Joint spatiotemporal modelling reveals seasonally dynamic patterns of Japanese encephalitis vector abundance across India.

Predicting vector abundance and seasonality, key components of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) hazard, is essential to determine hotspots of MBD risk and target interventions effectively. Japanese encephalitis (JE), an important MBD, is a leading cause of viral encephalopathy in Asia with 100,000 cases estimated annually, but data on the principal vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus is lacking. We developed a Bayesian joint-likelihood model that combined information from available vector occurrence and abundance data to predict seasonal vector abundance for C. tritaeniorhynchus (a constituent of JE hazard) across India, as well as examining the environmental drivers of these patterns. Using data collated from 57 locations from 24 studies, we find distinct seasonal and spatial patterns of JE vector abundance influenced by climatic and land use factors. Lagged precipitation, temperature and land use intensity metrics for rice crop cultivation were the main drivers of vector abundance, independent of seasonal, or spatial variation. The inclusion of environmental factors and a seasonal term improved model prediction accuracy (mean absolute error [MAE] for random cross validation = 0.48) compared to a baseline model representative of static hazard predictions (MAE = 0.95), signalling the importance of seasonal environmental conditions in predicting JE vector abundance. Vector abundance varied widely across India with high abundance predicted in northern, north-eastern, eastern, and southern regions, although this ranged from seasonal (e.g., Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal) to perennial (e.g., Assam, Tamil Nadu). One-month lagged predicted vector abundance was a significant predictor of JE outbreaks (odds ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval: 1.52-4.08), highlighting the possible development of vector abundance as a proxy for JE hazard. We demonstrate a novel approach that leverages information from sparse vector surveillance data to predict seasonal vector abundance-a key component of JE hazard-over large spatial scales, providing decision-makers with better guidance for targeting vector surveillance and control efforts.

Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease.

Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens-and the best ways to manage this-remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.

Key opportunities and challenges for the use of big data in migration research and policy.

Migration is one of the defining issues of the 21st century. Better data is required to improve understanding about how and why people are moving, target interventions and support evidence-based migration policy. Big data, defined as large, complex data from diverse sources, is regularly proposed as a solution to help address current gaps in knowledge. The authors participated in a workshop held in London, UK, in July 2019, that brought together experts from the United Nations (UN), humanitarian non-governmental organisations (NGOs), policy and academia to develop a better understanding of how big data could be used for migration research and policy. We identified six key areas regarding the application of big data in migration research and policy: accessing and utilising data; integrating data sources and knowledge; understanding environmental drivers of migration; improving healthcare access for migrant populations; ethical and security concerns around the use of big data; and addressing political narratives. We advocate the need for careful consideration of the challenges faced by the use of big data, as well as increased cross-disciplinary collaborations to advance the use of big data in migration research whilst safeguarding vulnerable migrant communities.

The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease.

More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.

Salmonella Enteritidis ST183: emerging and endemic biotypes affecting western European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and people in Great Britain.

The impacts of hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) Salmonella infection on public health and on animal welfare and conservation are unknown. We isolated Salmonella Enteritidis multi-locus sequence-type (ST)183 from 46/170 (27%) hedgehog carcasses (27 S. Enteritidis phage type (PT)11, 18 of a novel PT66 biotype and one with co-infection of these PTs) and from 6/208 (3%) hedgehog faecal samples (4 PT11, 2 PT66) from across Great Britain, 2012-2015. Whole genome phylogenetic analysis of the hedgehog isolates and ST183 from people in England and Wales found that PT11 and PT66 form two divergent clades. Hedgehog and human isolates were interspersed throughout the phylogeny indicating that infections in both species originate from a common population. PT11 was recovered from hedgehogs across England and Scotland, consistent with endemic infection. PT66 was isolated from Scotland only, possibly indicating a recent emergence event. People infected with ST183 were four times more likely to be aged 0-4 years than people infected by the more common ST11 S. Enteritidis. Evidence for human ST183 infection being non-foodborne included stronger correlation between geographic and genetic distance, and significantly increased likelihood of infection in rural areas, than for ST11. These results are consistent with hedgehogs acting as a source of zoonotic infection.

Emerging fungal pathogen Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola in wild European snakes.

Snake fungal disease (SFD) is an emerging disease of conservation concern in eastern North America. Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola, the causative agent of SFD, has been isolated from over 30 species of wild snakes from six families in North America. Whilst O. ophiodiicola has been isolated from captive snakes outside North America, the pathogen has not been reported from wild snakes elsewhere. We screened 33 carcasses and 303 moulted skins from wild snakes collected from 2010-2016 in Great Britain and the Czech Republic for the presence of macroscopic skin lesions and O. ophiodiicola. The fungus was detected using real-time PCR in 26 (8.6%) specimens across the period of collection. Follow up culture and histopathologic analyses confirmed that both O. ophiodiicola and SFD occur in wild European snakes. Although skin lesions were mild in most cases, in some snakes they were severe and were considered likely to have contributed to mortality. Culture characterisations demonstrated that European isolates grew more slowly than those from the United States, and phylogenetic analyses indicated that isolates from European wild snakes reside in a clade distinct from the North American isolates examined. These genetic and phenotypic differences indicate that the European isolates represent novel strains of O. ophiodiicola. Further work is required to understand the individual and population level impact of this pathogen in Europe.

THE MANAGEMENT OF AN ORAL ANAPLASTIC SARCOMA IN A PYGMY HIPPOPOTAMUS (CHOEROPSIS LIBERIENSIS) USING INTRALESIONAL CHEMOTHERAPY.

An adult female captive pygmy hippopotamus (Choeropsis liberiensis) was diagnosed with an oral anaplastic sarcoma. The tumor was surgically debulked and intralesional chemotherapy with mitomycin C (0.4 mg/cm3 of tumor) and cisplatin (1 mg/cm3 of tumor) was administered. Chemotherapeutic treatment proved difficult due to the risks of repeated anesthetics and unknown drug efficacies. Marked proliferation of the mass was observed during estrus, and chemotherapy was repeated as an experimental treatment to slow tumor progression in order for the animal to remain in the species breeding program. Tumor proliferation was detected during the first trimester of pregnancy; however, in the lactation period, the mass became quiescent. No adverse reactions to chemotherapeutic drugs were observed and the animal continues to be monitored for tumor progression. This is the first report of an anaplastic sarcoma and of chemotherapy use in a pygmy hippopotamus and it highlights logistical considerations for treating neoplasia in this species.

Streptococcus pyogenes Infection in a Free-Living European Hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus).

Streptococcus pyogenes, a common pathogen of humans, was isolated from the carcass of a free-living European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) found in northern England in June 2014. The animal had abscessation of the deep right cervical lymph node, mesenteric lymph nodes and liver. The S. pyogenes strain isolated from the lesions, peritoneal and pleural cavities was characterised as emm 28, which can be associated with invasive disease in humans. This is the first known report of S. pyogenes in a hedgehog and in any free-living wild animal that has been confirmed by gene sequencing. As close associations between wild hedgehogs and people in England are common, we hypothesise that this case might have resulted from anthroponotic infection.