Performance assessment across different care settings of a heart failure hospitalisation risk-score for type 2 diabetes using administrative claims.

Predicting the risk of cardiovascular complications, in particular heart failure hospitalisation (HHF), can improve the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Most predictive models proposed so far rely on clinical data not available at the higher Institutional level. Therefore, it is of interest to assess the risk of HHF in people with T2D using administrative claims data only, which are more easily obtainable and could allow public health systems to identify high-risk individuals. In this paper, the administrative claims of > 175,000 patients with T2D were used to develop a new risk score for HHF based on Cox regression. Internal validation on the administrative data cohort yielded satisfactory results in terms of discrimination (max AUROC = 0.792, C-index = 0.786) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p value < 0.05). The risk score was then tested on data gathered from two independent centers (one diabetes outpatient clinic and one primary care network) to demonstrate its applicability to different care settings in the medium-long term. Thanks to the large size and broad demographics of the administrative dataset used for training, the proposed model was able to predict HHF without significant performance loss concerning bespoke models developed within each setting using more informative, but harder-to-acquire clinical variables.

General population screening for atrial fibrillation with an automated rhythm-detection blood pressure device.

BACKGROUND: Screening strategies to diagnose previously undetected atrial fibrillation (AF), especially silent AF (SAF), in at-risk populations may help reduce the number of strokes. We prospectively assessed the incidence rate of AF, including SAF, using an automated AF-detection capable sphygmomanometer in the General Practitioner (GP) setting. METHODS: This was a population-based prospective study of unselected general population of ≥65 years without prior AF. Participating GPs were requested, in the period February 2018-April 2019, to record all AF diagnoses including those derived from the AF-detection capable sphygmomanometer and confirmed by 12­lead ECG or ECG Holter in asymptomatic patients. RESULTS: Overall, 14,987 patients assisted by 76 GPs accumulated 16,838 patient-years of follow up. The incidence rate of AF was 2.25% patient-years (95%CI 2.03-2.48). AF was more frequently detected in male, older, overweight, and patients with prior stroke, congestive heart failure, and chronic kidney disease. One in four patients had device-detected SAF (0.56% patient-years, 95%CI 0.46-0.69). Age, overweight, and the number of annual visits, were independent predictors of both SAF and AF. In addition, congestive heart failure, mitral valve disease were independent predictors of AF. Due to the interaction between blood pressure and age the risk of AF increased exponentially after 75 years of age in patients with higher systolic blood pressure values. CONCLUSION: We found a higher than previously reported incidence rate of AF possibly by capturing SAF. Our simple protocol might be feasible in large-scale screening for AF and SAF in routine GP care.

Prevalence of frailty in older people in Veneto (Italy).

Context: Both frailty and multimorbidity are strong predictors of clinical endpoints for older people. In Italy, the interventions targeting chronicity are mainly based on the treatment of diseases: sufficient epidemiological literature is available about these strategies. Less is known about the territorial distribution of the frailty status. Aims: To estimate the prevalence of frailty in older people (65+) and to evaluate the relationship between frailty and multimorbidity. Methods and material: A group of general practitioners working in Veneto (Italy) was enrolled on a voluntary basis. Older individuals were both community dwelling and institutionalized patients, that is, the older people normally followed by Italian general practitioners. A centrally randomized sample was extracted from the pool of physician-assisted elderly. Each doctor evaluated the frailty status through the CSHA Clinical Frailty Scale and the multimorbidity status through the Charlson score (Frailty = CSHA Clinical Frailty Scale's score >4; serious multimorbidity = Charlson score ≥4). Prevalence and its confidence interval (CI) 95% were evaluated through the Agresti's method for proportions. The relation between frailty and multimorbidity was studied through a logistic regression model adjusted for age and sex. Results: Fifty-three physicians were enrolled, whose population of elderly individuals (N = 82919) was highly representative of the population of Veneto. The prevalence of frailty in the randomized sample of 2407 older people was 23.18% (CI 95%: 21.53%-24.91%). Sex was shown to be a strong predictor of frailty (female status OR = 1.58 p < .0001) and multimorbidity was shown to be an independent predictor only for individuals <85 years of age. Conclusions: In Veneto, more than 20% of elderly people are frail. Physicians should pay close attention to frailty and multimorbidity because both are important prognostic factors toward clinical endpoints relevant to territorial care. The CSHA Clinical Frailty Scale (easy and quick) should become part of their professional routine.