary syphilis incidence rate in rural Columbus County, North Carolina was the highest in the nation. To understand the development of syphilis outbreaks in rural areas, we developed and used the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Graphical User Interface (BMEGUI) to map syphilis incidence rates from 1999-2004 in seven adjacent counties in North Carolina. Using BMEGUI, incidence rate maps were constructed for two aggregation scales (ZIP code and census tract) with two approaches (Poisson and simple kriging). The BME maps revealed the outbreak was initially localized in Robeson County and possibly connected to more urban endemic cases in adjacent Cumberland County. The outbreak spread to rural Columbus County in a leapfrog pattern with the subsequent development of a visible low incidence spatial corridor linking Roberson County with the rural areas of Columbus County. Though the data are from the early 2000s, they remain pertinent, as the combination of spatial data with the extensive sexual network analyses, particularly in rural areas gives thorough insights which have not been replicated in the past two decades. These observations support an important role for the connection of micropolitan areas with neighboring rural areas in the spread of syphilis. Public health interventions focusing on urban and micropolitan areas may effectively limit syphilis indirectly in nearby rural areas.

Canine sudden acquired retinal degeneration syndrome: Owner perceptions on the time to vision loss, treatment outcomes, and prognosis for life.

BACKGROUND: Canine sudden acquired retinal degeneration syndrome (SARDS) causes blindness for which there are no proven effective treatments. We aimed to clarify the time to vision loss, treatment response/side effects, and prognosis for life in dogs with SARDS. METHODS: An online questionnaire was administered to owners of dogs with a historical diagnosis of SARDS. Mortality data were compared with a published purebred reference population. Select parameters were analyzed statistically using general linear model with least square means, two-sample t tests, and chi-squared or Fisher's exact tests. RESULTS: Responses from owners that stated that their dog visited an ophthalmologist and had electroretinography performed (n = 434) were analyzed. The majority of owners (65.4%) reported the time from vision disturbance to complete vision loss as <2 weeks; 19.4% reported >4 weeks. Onset of systemic clinical signs to complete vision loss was >4 weeks in 44.5% of responses. A higher proportion of owners reported some vision recovery with combination treatment (14.4%) compared with monotherapy (3.2%, P = .0004). Side effects of treatment were commonly reported. Dogs with SARDS did not have a shorter lifespan than the reference population but had higher incidence of kidney disease (P = .0001) and respiratory disease (P = .0004) at death. CONCLUSIONS: Dogs with SARDS have a rapid onset of vision loss. In the owner's opinion, treatment is unlikely to restore vision and is associated with systemic side effects. The potential for systemic pathologies that arise after SARDS diagnosis warrants further study.