ABSTRACT
The first case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Italy was detected on February the 20th in Lombardy region. Since that date, Lombardy has been the most affected Italian region by the epidemic, and its healthcare system underwent a severe overload during the outbreak. From a public health point of view, therefore, it is fundamental to provide healthcare services with tools that can reveal possible new health system stress periods with a certain time anticipation, which is the main aim of the present study. Moreover, the sequence of law decrees to face the epidemic and the large amount of news generated in the population feelings of anxiety and suspicion. Considering this whole complex context, it is easily understandable how people "overcrowded" social media with messages dealing with the pandemic, and emergency numbers were overwhelmed by the calls. Thus, in order to find potential predictors of possible new health system overloads, we analysed data both from Twitter and emergency services comparing them to the daily infected time series at a regional level. Particularly, we performed a wavelet analysis in the time-frequency plane, to finely discriminate over time the anticipation capability of the considered potential predictors. In addition, a cross-correlation analysis has been performed to find a synthetic indicator of the time delay between the predictor and the infected time series. Our results show that Twitter data are more related to social and political dynamics, while the emergency calls trends can be further evaluated as a powerful tool to potentially forecast new stress periods. Since we analysed aggregated regional data, and taking into account also the huge geographical heterogeneity of the epidemic spread, a future perspective would be to conduct the same analysis on a more local basis.
ABSTRACT
The Coronavirus Disease 19 epidemic is an infectious disease which was declared as a pandemic and hit all the Countries, all over the world, from the beginning of the year 2020. Despite the emergency vigilance plans, in all the Countries, Health Systems experienced a different ratio of lethality, admissions to intensive care units and managing quarantine of positive patients. The aim of this study is to investigate if some health indicators might have been useful to understand the capacity of Italian National Health Service to manage the COVID 19 epidemic. We will compare data in two different Italian regions in the Northern part of Italy (Lombardy and Veneto) with the national data to understand if different health strategies might be significant to explain different patterns of COVID 19 epidemic in Italy. The two regions have two different health policies to face CoViD-2019 epidemic. To face epidemic like this one the answer should be outside hospitals but this means to have general practitioners well-trained and enough healthcare personnel working outside hospitals.
