ABSTRACT
The yellow-legged or Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) is native to South-East Asia, and is a voracious predator of pollinating insects including honey bees. Since its accidental introduction into South-Western France in 2004, V. velutina has spread to much of western Europe. The presence of V. velutina in Great Britain was first confirmed in September 2016. The likely dynamics following an initial incursion are uncertain, especially the risk of continued spread, and the likely success of control measures. Here we extrapolate from the situation in France to quantify the potential invasion of V. velutina in Great Britain. We find that, without control, V. velutina could colonise the British mainland rapidly, depending upon how the Asian hornet responds to the colder climate in Britain compared to France. The announcement that a second hornet had been discovered in Somerset, increases the chance that the invasion first occurred before 2016. We therefore consider the likely site of first invasion and the probabilistic position of additional founding nests in late 2016 and early 2017. Given the potential dispersion of V. velutina, we conclude that vigilance is required over a large area to prevent the establishment of this threat to the pollinator population.
Subject(s)
Animal Migration , Predatory Behavior , Wasps/classification , Wasps/physiology , Animals , France , Introduced Species , Social Behavior , United KingdomABSTRACT
Asian hornet, Vespa velutina Lepeletier nests were discovered in 2007 in Andernos-les-Bains on the south-west coast of France, 3 years after the first reported sightings in France. The number of nests increased in the commune over the following 7 years, despite local authorities enacting a destruction policy. The nests existed in close proximity to one another leading to a high density of over 10 nests per square kilometre in urban areas. New information on the chosen habitat for nests is presented, and the differences between primary and secondary locations are evident, with primary nests mostly occupying buildings and man-made structures, while secondary nests were found on trees. Using Bayesian inference methods, we fit a basic model to the observational data, which allows us to estimate key demographic parameters. This model fit is highly informative for predicting V. velutina spread and colonisation of other at-risk regions, and suggests that local control has a limited impact on the spread of V. velutina once established within a region.
ABSTRACT
Sentinel sites, where problems can be identified early or investigated in detail, form an important part of planning for exotic disease outbreaks in humans, livestock and plants. Key questions are: how many sentinels are required, where should they be positioned and how effective are they at rapidly identifying new invasions? The sentinel apiary system for invasive honeybee pests and diseases illustrates the costs and benefits of such approaches. Here, we address these issues with two mathematical modelling approaches. The first approach is generic and uses probabilistic arguments to calculate the average number of affected sites when an outbreak is first detected, providing rapid and general insights that we have applied to a range of infectious diseases. The second approach uses a computationally intensive, stochastic, spatial model to simulate multiple outbreaks and to determine appropriate sentinel locations for UK apiaries. Both models quantify the anticipated increase in success of sentinel sites as their number increases and as non-sentinel sites become worse at detection; however, unexpectedly sentinels perform relatively better for faster growing outbreaks. Additionally, the spatial model allows us to quantify the substantial role that carefully positioned sentinels can play in the rapid detection of exotic invasions.
