ABSTRACT
Billions of users of mobile phones, social media platforms, and other technologies generate an increasingly large volume of data that has the potential to be leveraged towards solving public health challenges. These and other big data resources tend to be most successful in epidemiological applications when utilized within an appropriate conceptual framework. Here, we demonstrate the importance of assumptions about host mobility in a framework for dynamic modeling of infectious disease spread among districts within a large urban area. Our analysis focused on spatial and temporal variation in the transmission of dengue virus (DENV) during a series of large seasonal epidemics in Lahore, Pakistan during 2011-2014. Similar to many directly transmitted diseases, DENV transmission occurs primarily where people spend time during daytime hours, given that DENV is transmitted by a day-biting mosquito. We inferred spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission under five different assumptions about mobility patterns among ten districts of Lahore: no movement among districts, movement following patterns of geo-located tweets, movement proportional to district population size, and movement following the commonly used gravity and radiation models. Overall, we found that inferences about spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission were highly sensitive to this range of assumptions about intra-urban human mobility patterns, although the three assumptions that allowed for a modest degree of intra-urban mobility all performed similarly in key respects. Differing inferences about transmission patterns based on our analysis are significant from an epidemiological perspective, as they have different implications for where control efforts should be targeted and whether conditions for transmission became more or less favorable over time. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0144-x) contains supplementary material.
ABSTRACT
No studies to date have assessed the quantity of HIV/AIDS-related media on the Internet. We assessed the quantity of language-specific HIV/AIDS Internet-based news coverage, and the correlation between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence. Internet-based HIV/AIDS news articles were queried from Google News Archives for 168 countries, for the year 2007, in the nine most commonly spoken languages worldwide. English, French and Spanish sources had the greatest number of HIV/AIDS-related articles, representing 134,000 (0.70%), 11,200 (0.65%) and 24,300 (0.49%) of all news articles, respectively. A strong association between country-specific HIV/AIDS news coverage and HIV/AIDS prevalence was found, Spearman's rank correlation: 0.6 (P < 0.001). Among countries with elevated HIV/AIDS prevalence (> or =10%), the volume of HIV/AIDS-specific media was highest in Swaziland (15.9%) and Malawi (13.2%), and lowest in South Africa (4.8%) and Namibia (4.9%). Increased media attention should be placed on countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence and limited HIV/AIDS-specific news coverage.
Subject(s)
HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Health Education/methods , Information Dissemination/methods , Internet/statistics & numerical data , United Nations , Global Health , Humans , Language , Prevalence , PublishingABSTRACT
With the recent entry into force of the new International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), there is still significant concern as to whether broad compliance will be feasible given the challenges associated with reporting mechanisms and multilateral coordination.
