Determining the sources of nutrient flux to water in headwater catchments: Examining the speciation balance to inform the targeting of mitigation measures.

Diffuse water pollution from agriculture (DWPA) is a major environmental concern, with significant adverse impacts on both human and ecosystem health. However, without an appropriate understanding of the multiple factors impacting on water, mitigation measures cannot be targeted. Therefore, this paper addresses this gap in understanding, reporting the hydrochemical monitoring evidence collected from the UK Government's Demonstration Test Catchments (DTC) programme including contrasting chalk and clay/mudstone catchments. We use data collected at daily and sub-daily frequency over multiple sites to address: (1) How does the behaviour of the full range of nitrogen (N) species and phosphorus (P) fractions vary? (2) How do N species and P fractions vary inter- and intra-annually? (3) What do these data indicate about the primary pollution sources? And (4) which diffuse pollution mitigation measures are appropriate in our study landscapes? Key differences in the rates of flux of nutrients were identified, dependent on catchment characteristics. Full N speciation and P fractionation, together with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) enabled identification of the most likely contributing sources in each catchment. Nitrate (NO3-N) was the dominant N fraction in the chalk whereas organic and particulate N comprised the majority of the load in the clay/mudstone catchments. Despite current legislation, orthophosphate (PO4-P) was not found to be the dominant form of P in any of the catchments monitored. The chalk sub-catchments had the largest proportion of inorganic/dissolved organic P (DOP), accompanied by episodic delivery of particulate P (PP). Contrastingly, the clay/mudstone sub-catchments loads were dominated by PP and DOP. Thus, our results show that by monitoring both the inorganic and organic fractions a more complete picture of catchment nutrient fluxes can be determined, and sources of pollution pin-pointed. Ultimately, policy and management to bring nutrient impacts under control will only be successful if a multi-stressor approach is adopted.

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.

Using hysteresis analysis of high-resolution water quality monitoring data, including uncertainty, to infer controls on nutrient and sediment transfer in catchments.

A large proportion of nutrients and sediment is mobilised in catchments during storm events. Therefore understanding a catchment's hydrological behaviour during storms and how this acts to mobilise and transport nutrients and sediment to nearby watercourses is extremely important for effective catchment management. The expansion of available in-situ sensors is allowing a wider range of water quality parameters to be monitored and at higher temporal resolution, meaning that the investigation of hydrochemical behaviours during storms is increasingly feasible. Studying the relationship between discharge and water quality parameters in storm events can provide a valuable research tool to infer the likely source areas and flow pathways contributing to nutrient and sediment transport. Therefore, this paper uses 2 years of high temporal resolution (15/30 min) discharge and water quality (nitrate-N, total phosphorus (TP) and turbidity) data to examine hysteretic behaviour during storm events in two contrasting catchments, in the Hampshire Avon catchment, UK. This paper provides one of the first examples of a study which comprehensively examines storm behaviours for up to 76 storm events and three water quality parameters. It also examines the observational uncertainties using a non-parametric approach. A range of metrics was used, such as loop direction, loop area and a hysteresis index (HI) to characterise and quantify the storm behaviour. With two years of high resolution information it was possible to see how transport mechanisms varied between parameters and through time. This study has also clearly shown the different transport regimes operating between a groundwater dominated chalk catchment versus a surface-water dominated clay catchment. This information, set within an uncertainty framework, means that confidence can be derived that the patterns and relationships thus identified are statistically robust. These insights can thus be used to provide information regarding transport processes and biogeochemical processing within river catchments.